Marching to the Ballot Box: Sex and Voting in the 2020 Election Cycle

The Forum ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 559-580
Author(s):  
Heather L. Ondercin
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
100Th Anniversary ◽  
Parental Status ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Small Subgroup ◽  
Swing Voters ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Married Mothers

Abstract With the 2020 election marking the 100th anniversary of the ratification of the 19th Amendment, our attention has been keenly focused on women voters. Media coverage of women voters portrayed them as swing voters and focused on a small subgroup of women (white, married, mothers). I argue that women’s and men’s voting behavior in 2020 was highly similar to past elections and does not support the claims that women or a subgroup of women are swing voters. I illustrate the diversity of women’s voting behavior through analyzing the intersection of gender with race, ethnicity, education, marital status, and parental status. Even though women were not swing voters, women still play an important role in electoral politics, representing the majority of members in both the Democratic and Republican Parties and holding stronger attachments to these parties than men.

Local Elections and the Politics of Small-Scale Democracy

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Eric Oliver ◽  
Shang E. Ha ◽  
Zachary Callen
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Local Governance ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
Personal Connections ◽  
Community Ties

Local government is the hidden leviathan of American politics: it accounts for nearly a tenth of gross domestic product, it collects nearly as much in taxes as the federal government, and its decisions have an enormous impact on Americans' daily lives. Yet political scientists have few explanations for how people vote in local elections, particularly in the smaller cities, towns, and suburbs where most Americans live. Drawing on a wide variety of data sources and case studies, this book offers the first comprehensive analysis of electoral politics in America's municipalities. Arguing that current explanations of voting behavior are ill suited for most local contests, the book puts forward a new theory that highlights the crucial differences between local, state, and national democracies. Being small in size, limited in power, and largely unbiased in distributing their resources, local governments are “managerial democracies” with a distinct style of electoral politics. Instead of hinging on the partisanship, ideology, and group appeals that define national and state elections, local elections are based on the custodial performance of civic-oriented leaders and on their personal connections to voters with similarly deep community ties. Explaining not only the dynamics of local elections, Oliver's findings also upend many long-held assumptions about community power and local governance, including the importance of voter turnout and the possibilities for grassroots political change.

Pocketbook vs. Sociotropic Corruption Voting

2014 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Klašnja ◽  
Joshua A. Tucker ◽  
Kevin Deegan-Krause
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Aggregate Data ◽  
Personal Experiences ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Valence Issue ◽  
Do So

The article examines the relationship between corruption and voting behavior by defining two distinct channels:pocketbook corruption voting, i.e. how personal experiences with corruption affect voting behavior; andsociotropic corruption voting, i.e. how perceptions of corruption in society do so. Individual and aggregate data from Slovakia fail to support hypotheses that corruption is an undifferentiated valence issue, that it depends on the presence of a viable anti-corruption party, or that voters tolerate (or even prefer) corruption, and support the hypothesis that the importance of each channel depends on thesalienceof each source of corruption and that pocketbook corruption voting prevails unless a credible anti-corruption party shifts media coverage of corruption and activates sociotropic corruption voting. Previous studies may have underestimated the prevalence of corruption voting by not accounting for both channels.

scholarly journals Fostering Civic Engagement across the Curriculum

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Anita McMurtry
Keyword(s):  
Civic Engagement ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Political Process ◽  
The Political ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Media ◽  
History Books

Now that media coverage has waned, it is the time for reflecting on last year’s highs and lows as we make improvements for the future. Extensively covered in the media, the midterm election cycle was a 2018 event for the history books. These developments still present a unique opportunity for teaching civic engagement to students. We professors may have been energetic and eager about discussing the issues in our classrooms. On the contrary, some of our students might have lacked the same enthusiasm. Others may have expressed outright anxiety regarding the political process. What can we do to help with such issues in the future?

scholarly journals Modern Trends and Voting Behaviours in Politics of District Dera Ghazi Khan, Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol V (I) ◽  
pp. 323-331
Author(s):  
Muhammad Farooq Akbar Leghari ◽  
Aftab Hussain Gillani ◽  
Muhammad Wasim Abbas
Keyword(s):  
Rural Area ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Democratic Governance ◽  
Caste System ◽  
Political Affiliation ◽  
Political Leader ◽  
Field Surveys

Elections play a significant role in democratic governance. The present investigation exhibited changing scenario as the importance of numerous factors is replaced by others which affects the magnitude of voting behavior of common peoples participating in electoral politics. It elucidates the causes that constitute political affiliation in District Dera Ghazi Khan. During our field surveys most of the respondents pleaded that Biradari and caste system encounter political leadership at local and country levels. The results reflect that people of District Dera Ghazi Khan (tribal and rural area) were mostly in favor of caste based preferences of political leader in electoral system. Peoples had their own preferences and vision across the literate or illiterate voter. The voter decides independently which person would be suitable political leader in his constituency.

