Revisiting California’s Past Great Earthquakes and Long-Term Earthquake Rate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan E. Hough ◽  
Morgan Page ◽  
Leah Salditch ◽  
Molly M. Gallahue ◽  
Madeleine C. Lucas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
Intensity Distribution ◽  
High Stress ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
B Value ◽  
Moment Magnitude ◽  
Owens Valley ◽  
Strong Constraint ◽  
Magnitude Estimates

ABSTRACT In this study, we revisit the three largest historical earthquakes in California—the 1857 Fort Tejon, 1872 Owens Valley, and 1906 San Francisco earthquakes—to review their published moment magnitudes, and compare their estimated shaking distributions with predictions using modern ground-motion models (GMMs) and ground-motion intensity conversion equations. Currently accepted moment magnitude estimates for the three earthquakes are 7.9, 7.6, and 7.8, respectively. We first consider the extent to which the intensity distributions of all three earthquakes are consistent with a moment magnitude toward the upper end of the estimated range. We then apply a GMM-based method to estimate the magnitudes of large historical earthquakes. The intensity distribution of the 1857 earthquake is too sparse to provide a strong constraint on magnitude. For the 1872 earthquake, consideration of all available constraints suggests that it was a high stress-drop event, with a magnitude on the higher end of the range implied by scaling relationships, that is, higher than moment magnitude 7.6. For the 1906 earthquake, based on our analysis of regional intensities and the detailed intensity distribution in San Francisco, along with other available constraints, we estimate a preferred moment magnitude of 7.9, consistent with the published estimate based on geodetic and instrumental seismic data. These results suggest that, although there can be a tendency for historical earthquake magnitudes to be overestimated, the accepted catalog magnitudes of California’s largest historical earthquakes could be too low. Given the uncertainties of the magnitude estimates, the seismic moment release rate between 1850 and 2019 could have been either higher or lower than the average over millennial time scales. It is further not possible to reject the hypothesis that California seismicity is described by an untruncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution with a b-value of 1.0 for moment magnitudes up to 8.0.

On the mN, M Relation for Eastern North American Earthquakes

1987 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 119-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gail M. Atkinson ◽  
David M. Boore
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Moment ◽  
The Other ◽  
Moment Magnitude ◽  
Scaling Relations ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Meaningful Data

Abstract A stochastic model of ground motion has been used as a basis for comparison of data and theoretically-predicted relations between mN (commonly denoted by mbLg) and moment magnitude for eastern North America (ENA) earthquakes. mN magnitudes are recomputed for several historical ENA earthquakes, to ensure consistency of definition and provide a meaningful data set. We show that by itself the magnitude relation cannot be used as a discriminant between two specific spectral scaling relations, one with constant stress and the other with stress increasing with seismic moment, that have been proposed for ENA earthquakes.

On the characteristics of local geology and their influence on ground motions generated by the Loma Prieta earthquake in the San Francisco Bay region, California

1992 ◽  
Vol 82 (2) ◽  
pp. 603-641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger D. Borcherdt ◽  
Gary Glassmoyer
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
San Francisco Bay ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Loma Prieta Earthquake ◽  
Franciscan Complex ◽  
Horizontal Acceleration ◽  
Geological Conditions ◽  
Peak Horizontal Acceleration ◽  
Loma Prieta

