scholarly journals Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0260797
Author(s):  
Shade T. Shutters
Keyword(s):  
Skill Acquisition ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Bachelor's Degree ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Labor Skill ◽  
Skill Maintenance ◽  
Demand Shifts ◽  
Low Carbon Energy ◽  
Bureau Of Labor Statistics

While ensuring employment opportunities is critical for global progress and stability, workers are now subject to several disruptive trends, including automation, rapid changes in technology and skill requirements, and transitions to low-carbon energy production. Yet, these trends seem almost insignificant compared to labor impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While much has been written about the pandemic’s short-term impacts, this study analyzes anticipated long-term impacts on the labor force of 2029 by comparing original 2029 labor projections to special COVID-adjusted projections recently published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Results show that future demand for nearly every type of labor skill and knowledge will increase, while the nature of work shifts from physical to more cognitive activities. Of the nearly three million jobs projected to disappear by 2029 due to COVID, over 91% are among workers without a bachelor’s degree. Among workers with a degree demand shifts primarily from business-related degrees to computer and STEM degrees. Results further show that the socialness of labor, which is important for both innovation and productivity, increases in many more industries than it decreases. Finally, COVID will likely accelerate the adoption of teleworking and slightly decrease the rate of workforce automation. These impacts, combined with a shift to more cognitive worker activities, will likely impact the nature of workforce health and safety with less focus on physical injuries and more on illnesses related to sedentary lifestyles. Overall, results suggest that future workers will need to engage more often in training and skill acquisition, requiring life-long learning and skill maintenance strategies.

Foundations for a Low-Carbon Energy System in China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Lee ◽  
Daniel P. Schrag ◽  
Matthew Bunn ◽  
Michael Davidson ◽  
Wei Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Electricity Pricing ◽  
Energy Policies ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

Climate change is a key problem of the 21st century. China, as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has committed to stabilize its current emissions and dramatically increase the share of electricity production from non-fossil fuels by 2030. However, this is only a first step: in the longer term, China needs to aggressively strive to reach a goal of zero-emissions. Through detailed discussions of electricity pricing, electric vehicle policies, nuclear energy policies, and renewable energy policies, this book reviews how near-term climate and energy policies can affect long-term decarbonization pathways beyond 2030, building the foundations for decarbonization in advance of its realization. Focusing primarily on the electricity sector in China - the main battleground for decarbonization over the next century – it provides a valuable resource for researchers and policymakers, as well as energy and climate experts.

scholarly journals Analysis of Potential for Critical Metal Resource Constraints in the International Energy Agency’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Energy Scenarios

Minerals ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuma Watari ◽  
Benjamin McLellan ◽  
Seiichi Ogata ◽  
Tetsuo Tezuka
Keyword(s):  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Critical Metal ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

scholarly journals Research on Prediction Model for Durability of Straw Bale Walls in Warm (Humid) Continental Climate—A Case Study in Northeast China

Materials ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 3007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xunzhi Yin ◽  
Qi Dong ◽  
Mike Lawrence ◽  
Daniel Maskell ◽  
Jiaqi Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Carbon ◽  
Isothermal Model ◽  
Hygrothermal Environment ◽  
Low Carbon Energy ◽  
Straw Bale Walls ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Straw Bale ◽  
Continental Climate

This research analyses straw degradation inside straw bale walls in the region and develops the prediction of degradation inside straw bale walls. The results show that the straw inside straw bale walls have no serious concerns of degradation in the high hygrothermal environment in the region with only moderate concerns of degradation in the area 2–3 cm deep behind the lime render. The onsite investigations indicate that the degradation isopleth model can only predict straw conditions behind the rendering layer, whereas the isothermal model fits the complete situation inside straw bale walls. This research develops the models for predicting straw degradation levels inside a straw bale building in a warm (humid) continental climate. The impact of this research will help the growth of low carbon energy efficient straw bale construction with confidence pertaining to its long-term durability characteristics both in the region and regions sharing similar climatic features globally.

scholarly journals Exploring the Impact of a District Sharing Strategy on Application Capacity and Carbon Emissions for Heating and Cooling with GSHP Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (16) ◽  
pp. 5543
Author(s):  
Yi Zhang ◽  
He Qi ◽  
Yu Zhou ◽  
Zhonghua Zhang ◽  
Xi Wang
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
Ground Source ◽  
Sharing Strategy ◽  
Low Carbon Energy ◽  
The Impact

