scholarly journals Using Fishburne’s sequences in suitable modeling used for sample data

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 50-60
Author(s):  
Anatoliy Sigal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Linear Order ◽  
Order Relation ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Statistical Estimates ◽  
The Third ◽  
Unknown Probability ◽  
Sample Data

This article deals with probabilistic and statistical modeling of managerial decision-making in the economy based on sample data for the previous periods of time. For better definition, the study is limited to Markowitz’s models in the problem of finding an effective portfolio of the field in the third information situation. The third information situation is a widespread decision-making situation and is characterized by the fact that the decision-maker sets, according to his opinion, are a linear order relation on the components of an unknown probabilistic distribution of the states of the economic environment. Often, from the point of view of the decision-maker, the components of an unknown probability distribution of the states of the economic environment must satisfy a partially reinforced linear order relation. As a result, the use of traditional statistical estimates turns out to be impossible, while the following question arises, which is practically not studied in the scientific literature. In this case, what formulas should be used to find statistical estimates and, above all, estimates of unknown probabilities of the state of the economic environment? As an estimate of an unknown probability distribution, we proposed to use the Fishburne sequence that satisfies all available constraints, while corresponding to the opinion of the decision maker and the linear order relation given by him. Fishburne sequences are a generalization of the well-known Fishburne formulas. It is fundamentally important that any Fishburne sequence satisfies a simple linear order relation, and under certain conditions, a partially strengthened linear order relation. Particular attention is paid to the entropic properties of generalized Fishburne progressions, which represent the most important class of Fishburne sequences, as well as the use of generalized Fishburne progressions to take into account the opinion of the decision maker. Such a scheme for estimating an unknown probability distribution has been developed, which makes it possible to achieve the correctness of probabilistic and statistical modeling, as well as appropriate consideration of the opinion of the decision-maker, uncertainty and risk.

scholarly journals Economic policy and statistics.

1966 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-69
Author(s):  
S.L. Louwes
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Decision Theory ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Optimum Result ◽  
Whole Process

The discrepancy between the develoment of agricultural policy and the situation of agricultural statistics in the EEC is noted and this leads to the question of the connexion between policy and statistics. An attempt is made to assemble the whole process of decision making in one analytical framework in order to attain the optimum result. An introductory section is followed by: (2) Decision theory; (3) The function of statistics in formulating economic policy; (4) The economic aspect of statistics; and (5) examples (fictitious). It is concluded that modern decision theory turns on the realization that the uncertainty involved in almost every decision must be specifically incorporated in the mechanism by which the decision is taken and cannot be eliminated by using some probability distribution, because it can only be evaluated by the decision maker. Finally, the advantages of the method for the policy-making body, the analyst and the statistician are summarized. A. T. S. (Abstract retrieved from CAB Abstracts by CABI’s permission)

STRATEGI MAKSIMALISASI ANGGARAN BELANJA PADA BALAI PENELITIAN DAN PENGEMBANGAN LINGKUNGAN HIDUP DAN KEHUTANAN MANOKWARI

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arif Hasan ◽  
Dedi Budiman Hakim ◽  
Irdika Mansur
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
The Third ◽  
Swot Matrix ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
Using Data

This study aims to analyze causes of the low uptake of the budget and formulate a strategy of maximizing the absorption of expenditure on Balai Penelitian dan Pengembangan Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan Manokwari. Respondents involved are 20 people that consist of: treasury officials and holder output of activity. The data used were secondary data in the form of reports on budget realization (LRA) quarter I, II, III and IV of the fiscal year 2011 to 2015, and the primary data were in the form of interviews with the help of a questionnaire. While the analysis of the data used was descriptive analysis using data tabulation, and the analysis of the three stages strategy of the decision making used IFE and EFE matrix, SWOT matrix and QSPM matrix.The results showed that there are 19 factors causing low of budget absorption until the end of the third quarter, and there were 10 drafts of policy as a strategy for maximizing the absorption of the budget on Balai Penelitian dan Pengembangan Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan Manokwari.ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis penyebab rendahnya penyerapan anggaran belanja dan merumuskan strategi maksimalisasi penyerapan anggaran belanja pada Balai Penelitian dan Pengembangan Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan Manokwari. Responden yang terlibat adalah 20 orang yaitu pejabat perbendaharaan dan pemegang output kegiatan. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berupa laporan realisasi anggaran (LRA) triwulan I, II, III dan IV tahun anggaran 2011 sampai 2015, dan data primer berupa wawancara dengan bantuan kuesioner. Sedangkan analisis data yang digunakan adalah analisis deskriptif menggunakan analisis tabulasi, dan analisis analisis strategi tiga tahap pengambilan keputusan menggunakan matriks IFE dan EFE, matriks SWOT dan matriks QSPM. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat 19 faktor penyebab rendahnya penyerapan anggaran belanja sampai akhir triwulan III, dan terdapat 10 rancangan kebijakan sebagai strategi maksimalisasi penyerapan anggaran belanja di Balai Penelitian dan Pengembangan Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan Manokwari.