Voters and Voting in Context

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christof Wolf
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Contextual Information ◽  
Contextual Effects ◽  
Opinion Formation ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Campaign Communication ◽  
The Impact

This book investigates the role of context in affecting political opinion formation and voting behavior. Building on a model of contextual effects on individual-level voter behavior, the chapters of this volume explore contextual effects in Germany in the early twenty-first century. The contributions draw on manifold combinations of individual and contextual information gathered in the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) framework and employ advanced methods. In substantive terms, they investigate the impact of campaign communication on political learning, the effects of media coverage on the perceived importance of political problems, and the role of electoral competition on candidate strategies and perceptions. Other contributions deal with the role of social and economic contexts as well as parties’ policy stances in affecting electoral turnout. The chapters on vote choice explore the impact of social cues on candidate voting, effects of electoral arenas on vote functions, the role of media coverage on ideological voting, and effects of campaign communication on the timing of electoral decision-making. The volume demonstrates the key role of the processes of communication and politicization in bringing about contextual effects. Context thus plays a nuanced role in voting behavior. The contingency of contextual effects suggests that they should become an important topic in research on political behavior and democratic politics.

scholarly journals Dynamic Elite Partisanship: Party Loyalty and Agenda Setting in the US House

2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 741-772 ◽  
Author(s):  
René Lindstädt ◽  
Ryan J. Vander Wielen
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Process ◽  
Agenda Setting ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Detrimental Effect ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Party Loyalty ◽  
The Us ◽  
Legislative Parties

Legislators and legislative parties must strike a balance between collective and member-level goals. While there are legislative and reputational returns to co-ordinated behavior, partisan loyalty has a detrimental effect on members’ electoral success. This article argues that members and parties navigate these competing forces by pursuing partisan legislation when the threat of electoral repercussions is relatively low – when elections are distant. This study tests our theory by examining US House members’ likelihood of voting with their party on both partisan and non-divisive votes during the course of the election cycle in order to assess whether members strategically alter their levels of party loyalty as elections approach. It also explores whether majority parties strategically structure the agenda according to variation in members’ electoral constraints. This approach allows elite partisanship to follow a dynamic process, which is referred to here as dynamic elite partisanship. The results demonstrate that as elections approach, members are less likely to cast party votes, and parties are less inclined to schedule votes that divide the parties. At the same time, the study finds no evidence of strategic variation in members’ voting behavior on broadly consensual votes with election proximity.

Climate Change Skepticism and Voting Behavior

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (10) ◽  
pp. 1309-1334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rod McCrea ◽  
Zoe Leviston ◽  
Iain A. Walker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Reverse Direction ◽  
Partisan Politics ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Rational Models ◽  
Climate Change Policies ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Low Levels

Political will for action on climate change requires support from the electorate and low levels of climate change skepticism. Rational models suggest that skepticism influences voting behavior; however, other theories suggest the reverse direction of influence may also hold. There is a body of research on associations between climate change skepticism and political preferences, but this has been limited to cross-sectional analyses. This article uses longitudinal data and cross-lagged modeling to infer the direction of influence in a post-election context. We found that voting behavior influenced climate change skepticism after an election more than climate change skepticism influenced voting intentions. This suggests that partisan politics increases fluctuations in climate change skepticism, and there may be more or less opportune times to pursue climate change policies. Similar research is now needed in pre- and mid-election cycle contexts to determine the direction of influence over the election cycle.

Knowledge, Strategy, and Momentum in Presidential Primaries

1993 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 1-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry E. Brady
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Knowledge Strategy ◽  
Strategy Model ◽  
The Media ◽  
Public Instruction ◽  
Voting Models

Two dynamic rational choice models of primaries are analyzed that demonstrate both reformers and their critics are right about primaries. Primaries can provide public instruction and a better informed electorate, and they can be poorly designed lotteries: A “recognition” and learning model describes how changing media coverage affects voters' knowledge about candidates and their subsequent voting behavior. A “strategic” voting model describes the dynamic implications of strategic voting and “horse-race” coverage by the media. We find that the recognition model has the normatively appealing dynamic of information leading to broadly self-interested outcomes while the strategy model has the unappealing behavior of a lottery the odds of which are fixed by the media's harsh judgments of who's winning and who's losing.In coming to these conclusions, this paper illustrates a number of methodological points such as the usefulness of macromodels based upon assumptions about individual behavior, the analysis of macromodels using methods from electrical engineering, the strengths and limitations of analytical results versus simulations for understanding dynamic models, and the use of “ideal type” recognition and strategic voting models to clarify the systemic consequences of individual risk aversion and strategic voting. More generally, the paper shows how models can be used as narratives or parables for organizing disparate observations, refining our intuitions, and directing our research efforts.

US primary process will weaken Republicans

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Carolina ◽  
New Hampshire ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Campaign Contributions ◽  
Large Field ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Criminal Justice Reform ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Speaker Of The House

Significance Traditionally, early successes in the nomination process -- particularly Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina -- can add momentum to a candidate's nomination campaign, through increased media coverage, elite endorsements and campaign contributions. In the 2016 election cycle, media coverage has focused on the Republican race, where a large field and unprecedented levels of discord have dominated headlines. The Democratic race has come down to former First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton against Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Impacts Speaker of the House Paul Ryan may use the election-season window to pass legislation on trade or criminal-justice reform. Republicans may lose key seats in the Senate if they nominate Trump or Cruz. The Senate may trigger a constitutional crisis in an election year if it announces that it will no longer confirm Obama's judicial nominees.

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