To meet long-term climate change targets, the way that heating and cooling are generated and distributed has to be changed to achieve a supply of affordable, secure and low-carbon energy for all buildings and infrastructures. Among the possible renewable sources of energy, ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems can be an effective low-carbon solution that is compatible with district heating and cooling in urban areas. There are no location restrictions for this technology, and underground energy sources are stable for long-term use. According to a previous study, buildings in urban areas have demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity in terms of their capacity to demand (C/D) ratio under the application of GSHP due to variations in heating demand and available space. If a spatial sharing strategy can be developed to allow the surplus geothermal capacity to be shared with neighbors, the heating and cooling demands of a greater number of buildings in an area can be satisfied, thus achieving a city with lower carbon emissions. In this study, a GSHP district system model was developed with a specific embedding sharing strategy for the application of GSHP. Two sharing strategies were proposed in this study: (i) Strategy 1 involved individual systems with borehole sharing, and (ii) Strategy 2 was a central district system. Three districts in London were selected to compare the performance of the developed models on the C/D ratio, required borehole number and carbon emissions. According to the comparison analysis, both strategies were able to enhance the GSHP application capacity and increase the savings of carbon emissions. However, the improvement levels were shown to be different. A greater number of building types and a higher variety in building types with larger differentiation in heating and cooling demands can contribute to a better district sharing performance. In addition, it was found that these two sharing strategies were applicable to different kinds of districts.

scholarly journals Assessing Global Long-Term EROI of Gas: A Net-Energy Perspective on the Energy Transition

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 5112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis Delannoy ◽  
Pierre-Yves Longaretti ◽  
David. J. Murphy ◽  
Emmanuel Prados
Keyword(s):  
Energy Production ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Energy Return On Investment ◽  
Gross Energy ◽  
Low Carbon Energy ◽  
Standard Energy

Natural gas is expected to play an important role in the coming low-carbon energy transition. However, conventional gas resources are gradually being replaced by unconventional ones and a question remains: to what extent is net-energy production impacted by the use of lower-quality energy sources? This aspect of the energy transition was only partially explored in previous discussions. To fill this gap, this paper incorporates standard energy-return-on-investment (EROI) estimates and dynamic functions into the GlobalShift bottom-up model at a global level. We find that the energy necessary to produce gas (including direct and indirect energy and material costs) corresponds to 6.7% of the gross energy produced at present, and is growing at an exponential rate: by 2050, it will reach 23.7%. Our results highlight the necessity of viewing the energy transition through the net-energy prism and call for a greater number of EROI studies.

scholarly journals Benefits of the multi-modality formulation in hydrogen supply chain modelling

2022 ◽  
Vol 334 ◽  
pp. 02003
Author(s):  
Federico Parolin ◽  
Paolo Colbertaldo ◽  
Stefano Campanari
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Gas Network ◽  
Hydrogen Supply ◽  
Production Technologies ◽  
Hydrogen Supply Chain ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

Hydrogen is recognized as a key element of future low-carbon energy systems. For proper integration, an adequate delivery infrastructure will be required, to be deployed in parallel to the electric grid and the gas network. This work adopts an optimization model to support the design of a future hydrogen delivery infrastructure, considering production, storage, and transport up to demand points. The model includes two production technologies, i.e., steam reforming with carbon capture and PV-fed electrolysis systems, and three transport modalities, i.e., pipelines, compressed hydrogen trucks, and liquid hydrogen trucks. This study compares a multi-modality formulation, in which the different transport technologies are simultaneously employed and their selection is optimized, with a mono-modality formulation, in which a single transport technology is considered. The assessment looks at the regional case study of Lombardy in Italy, considering a long-term scenario in which an extensive hydrogen supply chain is developed to supply hydrogen for clean mobility. Results show that the multi-modality infrastructure provides significant cost benefits, yielding an average cost of hydrogen that is up to 11% lower than a mono-modality configuration.

scholarly journals Sustainable Development and Digitalization: The Unusual COVID-19 Crisis Requires Original Solutions

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 91-114
Author(s):  
Tatyana Lanshina ◽  
◽  
Vera Barinova ◽  
Andrei Kondratiev ◽  
Mikhail Romantsov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Green Economy ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Green Component ◽  
Low Carbon Energy ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Policy Proposals

