Composite Quantile Probability Predictions: Performance and Coherence Analysis of US COVID-19 Confirmed Infection Cases

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 471-489
Author(s):  
Mary E. Thomson ◽  
Andrew C. Pollock ◽  
Jennifer Murray

An analytical framework is presented for the evaluation of composite probability forecasts using empirical quantiles. The framework is demonstrated via the examination of forecasts of the changes in the number of US COVID-19 confirmed infection cases, applying 18 two-week ahead quantile forecasts from four forecasting organisations. The forecasts are analysed individually for each organisation and in combinations of organisational forecasts to ascertain the highest level of performance. It is shown that the relative error reduction achieved by combining forecasts depends on the extent to which the component forecasts contain independent information. The implications of the study are discussed, suggestions are offered for future research and potential limitations are considered.

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-163
Author(s):  
Mary E. Thomson ◽  
◽  
Andrew C. Pollock ◽  
Jennifer Murray ◽  
◽  
...  

An analytical framework is presented for the evaluation of quantile probability forecasts. It is demonstrated using weekly quantile forecasts of changes in the number of US COVID-19 deaths. Empirical quantiles are derived using the assumption that daily changes in a variable follow a normal distribution with time varying means and standard deviations, which can be assumed constant over short horizons such as one week. These empirical quantiles are used to evaluate quantile forecasts using the Mean Squared Quantile Score (MSQS), which, in turn, is decomposed into sub-components involving bias, resolution and error variation to identify specific aspects of performance, which highlight the strengths and weaknesses of forecasts. The framework is then extended to test if performance enhancement can be achieved by combining diverse forecasts from different sources. The demonstration illustrates that the technique can effectively evaluate quantile forecasting performance based on a limited number of data points, which is crucial in emergency situations such as forecasting pandemic behavior. It also shows that combining the predictions with quantile probability forecasts generated from an Autoregressive Order One, AR(1) model provided substantially improved performance. The implications of these findings are discussed, suggestions are offered for future research and potential limitations are considered.


2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 481-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Trøst Hansen ◽  
David Budtz Pedersen ◽  
Carmel Foley

The meetings industry, government bodies, and scholars within tourism studies have identified the need to understand the broader impact of business events. To succeed in this endeavor, we consider it necessary to develop analytical frameworks that are sensitive to the particularities of the analyzed event, sector, and stakeholder group. In this article we focus on the academic sector and offer two connected analyses. First is an empirically grounded typology of academic events. We identify four differentiating dimensions of academic events: size, academic focus, participants, and tradition, and based on these dimensions we develop a typology of academic events that includes: congress, specialty conference, symposium, and practitioners' meeting. Secondly, we outline the academic impact of attending these four types of events. For this purpose, the concept of credibility cycles is used as an analytical framework for examining academic impact. We suggest that academic events should be conceptualized and evaluated as open marketplaces that facilitate conversion of credibility. Data were obtained from interviews with 22 researchers at three Danish universities. The study concludes that there are significant differences between the events in terms of their academic impact. Moreover, the outcome for the individual scholar depends on the investment being made. Finally, the study calls for a future research agenda on beyond tourism benefits based on interdisciplinary collaborations.


2021 ◽  
pp. 002085232110317
Author(s):  
Tobias Polzer ◽  
Isabella M Nolte ◽  
Johann Seiwald

Gender budgeting calls for including a gender perspective at all levels of governmental budgetary processes. While the literature on gender budgeting is interdisciplinary and covers a wide geographical range, it remains fragmented. This study uses a literature review to examine the current discourse on gender budgeting and to elicit avenues for future research. Our review shows that studies focus either on emerging economies, such as India or South Africa, or on countries in Europe. Drawing on an analytical framework, we find that most studies scrutinize the ex ante stages of gender budgeting, whereas less is known about the concurrent and ex post stages. Moreover, because little is known about the outcome and impact of gender budgeting, governments do not know what instruments function best in different settings. Given their ex ante focus, most studies on gender budgeting often either remain descriptive or analyse secondary data. Despite scholars from different disciplines contributing to the field of gender budgeting, several ‘blank spots’ remain, particularly in public sector accounting. Points for practitioners While current gender budgeting projects tend to focus on the ex ante stage of gender budgeting, future practitioner attention needs to focus on the equally important concurrent and ex post stages, which have received less attention thus far. An increasing number of governments worldwide are implementing gender budgeting projects. Governments need to evaluate the outcome and impact of these projects in a timely fashion, aiming at reducing structural inequalities related to gender. Gender budgeting is willingly adopted in times of prosperity and stability or when the scope of projects appears manageable. To avoid negative impacts on their achievements, policy makers need to put gender budgeting on the political agenda and institutionalize it in times of instability and crisis.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-52
Author(s):  
Sui He

