scholarly journals Revisiting inflation and growth nexus: an asymmetric cointegration based on Non-linear ARDL approach in case of Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 371-402
Author(s):  
Zobayer Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

Sustainable high economic growth is the major objective of a country. Whereas inflation is one of the critical factors that affect economic development. Growth-inflation nexus is one of the most controversial topics in this present world. This study re-investigates the link between inflation and the economic development of Bangladesh by employing a non-linear autoregressive distributed lagged (NARDL) approach. For this study, we use annual time series data set on the growth rate of per capita gross domestic product, and the inflation rate for the time range from 1986 to 2017. The asymmetric cointegration result based on the NARDL approach shows the confirmation of long-run integration between the GDP growth rate and inflation rate (CPI). The study finds a positive and robust nexus between growth rate and inflation rate. The relationship exists both in the long-run as well as in the short-run. The results also have statistically significant. This study further explores that there is an asymmetric relationship between the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth. The nonlinear ARDL approach shows that the GDP growth rate responds more with an upward change in inflation than that of a downward change. Furthermore, in the short-run, the positive change in inflations has a significant and positive influence on the growth rate. Still, the influence of an adverse change in inflations has statistically insignificant. Both the policymakers of Bangladesh (Bangladesh Bank) and development partners working in the country can be benefited from these results in the context of policy implementation. This study recommends that to boosting up the economic growth in the context of Bangladesh, the inflation rate can be treated as a significant determination.

scholarly journals Revisiting inflation and growth nexus: an asymmetric cointegration based on Non-linear ARDL approach in case of Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-136
Author(s):  
Zobayer Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

Sustainable high economic growth is the major objective of a country. Whereas inflation is one of the critical factors that affect economic development. Growth-inflation nexus is one of the most controversial topics in this present world. This study re-investigates the link between inflation and the economic development of Bangladesh by employing a non-linear autoregressive distributed lagged (NARDL) approach. For this study, we use annual time series data set on the growth rate of per capita gross domestic product, and the inflation rate for the time range from 1986 to 2017. The asymmetric cointegration result based on the NARDL approach shows the confirmation of long-run integration between the GDP growth rate and inflation rate (CPI). The study finds a positive and robust nexus between growth rate and inflation rate. The relationship exists both in the long-run as well as in the short-run. The results also have statistically significant. This study further explores that there is an asymmetric relationship between the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth. The nonlinear ARDL approach shows that the GDP growth rate responds more with an upward change in inflation than that of a downward change. Furthermore, in the short-run, the positive change in inflations has a significant and positive influence on the growth rate. Still, the influence of an adverse change in inflations has statistically insignificant. Both the policymakers of Bangladesh (Bangladesh Bank) and development partners working in the country can be benefited from these results in the context of policy implementation. This study recommends that to boosting up the economic growth in the context of Bangladesh, the inflation rate can be treated as a significant determination.

scholarly journals Taxation, government spending and economic growth: The case of Bulgaria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-266
Author(s):  
G. Ganchev ◽  
◽  
I. Todorov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this article is to estimate the impact of three fiscal instruments (direct taxes, indirect taxes, and government expenditure) on Bulgaria’s economic growth. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Eurostat quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period 1999–2020. Four control variables (the shares of gross capital formation, household consumption, and exports in GDP as well as the economic growth in the euro area) are included in the model to account for the influence of non-fiscal factors on Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate. The empirical results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between Bulgaria’s economic growth and the independent variables in the ARDL. In the short term, Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate is affected by its own past values and the previous values of the shares of direct tax revenue, exports, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue in GDP. In the long term, Bulgaria’s economic growth is influenced by its own previous values and the past values of the share of household consumption in GDP and the euro area’s real GDP growth rate. Fiscal instruments can be used to stabilize Bulgaria’s growth in the short run but they are neutral in the long run. The direct tax revenue, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue are highly effective and can be used as tools for invigorating and stabilizing Bulgaria’s economic growth in the short run. However, in the long term, the real GDP growth rate can be hastened only by encouraging domestic demand (final consumption expenditure of households) and promoting exports. This research cannot answer the question of whether flat income taxation stabilizes the economy or not, since it does not separate the impact of tax rate changes from the influence of tax base modifications.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Current Account Deficits and Growth in Montenegro: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Özer ◽  
Jovana Žugić ◽  
Sonja Tomaš-Miskin
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this study, we investigate the relationship between current account deficits and growth in Montenegro by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to co-integration for the period from the third quarter of 2011 to the last quarter of 2016. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run when growth is the dependent variable. The results also confirm a bidirectional long run and short run causal relationship between current account deficits and growth. The short run results mostly indicate a negative relationship between changes in the current account deficit GDP ratio and the GDP growth rate. This means that any increase of the value of independent variable (current account deficit GDP ratio) will result in decrease of the rate of GDP growth and vice versa. The long-run effect of the current account deficit to GDP ratio on GDP growth is positive. The constant (β0) is positive but also the (β1), meaning that with the increase of CAD GDP ratio of 1 measuring unit, the GDP growth rate would grow by 0,5459. This positive and tight correlation could be explained by overlapping structure of the constituents of CAD and the drivers of GDP growth (such as tourism, energy sector, agriculture etc.). The results offer new perspectives and insights for new policy aiming for sustainable economic growth of Montenegro.

