The Role of Time Preferences in Explaining the Long-Term Pattern of International Trade

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marian Leimbach ◽  
Lavinia Baumstark ◽  
Gunnar Luderer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Time Preferences ◽  
Trade Patterns ◽  
Applied Model ◽  
Trade Model

Globalization is accompanied by increasing current account imbalances. They can undermine the positive impacts of increasing international cooperation and trade on economic growth. By applying an economic growth model that requests for long-term compensation of short-term current account deficits, we derive patterns of international trade. Model output, however, is challenged by empirical data – which is related to the Lucas Paradox. This paper demonstrates how, based on the assumption of differentiated time preferences, model results and empirical data are reconciled with each other. The method presented here yields an indirect estimate of the rates of time preference across regions. Our results suggest that the time preference rate is low in emerging Asian countries, while the USA and Europe are characterized by above world-average rates. Based on the applied model that differentiates between trade in energy resources and a composite good, simulated trade patterns of these three world regions significantly differ from each other and also from trade patterns that occur in resource exporting countries.

TEKNOLOGI, PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: SUATU KAJIAN TEORI EKONOMI KLASIK KE PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL MODERN

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Sidik Budiono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Economic ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Balance Growth ◽  
Factor Share ◽  
Static Approach ◽  
Total Productivity ◽  
Classical Economic ◽  
Bang Bang Control

There are 3 phenomens of most economic which undivided that openess and international trade and economic growth. Openess is the first frame for most country to do consolidation for its capability and weakness. International trade have able support high economic growthsignificantly. This paper would like to inform us about development of international economic from Classical Economic era to Modern International Economic (integration of endogenous growth and trade). The analyzis is not only comparative static approach but alsointertemporal approach. Scientificly the country’s advantage of modern international trade is not only analyzed for technology and specialization but also countries’s factor share.  Generally, all countries tend to the long term equilibrium in the balance growth path.Therefore, each country and rest of the world will able to meet welfare economy not only individually but also international.Keywords: Technology, International Trade, Economic Growth, Balance Growth Path, Factor Share, Total Productivity, Bang-Bang Control.

scholarly journals Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-170
Author(s):  
Khoirul Ifa ◽  
Moh. Yahdi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
The Impact

Economic growth and international trade are related to one another. International trade stimulates long-term economic growth. The more trade activities in a country, the more rapid economic growth; this trade is a key component of development in a country, its contribution is felt with the increasing economic growth in several countries. The purpose of this study looks at the impact of trade openness on economic growth in Indonesia in 1986-2017. This research is a quantitative study using time series data from 1986-2017, research data obtained from the world bank, data analysis techniques using the GMM method to see the impact of trade openness on economic growth. The test results using the Generalized Method of Moments analysis method show that all variables significantly influence the dynamics of economic growth in Indonesia. This result is proven by the t-statistic probability value, which shows a smaller value compared to the t-table value. Then the value also has a probability of less than α. It can be concluded that the variables of trade, FDI, inflation, and the number of workers have a significant effect on economic growth in Indonesia.

scholarly journals The Relationship between International Trade and Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (02) ◽  
pp. 112-123
Author(s):  
Putri Dewi Purnama ◽  
Ming Hung Yao
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this study is to find the relationship between international trade and economic growth in ASEAN countries. Three independent variables used to measure the economic growth include international trade, the exchange rate, and foreign direct investment. This study employs a pedroni panel cointegration test to examine the data from 2004 to 2015. The results show that there is a long term cointegrated relationship between international trade and economic growth in the ASEAN countries. International trade and foreign direct investment also have a long term, positive impact on economic growth. Meanwhile, the exchange rate also has a long term, negative influence on the economic growth. In addition, there is an indirect relationship and bidirectional causalities between the GDP and international trade, as well as between the GDP and the exchange rate. On the other hand, there is a direct relationship and a bidirectional causality between international trade and the exchange rate. The FDI leads GDP, international trade, and exchange rates. Our results suggest that international trade must be supported by government policies that aim to enhance the financing of new investment for economic growth.

scholarly journals Does international tourism spur international trade and output? Evidence from wavelet analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mukesh Kumar ◽  
Sanjeev Prashar ◽  
RK Jana
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Time Frequency

In this article, we attempt to examine the nexus of trade, economic growth, and international tourism. We resort to wavelet-based analysis to capture the time–frequency-based lead–lag dynamics of this nexus. Considering the monthly data spanning from January 1999 to February 2018 for the United States, we find the evidence that (a) increasing trade leads to higher tourist inflows (in terms of receipts), (b) tourist receipts are lagged by economic growth, and (c) these relationships are significant in the long term. We believe that these results are crucial for policymakers to frame policies regarding tourism in the United States.