Marketing Responsible Drinking Effectively to Young Adults

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Colby Doyle ◽  
Matthew Gaudet ◽  
Dominic Lay ◽  
Amber McLeod ◽  
Robert Schaeffer
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Drinking Patterns ◽  
Major Question ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Third ◽  
Current Consumption ◽  
Sample Data ◽  
Vague Quantifiers ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Alberta Health

The primary goal of this research is to identify and examine the components of responsible drinking advertisements. We will examine industry and government related advertisements as we try to understand one of our major questions: does the source influence the validity of the message? The next group of major questions that we will be looking to answer is how are the vague quantifiers used in responsible drinking campaigns interpreted by the public?  How many drinks do people consider “too much?” What does “drink responsibly” really mean? The third major question is whether or not an individual’s current consumption patterns of alcohol have any effect on how individuals assess responsible drinking campaigns. Our qualitative research has indicated that social influences can be strongly related with drinking patterns; this will be further examined in our quantitative research. Also, we will be looking into some of the psychology behind industry and government sponsored advertisements as well as gathering and interpreting information from a sample of our target demographic. Our target demographic consists of both male and females between the ages 18-24. Our literature review and qualitative analysis gave us good insight into some of the potential answers to our questions. We will use these potential answers from our previous research to guide us as we attempt to conduct conclusive research based on a sample data of 169 individuals. Our findings will aid us in developing conclusions and recommendations for Alberta Health Services.

A preliminary study of gray matter volume differences related to context-dependent and independent decision-making

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang Jinbo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Gray Matter ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Gray Matter Volume ◽  
Neural Basis ◽  
Matter Volume ◽  
Decision Styles ◽  
Context Dependent ◽  
Independent Decision

Facing the high degree of uncertainty of the environment, we have evolved two kinds of decision-making styles: context-dependent and context-independent decision. However, the underlying neural basis of these two kinds of decision styles was mostly unknown. Here, the cognitive bias task was applied to split participants into the context-independent decision-maker and context-dependent decision-maker based on the cognitive bias task scores. Then, we used voxel-based morphometry to directly investigate its underlying differences in gray matter volume. We found that the gray matter volume of the prefrontal cortex and parietal regions, such as inferior parietal lobule, was larger in context-dependent decision-makers than that of the context-independent decision-maker.

scholarly journals Cancer Patients: Their Desire for Information and Participation in Treatment Decisions

1989 ◽  
Vol 82 (5) ◽  
pp. 260-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
H J Sutherland ◽  
H A Llewellyn-Thomas ◽  
G A Lockwood ◽  
D L Tritchler ◽  
J E Till
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Treatment Decisions ◽  
Autonomous Decision ◽  
Disclosure Of Information ◽  
Participation In Decision Making ◽  
Psychological Autonomy ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between cancer patients’ desire for information and their preference for participation in decision making has been examined. Approximately 77% of the 52 patients reported that they had participated in decision making to the extent that they wished, while most of the remaining 23% would have preferred an opportunity to have greater input. Although many of the patients actively sought information, a majority preferred the physician to assume the role of the primary decision maker. Ethically, the disclosure of information has been assumed to be necessary for autonomous decision making. Nevertheless, the results of this study indicate that patients may actively seek information to satisfy an as yet unidentified aspect of psychological autonomy that does not necessarily include participation in decision making.

scholarly journals Constraints on probability distributions of grammatical forms

Psihologija ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-35
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Kostic ◽  
Milena Bozic
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Relative Entropy ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
The Third ◽  
Singular Form ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Grammatical Number ◽  
Morphological System

In this study we investigate the constraints on probability distribution of grammatical forms within morphological paradigms of Serbian language, where paradigm is specified as a coherent set of elements with defined criteria for inclusion. Thus, for example, in Serbian all feminine nouns that end with the suffix "a" in their nominative singular form belong to the third declension, the declension being a paradigm. The notion of a paradigm could be extended to other criteria as well, hence, we can think of noun cases, irrespective of grammatical number and gender, or noun gender, irrespective of case and grammatical number, also as paradigms. We took the relative entropy as a measure of homogeneity of probability distribution within paradigms. The analysis was performed on 116 morphological paradigms of typical Serbian and for each paradigm the relative entropy has been calculated. The obtained results indicate that for most paradigms the relative entropy values fall within a range of 0.75 - 0.9. Nonhomogeneous distribution of relative entropy values allows for estimating the relative entropy of the morphological system as a whole. This value is 0.69 and can tentatively be taken as an index of stability of the morphological system.