scholarly journals Reconnoitering the Sustainable Relationship Between Revenue Income and GDP: A Comparative Study of Asymmetric Countries in the World

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aoulad Hosen
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetric Countries ◽  
The Government

This paper applies panel unit root test, country Pedroni cointegration test (PCT), Phillips-Peron cross section test (PPCST), vector error correction test and Johansen normalized cointegrating test (JNCT) for estimates the coefficients in the short-run and in the long-run to examine the inter-temporal relationship between the government revenues income and GDP. The paper took into account fifteen asymmetric countries with three income groups over the period of 2001 to 2016. The study justified the long run relationship between the articulated variables by the country PCT and the test results unearthed that four statistics out of seven on different indexes exhibited one percent level of significance. In the upper middle income country category, other than Brazil and Sri Lanka, rest of three countries showed long run relationship, i.e. the study outcome reconnoitered the existence of long run relationship between the two articulated variables. Decisively, the outcome of JNCT suggests that in the long run if the government revenue upsurge one percentage point then GDP growth rate will rise 0.037 and 0.28 percentage point for the countries that belongs to high income and the upper middle income respectively. Meanwhile, the test find negative result that allied to lower middle income nations, GDP growth rate will plummet 0.039 percent point due to one percent rise in revenue income. 

scholarly journals What is the relationship between FDI and economic growth? Evidence from EU15 countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 253-281
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of the paper is to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in EU15 countries over the period 2002-2018. EU15 makes a group of countries which entered the EU prior to the biggest enlargement in 2004, namely latest in 1995 (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom). Paper findings contribute to the existing literature on the impact of FDI on economic growth. It employs different unit root tests, panel cointegration test (ARDL model) and Granger causality. Estimated panel ARDL model found some evidence that there are long-run equilibrium between LogGDP, LogFDI and LogFDIP series. The rate of adjustment back to equilibrium is between 4.43% and 5.95%. The long-run coefficients are all positive, but not all of them are statistically significant. In case of LogFDIP series long-run coefficients are statistically significant, varying between 0.1226 and 0.4398. These coefficients indicate that 1% increase in LogFDIP (logarithm of FDI to GDP) increases LogGDP between 0.1226% and 0.4398%. Results of Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicated that there is only unidirectional causal relationship from GDP growth rate to FDI growth rate, and from GDP growth rate to LogFDIP. Conclusively, there is only a weak evidence that FDI had statistically significant impact on the GDP in EU15 countries.

scholarly journals Is Economic Growth Working for Jobs? An Investigation of the Employment Generating Capacity of the Nigerian Economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumuyiwa Olamade ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Generating Capacity ◽  
Short Run

Nigeria has been best with the incidence of concurrent unemployment and a good run of economic growth thus calling to question the efficacy of economic growth to create jobs in the country. In this paper, we examine first whether there exists any relationship between economic growth and employment in the manner espoused by Okun’s law and then interpret the coefficient of the relationship as indicative of the capacity of the economy to translate growth into employment. Due to the unreliability of unemployment data in many developing countries we use the growth rate of employment as the dependent variable and thus expect to find a positive relationship with economic growth. A second model was specified with the growth rate of employment-to-population ratio as the dependent variable. Data were extracted from World Development Indicators and Penn’s World Table for 1961 to 2017. All the variables were level stationary from two different tests of their statistical properties. We thus estimate the Ordinary Least Squares for the short-run coefficients and explore the robustness of the ARDL to different orders of integration for the long-run form. Both establish the application of Okun’s law to Nigeria with the employment elasticity of GDP growth too small to generate discernible growth in employment. We estimated an average GDP growth of 16.22% over the long-run for the economy to keep a steady growth in employment.

