scholarly journals Crisis propagation in a heterogeneous self-reflexive DSGE model

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0261423
Author(s):  
Federico Morelli ◽  
Michael Benzaquen ◽  
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud ◽  
Marco Tarzia

We study a self-reflexive DSGE model with heterogeneous households, aimed at characterising the impact of economic recessions on the different strata of the society. Our framework allows to analyse the combined effect of income inequalities and confidence feedback mediated by heterogeneous social networks. By varying the parameters of the model, we find different crisis typologies: loss of confidence may propagate mostly within high income households, or mostly within low income households, with a rather sharp transition between the two. We find that crises are more severe for segregated networks (where confidence feedback is essentially mediated between agents of the same social class), for which cascading contagion effects are stronger. For the same reason, larger income inequalities tend to reduce, in our model, the probability of global crises. Finally, we are able to reproduce a perhaps counter-intuitive empirical finding: in countries with higher Gini coefficients, the consumption of the lowest income households tends to drop less than that of the highest incomes in crisis times.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuliano Russo ◽  
Maria Luiza Levi Paim ◽  
Maria Teresa Seabra Soares de Britto e Alves ◽  
Bruno Luciano Carneiro Alves de Oliveira ◽  
Ruth Helena de Souza Britto Ferreira de Carvalho ◽  
...  

Background. Economic recessions carry an impact on population health and access to care; less is known on how health systems adapt to the conditions brought by a downturn. This particularly matters now that the COVID-19 epidemic is putting health systems under stress. Brazil is one of the world’s most affected countries, and its health system was already living the aftermath of the 2015 recession. Methods. Between 2018 and 2019 we conducted 46 semi-structured interviews with health practitioners, managers and policy-makers to explore the impact of the 2015 recession on public and private providers in prosperous (São Paulo) and impoverished (Maranhão) states in Brazil. Thematic analysis was employed to identify drivers and consequences of system adaptation and coping strategies. Nvivo software was used to aid data collection and analysis. We followed the Standards for Reporting Qualitative Research to provide an account of the findings.Results. We found the concept of ‘health sector crisis’ to be politically charged among healthcare providers in São Paulo and Maranhão. Contrary to expectations, the public sector was reported to have found ways to compensate for diminishing federal funding, having outsourced services and adopted flexible – if insecure – working arrangements. Following a drop in employment and health plans, private health insurance companies streamlined their offer, at times at the expenses of coverage. Low-cost walk-in clinics were hit hard by the recession, but also credited for having moved to cater for higher-income customers in Maranhão.Conclusions. The ‘plates’ of a health system may shift and adjust in unexpected ways in response to recessions, and some of these changes might outlast the crisis. As low-income countries enter post-COVID recessions, it will be important to monitor the adjustments taking place in health systems, to ensure that past gains in access to care and job security are not eroded.


2014 ◽  
Vol 84 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 244-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Karp ◽  
Gary Wong ◽  
Marguerite Orsi

Abstract. Introduction: Foods dense in micronutrients are generally more expensive than those with higher energy content. These cost-differentials may put low-income families at risk of diminished micronutrient intake. Objectives: We sought to determine differences in the cost for iron, folate, and choline in foods available for purchase in a low-income community when assessed for energy content and serving size. Methods: Sixty-nine foods listed in the menu plans provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for low-income families were considered, in 10 domains. The cost and micronutrient content for-energy and per-serving of these foods were determined for the three micronutrients. Exact Kruskal-Wallis tests were used for comparisons of energy costs; Spearman rho tests for comparisons of micronutrient content. Ninety families were interviewed in a pediatric clinic to assess the impact of food cost on food selection. Results: Significant differences between domains were shown for energy density with both cost-for-energy (p < 0.001) and cost-per-serving (p < 0.05) comparisons. All three micronutrient contents were significantly correlated with cost-for-energy (p < 0.01). Both iron and choline contents were significantly correlated with cost-per-serving (p < 0.05). Of the 90 families, 38 (42 %) worried about food costs; 40 (44 %) had chosen foods of high caloric density in response to that fear, and 29 of 40 families experiencing both worry and making such food selection. Conclusion: Adjustments to USDA meal plans using cost-for-energy analysis showed differentials for both energy and micronutrients. These differentials were reduced using cost-per-serving analysis, but were not eliminated. A substantial proportion of low-income families are vulnerable to micronutrient deficiencies.


