The Costs of Reduction Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation. Concepts and Issues

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Tri WALUYO ◽  
Kumba DIGDOWISEISO ◽  
El Amry Bermawi PUTERA ◽  
Eko SUGIYANTO
Keyword(s):  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Forest Degradation ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Opportunity Costs ◽  
Double Counting ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Counting Problem ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Implementation Costs

This study examines the concept of “Reduction Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation” - REDD costs by using the existence costs of Boucher (2008) such as opportunity costs, transaction costs, implementation costs, stabilization costs, and administration costs. In addition, it provides some actual issues of REDD. The study proves that global simulation models yield far higher REDD prices than empirical models, however, they can be criticized for their use of aggregated data and other simplifications. Moreover, adding implementation, administration, stabilization costs into transaction costs could potentially lead to double-counting problem. Finally, REDD is an inexpensive option compared to reducing emissions in the energy sectors of industrialized countries and has a potential to generate substantial benefits in addition to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, it is important for countries to manage these issues that can be potentially defect REDD adoption.

scholarly journals ABWiSE v1.0: Toward and Agent-Based Approach to Simulating Wildfire Spread

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Katan ◽  
Liliana Perez
Keyword(s):  
Human Life ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Fire Front ◽  
Wildfire Simulation ◽  
Behaviour Simulation

Abstract. Wildfires are a complex phenomenon emerging from interactions between air, heat, and vegetation, and while they are an important component of many ecosystems’ dynamics, they pose great danger to those ecosystems, and human life and property. Wildfire simulation models are an important research tool that help further our understanding of fire behaviour and can allow experimentation without recourse to live fires. Current fire simulation models fit into two general categories: empirical models and physical models. We present a new modelling approach that uses agent-based modelling to combine the complexity found in physical models with the ease of computation of empirical models. Our model represents the fire front as a set of moving agents that respond to, and interact with, vegetation, wind, and terrain. We calibrate the model using two simulated fires and one real fire, and validate the model against another real fire and the interim behaviour of the real calibration fire. Our model successfully replicates these fires, with a Figure of Merit on par with simulations by the Prometheus simulation model. Our model is a stepping-stone in using agent-based modelling for fire behaviour simulation, as we demonstrate the ability of agent-based modelling to replicate fire behaviour through emergence alone.

scholarly journals Assessing potential cures: are there distinctive elements of value beyond health gain?

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 255-265
Author(s):  
Saskia Hendriks ◽  
Steven D Pearson
Keyword(s):  
Health Technology Assessment ◽  
Technology Assessment ◽  
Health Gain ◽  
Health Technology ◽  
Opportunity Costs ◽  
Double Counting ◽  
Deliberative Process ◽  
Potential Opportunity

Assessing the ‘value’ of potential cures can be challenging, as some have suggested that cures may offer distinctive benefits from noncurative treatments. We explore what these – previously unspecified – additional benefits may be. We suggest that three new elements of value seem distinctive to cures: liberation from the identity of being diseased, liberation from the stigma associated with the disease and liberation from the burden of ongoing therapy. However, including additional elements of value in health technology assessment may result in double counting and requires consideration of potential opportunity costs. We suggest health technology assessment should explore the relevance of these three elements of value and may have good reasons to – judiciously – integrate them through the deliberative process.

scholarly journals A Nested Land Uses–Landscapes–Livelihoods Approach to Assess the Real Costs of Land-Use Transitions: Insights from Southeast Asia

Land ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillaume Lestrelin ◽  
Jean-Christophe Castella ◽  
Qiaohong Li ◽  
Thoumthone Vongvisouk ◽  
Nguyen Dinh Tien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Forest Degradation ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Opportunity Costs ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Forested Areas ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change ◽  
The Cost

