Advanced MUlti-GNSS Array for Monitoring Severe Weather Events (AMUSE): Project overview

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karina Wilgan ◽  
Jens Wickert ◽  
Galina Dick ◽  
Florian Zus ◽  
Torsten Schmidt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Precise Knowledge ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Data Products ◽  
New Generation ◽  
The Impact

<p>Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) have revolutionized positioning, navigation, and timing, becoming a common part of our everyday life. Aside from these well-known civilian and commercial applications, GNSS is currently established as a powerful and versatile observation tool for geosciences. An outstanding application in this context is the operational monitoring of atmospheric water vapor with high spatiotemporal resolution. The water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas, which accounts for about 70% of atmospheric warming and plays a key role in the atmospheric energy exchange. The precise knowledge of its highly variable spatial and temporal distribution is a precondition for precise modeling of the atmospheric state as a base for numerical weather forecasts especially with focus to the strong precipitation and severe weather events.</p><p>The data from European GNSS networks are widely operationally used to improve regional weather forecasts in several countries. However, the impact of the currently provided data products to the forecast systems is still limited due to the exclusively focusing on GPS-only based data products; to the limited atmospheric information content, which is provided mostly in the zenith direction and to the time delay between measurement and providing the data products, which is currently about one hour.</p><p>AMUSE is a recent research project, funded by the DFG (German Research Council) and performed in close cooperation of TUB, GFZ and DWD during 2020-2022. The project foci are the major limitations of currently operationally used generation of GNSS-based water vapor data. AMUSE will pioneer the development of next generation data products. Main addressed innovations are:  1) Developments to provide multi-GNSS instead of GPS-only data, including GLONASS, Galileo and BeiDou; 2) Developments to provide high quality slant observations, containing water vapor information along the line-of-sight from the respective ground stations; 3) Developments to shorten the delay between measurements and the provision of the products to the meteorological services.</p><p>This GNSS-focused work of AMUSE will be complemented by the contribution of German Weather Service DWD to investigate in detail and to quantify the forecast improvement, which can be reached by the new generation GNSS-based meteorology data. Several dedicated forecast experiments will be conducted with focus on one of the most challenging issues, the precipitation forecast in case of severe weather events. These studies will support the future assimilation of the new generation data to the regional forecast system of DWD and potentially also to other European weather services.</p>

scholarly journals Exploitation of GNSS tropospheric gradients for severe weather Monitoring And Prediction (EGMAP): project overview and status

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Zus ◽  
Galina Dick ◽  
Jens Wickert
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite Systems ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Total Delay ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Data Products ◽  
The Impact

<p>Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) have revolutionized positioning, navigation, and timing, becoming a common part of our everyday life.  A geophysical key application is atmospheric water vapor monitoring using GNSS ground station data. GNSS water vapor data, derived from regional ground networks hereby close gaps in the established meteorological observing systems. No other observing system provides data with such high temporal and spatial resolution. The data from European GNSS networks are therefore already widely operationally used to improve regional weather forecasts in several countries. However, the impact of the currently provided data products to the forecast systems is still limited due to the limited atmospheric information content, which is provided by the currently used Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) data.</p><p>In this talk we introduce the new project EGMAP (Exploitation of GNSS tropospheric gradients for severe weather Monitoring And Prediction). This project will pioneer the development and usage of next generation data products; tropospheric gradients. The new data products, developed and provided within the project, are expected to improve the impact of the currently provided GNSS data to weather forecast systems. The main innovations, which will be addressed by the project are: (1) Developments to provide high quality ZTDs and tropospheric gradients in near-real-time for the German SAPOS network; (2) Developments to make use of ZTDs and tropospheric gradients in numerical weather prediction, i.e., implement operators in the variational/ensemble data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; (3) Impact studies with the state of the art numerical weather model. In this talk we provide an overview and the current status of the project.</p>

scholarly journals Numerical simulations of June 7, 2020 convective precipitation over Slovakia using deterministic, probabilistic, and convection-permitting approaches

Időjárás ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 125 (4) ◽  
pp. 571-607
Author(s):  
André Simon ◽  
Martin Belluš ◽  
Katarína Čatlošová ◽  
Mária Derková ◽  
Martin Dian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Systematic Effect ◽  
The Impact