2001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trish Livingstone ◽  
Lisa Lix ◽  
Mary McNutt ◽  
Evan Morris ◽  
William Osei ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 525
Author(s):  
Idawati Idawati

This research was conducted by using a descriptive method with a quantitative approach. The quantitative approach was chosen to be tested theories by examining and measuring variables in the form of relationships, differences, influences, contributions, and the others. The research was carried out by describing the students acquisition data on the new student admission (PPDB) using zoning system based on the academic year 2019-2020 and the student acquisition data on the academic year PPDB 2018-2019 as a comparison. Based on the results of the study, the new students of PPDB using zoning system was considered lower in terms of economic and educational background of parents. There were more parents with less education (elementary & junior high school) in the zoning system than in the rayon system, whereas parents with higher education in the zoning system were fewer than the rayon system.  Likewise, in terms of income, there were more people with the low income in the zoning system than in the rayon system, and those having high income were fewer than in the rayon system. The study showed that the intelligence and the result of National Examination Score (NUN) in the zoning system is lower than in the rayon system. The intelligent level of the students in the zoning system is mostly dominated by the scores under 90-109, while in the rayon system were dominated by the scores above 90-109.  The National Examination Scores (NUN) in the zoning system were evenly distributed from a range of scores 0 to 30, while in the rayon system the scores were dominated by a range of scores 28-30, with the lowest score 24.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Sally N. Youssef

Women’s sole internal migration has been mostly ignored in migration studies, and the concentration on migrant women has been almost exclusively on low-income women within the household framework. This study focuses on middleclass women’s contemporary rural-urban migration in Lebanon. It probes into the determinants and outcomes of women’s sole internal migration within the empowerment framework. The study delves into the interplay of the personal, social, and structural factors that determine the women’s rural-urban migration as well as its outcomes. It draws together the lived experiences of migrant women to explore the determinants of women’s internal migration as well as the impact of migration on their expanded empowerment.


The rural non-farm sector (RNFS) involves a spectrum of economic activity in rural areas and encompasses all rural productive entities other than farm holdings. It has the potential to play a pivotal role in holistic and inclusive development of India’s rural areas by increasing the employment and wages of rural labour, which can reduce income inequalities. The review was carried out in order to explain the present status of RNFE state wise as well as overall to get a comprehensive view on the topic. The review study also focuses to disaggregate RNFE on the basis of gender, size of landholding and castes. Literature depicting the impact of RNFE on rural livelihoods especially in employment and poverty and factors determining it also been compiled to get an overall idea on the study.


2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
Towaf Totok Irawan

Until now the government and private sector have not been able to address the backlog of 13.5 million housing units for ownership status and 7.6 million units for residential status. The high price of land has led to the high price of the house so that low-income communities (MBR) is not able to reach out to make a home purchase. In addition to the high price of land, tax factors also contribute to the high price of the house. The government plans to issue a policy for the provision of tax incentives, ie abolish VAT on home-forming material transaction. This policy is expected to house prices become cheaper, so the demand for housing increases, and encourage the relevant sectors to intensify its role in the construction of houses. It is expected to replace the lost tax potential and increase incomes. Analysis of the impact of tax incentives housing to potential state revenue and an increase in people's income, especially in Papua province is using the table IO because in addition to looking at the role each sector can also see the impact on taxes (income tax 21 Pph 25 Pph, VAT), and incomes (wage). Although in the short-term impact is still small, but very rewarding in the long run. Keywords: Backlog, Gross Input, Primary Input, Intermediate Input


2007 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian Chow ◽  
Grace Yoo ◽  
Catherine Vu

The passage of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act (PRWORA) of 1996 has major implications for low-income Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) populations. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the research currently examining the impact of welfare reform on AAPI recipients and the welfare-to-work services available to this population. This article highlights AAPI participation and their timing-out rates in California’s CalWORKs program and their barriers to transitioning to work. Four welfare-to-work program models and recommendations are presented to illustrate strategies that can be used to address the unique needs of AAPI in order to alleviate their high risk for timing-out: one-stop-shops, transitional jobs programs, providing comprehensive and family focused services, and additional research and evaluation of programs specific to assisting the AAPI population on CalWORKs.


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