scholarly journals ESTIMATING METHODS OF INVESTMENTS EFFICIENCY TO OWN GENERATION UNDER THE RISK CONDITIONS

2016 ◽  
pp. 78-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. V. Klimovets ◽  
V. A. Zubakin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Investment Projects

The article is devoted to the assessment of the on-site generation effectiveness taking into account the risk associated with the uncertainty of future values of energy prices. It is shown that the economic efficiency is significantly affected by the unevenness of growth in energy prices and the correlation between load profile and graph of wholesale electricity prices.Restrictions on the applying existing approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects, based on calculation of uniquely defined cash flows, are approved. The paper shows the necessity of taking risks into account in order to increase the quality of decisions given the influence of energy resources prices on project’s economic efficiency and the uncertainty of future price values. Based on the analysis of quantitative methods of risk assessment it is proposed to use fuzzy-set approach as one of the most effective methods in the conditions of uncertainty of future values.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects—Assumptions and Context

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 109
Author(s):  
Jana Korytárová ◽  
Vít Hromádka
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Individual Risk Factors

This article deals with the partial outputs of large-scale infrastructure project risk assessment, specifically in the field of road and motorway construction. The Department of Transport spends a large amount of funds on project preparation and implementation, which however, must be allocated effectively, and with knowledge of the risks that may accompany them. Therefore, documentation for decision-making on project financing also includes their analysis. This article monitors the frequency of occurrence of individual risk factors within the qualitative risk analysis, with the support of the national risk register, and identifies dependent variables that represent part of the economic cash flows for determining project economic efficiency. At the same time, it compares these dependent variables identified by sensitivity analysis with critical variables, followed by testing the interaction of the critical variables’ effect on the project efficiency using the Monte Carlo method. A partial section of the research was focused on the analysis of the probability distribution of input variables, especially “the investment costs” and “time savings of infrastructure users” variables. The research findings conclude that it is necessary to pay attention to the setting of statistical characteristics of variables entering the economic efficiency indicator calculations, as the decision of whether or not to accept projects for funding is based on them.

scholarly journals Forecasting Electricity Prices: A Machine Learning Approach

Algorithms ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Mauro Castelli ◽  
Aleš Groznik ◽  
Aleš Popovič
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Dynamic Environment ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Electricity Price Forecasting

The electricity market is a complex, evolutionary, and dynamic environment. Forecasting electricity prices is an important issue for all electricity market participants. In this study, we shed light on how to improve electricity price forecasting accuracy through the use of a machine learning technique—namely, a novel genetic programming approach. Drawing on empirical data from the largest EU energy markets, we propose a forecasting model that considers variables related to weather conditions, oil prices, and CO2 coupons and predicts energy prices 24 h ahead. We show that the proposed model provides more accurate predictions of future electricity prices than existing prediction methods. Our important findings will assist the electricity market participants in forecasting future price movements.

scholarly journals Experience in Evaluating the Project on Research Infrastructure of the Center for Collective Use for the Production of Catalysts

2020 ◽  
pp. 560-570
Author(s):  
Tatyana S. Novikova ◽  
Aleksandr O. Baranov ◽  
Maria V. Korolkova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Research Infrastructure ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Catalyst Production ◽  
Social Environmental

The infrastructural component of Russia’s scientific and technological development requires a significant update of the methodology for evaluating the relevant investment projects. The article covers the issue of simultaneous assessment of financial and economic efficiency of research infrastructure projects and justification of the need for government participation for successful implementation of such projects. The suggested methods and models are based on the transition from financial to economic indicators of the project through the adjustment of cash flows, identification of public effects significant for such projects (social, environmental, indirect, price, tax), and allocation of synergistic effects in their composition. These methods and models were tested for the innovative project of the Center for Collective Use “Experimental Catalyst Production”, which was proposed by the Institute of Catalysis in 2018 within the framework of the Novosibirsk regional programme “Akademgorodok 2.0”. The results show that the stimulation of investment in research infrastructure is justified by a significant excess of the project economic efficiency compared to its financial efficiency and it significantly depends on the choice of an adequate mechanism for government support

scholarly journals Methodological approaches to risk assessment of real investment projects

2018 ◽  
Vol 239 ◽  
pp. 08021
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Bogomolova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Distinctive Features ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Methods ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
Level Of Significance ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Real Investment

