scholarly journals Poland’s Economic Performance in Global and Long-term Perspective: Surprises so far and Risks in the Years Ahead

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (52) ◽  
pp. 109-117
Author(s):  
Stanisław Gomułka
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Socialist Economy ◽  
The Third ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Polish Economy ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Development Gap ◽  
Green Island

Abstract The paper is focused on economic and institutional developments in Poland during the last 30 years of transition from its centrally planned socialist economy to a market-based capitalist economy. The main purposes of the paper are three. One is to identify and explain the developments that were either surprising or specifically Polish. The second purpose is to note and explain the differences between the rate of growth of the Polish economy and that of the other emerging economies, in particular to explain ‘the green island’ phenomenon during the global financial crisis 2008-2009. The third purpose is to note and discuss the new risks that may prevent Poland to reduce further the development gap to technologically most advanced economies.

DYNAMIC CONNECTEDNESS OF FINANCIAL STRESS ACROSS ADVANCED AND EMERGING ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM TIME AND FREQUENCY DOMAINS

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-40
Author(s):  
TRINH QUANG LONG ◽  
LAN HOANG NGUYEN ◽  
PETER J. MORGAN
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Financial Stress Index ◽  
Exchange Rate Markets ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This study analyzes the dynamic connectedness (i.e., spillovers and spillbacks) of financial stress across advanced and emerging economies. As proxy for financial stress, we reconstruct the financial stress index (FSI) for 16 advanced economies and 15 emerging economies from January 1997 to August 2020. The constructed FSIs reflect combined stress level in banking sectors, equity markets, capital markets and exchange rate markets. Using frameworks proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(1), 57–66) and Baruník and Křehlík (Measuring the frequency dynamics of financial connectedness and systemic risk. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 16(2), 271–296), we find that there is strong connectedness of financial stress across economies. Moreover, the connectedness of the financial stress is stronger after the global financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the spillover of shocks is strongest in the short-term horizon, the spillovers in the longer-term horizons are not trivial. Our results also show that the US is the largest shock transmitter as well as one of the largest shock receivers. Our results also suggest that shocks originating in advanced economies have strong effects on other economies, but shocks originating in emerging economies also play an increasing role. Global factors such as global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks influence the magnitude of the spillover of financial stress.

scholarly journals Financial Spillovers in Asian Emerging Economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-118
Author(s):  
Shin-ichi Fukuda ◽  
Mariko Tanaka
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Common Shocks ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper explores financial spillovers between emerging Asia and advanced economies using principal component analysis to extract common shocks in Asia. We first investigate stock market spillovers across the regions and find that spillovers from emerging Asia became significant after the global financial crisis. However, our industry-level analysis shows that the increased spillovers can be attributed to the first principal component (PC) in the manufacturing sector rather than to the first PC in the financial sector. This implies that the rise of the Asian manufacturing sector in the global market played a key role in enhancing the stock market spillovers. We next examine bilateral spillovers in short-term and long-term rates. In the tapering period, we find significant spillovers in long-term rates from the first PC in emerging Asia to Europe and the United States. However, these spillovers were much smaller than the stock market spillovers in magnitude.

Conclusions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Zero Bound

The preceding chapters have examined the deepened integration of emerging and developing economies (EDEs) into the international financial system in the new millennium and their changing vulnerabilities to external financial shocks. They have discussed the role that policies in advanced economies played in this process, including those that culminated in the global financial crisis and the unconventional monetary policy of zero-bound interest rates and quantitative easing adopted in response to the crisis, as well as policies in EDEs themselves....

Financial Sustainability and Infrastructure Finance

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felipe Carvalho de Rezende
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Infrastructure Finance ◽  
Strategic Role ◽  
Development Banks ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Development

Among the lessons that can be drawn from the global financial crisis is that private financial institutions have failed to promote the capital development of the affected economies, and to dampen financial fragility. This chapter analyses the macroeconomic role that development banks can play in this context, not only providing long-term funding necessary to promote economic development, but also fostering financial stability. The chapter discusses, in particular, the need for public financial institutions to provide support for infrastructure and sustainable development projects. It concludes that development banks play a strategic role by funding infrastructure projects in particular, and outlines the lessons for enhancing their role as catalysts for mitigating risks associated with such projects.

Effect of economic indicators, biomass energy on human development in China

2021 ◽  
pp. 0958305X2110220
Author(s):  
Ngo Thai Hung
Keyword(s):  
Human Development ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Biomass Energy ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Frequency Domains ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Previous studies ignored the distinction between short, medium, and long term by decomposing macroeconomic variables and human development index at different time scales. We re-visit the causal association between biomass energy (BIO), economic growth (GDP), trade openness (TRO), industrialization (IND), foreign direct investment (FDI), and human development (HDI) in China on a quarterly scale by scale basis for the period 1990 to 2019 using the tools of wavelet, i.e., wavelet correlation, wavelet coherence and scale by scale Granger causality test. The main findings uncover that IND, TRO, GDP, and BIO positively drive the HDI at low and medium frequencies, while FDI negatively impacts HDI during the sample period. Additionally, there is a bidirectional relationship between GDP and HDI at different time and frequency domains. Specifically, we discover that the positive co-movement is more robust in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, particularly for HDI, BIO, GDP, and TRO at medium frequencies throughout the period under research. Our empirical insights have significant implications for achieving human development sustainability in China.