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is viewed as an effective way to mitigate climate change by compensating stewards of forested areas for minimizing forestland conversion and protecting forest services. Opportunity costs assess the cost of foregone opportunity when preserving the forest instead of investing in an alternative activity or resource use. This paper questions the calculation method of opportunity costs using averaged economic benefits and co-benefits of different land-use transitions. We propose a nested approach to land-use transitions at the interface between landscapes and livelihoods and assessing a wide range of potential socio-ecological costs and benefits. Combining household surveys and focus groups with participatory mapping, we applied the approach in villages of Laos, Vietnam and China positioned along a broad transition trajectory from subsistence shifting cultivation to intensive commercial agriculture. By looking beyond the economics of land use, we highlight important linkages between land-use changes and livelihood differentiation, vulnerability and inequalities. Our results show the importance of addressing the impacts of land-use transitions on a wide range of potential ecological and socioeconomic costs and benefits at multiple levels.

scholarly journals Parametrization of Models and Use of Estimated Global Solar Radiation Data in the Irrigated Rice Yield Simulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 238-246
Author(s):  
João Rodrigo de Castro ◽  
Santiago Vianna Cuadra ◽  
Luciana Barros Pinto ◽  
João Marcelo Hoffmann de Souza ◽  
Marcos Paulo dos Santos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Potential Yield ◽  
Irrigated Rice ◽  
Radiation Data ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of estimated global solar radiation data in the simulations of potential yield of irrigated rice. Global solar radiation was estimated by four empirical models, based on air temperature, and a meteorological satellite derivated. The empirical models were calibrated and validated for 10 sites, representative of the six rice regions of the State of Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil. To evaluate the impact of the radiation estimates on irrigated rice yield simulations, the CERES-Rice model, calibrated for four cultivars, was used. The estimates of global solar radiation of the empirical models based on the air temperature showed deviations, from the observed values, of 20 to 30% and the estimated by satellite deviations of more than 30%. The global solar radiation data estimated by the Hargreaves and Samani, Donatelli and Campbell and derived satellite (PowerNasa) type air temperature-based empirical models can be used as input data in simulation models of crop growth, development and productivity of irrigated rice.

scholarly journals Criteria to Confirm Models that Simulate Deforestation and Carbon Disturbance

Land ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Pontius
Keyword(s):  
Figure Of Merit ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Forest Degradation ◽  
Random Allocation ◽  
Calibration Period ◽  
Mathematical Properties

The Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) recommends the Figure of Merit (FOM) as a possible metric to confirm models that simulate deforestation baselines for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD). The FOM ranges from 0% to 100%, where larger FOMs indicate more-accurate simulations. VCS requires that simulation models achieve a FOM greater than or equal to the percentage deforestation during the calibration period. This article analyses FOM’s mathematical properties and illustrates FOM’s empirical behavior by comparing various models that simulate deforestation and the resulting carbon disturbance in Bolivia during 2010–2014. The Total Operating Characteristic frames FOM’s mathematical properties as a function of the quantity and allocation of simulated deforestation. A leaf graph shows how deforestation’s quantity can be more influential than its allocation when simulating carbon disturbance. Results expose how current versions of the VCS methodologies could conceivably permit models that are less accurate than a random allocation of deforestation, while simultaneously prohibit models that are accurate concerning carbon disturbance. Conclusions give specific recommendations to improve the next version of the VCS methodology concerning three concepts: the simulated deforestation quantity, the required minimum FOM, and the simulated carbon disturbance.

scholarly journals Erratum to: Consistent LDA’ + DMFT—an Unambiguous Way to Avoid Double Counting Problem: NiO Test

JETP Letters ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (5) ◽  
pp. 345-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. A. Nekrasov ◽  
N. S. Pavlov ◽  
M. V. Sadovskii
Keyword(s):  
Double Counting ◽  
Counting Problem

No mere tautology: the division of labour is limited by the division of labour

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Smyth ◽  
Bart J Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Theory Of The Firm ◽  
Division Of Labour ◽  
Increasing Returns ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Opportunity Costs ◽  
Treatment Conditions ◽  
New Ideas