Risk management is impossible without systematically assessing the level of significance of the risks identified in the project. Within the scope of the paper, the distinctive features of various qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the risks of real investment projects are emphasized. The paper analyzes some of the existing methods of risk assessment in terms of their advantages and disadvantages of application in order to facilitate the selection of the most convenient method for a particular project.

scholarly journals Improving the assessment of the environmental and economic efficiency of measures

2021 ◽  
Vol 112 ◽  
pp. 00002
Author(s):  
Inna P. Bandurinа ◽  
Mikhail A. Bandurin ◽  
Alexander P. Bandurin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Land Reclamation ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The purpose of the study is to improve methods for improving the regulatory and methodological framework for assessing the environmental and economic effectiveness of land reclamation investment projects. The research methodology is based on the Monte Carlo method, which corresponds to international standards, the theory and algorithms of innovative methods for determining risks, as well as the ability to provide the user with information about the content of risk assessment operations and ensure that their preferences are taken into account in the calculation process. Currently, many tools have been developed for automating risk analysis procedures, including those performed by the Monte Carlo method, which are described in various studies with varying degrees of completeness. The analysis of priority methods of assessing the risks of achieving the projected economic indicators of project solutions is performed and the prospects of the simulation method for practical use in the field of land reclamation are shown. The results of the risk assessment of environmental and economic efficiency of anti-filtration coatings of hydraulic structures of irrigation systems performed by the Monte Carlo method in the environment of the Crystal Ball software product are presented, and the need to improve the reliability of the predicted results of the effectiveness of the designed measures is established. Future research is risk assessment of profitability of the designed activities promote the development of existing and formation of new theories to justify the feasibility of implementation of reclamation investment projects.

scholarly journals Air Conditioning—A Luxury or a Necessity in Green Buildings?

2006 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 69-81
Author(s):  
William E Murphy
Keyword(s):  
Air Conditioning ◽  
Las Vegas ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Green Buildings ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Efficient Manner ◽  
Regional Centers ◽  
Global Carbon

Air conditioning is firmly entrenched in modern U.S. lifestyles, with over 80% of all new houses being centrally heated and cooled. This trend will likely remain in place even as energy prices increase along with pressure to reduce global carbon emissions. Air conditioning has been the major factor behind the explosive growth of the Sunbelt in the south and southwest. Las Vegas, Phoenix, Houston, Miami and many other cities would be only small regional centers if not for the availability of air conditioning for businesses and residences. Air conditioning is becoming more accepted even in areas where it was previously shunned, such as parts of Europe which experienced the severe heat wave in 2002 that was responsible for the deaths of thousands. Given its prominence in our modern society, we must learn to use air conditioning in an intelligent and efficient manner so we can benefit from the quality of life it provides, but without bankrupting our energy resources and permanently altering our global environment.

scholarly journals La evaluación estandarizada y el objetivo privatizador de gran escala: la polémica sobre el SIMCE y una mirada desde la visión de la economía

2016 ◽  
pp. 101
Author(s):  
Osvaldo Jara Gómez
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Testing ◽  
Standardized Tests ◽  
School System ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Educational Quality ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Assurance System ◽  
Education Industry

RESUMENLa Ley del Sistema de Aseguramiento de la Calidad (SAC) ha instalado con carácter legal y obligatorio la toma censal de pruebas estandarizadas a todos los establecimientos del sistema escolar chileno. El presente ensayo discute la forma en que los resultados de las pruebas estandarizadas, además, de informar a las familias sobre calidad de la educación de los colegios, podrían servir para informar sobre los flujos de caja de las instituciones a fin de permitir la evaluación de proyectos de inversión en gran escala en la industria educativa chilena.Palabras clave: privatización de la educación, pruebas estandarizadas, industria educativa, aseguramiento de la calidad.Standardized evaluation and the large-scale privatization purpose: The controversy about the SIMCE test and a perspective from the EconomyABSTRACTQuality Assurance System Law (SAC) has installed as legal and mandatory the census-like standardized tests to all centers of the Chilean school system. This paper discusses how the results of standardized tests also inform families about educational quality of schools and could be used to report cash flows of the institutions so as to allow the assessment of large scale investment projects in Chile’s education industry.Key words: privatization of education, standardized testing, education industry, quality assurance.

scholarly journals JUSTIFICATION FOR CHOOSING THE DISCOUNT RATE IN INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
Светлана Викторовна Кузина ◽  
Павел Константинович Кузин
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Future ◽  
Value Of Cash ◽  
Future Value