The paper presented is dedicated to the evaluation of the influence of various improvements to the numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems exploited at the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMÚ). The impact was illustrated in a case study with multicell thunderstorms and the results were confronted with the reference analyses from the INCA nowcasting system, regional radar reflectivity data, and METEOSAT satellite imagery. The convective cells evolution was diagnosed in non-hydrostatic dynamics experiments to study weak mesoscale vortices and updrafts. The growth of simulated clouds and evolution of the temperature at their top were compared with the brightness temperature analyzed from satellite imagery. The results obtained indicated the potential for modeling and diagnostics of small-scale structures within the convective cloudiness, which could be related to severe weather. Furthermore, the non-hydrostatic dynamics experiments related to the stability and performance improvement of the time scheme led to the formulation of a new approach to linear operator definition for semi-implicit scheme (in text referred as NHHY). We demonstrate that the execution efficiency has improved by more than 20%. The exploitation of several high resolution measurement types in data assimilation contributed to more precise position of predicted patterns and precipitation representation in the case study. The non-hydrostatic dynamics provided more detailed structures. On the other hand, the potential of a single deterministic forecast of prefrontal heavy precipitation was not as high as provided by the ensemble system. The prediction of a regional ensemble system A-LAEF (ALARO Limited Area Ensemble Forecast) enhanced the localization of precipitation patterns. Though, this was rather due to the simulation of uncertainty in the initial conditions and also because of the stochastic perturbation of physics tendencies. The various physical parameterization setups of A-LAEF members did not exhibit a systematic effect on precipitation forecast in the evaluated case. Moreover, the ensemble system allowed an estimation of uncertainty in a rapidly developing severe weather case, which was high even at very short range.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Storm Prediction Center's Convective Outlooks and Watches on Emergency Management Operational Planning

2021 ◽  
pp. 36-46
Author(s):  
Heather A. Cross ◽  
Dennis Cavanaugh ◽  
Christopher C. Buonanno ◽  
Amy Hyman
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Emergency Operations ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Storm Prediction ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

For many emergency managers (EMs) and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, Convective Outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) influence the preparation for near-term severe weather events. However, research into how and when EMs utilize that information, and how it influences their emergency operations plan, is limited. Therefore, to better understand how SPC Convective Outlooks are used for severe weather planning, a survey was conducted of NWS core partners in the emergency management sector. The results show EMs prefer to wait until an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms is issued to prepare for severe weather. In addition, the Day 2 Convective Outlook serves as the threshold for higher, value-based decision making. The survey was also used to analyze how the issuance of different risk levels in SPC Convective Outlooks impact emergency management preparedness compared to preparations conducted when a Convective Watch is issued.

Intercomparison and Validation of GNSS-IWV Derived with G-Nut and Bernese Software

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pawel Golaszewski ◽  
Pawel Wielgosz ◽  
Katarzyna Stepniak
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Final Solution ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Software Packages ◽  
Gnss Measurements ◽  
Gnss Data ◽  
Permanent Station

GNSS is an important source of meteorological data. GNSS measurements can provide tropospheric Zenith Wet Delays (ZWD) over wide area covered with permanent stations. In addition, when using surface synoptical data, GNSS can provide Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) which is very valuable information utilized in weather forecasts and severe weather monitoring. Hence, there is a need to test and validate various algorithms and software used for ZWD estimation. In this research, the accuracy of the ZWD estimates was tested using two different software packages: Bernese GNSS Software v.5.2 and G-Nut/Tefnut. In addition, their computational load was evaluated. The GNSS data were obtained from POTS permanent station, which is located in Potsdam, Germany. To validate the estimation results, the derived ZWD was transformed into the IWV, and afterwards compared to the reference IWV measured by the collocated Microwave Radiometer. In addition, the ZWD estimates were also compared to the EUREF final solution.

