Mathematical modeling of pregnancy loss with normal embryo karyotype in the first trimester
Introduction. The risk of pregnancy loss in the first trimester is 12.5–18.7 %. The development of methods for predicting miscarriage is timely and relevant.Aim: to develop a predictive model for assessing the risk of miscarriage in the case of a normal embryo karyotype.Materials and Methods. The single-center cohort retrospective comparative study included 52 women with miscarriage at 6–12 weeks of gestation with a normal embrio karyotype (main group) and 126 women with physiologically progressing pregnancies and favorable perinatal outcomes (control group). All patients underwent general clinical and laboratory examination, analysis of genetic polymorphisms (FGBG -455A, F2 G20210A, F5 G1691A, F7 G10976A, F13 G103A, PAI1 -675 5G/4G, ITGA2 C708T, ITGB3 T176C, MTHFR C677T, MTHFR A1298C, MTR A2756G, MTRR A66G, NOS3 T-786C, NOS3 С894T), examination of the spouse.Results. The factors associated with the loss of pregnancy were a history of infertility, adenomyosis in the patient, a higher platelet count, and an abnormal spermogram of the partner. Significant differences were obtained between the studied groups in the frequency of occurrence of polymorphisms PAI-1 -675 5G/4G, MTHFR C677T, MTRR A66G, NOS3 G894T. On the basis of the revealed patterns, a mathematical model has been developed that makes it possible to determine the high risk of pregnancy loss in the first trimester (86.0 % efficiency).Conclusion. With a comprehensive assessment of clinical and anamnestic indicators, molecular genetic parameters, health indicators of the spouse, it is possible to determine risk groups for pregnancy loss with a normal karyotype of the embryo. Timely forecasting provides the basis for optimizing preconception care and timely prevention of miscarriage.