scholarly journals Stress Testing of Banking Systems: an examination against the Shocks of Macroeconomic Variables

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (SPE1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamiar Askari ◽  
Fatemeh Sarraf ◽  
Roya Darabi ◽  
Fatemeh Zandi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Default Rates

In the past years, overdue due receivables of the banks have increased in an unprecedented way compared to all the facilities granted in Iran’s banking network, showing the not very acceptable quality of bank assets that decrease the bank credit and make them financially unstable. The macroeconomic variables in this article are as follow: GDP growth rate, economic growth, exchange rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, government debt. The decrease in this amount of arrears shows the ability of banks to maintain their resources. At this research, after identifying the macroeconomic variables affecting the default of banks using the stress test and applying one standard deviation with the help of the historical scenario, the study examined the banks’ resilience to the shocks of these variables from 2006 to 2019. The results indicated that the shock of the economic growth rate had the greatest effect. In other words, the decrease in the economic growth rate had the greatest effect on the increase of borrowers’ default rates. In addition to this, shocks of economic growth and government debt have highly effect on the borrowers’ default rates and inflation rate, unemployment rate, GDP growth rate and exchange rate have a significant impact upon borrowers’ default rates.

scholarly journals Do Military Expenditure and Conflict Affect Economic Growth in Sri Lanka? Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Test Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Abdul Rasheed Sithy Jesmy ◽  
Mohd Zaini Abd Karim ◽  
Shri Dewi Applanaidu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Bounds Test

Conflicts in the form of civil war, ethnic tensions and political discord are of enduring concern and a major bottleneck to economic development in Sri Lanka. Three decades of civil war and unethical political culture have caused severe economic problems for the country, including slower rate of growth and a huge defence expenditure. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of military expenditure and conflict on per capita GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka from 1973 to 2014 using the Solow growth model and ARDL bounds test approach. The results of the bounds test are highly significant and lead to cointegration. The negative and significant coefficients of the error correction term illustrate the expected convergence process in the long-run dynamic of per capita GDP. The estimated empirical results show that, the coefficients of military expenditure and conflict are negative and statistically significant in the short-run as well as in the long-run in determining per capita GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka. Hence, it is critically important to take necessary action to decrease military expenditure and provide an efficient political solution to the problem of minorities, specifically in the post-war period.

scholarly journals Impact of Exchange Rate Management on the Nigerian Economic Growth: Empirical Validation

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 28-35
Author(s):  
Friday Osaru Ovenseri Ogbomo ◽  
Precious Imuwahen Ajoonu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Exchange Rate Management ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examined the impact of Exchange Rate Management on economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2015. The study was set to gauge how the management of exchange rate in Nigeria has impacted the economy. The study employed the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method in its analysis. Co-integration and Error Correction Techniques were used to establish the Short-run and Long-run relationships between economic growth and other relevant economic indicators. The result revealed that exchange rate management proxy by various exchange rates regimes in Nigeria was not germane to economic growth. Rather, government expenditure, inflation rate, money supply and foreign direct investment significantly impact on economic growth in Nigeria. It is against this backdrop that the Nigerian economy must diversify her export base to create room for more inflow of foreign exchange.  

scholarly journals INNOVATION EFFECT THROUGH RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 35 OECD COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 159-166
Author(s):  
Maman Ali M. Moustapha ◽  
Qian Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Development Expenditure

This paper analyzes the effect of research and development (R&D) expenditures on economic growth in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries over the period 2000-2016. This study conducts an empirical analysis using a multiple regression model. The main findings confirm that an increase in research and development expenditure by 1% would generate an increase of real GDP growth rate to 2.83 %. The implication emerging from this study is that government and institutions need to increase investment in R&D expenditures to fulfill inclusive economic growth perspective.

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