Financial Fragility and Its Impacts on International Trade and Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 158-173
Author(s):  
Ayberk Şeker
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Financial Fragility ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Fragility Index ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Cointegration Tests

International trade cannot be considered separate from the current financial system in the context of imports and exports. In this context, the impact on international trade should be analyzed under the financial fragility hypothesis. This chapter aims to analyze the effects of financial fragility on Fragile Five and Troubled Ten countries' economic growth and trade strategies. In this direction, long-term relationships between variables are analyzed by Westerlund panel cointegration tests. According to the result of the panel cointegration tests, there are long-term relationships between exports, imports, gross domestic product, and financial fragility index. After determining the long-term relationships between variables, causality analyses have been carried out to reveal the direction of these relationships. According to Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test results, there are bidirectional causality relationships between financial fragility index and export, import, and gross domestic product.

scholarly journals Spirit of Capitalism and Conspicuous Consumption with Social Status in a Neoclassical Growth Trade Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Wei-Bin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Status ◽  
Conspicuous Consumption ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Wealth Accumulation ◽  
Trade Patterns ◽  
Dynamic Interactions ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Spirit Of Capitalism

<p class="ber">This study deals with dynamic interactions among social status, conspicuous consumption, spirit of capitalism, global growth, trade patterns, and inequalities in income and wealth between countries. The paper constructs a multi-country growth model with endogenous physical capital, wealth accumulation and social status. The modelling of social status is influenced by the ideas related to economic growth and social status in the literature of economic growth. This study analyzes the role of conspicuous consumption by assuming that social status is enhanced by more consumption and the role of the spirit of capitalism (of some goods) by assuming that social status is enhanced by more wealth. The global economic system consists of any number of countries and each country has one capital goods sector and one consumer goods sector. This study applies an alternative utility function proposed by Zhang to analyze household behavior. The countries differ in preferences, spirits of capitalisms, and productivities. We show that the dynamics of -country world economy is described by  differential equations. We simulate the motion of the model with three countries and carry out comparative dynamic analysis with regard to some parameters.</p>

scholarly journals Escalation of global risks and threats in a pandemic condition: financial and macroeconomic aspects

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (10) ◽  
pp. 20-27
Author(s):  
Tamara PANFILOVA ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Economic Landscape

Potentially threatening phenomena on the way to stabilizing and overcoming depressive trends in the global economy in the medium and long term in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic have been identified and systematized, taking into account the identification of areas of global risk. The reformatting of the global socio-economic landscape is substantiated, which is determined by the course of the pandemic, the different rates of decline and recovery of the economic growth in general and in individual industries, the destabilization of public finances, the exacerbation of social protection problems. This is confirmed by the dynamics of international trade in goods and services, the aggravation of the global debt problem. Emphasis is placed on the need to form in each country the anti-crisis potential on a scientifically sound basis in order to counter external and internal threats and stimulate sustainable socio-economic development.

The Second Start of Transformation in Ukraine?

2014 ◽  
pp. 30-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Grigoryev ◽  
E. Buryak ◽  
A. Golyashev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
Governance Quality ◽  
Political Turmoil

The Ukrainian socio-economic crisis has been developing for years and resulted in the open socio-political turmoil and armed conflict. The Ukrainian population didn’t meet objectives of the post-Soviet transformation, and people were disillusioned for years, losing trust in the state and the Future. The role of workers’ remittances in the Ukrainian economy is underestimated, since the personal consumption and stability depend strongly on them. Social inequality, oligarchic control of key national assets contributed to instability as well as regional disparity, aggravated by identity differences. Economic growth is slow due to a long-term underinvestment, and prospects of improvement are dependent on some difficult institutional reforms, macro stability, open external markets and the elites’ consensus. Recovering after socio-economic and political crisis will need not merely time, but also governance quality improvement, institutions reform, the investment climate revival - that can be attributed as the second transformation in Ukraine.

Russian low carbon development strategy

2020 ◽  
pp. 51-74
Author(s):  
I. A. Bashmakov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Emission Mitigation ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Scenario Projections

The article presents the key results of scenario projections that underpinned the Strategy for long-term low carbon economic development of the Russian Federation to 2050, including analysis of potential Russia’s GHG emission mitigation commitments to 2050 and assessment of relevant costs, benefits, and implications for Russia’s GDP. Low carbon transformation of the Russian economy is presented as a potential driver for economic growth that offers trillions-of-dollars-worth market niches for low carbon products by mid-21st century. Transition to low carbon economic growth is irreversible. Lagging behind in this technological race entails a security risk and technological backwardness hazards.

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