Abstract Cognitive metaphor theory provides a systematic framework to better understand the working mechanism of metaphor. Its recent development further allows translation researchers to have a clearer insight into the movement of metaphor across languages and culture. Building on an empirical study, this paper examines the complementary relationship between two prominent cognitive metaphor theories – Conceptual Metaphor Theory (CMT) and Conceptual Blending Theory (CBT), and discusses the practical contribution that this relationship could make to the existing research on metaphor translation. To construct a comparable basis for CMT and CBT, two parameters are adopted for data analysis, which is proven useful to serve the purpose. The two chosen parameters are: projection and provenance, denoting the content and the type of metaphor respectively. Metaphorical expressions analyzed in this paper are sourced from cosmology-themed articles published in Scientific American in 2017 and their Simplified Chinese translations published in Huanqiukexue. Findings show that delineated by the two parameters, CMT and CBT indeed share a complementary relationship owing to their different focuses and organizing mechanisms. Furthermore, the collaboration between CMT and CBT offers a well-rounded analytical framework for translation studies. In turn, the correlation between metaphor parameters and translation solutions provides detailed clues for studying metaphor across culture. Finally, the reflection of this dual-model parametric approach regarding its pros and cons is also shown to shed light on future research.


2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Hackley ◽  
Amy Rungpaka Hackley

In the media convergence era, brands are embracing hybrid forms of advertising communication such as branded content, product placement and sponsored TV ‘pods’, brand blogs, shareable video, programmatic advertising, ‘native’ advertising and more, as alternatives to, and extensions of, traditional mass media advertising campaigns. In this article, we draw on Genette’s theory of transtextuality to reframe this phenomenon from a paratextual purview. We suggest that the analogy of the paratext articulates the iterative, ambiguous, participative and intertextual character of much contemporary brand communication. We describe extended examples of paratextual advertising and promotion that illustrate the fluid and mutually contingent relation of advertising text to paratext, and we outline an analytical framework for future research and practice.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maja Steen Møller ◽  
Anton Stahl Olafsson

In the unfolding reality of advanced internet-based communication tools, the possibilities and implications for citizens’ e-engagement is revealing. The paper introduces different examples of e-tools used in participatory urban green infrastructure governance. E-tools here includes various location-based service apps, and volunteered geographic information stemming from social media activities, as well as public participation geographic information system approaches. Through an analytical framework describing five categories, we discuss the different scopes and possibilities, as well as general barriers and problems to participatory e-tools. We suggest some basic premises for the application of e-tools in urban green infrastructure governance and discussed future development of this field. E-tools can allow interaction between citizens, public authorities, and other stakeholders; however, research on the implications of such location-based governance is needed to make full use of the rapid on-going development of such information and communication technologies, and to avoid possible pitfalls. We suggest that future research into this area of environmental–social–technical solutions should test, discuss, and develop frameworks and standards, for the use of different e-tools in combination with offline approaches.


2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ju Liu

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to contextually theorise the different patterns of emerging multinational companies’ (EMNCs’) learning processes for innovation and the different influences of their technology-driven FDIs (TFDIs) on the processes. Design/methodology/approach A comparative case study method and process tracing technique are employed to investigate how and why firms’ learning processes for innovation took place, how and why the TFDIs emerged and influenced the firms’ learning processes in different ways. Findings The paper identifies two different patterns of learning process for innovation (Glider model vs Helicopter model) and two different roles of the case firms’ TFDIs (accelerator vs starter) in the different contexts of their learning processes. It is found that the capability building of the domestic wind energy industry has an important influence on the case of EMNCs’ learning processes and thus on the roles of their TFDIs. Research limitations/implications The limitation of the paper lies in its small number of cases in a specific industry of a specific country. The two contextually identified learning models and roles of TFDIs may not be applied to other industries or other countries. Future research should investigate more cases in broader sectoral and geographic scope to test the models and also to identify new models. Practical implications For EMNCs, who wants to use the Helicopter model to rapidly gain production and innovation capability, cross-cultural management and integration management are crucial to practitioners. For emerging countries with ambitions to explore the global knowledge and technology pool, besides of the EMNC’s capability building, the capability building in the domestic industries should not be overlooked by policy makers. Originality/value The paper develops a dynamic and contextual analytical framework which helps to answer the important questions about how and under what context a TFDI emerges and influences firm’s learning process for innovation. It theorises the EMNCs’ learning process and TFDIs in the context of the development of the domestic industry. It strengthens the explanatory power of the learning-based view and adds new knowledge to the current FSA/CSA discourse in the international business literature.


