Technology foresight of ukrainian economy in the medium (up to 2020) and long term (until 2030) time horizons

2016 ◽  
pp. 57-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.Z. Zgurovsky ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Technology Foresight ◽  
Time Horizons

scholarly journals A Hydrological Modeling Approach for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff Regimes in Slovakia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 3358
Author(s):  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Roman Výleta ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Michaela Danáčová ◽  
Milica Aleksić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
The Future

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.

The Resurgence of Interwar Germany

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Edelstein
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Interwar Period ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
Great Power ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
The Soviet Union

While Hitler’s Germany in the 1930’s has received abundant attention, this chapter begins earlier in the interwar period. Throughout the 1920’s, Europe’s great powers debated how to manage a defeated Germany that had the latent power potential to again become a great power. This chapter traces how Great Britain, France, and the Soviet Union addressed this challenge. It argues that all three of these European powers preferred to cooperate with Germany in the short-term rather than paying the high cost of competing with Germany when it had uncertain long-term intentions. This explanation based on time horizons is superior to alternative explanations based on either buckpassing or engagement.

Growth of Demand for Materials with New Properties in Foresight and Strategic Planning

2016 ◽  
Vol 683 ◽  
pp. 15-21
Author(s):  
Anna V. Lozhnikova ◽  
Pyotr P. Shchetinin ◽  
Natalia Skrylnikova ◽  
Natalia Redchikova
Keyword(s):  
Technology Development ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
Technology Foresight ◽  
Critical Importance ◽  
New Materials ◽  
Science And Engineering ◽  
The One ◽  
Object Of Study

The Russian Long-Term Science&Technology Foresight towards 2030 recognizes the critical importance of new materials in virtually all sectors of production, construction, medicine and services. This paper analyzes the essential terminological and content-related problems of foresight categories representation regarding new materials. Besides, the authors consider the development of further measures for direct and indirect (i.e. tax incentives) state support for economic development. The object of study is the science and technology categories “nanotechnologies”, “nanomaterials”, and “nanoproducts”. The study has been conducted using the method of critical technologies. The authors have revealed that the identification of the most promising areas of science and technology development in the framework of foresight, on the one hand, and tax incentives for research and development expenditures, on the other, are asymmetric. The asymmetry is content-related with regard to products and services and, temporal with regard to the duration period. What’s more, it is proposed to expand the current focus of the foresight studies in Russia and ensure that the scope of these studies comprises not only technology but also science and engineering.

Customer Matrix with Different Time Horizons Applied to Electrodischarge Machines

2013 ◽  
Vol 371 ◽  
pp. 220-224
Author(s):  
Daniela Ghiculescu ◽  
Niculae Marinescu ◽  
Daniel Ghiculescu ◽  
Claudiu Pirnău
Keyword(s):  
Time Variable ◽  
Competitive Environment ◽  
Sustainable Competitive Advantage ◽  
Forecast Method ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Perceived Price ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Tree Method

A very effective method to evaluate the products is the Customer Matrix (CM) that uses two coordinates: Perceived Used Value (PUV) and Perceived Price. Our researches extend this basic concept by adding the time variable, creating CM with different time horizons that assures a better understanding of competitive environment. In the first stage, the Customer Matrix is associated with a forecast method. The relevance tree method was used to predict the most probable evolution paths of electrodischarge machines. In the second stage, the CM with different time horizons is constructed, considering products evaluation for short, medium and long time. Finally, a strategy is conceived for an organization that attempts to ameliorate and consolidate its long term position against the main competitors, aiming at obtaining sustainable competitive advantage.

scholarly journals On Retrospecting Human Dynamics with Attention

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minjing Dong ◽  
Chang Xu
Keyword(s):  
Human Motion ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Sufficient Information ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Human Dynamics ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Term Prediction ◽  
Error Accumulation ◽  
Short Term Prediction

Deep recurrent neural networks have achieved impressive success in forecasting human motion with a sequence to sequence architecture. However, forecasting in longer time horizons often leads to implausible human poses or converges to mean poses, because of error accumulation and difficulties in keeping track of longerterm information. To address these challenges, we propose to retrospect human dynamics with attention. A retrospection module is designed upon RNN to regularly retrospect past frames and correct mistakes in time. This significantly improves the memory of RNN and provides sufficient information for the decoder networks to generate longer term prediction. Moreover, we present a spatial attention module to explore and exploit cooperation among joints in performing a particular motion. Residual connections are also included to guarantee the performance of short term prediction. We evaluate the proposed algorithm on the largest and most challenging Human 3.6M dataset in the field. Experimental results demonstrate the necessity of investigating motion prediction in a self audit manner and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in both short term and long term predictions.

