scholarly journals PEMODELAN INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA PROVINSI JAWA BARAT, JAWA TIMUR DAN JAWA TENGAH TAHUN 2019 DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE REGRESI LOGISTIK ORDINAL

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 149-158
Author(s):  
Meylita Sari ◽  
Purhadi Purhadi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Classification Accuracy ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Ordinal Logistic Regression ◽  
Predictor Variables ◽  
Clean Water ◽  
Economic Growth Rate

Ordinal logistic regression is one of the statistical methods to analyze response variables (dependents) that have an ordinal scale consisting of three or more categories. Predictor variables (independent) that can be included in the model are category or continuous data consisting of two or more  variables. Human Development Index (HDI) is an indicator of the success of human development in a region and can be categorized into medium, high and very high. Based on the further categorization, in this study would like to know more about the HDI model using the Ordinal Logistic Regression method, with predictor variables that are suspected to affect, so that it is obtained in West Java Province is influenced by variable poverty rates and clean water sources with a classification accuracy value of 77.78%, Central Java Province is influenced by variable economic growth rate based on constant price GDP, poverty rate and open unemployment rate with a classification accuracy value of 82.85%. East Java province is influenced by variable poverty rate and open unemployment rate with a classification accuracy value of 76.31%. As well as in the three provinces in Java Island is influenced by variable economic growth rate, variable poverty rate, variable clean water source with a classification accuracy value of 73%. Keywords : Ordinal Logistic Regression, HDI, Classification Accuracy

scholarly journals PENDEKATAN TEORITIS ANALISIS SUMBER-SUMBER INFLASI

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Jonni Manurung
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
Supply Shock ◽  
Food Inflation

The Theory Approach of Inflation Determinant Analysis has the goal to identify the sources of inflation and finding the alternative policy strategy to stabilizing the inflation. According to the inflation decomposition, the source of inflation is core or underlying inflation, noncore inflation, and noise inflation. According to the expected-augmented Phillips curve, the deviation of inflation to the expected inflation is sourced from supply shocks, the deviation of economic growth rate to the natural rate, and the deviation of unemployment rate to the natural rate. According to the dynamic monetary policy inconsistent, inflation is sourced from inflation target, the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate, the deviation of unemployment rate to natural rate, and supply shock. According to the credibility monetary policy, inflation is sourced from expected inflation and the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate. According to the inflation composition, the deviation of inflation to expected inflation is sourced from noncore inflation and noise inflation. So that the relation between the expected-augmented Phillips curvel, the dynamic monetary policy inconsistent, and the credibility monetary policy is show that the noncore inflation and the noise inflation determined by the deviation of economic growth rate to natural rate, the deviation of unemployment rate to natural rate, and supply shock. The conclution of this theory is show that the equilibrium in economic growth target and economic growth to natural rate, unemployment rate to natural rate is create the equilibrium in inflation and expected inflation. So the alternative policy stategy is increase in economic growth to the natural rate or decrease unemployment rate to the natural rate. From the side of inflation decomposition, increase in economic growth to the natural rate or decrease in unemployment rate to the natural rate is the same to maintaine the stabilizing in administered inflation, volatile food inflation, and traded goods inflation. From the side monetary policy, the stabilizing in volatile food inflation and traded goods inflation is created if increasing in monetary growth directed to small and medium business, because the small and medium business is absorpt more employment than the big business. From the side fiscal policy, the stabilizing in administered inflation is created if the government can eliminate the corruption in government projects. Eliminating the corruption in government projects will eliminate increase in price of strategic commodities, and it increase in social welfare.

scholarly journals Determinants of Inflation in Palestine

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 68-93
Author(s):  
Bahaaeddin Alareeni ◽  
Nariman Qdeh ◽  
Mohammed Lulu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Palestinian Economy

This study aimed at identifing the most important determinants and economic factors affecting inflation rates in the Palestine during the period (2000-2014), in order to help in reducing its effects on the Palestinian economy. The descriptive and analytical approach was used, by selecting a set of variables that were expected to have an impact on the inflation rates in the Palestinian economy, as these factors were such as economic growth rate, interest rate, exchange rate, unemployment rate, money supply, wages, inflation rate in Israel, and the global inflation rate. Two statistical models were developed for West Bank and Gaza Strip separately, based on quarter time series data for determinants of inflation in the Palestinian economy for the period from 2000-2014. The results showed the significatnt impact of: (the exchange rate, the Israeli inflation rate, the economic growth rate) on the inflation rate in the West Bank. In addition, it showed the significant effect of: (global inflation rate, unemployment rate, the economic growth rate) on the inflation rate in Gaza Strip. The other variables: credit facility, wage rate and interest rate were statistically insignificant. In light of this, the study recommended the necessity of issuing a national currency to reduce the losses of the Palestinian economy due to the absence of the national currency, as well as the pressure of imports and trying to find local alternatives by supporting the national product, as well as the need to review trade and economic policies between the Palestinian Authority and Israel to serve the development of the Palestinian economy.