Статья посвящена вопросам выбора ставки дисконта для приведения будущей стоимости денежных потоков к настоящей стоимости с помощью коэффициента дисконтирования. Целью исследования является анализ и обоснование выбора численного значения ставки дисконта в зависимости от источников финансирования инвестиционного проекта. Авторами приведены практические рекомендации по выбору метода оценки экономической эффективности привлечения инвестиций как для экономически обособленного инвестиционного проекта, так и для инвестиционного проекта, интегрированного в действующее предприятие. Научная новизна полученных результатов заключается в разработке методического подхода к выбору численного значения ставки дисконта для приведения будущей стоимости денежных потоков к настоящей стоимости с помощью коэффициента дисконтирования и к выбору приоритетного метода оценки экономической эффективности для экономически обособленных и интегрированных в действующее предприятие инвестиционных проектов. The article is devoted to the issues of choosing the discount rate for bringing the future value of cash flows to the present value using the discount coefficient. The purpose of the study is to analyze and justify the choice of the numerical value of the discount rate depending on the sources of financing of the investment project. The authors provide practical recommendations on the choice of a method for assessing the economic efficiency of attracting investment both for an economically isolated investment project and for an investment project integrated into an operating enterprise. The scientific novelty of the obtained results consists in the development of a methodological approach to the choice of the numerical value of the discount rate for bringing the future value of cash flows to the present value using the discount coefficient and the choice of a priority method for assessing economic efficiency for both economically isolated and integrated investment projects in an operating enterprise.

METHODICAL BASES OF ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF INVESTMENT IN ENTERPRISE DEVELOPMENT

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olexandr Yemelyanov ◽  
◽  
Tetyana Petrushka ◽  
Lilia Lesyk ◽  
Anastasiya Symak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Enterprise Development ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Retrospective Assessment ◽  
Tangible Assets ◽  
The Moment

Ensuring economic development of enterprises requires from them the investment of financial resources. Herewith there are many directions of such investment, methods and sources of financing of investment projects, in particular, the purchase of fixed assets and other assets. When adopting investment decisions on the acquisition of assets, the enterprise should compare the expected cash flows from the exploitation of these assets with the amount of investments in their purchase. Under such conditions, it appears a need for a retrospective assessment of the economic efficiency of investments in the acquisition of assets by enterprises in previous periods. The purpose of this article is to develop methodical bases for assessing the economic efficiency of investment in enterprise development. The method of assessing such efficiency for the totality of the available assets at the enterprise is developed, taking into account the terms of their acquisition and the value of net cash flow from their exploitation from the moment of their acquisition until the moment of assessment. It is proposed to evaluate the indicator of the period of achievement of the minimum required efficiency of investments in the development of the enterprise. This period represents the time interval between the moment of investing in the acquisition of assets of the enterprise and the moment when the received cash flow will provide the minimum acceptable level of economic efficiency of invested money. The article shows that the achievement of the minimum acceptable efficiency of investment in the development of the enterprise is a criterion for the success of its investment activity. The factors influencing the period of achievement of minimum acceptable efficiency of investment in the development of the enterprise are determined. Directions for reduction of this period are determined. In particular, they include the optimization of volumes of current assets of the enterprise. A model for determining the value of financial results of the enterprise, which will provide the minimum acceptable efficiency of funds that were invested in tangible assets of the enterprise in previous periods, is proposed. Implementation of the developed methodical principles for assessing the economic efficiency of investing in the development of enterprises in their practice will improve the monitoring of investments realized by enterprises and the process of regulating their investment activity.

scholarly journals Risk assessment related to the choice of contractors performing the job

2018 ◽  
Vol 170 ◽  
pp. 01068 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iuliia Valitova ◽  
Tatiana Trofimova ◽  
Tatiana Simankina ◽  
Elena Stein
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Construction Process ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Technical Base ◽  
Accessible Information ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Cost

Construction and investment projects inherent risks in an extremely wide range of human activity fields. An analysis of risks from the viewpoint of management and mitigation is conducted in this article. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of risk events related to the choice of an unqualified contractors performing the job. The compliance of duration implementation project, the budget amount, and the quality of performed work depend on this choice. The contractors risk assessment methods analysis showed that besides the overall criterion for all methods connected to the cost of work it is vital to take into account the qualifications, reputation, material and technical base of a contractor, the time and quality of the work performed previously. Existing methods with criteria of the choice of contractors performing the job are considered. The universal methodology with a set of criteria that satisfies all construction process participants, and based on publicly accessible information about companies and their experience is essential.

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