scholarly journals How to Improve Sharia Accountability for Sovereign Sukuk in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Erny Arianty
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Analytical Hierarchy Process ◽  
The Third ◽  
Contract Structure ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Level Of Importance

<pre><em>The</em><em> study entitled How to Improve Sharia Accountability for Sovereign Sukuk in Indonesia aims to analyze </em><em>the factor that has the highest level of importance</em><em> in realizing sharia accountability.</em> <em>The analysis of this research is conducted by applying</em><em>  </em><em>Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach </em><em>with a hierarchy structure consisting of the first level, namely objectives, sharia accountability for Sovereign Sukuk/Sovereign Sharia Securities (SBSN), then the second level is shariah accountability parameters, consist of structural contract (akad) SBSN, the use of SBSN funds by maqashid sharia, and SBSN accounting and financial reporting. Each criterion is determined by sub-criteria, which are the third level. The last level is the supporting factors for the realization of sharia accountability for SBSN. </em><em>The results showed that human resources competency factor had the highest importance </em><em>level in realizing the sharia accountability for the use of the contract structure (aqad) SBSN parameter, the supervisory function factor had the highest importance level for the parameters of using SBSN funds following the shariahmaqashid, and the decision making authority factor had the highest importance level for the parameters of accounting and financial reporting.  As for the results of the level of importance of the parameters, the parameter of the use of the contract structure has the highest importance level among other parameters. </em></pre>

scholarly journals Role of scenario planning and probabilities in economic decision problems – literature review and new conclusions

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helena Gaspars-Wieloch
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Spare Parts ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Newsvendor Problem ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Numerical Examples

Purpose – scenario planning is very helpful when the decision maker deals with uncertain issues. Probabilities are also frequently applied to such problems. In the paper, we examine the correctness of combining probabilities with scenario planning in economic decisions which are usually made under uncertainty. The goal of the article is to find and discuss cases where the use of probabilities in scenario planning is appropriate and cases where such an approach is not desira-ble. Research methodology – in order to achieve this target, we first make a concise literature review of existing approaches concerning the application of probabilities to scenario planning. Then, we investigate and compare diverse decision mak-ing circumstances presented by means of numerical examples and differing from each other with regard to the nature of the decision problem (way of payoff estimation, novelty degree of the problem, access to historical data etc.) and the de-cision maker’s objectives and preferences (one-shot or multi-shots decisions, attitude towards risk). We explore the newsvendor problem, the spare parts quantity problem, the project selection problem and the project time management with scenario-based decision project graphs. Findings – the work contains both recommendations already described in the literature and suggestions formulated by the author. We get to the point that scenario planning is unquestionable support for decision making under uncertainty, however, the use of probabilities as an accompanying tool may be necessary and justified in some specific cases only. Their significance depends for instance on (1) the number of times a given variant is supposed to be executed; (2) the de-cision maker’s knowledge about the considered problem; (3) the novelty degree of the problem; (4) the decision maker’s conviction that the probability values really reflect his/her attitude towards risk. The analysis of numerical examples leads us to the conclusion that scenario planning should not be linked with the likelihood (1) for one-shot decisions problems; (2) for decision problems related to different kinds of innovation; (3) in the case of lack of certainty which type of proba-bility definition ought to be applied to a given situation; (4) if the decision maker anticipates new future factors not in-cluded in historical data. Research limitations – in the paper we mainly analyse one-criterion problems and payoff matrices with data precisely de-fined. Further conclusions can be obtained after investigating multi-criteria cases and examples with interval payoffs. We limit our research to selected probability definitions. Nevertheless, a wider review can lead to new interesting observa-tions. Practical implications – the aforementioned findings are crucial in such domains as economic modeling and decision the-ory. The results of the research can be used in planning, management, and decision optimization. They provide valuable guidelines for each decision maker dealing with an uncertain future. Originality/Value – authors of previous papers related to this topic have already formulated many significant conclusions. However, this contribution examines the problem from a new point of view since it concentrates on novel decisions, con-cerning unique, innovative or innovation projects (products). It encourages the decision makers to treat problems usually called in the literature “stochastic problems” (i.e. with known probability distribution) as “strategic problems” (i.e. with unknown probability distribution). This is especially the case of the newsvendor problem and the spare parts quantity problem

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