scholarly journals The Spread of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Russian Regions in 2020: Models and Reality

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1079-1095
Author(s):  
A.N. Pilyasov ◽  
◽  
N. YU. Zamyatina ◽  
E.A. Kotov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Retail Trade ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Spatial Diffusion ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Qualitative Model ◽  
Significant Discrepancy ◽  
Model Network ◽  
Physical Density ◽  
The Impact

Considering the widespread of Covid-19 and its impact on the population health in Russian regions, it is necessary to examine the impact of the pandemic (as excess mortality) on the regional socio-economic development in 2020. Based on a quantitative and qualitative model, the study explains the process of coronavirus diffusion at the regional level, using information from foreign publications, Russian regional statistics and a database of legal documents «Consultant +». The concept of spatial diffusion, developed in the 1950s-1980s, was chosen as the research methodology. The study methods include a cartographic analysis of the monthly dynamics of coronavirus spread in Russian regions and regression analysis of regional differences in excess mortality regarding the most significant explanatory variables. The developed regression model explains the spread of Covid-19 across Russian regions in 2020, while the proposed qualitative model «network-place-scaling» describes the spatial diffusion of the virus. The conducted analysis confirmed the relationship between the spread of the virus and economic specialisation of regions. Simultaneously, such widely discussed factors as physical density, urbanisation level and per capita income did not show significant correlation with excess mortality. The study revealed the following results. There is a significant discrepancy between the actual situation in Russian regions and expected developments according to the simplified centre-periphery model. The important regression variables, explaining the interregional differences in excess mortality in 2020, include the share of employed in contact-intensive wholesale and retail trade and manufacturing (large production teams); proportion of the population over 65; the number of retail facilities per 1000 people. The qualitative model «network-place-scaling» was deemed suitable for explaining the mechanisms of the spread of coronavirus in Russian regions. Future studies should focus on examining the mechanisms and socio-economic consequences of the pandemic at the municipal level of large cities and urban agglomerations in Russia.

scholarly journals Spatial Diffusion of Digital Innovations: Trends, Problems and Prospects of Empirical Research

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 118-142
Author(s):  
Viktor Blanutsa ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Research ◽  
Diffusion Processes ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Bibliographic Databases ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Spatial Diffusion ◽  
Significant Discrepancy ◽  
Regional Economic Policy ◽  
The Impact

The aim of the study was to generalize the world experience of studying the spatial diffusion of digital innovations in order to determine trends in changing priorities, existing problems and possible prospects for empirical research. With the help of the author’s semantic search algorithm, approximately eighty journal articles published in the last twenty years were found in eight bibliographic databases. The use of a moving average and biproportional indices for quantitative analysis of the array of articles revealed four upward trends: an increase in the average annual number of publications on the subject under consideration, increased attention to the deployment of broadband communications, the impact of spatial diffusion on economic growth and the use of regions as territorial units for studying diffusion processes. An informal analysis of the articles led to the identification of five key problems of modern research: a significant discrepancy between the year of publication and the last year of the process under study, analysis of a limited number of digital innovations, lack of a comprehensive understanding of the joint spatial diffusion of several innovations, the dominance of the idea of the homogeneity for the initial territorial units and the unexplored system of factors contributing to or hindering the spread of digital innovations. Comparing the existing experience of studying the spatial diffusion of digital innovations with similar studies of other types of innovations allowed identifying five promising areas for further research: the use of big data; expanding the set of models used with the subsequent creation of a system of methods; the study of hierarchical, network and other methods of spatial diffusion; the definition of spatial innovation waves with an explanation of the reasons for the formation of territorial barriers and filters; creation of a theory of the spatiotemporal spread of digital innovations based on the generalization of empirical research. The necessity of determining the scope of application of the results obtained in diffusion studies outside of regional economic policy is noted

scholarly journals The impact of physician migration on mortality in low and middle-income countries: an economic modelling study

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. e001535
Author(s):  
Saurabh Saluja ◽  
Niclas Rudolfson ◽  
Benjamin Ballard Massenburg ◽  
John G Meara ◽  
Mark G Shrime
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
National Income ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Physician Migration ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Low And Middle Income

BackgroundThe WHO estimates a global shortage of 2.8 million physicians, with severe deficiencies especially in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). The unequitable distribution of physicians worldwide is further exacerbated by the migration of physicians from LMICs to high-income countries (HIC). This large-scale migration has numerous economic consequences which include increased mortality associated with inadequate physician supply in LMICs.MethodsWe estimate the economic cost for LMICs due to excess mortality associated with physician migration. To do so, we use the concept of a value of statistical life and marginal mortality benefit provided by physicians. Uncertainty of our estimates is evaluated with Monte Carlo analysis.ResultsWe estimate that LMICs lose US$15.86 billion (95% CI $3.4 to $38.2) annually due to physician migration to HICs. The greatest total costs are incurred by India, Nigeria, Pakistan and South Africa. When these costs are considered as a per cent of gross national income, the cost is greatest in the WHO African region and in low-income countries.ConclusionThe movement of physicians from lower to higher income settings has substantial economic consequences. These are not simply the result of the movement of human capital, but also due to excess mortality associated with loss of physicians. Valuing these costs can inform international and domestic policy discussions that are meant to address this issue.