This article provides a content analysis of over 20 policy proposals for coping with the COVID-19 crisis that have been published by influential international organizations, governments, corporations, academics and civil society groups. The current situation, the role of digitalization during the crisis, and the composition of anti-crisis measures already taken by the world’s largest economies are investigated, and long-term measures are proposed aimed at restoring the global economy and moving toward more equitable and sustainable development.The authors identify a significant green component in public policy proposals published since the pandemic began and note that many proposals relate to equity and inclusiveness in development and meeting the needs of individuals. The authors further identify key areas of sustainable development that require action in the near future and which can create new opportunities for economic development: renewable energy and clean transport, cyclical economy, digitalization and environmental protection. At the same time, it is noted that the transition to a green economy is of a long-term nature and may conflict with the need in the short term to support the economy in overcoming the crisis.These priority areas for government action require attention within the framework of Russia’s anti-crisis policy. Given the sharp drop in oil prices, the acceleration of digitalization and decarbonization, and the magnitude of the 2020 economic crisis, Russia needs to begin an accelerated transition to low-carbon energy, a cyclical economy and the restoration of its ecosystems with accelerated digitalization.

scholarly journals Could China's Long-term Low-carbon Energy Transformation Achieve the Double Dividend Effect for the Economy and Environment?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling He ◽  
Bangpei Wang ◽  
Wanting Xu ◽  
Qi Cui ◽  
Hao Chen
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Double Dividend ◽  
Energy Structure ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Energy Transformation ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Energy Substitution ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

Abstract Achieving low-carbon energy transformation is vital for coordinating economic growth and environmental improvement to satisfy the carbon emissions peak and carbon neutrality targets. Existing studies, however, have been dominated by the mere exploration of the low-carbon transformation pathway with little consideration of the importance of energy substitution in low-carbon transformation. Doing so is believably unable to gain the double dividend effect for the economy and environment. Accordingly, this paper develops three energy-target scenarios, taking into account energy structure, electrification level, and carbon mitigation targets by 2030 announced by the Chinese government. A dynamic multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model, CHINAGEM, is employed to examine the economic and environmental effects under different pathways of long-term low-carbon transformation. Firstly, we detect that China's primary energy consumption and electricity production structure would substantially transfer to low-carbon and clean along with all three energy-target scenarios. Secondly, due to the anticipated decline of fossil energy consumption, especially coal consumption, China's CO2, SO2, and NOX emissions in 2020-2030 would also possibly vastly abate with all the scenarios. Besides, it is highly conceivable for China to achieve its peak carbon emission of 12.4 GtCO2 in 2028 if it serves the comparatively more stringent low-carbon transformation pathways. Lastly, different pathways would also produce varying positive impacts on China's macro-economy and achieve the different extent of double dividend effects. The research concludes with a recommendation of tentative improvement policies towards low-carbon transformation under the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, including promoting energy substitution, renewable energy development, and low-carbon technologies.

scholarly journals Modeling of Persistence, Non-Acceptance and Sufficiency in Long-Term Energy Scenarios for Germany

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 4484
Author(s):  
Christoph Kost ◽  
Julian Brandes ◽  
Charlotte Senkpiel ◽  
Philip Sterchele ◽  
Daniel Wrede ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy System ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Energy System Model ◽  
Term Energy ◽  
Quantitative Results ◽  
Climate Neutrality ◽  
Low Carbon Energy ◽  
Direct Use

Long-term transition pathways to a low-carbon energy system are analysed by applying the energy system model REMod. All in all, the paper contributes to the current research through an innovative scenario approach, using assumptions for societal trends and quantitative results for scenarios, analysing the paths towards climate neutrality and defossilization in 2050. In the case study of Germany, these trends and drivers influence the results and the technology composition in each consumption sector (buildings, transport, and industry). Across all scenarios, it can be observed that the electrification of all sectors is important for the defossilization of the energy system, as the direct use of electricity from renewable energy is more efficient than the consumption of carbon-neutral synthetic energy carriers. However, different consumer behavior (e.g., non-acceptance or resistance against specific technologies) influences not only the efficient use of (green) electricity, it also changes the optimal pathways of the transition to paths with greater efforts. One potential societal trend—sufficiency—could be an important cornerstone for reaching the targets, as the required expansion and exchange of technologies are lower and thus facilitate the transition.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document