Abstract Strong ground motions recorded at 34 sites in the San Francisco Bay region from the Loma Prieta earthquake show marked variations in characteristics dependent on crustal structure and local geological conditions. Peak horizontal acceleration and velocity inferred for sites underlain by “rock” generally occur on the transverse component of motion. They are consistently greater with lower attenuation rates than the corresponding mean value predicted by empirical curves based on previous strong-motion data. Theoretical amplitude distributions and synthetic seismograms calculated for 10-layer models suggest that “bedrock” motions were elevated due in part to the wide-angle reflection of S energy from the base of a relatively thin (25 km) continental crust in the region. Characteristics of geologic and geotechnical units as currently mapped for the San Francisco Bay region show that average ratios of peak horizontal acceleration, velocity and displacement increase with decreasing mean shear-wave velocity. Ratios of peak acceleration for sites on “soil” (alluvium, fill/Bay mud) are statistically larger than those for sites on “hard rock” (sandstone, shale, Franciscan Complex). Spectral ratios establish the existence of predominant site periods with peak amplifications near 15 for potentially damaging levels of ground motion at some sites underlain by alluvium and fill/bay mud. Average spectral amplifications inferred for vertical and the mean horizontal motion are, respectively, (1,1) for sites on the Franciscan Complex (KJf), (1.4, 1.5) for sites on Mesozoic and Tertiary rocks (TMzs), (2.1, 2.0) for sites on the Santa Clara Formation (QTs), (2.3, 2.9) for sites on alluvium (Qal), and (2.1, 4.0) for sites on fill/Bay mud (Qaf/Qhbm). These mean values are not statistically different at the 5% significance level from those inferred from previous low-strain data. Analyses suggest that soil amplification and reflected crustal shear energy were major contributors to levels of ground motion sufficient to cause damage to vulnerable structures at distances near 100 km in the cities of San Francisco and Oakland.

Seismic intensities, “size” of earthquakes and related parameters

1975 ◽  
Vol 65 (5) ◽  
pp. 1287-1313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack F. Evernden
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
Regional Variation ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Owens Valley ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Return Times ◽  
Comparable Magnitude

Abstract The simple model of an earthquake used in Evernden, et al. (1973) was extended to the conterminous United States and observed patterns of isoseismals for major earthquakes studied in relation to the model. Regional attenuation, a known major factor controlling isoseismal patterns, was quantitatively evaluated. Incorporating this regional variation into the model results in the prediction that in terms of energy released, the San Francisco earthquake of 1906 was 50 times as large as Owens Valley 1872 and more than 100 times larger than the Charleston 1886 and New Madrid 1811 earthquakes. All of these were probably of comparable “magnitude”. Other relevant parameters are investigated. Analysis of probability of occurrence of major earthquakes in the Eastern United States suggests average annual return times of intensity X and IX of thousands of years at least. Presently unknown local conditions may lead to much greater probabilities at some localities, and the importance of developing procedures for determining regions of abnormally high risk is stressed.

10 July 1894 Istanbul Earthquake: Comparing Damages and Ground Motion Simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nesrin Yenihayat ◽  
Eser Çaktı ◽  
Karin Şeşetyan
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Fault Simulation ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Corner Frequency ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Ground Motion Simulations ◽  
Finite Fault ◽  
Intensity Map ◽  
Observed Damage

<p>One of the major earthquakes that resulted in intense damages in Istanbul and its neighborhoods took place on 10 July 1894. The 1894 earthquake resulted in 474 losses of life and 482 injuries. Around 21,000 dwellings were damaged, which is a number that corresponds to 1/7 of the total dwellings of the city at that time. Without any doubt, the exact loss of life was higher. Because of the censorship, the exact loss numbers remained unknown. There is still no consensus about its magnitude, epicentral location, and rupture of length. Even though the hardness of studying with historical records due to their uncertainties and discrepancies, researchers should enlighten the source parameters of the historical earthquakes to minimize the effect of future disasters especially for the cities located close to the most active fault lines as Istanbul. The main target of this study is to enlighten possible source properties of the 1894 earthquake with the help of observed damage distribution and stochastic ground motion simulations. In this paper, stochastic based ground motion scenarios will be performed for the 10 July 1894 Istanbul earthquake, using a finite fault simulation approach with a dynamic corner frequency and the results will be compared with our intensity map obtained from observed damage distributions. To do this, in the first step, obtained damage information from various sources has been presented, evaluated, and interpreted. Secondly, we prepared an intensity map associated with the 1894 earthquake based on macro-seismic information, and damage analysis and classification. For generating ground motions with a stochastic finite fault simulation approach, the EXSIM 2012 software has been used. Using EXSIM, several scenarios are modeled with different source, path, and site parameters. Initial source properties have been obtained from findings of our previous study on the simulation of the 26 September 2019 Silivri (Istanbul) earthquake with Mw 5.8. With the comparison of spatial distributions of the ground motion intensity parameters to the obtained damage and intensity maps, we estimate the optimum location and source parameters of the 1894 Earthquake.</p>