Abstract We explore the intersection of growth theory and the theory of the firm with an experiment. Economic growth is possible in our experiment when agents specialize to exploit increasing returns. We find that low opportunity costs are sufficient for Marshallian internal economies, but that Marshallian external economies are slow to emerge in four probing treatment conditions. Transaction costs do not hamper external economies as we anticipated prior to collecting data. When external economies falter, it is because new ideas of more extensive specialization fail to emerge. Ideas make further divisions of the division of labour—and thus economic growth—possible. Conversely, a lack of ideas make further divisions of labour and economic growth impossible. Our data reveal how the likelihood of new ideas is inseparably tied to the existing extent of specialization.

scholarly journals Costs and Carbon Sequestration Assessment for REDD+ in Indonesia

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 770
Author(s):  
Guifang Liu ◽  
Qing Liu ◽  
Mengxiao Song ◽  
Junsheng Chen ◽  
Chuanrong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Sequestration ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Oil Palm ◽  
Forest Degradation ◽  
Opportunity Costs ◽  
Forest Conversion ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Sensitivity Assessment ◽  
Gain Loss

Research Highlights: Our findings highlight that the contribution of carbon sequestration from plantations to REDD+ will remain limited, and that opportunity costs in Southeast Asia will likely increase, due to future oil palm expansion. Background and Objectives: Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) are significant sources of carbon emissions. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed that the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Plus program, also known as REDD+, could contribute to carbon sinks in tropical regions. These reductions could serve as carbon credits that offset emissions from other sources. Materials and Methods: This study uses the cellular automaton technique to simulate the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and the gain-loss method, to measure carbon emissions resulting from forest conversion. The output of the integration of the models makes it possible to evaluate one of the most important financial costs: opportunity costs. Two scenarios (with and without consideration of carbon sequestration) in rubber and oil palm plantations are examined. Results: A sensitivity assessment in Kalimantan, Indonesia, shows that carbon sequestration from plantations affects value of opportunity costs less than social discount rates. Further analysis suggests that oil palm plantations have a greater impact than rubber plantations. Conclusions: Our study provides a case that can be applied to other regions for evaluating the impacts of plantation carbon sequestration, and insights that can help local policymakers design a financially attractive REDD+ program in other forest areas of the world.

scholarly journals Erratum: Implementation and opportunity costs of reducing deforestation and forest degradation in Tanzania

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 224-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brendan Fisher ◽  
Simon L. Lewis ◽  
Neil D. Burgess ◽  
Rogers E. Malimbwi ◽  
Panteleo K. Munishi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Degradation ◽  
Opportunity Costs

scholarly journals An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (23) ◽  
pp. 9334-9347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma B. Suckling ◽  
Leonard A. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Regular Component ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Operational Forecasts ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Global Mean

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the skill of these models not only with each other but also with empirical models can reveal the space and time scales on which simulation models exploit their physical basis effectively and quantify their ability to add information to operational forecasts. The skill of decadal probabilistic hindcasts for annual global-mean and regional-mean temperatures from the EU Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project is contrasted with several empirical models. Both the ENSEMBLES models and a “dynamic climatology” empirical model show probabilistic skill above that of a static climatology for global-mean temperature. The dynamic climatology model, however, often outperforms the ENSEMBLES models. The fact that empirical models display skill similar to that of today's state-of-the-art simulation models suggests that empirical forecasts can improve decadal forecasts for climate services, just as in weather, medium-range, and seasonal forecasting. It is suggested that the direct comparison of simulation models with empirical models becomes a regular component of large model forecast evaluations. Doing so would clarify the extent to which state-of-the-art simulation models provide information beyond that available from simpler empirical models and clarify current limitations in using simulation forecasting for decision support. Ultimately, the skill of simulation models based on physical principles is expected to surpass that of empirical models in a changing climate; their direct comparison provides information on progress toward that goal, which is not available in model–model intercomparisons.

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