scholarly journals The marriage unemployment gap

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sekyu Choi ◽  
Arnau Valladares-Esteban

Abstract In this paper we document that married individuals face a lower unemployment rate than their single counterparts. We refer to this phenomenon as the marriage unemployment gap. Despite dramatic demographic changes in the labor market over the last decades, this gap has been remarkably stable both for men and women. Using a flow-decomposition exercise, we assess which transition probabilities (across labor force states) are behind this phenomenon: For men, the main driver is the higher job losing probabilities faced by single workers. For females, the participation margin also plays a crucial role.

2017 ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ivanova ◽  
A. Balaev ◽  
E. Gurvich

The paper considers the impact of the increase in retirement age on labor supply and economic growth. Combining own estimates of labor participation and demographic projections by the Rosstat, the authors predict marked fall in the labor force (by 5.6 million persons over 2016-2030). Labor demand is also going down but to a lesser degree. If vigorous measures are not implemented, the labor force shortage will reach 6% of the labor force by the period end, thus restraining economic growth. Even rapid and ambitious increase in the retirement age (by 1 year each year to 65 years for both men and women) can only partially mitigate the adverse consequences of demographic trends.


2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 297-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marika Karanassou ◽  
Dennis J. Snower

Abstract This paper provides a critique of the ‘unemployment invariance hypothesis’, according to which the behavior of the labor market, by itself, ensures that the long-run unemployment rate is independent of the size of the capital stock, productivity and the labor force. In the context of an endogenous growth model, we show that the labor market alone need not contain all the equilibrating mechanisms to ensure unemployment invariance; in particular, other markets may perform part of the equilibrating process as well. By implication, policies that raise the growth path of capital or increase the effective working-age population may influence the long-run unemployment rate.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (02) ◽  
pp. 1950011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suhal Kusairi ◽  
Suriyani Muhamad ◽  
M Musdholifah ◽  
Shu-Chen Chang

An overwhelming increase in household debt in the last decade has stirred researchers to explore the determinants of this phenomena, especially the role of the labor market. This paper comes to identify these determinants using the macro panel data from Asia Pacific countries for 1994–2016 and dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis. The empirical results found that household consumption, housing price index, and labor force have a long-run positive relationship with household debt. In contrast, the unemployment rate and dependency ratio have a long-run negative relationship with household debt. This implies that when consumption, housing price, and labor force increase, then the household debt will increase, and when the unemployment rate and dependency ratio increase, the household debt will decrease. Also, in the short-run, public debt does affect private consumption, and it is not different among countries. The labor market, as represented by the unemployment rate, dependency ratio, and labor force, has a strong effect on the household debt in the long-run. Based on these findings, the government should pay more attention to the household debt related to property and commodity markets because they expose the short-run volatility and create problems for the long-term.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (282) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ippei Shibata

This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers’ unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker’s observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process, the proposed HMM allows workers with the same labor force status to have different history-dependent transition probabilities. I show that the estimated HMM generates labor market transition probabilities that match those observed in the data, while the first-order Markov model (FOM) and its many-state extensions cannot. Even compared with the extended FOM, the HMM improves the fit of the empirical transition probabilities by a factor of 30. I apply the HMM to (1) calculate the long-run consequences of separation from stable employment, (2) study evolutions of employment stability across different demographic groups over the past several decades, (3) compare the dynamics of labor market flows during the Great Recession to those during the 1981 recession, and (4) highlight the importance of looking beyond distributions of current labor force status.


2014 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Cushing ◽  
David I. Rosenbaum

Abstract A panel of age-specific transition probabilities is developed for the three-decade period 1980 to 2010. Analysis shows that both male and female transition probabilities have evolved over the 30-year span. The transition probabilities are used to calculate both period and cohort worklives. The results differ starkly for men and women. For men, worklives are most affected for those with little education. For women, obtaining a college degree has the most impact on worklives. The results suggest that using historical period worklives may have mis-estimated worklives for these two groups relative to cohort estimates.


Author(s):  
Samir Amine ◽  
Wilner Predelus

In Canada, recent data show a marked improvement in the youth unemployment rate for the first time since the last recession, although their participation in the labor force remains below the expected thresholds. In the context of a historically low unemployment rate, this chapter aims to dig deeper into the data to understand how youth has fared in the labor market since the last recession compared to the older people, and mainly in the area of gender disparities. In this context, the authors analyze the unemployment and the participation rates by age and by sex. Furthermore, they provide an insight on the youth regional unemployment rates.