2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uladzimir Kamovich ◽  
Lene Foss

This study uses the concept of alignment as a framework to examine empirical research on the impact of entrepreneurship education interventions on students. Alignment assumes that effective instruction requires congruence between three instructional components: intended outcomes, instructional processes, and assessment criteria. Given the extant diversity and complexity of entrepreneurship education impact, scholars have not been able to explain how teaching approaches and methods are being adjusted to the variety of expected outcomes. In order to address this gap, we critically reviewed the published empirical studies on entrepreneurship education impact in 20 journals over a 15-year period (2000–2015). We found 16 empirical studies that met our inclusion criteria. Our findings revealed that teaching objectives, teaching methods, and teaching content receive scant attention from researchers. This study will be of value to scholars researching the impact of heterogeneous entrepreneurship education practices and approaches on individuals. Our analytical framework could contribute to less contradictory findings of entrepreneurship education impact studies. We also identify research limitations and suggest avenues for future research.


2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 607-630 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junbin Wang ◽  
Xiaojun Fan

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of manufacturers’ co-production strategy on market segmentation and channel performance under retail competition. Design/methodology/approach It differs from previous empirical studies by primarily focusing on the increment in consumer value accompanying co-production. The authors establish a game-theoretical model to analyze the impact of co-production on market segmentation and the profitability of channel members in a competitive retail environment. Findings The results reveal that manufacturers introducing co-production expand market coverage and benefit all channel members, when the intensity of competition is sufficiently high, especially for retailers with low-quality levels, who are out of the market without co-production. Furthermore, with the increase in customer valuation through co-production, employing a co-production strategy is always a dominant strategy for manufacturers. Research limitations/implications First, although the authors assume a monopoly manufacturer and two duopoly retailers, adding competition between manufacturers should enrich the model. Multiple products with vertical or horizontal differentiation could also be introduced into the model. Second, the authors use the multiplicative utility function to model the value co-creation effect on consumers; however, different utility functions may yield significantly different results and implications. Third, the authors model a one-shot game in a single product selling period; future studies may employ multi-period games to obtain further insight into co-production strategy. Finally, the model assumes that all consumers are homogenous in the extent of value creation and hassle cost. Future research may find it interesting to consider heterogeneity in these characteristics. Practical implications The business world today already sees the power of leadership in a supply chain to have shifted from manufacturers to retail giants such as Walmart, Home Depot and Best Buy. The findings also propose a new route to counteract the emergence and rise of dominant retailers. On the other hand, with the application of new technology in the retail industry such as 3D avatar, AR/VR, Internet of Things, consumers are more likely to participate in various forms of co-production activities, how to execute the co-production strategy has become more and more important for managers. Social implications The conclusion of this study points out the way to achieve a win–win outcome under which both channel members including manufacturer and retailers and consumers can be better off, that is, the channel can reach Pareto improvement, so the social welfare is increased accordingly. Originality/value The authors propose an analytical framework to examine the effects of co-production and competition on market segmentation and profitability, and prove that co-production is a powerful marketing tool that can attract consumers and increase profitability, which manufacturers can incorporate into their products even in a competitive environment.


Author(s):  
Matthias M. Meyer ◽  
Andreas H. Glas ◽  
Michael Eßig

Abstract Additive manufacturing (AM) is regarded as a technology that has transformative and disruptive potential in nearly all industries. However, AM is not only about new production equipment and processes. Given the decreasing degree of vertical integration in many companies, suppliers add significant value to the finished product. AM might lead to the redesign of production networks, including a scenario in which the buyer uses AM to produce parts with data provided by suppliers. Overall, AM could have a major impact on the ways in which buyers and suppliers collaborate in the future. Nevertheless, research on AM in the field of industrial procurement remains scarce. This is surprising, given that AM is not only changing traditional procurement categories and creating new ones (comprising printers, powder raw materials, data and the associated engineering services) but AM’s widely discussed potential for decentralisation might also restructure the logistical aspects (transport, stocks) of supply chains. In addition, AM may resurrect the old procurement question of ‘make or buy’. Current research focuses on the logistical aspects of AM and concerns such issues of decentralisation (such as the diminishing need for transportation and the design of transport networks). In contrast, this research addresses the question of whether AM demands new answers to strategic sourcing questions. For this purpose, academic journal literature concerning procurement and AM search strings is reviewed. Selected articles are analysed using a fine-grained analytical framework of procurement strategies. The findings show that existing research lacks theoretical approaches and a systematic view of the topic. Specifically, the analysis reveals a number of distinct knowledge gaps, which present several potential directions for future research.


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