The Impact of Initial Condition and Warm Conveyor Belt Forecast Uncertainty on Variability in the Downstream Waveguide in an ECWMF Case Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (11) ◽  
pp. 4071-4089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy D. Berman ◽  
Ryan D. Torn
Keyword(s):  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Forecast Uncertainty ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Rossby Wave Breaking ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
The North ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
High Impact Weather ◽  
Sensitivity Method ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Perturbations to the potential vorticity (PV) waveguide, which can result from latent heat release within the warm conveyor belt (WCB) of midlatitude cyclones, can lead to the downstream radiation of Rossby waves, and in turn high-impact weather events. Previous studies have hypothesized that forecast uncertainty associated with diabatic heating in WCBs can result in large downstream forecast variability; however, these studies have not established a direct connection between the two. This study evaluates the potential impact of latent heating variability in the WCB on subsequent downstream forecasts by applying the ensemble-based sensitivity method to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecasts of a cyclogenesis event over the North Atlantic. For this case, ensemble members with a more amplified ridge are associated with greater negative PV advection by the irrotational wind, which is associated with stronger lower-tropospheric southerly moisture transport east of the upstream cyclone in the WCB. This transport is sensitive to the pressure trough to the south of the cyclone along the cold front, which in turn is modulated by earlier differences in the motion of the air masses on either side of the front. The position of the cold air behind the front is modulated by upstream tropopause-based PV anomalies, such that a deeper pressure trough is associated with a more progressive flow pattern, originating from Rossby wave breaking over the North Pacific. Overall, these results suggest that more accurate forecasts of upstream PV anomalies and WCBs may reduce forecast uncertainty in the downstream waveguide.

scholarly journals Verification of NWP Model Analyses and Radiosonde Humidity Data with GPS Precipitable Water Vapor Estimates during AMMA

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 1085-1101 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Bock ◽  
M. Nuret
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Precipitable Water Vapor ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Multidisciplinary Analysis ◽  
Correction Scheme ◽  
Nwp Model

Abstract This paper assesses the performance of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF-IFS) operational analysis and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses I and II over West Africa, using precipitable water vapor (PWV) retrievals from a network of ground-based GPS receivers operated during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). The model analyses show reasonable agreement with GPS PWV from 5-daily to monthly means. Errors increase at shorter time scales, indicating that these global NWP models have difficulty in handling the diurnal cycle and moist processes at the synoptic scale. The ECMWF-IFS analysis shows better agreement with GPS PWV than do the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses (the RMS error is smaller by a factor of 2). The model changes in ECMWF-IFS were not clearly reflected in the PWV error over the period of study (2005–08). Radiosonde humidity biases are diagnosed compared to GPS PWV. The impacts of these biases are evidenced in all three model analyses at the level of the diurnal cycle. The results point to a dry bias in the ECMWF analysis in 2006 when Vaisala RS80-A soundings were assimilated, and a diurnally varying bias when Vaisala RS92 or Modem M2K2 soundings were assimilated: dry during day and wet during night. The overall bias is offset to wetter values in NCEP–NCAR reanalysis II, but the diurnal variation of the bias is observed too. Radiosonde bias correction is necessary to reduce NWP model analysis humidity biases and improve precipitation forecast skill. The study points to a wet bias in the Vaisala RS92 data at nighttime and suggests that caution be used when establishing a bias correction scheme.

The role of gap analyses in energy assurance planning

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 181
Author(s):  
Katherine Shea, JD
Keyword(s):  
Local Governments ◽  
Power Loss ◽  
Gap Analysis ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Power Outages ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
State And Local ◽  
The Impact

Energy-related emergencies, such as power outages or interruptions to other energy supplies, can arise from a number of factors. Common causes include severe weather events—such as snowstorms, hurricanes, or summer storms with strong winds—as well as energy infrastructure that is overburdened, aging, or in need of repair. As past experience indicates, jurisdictions will continue to experience severe weather events, as well as confront infrastructure issues that make future power outages likely. As a result, state and local governments have turned to energy assurance planning, an energy-specific form of planning that helps jurisdictions prepare for and recover from energy emergencies. Energy assurance recognizes that power loss/disruption cannot be eradicated completely, but jurisdictions can mitigate the impact of power loss through effective planning. This article discusses the role of energy assurance planning and provides a description of what energy assurance means and why developing such plans at the state and local levels is important. In addition, this article discusses the role of statutory gap analyses in energy assurance planning and discusses how a gap analysis can be used by planners to identify trends and gaps in energy assurance. To provide context, a recently conducted statutory gap analysis analyzing national emergency backup power trends is provided as a case study. A summary of this project and key findings is included. Finally, this article briefly touches on legislation as an alternative to energy assurance planning, and provides summaries of recent legislative proposals introduced in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.