scholarly journals Stress Testing of Banking Systems: an examination against the Shocks of Macroeconomic Variables

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (SPE1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamiar Askari ◽  
Fatemeh Sarraf ◽  
Roya Darabi ◽  
Fatemeh Zandi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Default Rates

In the past years, overdue due receivables of the banks have increased in an unprecedented way compared to all the facilities granted in Iran’s banking network, showing the not very acceptable quality of bank assets that decrease the bank credit and make them financially unstable. The macroeconomic variables in this article are as follow: GDP growth rate, economic growth, exchange rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, government debt. The decrease in this amount of arrears shows the ability of banks to maintain their resources. At this research, after identifying the macroeconomic variables affecting the default of banks using the stress test and applying one standard deviation with the help of the historical scenario, the study examined the banks’ resilience to the shocks of these variables from 2006 to 2019. The results indicated that the shock of the economic growth rate had the greatest effect. In other words, the decrease in the economic growth rate had the greatest effect on the increase of borrowers’ default rates. In addition to this, shocks of economic growth and government debt have highly effect on the borrowers’ default rates and inflation rate, unemployment rate, GDP growth rate and exchange rate have a significant impact upon borrowers’ default rates.

Clustering Countries in the Context of the Pandemic and Underlying Conditions

2022 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Grace Carolina Guevara-Rosero
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
North America ◽  
South America ◽  
High Capacity ◽  
Clean Water ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Government Effectiveness ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
Effectiveness Index

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the state of underlying conditions of countries in terms of health system, sanitary infrastructure, governance, among others. This study aims to classify countries using COVID-19-related variables such as the lethality rate, the contagion growth rate, the stringency index, and underlying conditions of countries directly related to COVID-19 such as access to clean water, hospital beds per 10000 inhabitants, government effectiveness index, population older than 65 years old and economic growth rate. To determine the clusters of a set of countries from all continents (29 from Africa, 35 from Asia, 35 from Europe, 11 from North America, 2 from Oceania and 8 from South America), the k-means partitioning method is used. This approach consists in constructing partitions and evaluate their intra-class and inter-class similarity. Based on the results, three clusters are identified: i. Severely affected countries with high stringency and moderate capacity, ii. Moderately affected countries with moderate stringency and high capacity and iii. Severely affected countries with low stringency but low capacity.

scholarly journals Influence of corruption on economic growth rate and foreign investment

2008 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 547-550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boris Podobnik ◽  
Jia Shao ◽  
Djuro Njavro ◽  
Plamen Ch. Ivanov ◽  
H. E. Stanley
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Economic Growth Rate

Analisis Indikator Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Provinsi Sumatera Barat

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Cempaka Rizki Ambar Sari ◽  
Dela Resina ◽  
Neng Kamarni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Variable Rate ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
West Sumatra ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Interesting Discussion

Poverty is a problem of economic development which is always an interesting discussion. Poverty has an impact on socio-economic burdens, increases in crime, decreases the quality of life, and hinders the creation of superior human resources. The objectives of this study were to 1) analyze the concept and development of poverty in West Sumatra Province; and 2) to analyze the effect of macroeconomic indicators on poverty in West Sumatra Province. The macroeconomic indicators used are Economic Growth Rate based on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) and Human Development Index (HDI). The analytical tool used is multiple linear regression which includes data from 19 districts and cities in West Sumatra Province during the period 2015-2019. From the results of this study, it was found that in general the poverty rate in West Sumatra Province from 2015-2019 continued to decline. The variable rate of economic growth has a positive relationship with the level of poverty in West Sumatra Province. Meanwhile, the HDI variable has a significant effect on the poverty level and has a negative relationship.

External Debts and Economic Growth when Debt Rating Matters

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ly Dai Hung
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Fixed Effect ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

The paper investigates the dependence pattern of economic growth on external debt supply by accounting for the safety of debts, measured by the sovereign debt rating. The method of cross-section regression is based on a sample of 145 advanced and developing economies with averaged data over the 1990–2019 period. The pattern of economic growth follows a U-shaped curve, for which the growth rate is first decreasing and then increasing on the external debt supply. A possible explanation can rely on the sovereign debt rating. For low supply of external debts, more supply of debts reduces the debt rating, which, in turn, lowers the economic growth rate. But for high enough supply of debts, more debts raise their rating, improving the growth rate. These results are robust on controlling for various determinants of economic growth and on the fixed effect panel regression.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF THE STATE SOCIAL POLICY ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE

2010 ◽  
pp. 56-59
Author(s):  
A. N. Ryahovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Social Policy ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
The State ◽  
Special Significance ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
The People ◽  
The Social ◽  
Scientific Justification

As a result of the global financial and economic crisis, social problems have sharpened significantly. They affect the interest of the most population of the country. The efficiency of anti-recessionary measures and their productivity in the social field are analyzed in the article. According to the adjusted estimates of the RF Government, decrease in actual income of the people will continue and only by the end of 2012 a growth by only 3% to 2008 level is projected. The degree of elaboration and scientific justification of the state turnaround policy are getting special significance.

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