Investment climate and government turnover in russian regions

2014 ◽  
pp. 88-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Syunyaev ◽  
L. Polishchuk
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Regional Data ◽  
Endogenous Property Rights ◽  
The Impact

We study the impact of Russian regional governors’ rotation and their affiliation with private sector firms for the quality of investment climate in Russian regions. A theoretical model presented in the paper predicts that these factors taken together improve “endogenous” property rights under authoritarian regimes. This conclusion is confirmed empirically by using Russian regional data for 2002—2010; early in that period gubernatorial elections had been canceled and replaced by federal government’s appointments. This is an indication that under certain conditions government rotation is beneficial for economic development even when democracy is suppressed.

Impact of regulatory framework rigidity on poverty in the regions of Russia

2020 ◽  
pp. 62-79
Author(s):  
P. N. Pavlov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Institutional Factors ◽  
Federal Regulations ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Poverty Dynamics ◽  
Regulatory Burden ◽  
Sectoral Structure ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The paper analyzes the impact of the federal regulatory burden on poverty dynamics in Russia. The paper provides regional level indices of the federal regulatory burden on the economy in 2008—2018 which take into account sectoral structure of regions’ output and the level of regulatory rigidity of federal regulations governing certain types of economic activity. Estimates of empirical specifications of poverty theoretical model with the inclusion of macroeconomic and institutional factors shows that limiting the scope of the rulemaking activity of government bodies and weakening of new regulations rigidity contributes to a statistically significant reduction in the level of poverty in Russian regions. Cancellation of 10% of accumulated federal level requirements through the “regulatory guillotine” administrative reform may take out of poverty about 1.1—1.4 million people.

Retrospective analysis of the resilience of Russian regions as socio-economic systems

2019 ◽  
pp. 46-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir V. Klimanov ◽  
Sofiya М. Kazakova ◽  
Anna A. Mikhaylova
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Integral Index ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Correlation Dependence ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The article examines the impact of various socio-economic and financial indicators on the resilience of Russian regions. For each region, the integral index of resilience is calculated, and its correlation dependence with the selected indicators is revealed. The study confirms the relationship between fiscal resilience and socio-economic resilience of the regions. The analysis of panel data for 75 regions from 2007 to 2016 shows that there are significant differences in the dynamics of indicators in different periods. In particular, the degree of exposure to the negative effects of the crises of 2008—2009 and 2014—2015 in non-resilient regions is higher than in resilient ones.

The Role of Threat and Economic Uncertainty in Support for Scottish Independence

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Kopasker
Keyword(s):  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Perceived Threat ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Levels Of Support

Existing research has consistently shown that perceptions of the potential economic consequences of Scottish independence are vital to levels of support for constitutional change. This paper attempts to investigate the mechanism by which expectations of the economic consequences of independence are formed. A hypothesised causal micro-level mechanism is tested that relates constitutional preferences to the existing skill investments of the individual. Evidence is presented that larger skill investments are associated with a greater likelihood of perceiving economic threats from independence. Additionally, greater perceived threat results in lower support for independence. The impact of uncertainty on both positive and negative economic expectations is also examined. While uncertainty has little effect on negative expectations, it significantly reduces the likelihood of those with positive expectations supporting independence. Overall, it appears that a general economy-wide threat is most significant, and it is conjectured that this stems a lack of information on macroeconomic governance credentials.

The ‘Modernisation’ of Scotland and its Impact on Glasgow, 1955–1979: ‘Unwanted Side Effects’ and Vulnerabilities

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 294-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chik Collins ◽  
Ian Levitt
Keyword(s):  
Side Effects ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Regional Policy ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The Impact

This article reports findings of research into the far-reaching plan to ‘modernise’ the Scottish economy, which emerged from the mid-late 1950s and was formally adopted by government in the early 1960s. It shows the growing awareness amongst policy-makers from the mid-1960s as to the profoundly deleterious effects the implementation of the plan was having on Glasgow. By 1971 these effects were understood to be substantial with likely severe consequences for the future. Nonetheless, there was no proportionate adjustment to the regional policy which was creating these understood ‘unwanted’ outcomes, even when such was proposed by the Secretary of State for Scotland. After presenting these findings, the paper offers some consideration as to their relevance to the task of accounting for Glasgow's ‘excess mortality’. It is suggested that regional policy can be seen to have contributed to the accumulation of ‘vulnerabilities’, particularly in Glasgow but also more widely in Scotland, during the 1960s and 1970s, and that the impact of the post-1979 UK government policy agenda on these vulnerabilities is likely to have been salient in the increase in ‘excess mortality’ evident in subsequent years.

Pound Wise and Penny Foolish? Weight Loss and The Dynamics of Health Care Spending

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas G Koch
Keyword(s):  
Weight Loss ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Health Care Spending ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Dynamic Measures ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Current estimates of obesity costs ignore the impact of future weight loss and gain, and may either over or underestimate economic consequences of weight loss. In light of this, I construct static and dynamic measures of medical costs associated with body mass index (BMI), to be balanced against the cost of one-time interventions. This study finds that ignoring the implications of weight loss and gain over time overstates the medical-cost savings of such interventions by an order of magnitude. When the relationship between spending and age is allowed to vary, weight-loss attempts appear to be cost-effective starting and ending with middle age. Some interventions recently proven to decrease weight may also be cost-effective.

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