Economics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 104 (6-9) ◽  
pp. 19-32
Author(s):  
Lela Tetradze Lela Tetradze

One of the major challenges for the economic development of Georgia is how to increase the rate of employment and decrease the rate of unemployment. At the current stage of economic and social development of Georgia, it is very important to raise an employment rate and to decrease an unemployment rate. This complex problem is subject to constant changes over time. Therefore, the continuous research in this field is and will stay very important. It is a priority for the economic development of the country to make relevant political steps to decrease unempoyment and increase employment. In order to develop efficient economic policy to decrease unemployment and increase employment, it is important to conduct a thorough market analysis and implement necessary steps to get better results. This article analyzes the current situation in terms of employment and unemployment, provides relevant latest data and describes the existing circumstances based on the analysis of these data. In this article, the focus is made on an important issue affecting unemployment, such as migration processes. Both external and internal migration makes an important impact on the current unemployment rate in the country. Internal migration may lead to positive as well as negative consequences. The article indicates that the consequences are considered to be positive, if the population migration is directed from the regions with the surplus of workforce to the regions with the shortage of workforce, which certainly leads to the lower unemployment rate in the country; on the other hand, the consequences are negative when an excessive number of people are migrating from certain regions, making it impossible to develop these regions in the future; also such migration increases the population in the big cities, which leads to worsened leaving conditions and poor municipal services in these cities. Besides, the article focuses on external migration processes: emigration and immigration as important aspects affecting the unemployment. Both of them have positive and negative consequences. In case of emigration, a positive consequence can be if the surplus of the workforce is leaving the country. This decreases the rate of unemployment; while the negative consequences will entail, if the workforce of employment age, mainly young people, are leaving the country. This creates a problem in the country with a low birth rate and puts even the population replacement under danger. It is well known that migration of the population influences the demographic structure of the population. The migration mostly involves the population of working age, mainly young people. The population increases in regions which are receiving migrants. Namely, the ratio of young population is increasing. In the regions from which people are emigrating, the absolute number of population is decreasing and withing the age structure, the ratio of elderly population is increasing. Besides, the article reviews a negative impact inflicted by COVID-19, declared as the world pandemic by the World Health Orgrnization, on different social and economic aspects of the country. The article also discusses the main challenges of the labor market – the high rate of unemployment, the employment structure and a low productivity of self-employed. For the past few years, there have been drastic demographic changes, which results in a decreased workforce. These demographic changes are caused by people leaving the country as well as by the unstable birth rates. Besides, “brain drain” during the short period of time leads to the loss of intellectual asset of the country. However, if these people come back, it may have a very positive impact on the labor market: it will increase the number of qualified people in the country and it will have a positive influence on the economy of the country and its growth. Keywords: labor market; employment; unemployment; economically active population; workforce; employed; self-employed; modern challenges; impact of the pandemic.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Christl ◽  
Monika Köppl-Turyna ◽  
Dénes Kucsera

AbstractWe estimate the classic and the dynamic variant of Okun’s law for the Austrian labor market. We find that, for recent periods, the growth rate necessary to stabilize the unemployment rate equals 2.8 percent. Moreover, we find that the rate has been growing in recent quarters due to the increasing labor force size and the effects of the crisis. The latest prediction of the employment threshold lies above 3 percent, much above forecasted GDP growth up to 2017.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 36
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahadat Hossain Siddiquee ◽  
Md Amzad Hossain

Using the Labor Force Survey 2010 dataset this paper examines gender wage gap in a large sample of urban workers in Bangladesh and explore whether gender wage gap varies across the wage distribution. Mincerian OLS regression and its Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition results reveal that the estimated wage gap between men and women workers is 21.2%. Adjusting women’s endowments levels to those of men increases women’s wage by 12.1% and a gap of 8.0% remains unexplained. The decomposition results based on the unconditional quantile regressions demonstrate that the estimated total gender wage gap is higher at lower end of the wage distribution compared to the higher end.


2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 40-49
Author(s):  
Skibiński Andrzej

The process of reduction of the number of births, accompanied by longer life expectancy, will have serious consequences for the supply of labor force (shrinking of the working age population) on the future labor market. Labor market participation of the Visegrád Group residents is increasingly higher. In this situation, promoting labor market participation among the elderly seems a significant solution to mitigate the effects of population ageing. In view of the above, the aim of the paper is to present the impact of demographic changes on the size of labor force in the Visegrád Group countries.


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