Conditioned Simulation of Ground-Motion Time Series at Uninstrumented Sites Using Gaussian Process Regression

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidin Tamhidi ◽  
Nicolas Kuehn ◽  
S. Farid Ghahari ◽  
Arthur J. Rodgers ◽  
Monica D. Kohler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Gaussian Process ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
Earthquake Engineering ◽  
Seismic Analysis ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Free Field ◽  
Gaussian Process Regression ◽  
Motion Time

ABSTRACT Ground-motion time series are essential input data in seismic analysis and performance assessment of the built environment. Because instruments to record free-field ground motions are generally sparse, methods are needed to estimate motions at locations with no available ground-motion recording instrumentation. In this study, given a set of observed motions, ground-motion time series at target sites are constructed using a Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach, which treats the real and imaginary parts of the Fourier spectrum as random Gaussian variables. Model training, verification, and applicability studies are carried out using the physics-based simulated ground motions of the 1906 Mw 7.9 San Francisco earthquake and Mw 7.0 Hayward fault scenario earthquake in northern California. The method’s performance is further evaluated using the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake ground motions recorded by the Community Seismic Network stations located in southern California. These evaluations indicate that the trained GPR model is able to adequately estimate the ground-motion time series for frequency ranges that are pertinent for most earthquake engineering applications. The trained GPR model exhibits proper performance in predicting the long-period content of the ground motions as well as directivity pulses.

Observations of the Coyote Lake, California earthquake sequence of August 6, 1979

1980 ◽  
Vol 70 (2) ◽  
pp. 559-570 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. Uhrhammer
Keyword(s):  
San Francisco ◽  
Fault Zone ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Main Shock ◽  
B Value ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Characteristics ◽  
Largest Aftershock

abstract At 1705 UTC on August 6, 1979, a strong earthquake (ML = 5.9) occurred along the Calaveras fault zone south of Coyote Lake about 110 km southeast of San Francisco. This strong earthquake had an aftershock sequence of 31 events (2.4 ≦ ML ≦ 4.4) during August 1979. No foreshocks (ML ≧ 1.5) were observed in the 3 months prior to the main shock. The local magnitude (ML = 5.9) and the seismic moment (Mo = 6 × 1024 dyne-cm from the SH pulse) for the main shock were determined from the 100 × torsion and 3-component ultra-long period seismographs located at Berkeley. Local magnitudes are determined for the aftershocks from the maximum trace amplitudes on the Wood-Anderson torsion seismograms recorded at Berkeley (Δ ≊ 110 km). Temporal and spatial characteristics of the aftershock sequence are presented and discussed. Some key observations are: (1) the first six aftershocks (ML ≧ 2.4) proceed along the fault zone progressively to the south of the main shock; (2) all of the aftershocks (ML ≧ 2.4) to the south of the largest aftershock (ML = 4.4) have a different focal mechanism than the aftershocks to the north; (3) no aftershocks (ML ≧ 2.4) were observed significantly to the north of the main shock for the first 5 days of the sequence; and (4) the b-value (0.70 ± 0.17) for the aftershock sequence is not significantly different from the average b-value (0.88 ± 0.08) calculated for the Calaveras fault zone from 16 yr of data.

On Canadian methodologies of probabilistic seismic risk estimation

1979 ◽  
Vol 69 (5) ◽  
pp. 1549-1566
Author(s):  
D. H. Weichert ◽  
W. G. Milne
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Comparison Of The Results

abstract Three probabilistic methods for the estimation of seismic risk have been used in Canada. A reevaluation of the extreme value method shows no advantages over the average value method of Milne and Davenport. Conceptual improvements in the underlying assumptions of the latter method are a constrained release of historical earthquakes from their presumed epicenters and the averaging of earthquake rates over variable periods. Risk estimation can then proceed as suggested by Cornell. Comparison of the results of this modification of the average number method shows similar results as the Milne and Davenport average value method. The stability of risk estimates against new earthquakes is improved, but sensitivities at typical sites toward unavoidable deterministic elements in the model are similar to the older method. For certain site-source-seismicity combinations probabilistic estimates of ground motion could become almost quasi-deterministic.

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