A comparison between 4D-VAR and cycling 3D-VAR methods for the simulation of a severe weather event in Central Italy. Preliminary results.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincenzo Mazzarella ◽  
Rossella Ferretti
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Severe Weather Event

<p>Nowadays, the use of 4D-VAR assimilation technique has been investigated in several scientific papers with the aim of improving the localization and timing of precipitation in complex orography regions. The results show the positive impact in rainfall forecast but, the need to resolve the tangent linear and adjoint model makes the 4D-VAR computationally too expensive. Hence, it is used in operationally only in large forecast centres. To the aim of exploring a more reasonable method, a comparison between a cycling 3D-VAR, that needs less computational resources, and 4D-VAR techniques is performed for a severe weather event occurred in Central Italy. A cut-off low (992 hPa), located in western side of Sicily region, was associated with a strong south-easterly flow over Central Adriatic region, which supplied a large amount of warm and moist air. This mesoscale configuration, coupled with the Apennines mountain range that further increased the air column instability, produced heavy rainfall in Abruzzo region (Central Italy).</p><p>The numerical simulations are carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In-situ surface and upper-air observations are assimilated in combination with radar reflectivity and radial velocity data over a high-resolution domain. Several experiments have been performed in order to evaluate the impact of 4D-VAR and cycling 3D-VAR in the precipitation forecast. In addition, a statistical analysis has been carried out to objectively compare the simulations. Two different verification approaches are used: Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and Fraction Skill Score (FSS). Both statistical scores are calculated for different threshold values in the study area and in the sub-regions where the maximum rainfall occurred.</p>

scholarly journals Comparisons of the Millimeter and Submillimeter Bands for Atmospheric Temperature and Water Vapor Soundings for Clear and Cloudy Skies

2006 ◽  
Vol 45 (12) ◽  
pp. 1622-1633 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine Prigent ◽  
Juan R. Pardo ◽  
William B. Rossow
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Submillimeter Wave ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
High Frequencies ◽  
Geostationary Satellites ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Cloud Ice ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Geostationary satellites provide revisiting times that are desirable for nowcasting and observations of severe weather. To overcome the problem of spatial resolution from a geostationary orbit, millimeter to submillimeter wave sounders have been suggested. This study compares the capabilities of various oxygen and water vapor millimeter and submillimeter bands for temperature and water vapor atmospheric profiling at nadir in cloudy situations. It shows the impact of different cloud types on the received signal for the different frequency bands. High frequencies are very sensitive to the cloud ice phase, with potential applications to cirrus characterization.

scholarly journals On the Impact and Future Benefits of AMDAR Observations in Operational Forecasting: Part II: Water Vapor Observations

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (11) ◽  
pp. 2117-2133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph Alvin Petersen ◽  
Lee Cronce ◽  
Richard Mamrosh ◽  
Randy Baker ◽  
Patricia Pauley
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Commercial Aircraft ◽  
Vapor Sensing ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Operational Forecasting ◽  
The Us ◽  
Wind Profiles ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Although wind and temperature observations from commercial aircraft have been shown to improve operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) on global and regional scales, the quality and potential importance of newly available moisture observations are less well recognized. Because moisture changes often occur at much smaller scales than wind and temperature variations, these temporally and spatially frequent moisture observations can have exceptionally large impacts on forecasts of disruptive weather events and could help offset the dwindling number of global moisture observations. Currently, more than 148 aircraft-based Water Vapor Sensing Systems (WVSS; 139 operating in the US and 9 in Europe) provide specific humidity observations en route and in 1200 profiles made daily during takeoff/landing. Results of a series of assessments comparing data from initial WVSS sensors installed on 25 United Parcel Service (UPS) Boeing 757 aircraft with collocated raobs show agreement to within 0.5 g kg–1, with minimal biases. Intercomparisons of observations made among nearby aircraft agree to better than 0.2 g kg–1. The combined results suggest that the WVSS measurements are at least as accurate as water vapor observations from high-quality raobs. Information regarding observed spatial and temporal moisture variability could be important in optimizing the use of these observations in future mesoscale assimilation systems. Forecasts of disruptive weather events made by NWS and airline forecasters demonstrate the benefits obtained from combined temperature/moisture/wind profiles acquired during aircraft ascents and descents. Finally, initial NWP impact studies show that WVSS reports that include moisture obtained throughout the day have greater influence than twice-daily raob humidity data on contiguous U.S. (CONUS) forecasts for 24 h and beyond.

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