Financialization and state capitalism in Hungary after the Global Financial Crisis

2021 ◽  
pp. 102452942110032
Author(s):  
David Karas
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Active Role ◽  
The State ◽  
State Capitalism ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Whereas the active role of the state in steering financialization is consensual in advanced economies, the financialization of emerging market economies is usually examined through the prism of dependency: this downplays the domestic political functions of financialization and the agency of the state. With the consolidation of state capitalist regimes in the semi-periphery after the Global Financial Crisis, different interpretations emerged – some linking state capitalism with de-financialization, others with coercive projects deepening it. Preferring a more granular and multi-dimensional approach, I analyse how different facets of financialization might represent political risks or opportunities for state capitalist projects: Based on the Hungarian example, I first explain how the constitution of a ‘financial vertical’ after 2010 inaugurated a new mode of statecraft. Second, I show how the financial vertical enabled rentier bargains between state and society after 2015 by deepening the financialization of social policy and housing in response to a looming crisis of competitiveness.

How firms borrow in international bond markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-169
Author(s):  
Alberto Fuertes ◽  
Jose María Serena
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Choice Behavior ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Securities And Exchange Commission ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parametric Analyses ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose This paper aims to investigate how firms from emerging economies choose among different international bond markets: global, US144A and Eurobond markets. The authors explore if the ranking in regulatory stringency –global bonds have the most stringent regulations and Eurobonds have the most lenient regulations – leads to a segmentation of borrowers. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a novel data set from emerging economy firms, treating them as consolidated entities. The authors also obtain descriptive evidence and perform univariate non-parametric analyses, conditional and multinomial logit analyses to study firms’ marginal debt choice decisions. Findings The authors show that firms with poorer credit quality, less ability to absorb flotation costs and more informational asymmetries issue debt in US144A and Eurobond markets. On the contrary, firms issuing global bonds – subject to full Securities and Exchange Commission requirements – are financially sounder and larger. This exercise also shows that following the global crisis, firms from emerging economies are more likely to tap less regulated debt markets. Originality/value This is, to the authors’ knowledge, the first study that examines if the ranking in stringency of regulation – global bonds have the most stringent regulations and Eurobonds have the most lenient regulations – is consistent with an ordinal choice by firms. The authors also explore if this ranking is monotonic in all determinants or there are firm-specific features which make firms unlikely to borrow in a given market. Finally, the authors analyze if there are any changes in the debt-choice behavior of firms after the global financial crisis.

scholarly journals Financial cycle − A critical analysis of the methodology for its identification

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 99-116
Author(s):  
Łukasz Kurowski
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Critical Perspective ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
Economic Justification ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Abstract While the legitimacy of the concept of the financial cycle (as distinct from the business cycle) in research and economic policy after the experience of the global financial crisis raises no concerns, the methodology for its application has become a subject of discussion. The purpose of this article is to indicate which research methods dominate in identifying a financial cycle and which methodological traps accompany them. The low level of critical perspective on the methods used to identify cycles often results in conclusions that have no economic justification and may result in erroneous decisions in economic policy and central bank practice. The case study carried out in the article confirms that the key elements in identifying a financial cycle are part of a long-term series covering at least two lengths of the financial cycle. In addition, because the results may be sensitive to the type of filter used, it is important not to rely on a single variable but rather to build indexes that take into account a number of them (including those obtained using filtration methods).

scholarly journals r minus g negative

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (52) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Mauro ◽  
Jing Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Borrowing Costs ◽  
Debt Dynamics ◽  
High Government ◽  
Traditional Assumption ◽  
Historical Database ◽  
Sovereign Defaults ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Contrary to the traditional assumption of interest rates on government debt exceeding economic growth, negative interest-growth differentials have become prevalent since the global financial crisis. As these differentials are a key determinant of public debt dynamics, can we sleep more soundly, despite high government debts? Our paper undertakes an empirical analysis of interestgrowth differentials, using the largest historical database on average effective government borrowing costs for 55 countries over up to 200 years. We document that negative differentials have occurred more often than not, in both advanced and emerging economies, and have often persisted for long historical stretches. Moreover, differentials are no higher prior to sovereign defaults than in normal times. Marginal (rather than average) government borrowing costs often rise abruptly and sharply, but just prior to default. Based on these results, our answer is: not really.

scholarly journals ADJUSTMENT SPEED OF DEBT MATURITY: EVIDENCE FROM FINANCIAL CRISES IN EAST ASIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-92
Author(s):  
Hasan Tekin ◽  
Ali Yavuz Polat
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Debt Maturity ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Adjustment Speed ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Holders

We investigate the change in adjustment speed of debt maturity for East Asian firms between 1990 and 2017 by including two exogenous shocks: the Asian Financial Crisis 1997-1998 (AFC) and the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2009 (GFC). We employ the least square dummy variable correction and find that East Asian firms have a slower adjustment of long-term debt over time. Besides, the decrease in adjustment speed of long-term debt after the GFC is more compared to the decrease after the AFC. Further analysis shows the optimal debt maturity differs across countries and industries. Another important implication of our results is that firms in high governance countries are more likely to close the gap between the actual and target debt maturity in time. Overall, debt holders and investors should consider financial uncertainties.

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