Protecting Long-term Commitment

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Levillain ◽  
Simon Parker ◽  
Rory Ridley-Duff ◽  
Blanche Segrestin ◽  
Jeroen Veldman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Board Members ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Credible Commitment ◽  
Open Model ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Modern Corporation ◽  
Organizational Structuring ◽  
Multiple Constituencies

Growing attention is being paid to the benefits of considering the long-term interests of multiple constituencies in corporate governance. A theory of the corporation where fiduciary duties of directors point to the legal entity and not to its shareholders goes beyond a pure prioritization of shareholders’ interests. However, the notion that board members mediate the interests of all constituencies fails to account for a ‘positive’ conception of corporate purpose and underlying asymmetries in allocations of rights between stakeholders. Addressing corporate governance as a fundamentally ‘open’ model for organizational structuring, we engage with a variety of legal mechanisms that can be used to implement and protect a positive purpose for the modern corporation and to protect the conditions of credible commitment to manage the company for the interest of corporate constituencies, to commit the corporation to a social or environmental purpose and to take into account multiple time-horizons.

scholarly journals Going Green Inside and Out: Corporate Environmental Responsibility and Financial Performance under Regulatory Stringency

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3850
Author(s):  
Jongjin Sohn ◽  
Jongseon Lee ◽  
Nami Kim
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Carbon Footprint ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Corporate Environmental Responsibility ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Internal Operations ◽  
The Relationship

While researchers have long examined the relationship between corporate environmental responsibility (CER) and financial performance, the evidence remains inconclusive. Moreover, whether sustainable supply chain management plays a role in enhancing the financial performance of focal firms has yet to be fully investigated. As firms’ investment in CER often pays off in the long-term, applying multiple time horizons, short- to long-term considerations, is needed to determine the effects of CER. This study examined the role of CER in improving financial performance based on multiple time horizons. In particular, the effects of CER on financial performance were explored in terms of internal operations and supply chains. The moderating effects of regulatory stringency on the relationship between CER and a firm’s short- or long-term financial performance were also investigated. Firms’ CER was studied using carbon data from Trucost. Carbon footprint can be an appropriate proxy for CER, as it provides information on supply partners’ environmental concerns. A unique dataset of the carbon footprint of 714 North American firms in 19 industry sectors in 2003–2010 was used. The results indicated that firms benefit from CER not only in their internal operations but also in their supply chains in both the short and long-terms. The moderating effects of regulatory stringency were significant for CER only in terms of the supply chain but not for internal operations. In industries with a high level of regulatory stringency, the positive effects of CER on short-term financial performance in the supply chain become weaker, but the same effects on long-term financial performance become stronger. By investigating the effects of two distinct carbon footprint aspects on financial performance at different time horizons, this study sheds light on the importance of CER in firms’ internal operations and supply chains.

Simulating the impact of future climate change on runoff processes in selected catchments of Slovakia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Výleta ◽  
Milica Aleksić ◽  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Kamila Hlavcova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>The future development of the runoff conditions, as a consequence of climate change, is of great interest for water managers. Information about the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime is needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection.</p><p>The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on the runoff regime in five selected catchments located in the territory of Slovakia. Changes in climatic characteristics (i.e., precipitation and air temperature) for future time horizons were prepared by a regional climate model KNMI using the A1B emission scenario. The selected climatic scenario predicts a general increase in air temperature and precipitation (higher in winter than in summer). For simulations of runoff under changed conditions, a lumped rainfall-runoff model (the TUW model) was used. This model belongs to a group of conceptual models and follows a structure of a widely used Swedish HBV model. The TUW model was calibrated for the period of 2011 – 2019. We assumed that this period would be similar (to recent/warmer climate) in terms of the average daily air temperatures and daily precipitation totals. The future changes in runoff due to climate change were evaluated by comparing the simulated long-term mean monthly runoff for the current state (1981-2010) and modelled scenarios in three time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). The results indicate that changes in the long-term runoff seasonality and extremality of hydrological cycle could be expected in the future. The runoff should increase in winter months compared to the reference period. This increase is probably related to a rise in temperature and anticipated snowmelt. Conversely, during the summer periods, a decrease in the long-term runoff could be assumed. According to modelling, these changes will be more pronounced in the later time horizons.</p><p>It should be noted that the results of the simulation are dependent on the availability of the inputs, the hydrological/climate model used, the schematization of the simulated processes, etc. Therefore, they need to be interpreted with a sufficient degree of caution</p>

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