scholarly journals Demographic Agent-based model of Russia and Assessment of its Applicability for Solving Practical Management Problems

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 0
Author(s):  
Albert Bakhtizin
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Data ◽  
Computer Experiments ◽  
Demographic Model ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Practical Management ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Families With Children

The article presents the developed agent-based model of Russia, designed to simulate the processes of population reproduction and the influence of measures to support families with children on these processes. The results of testing this demographic model in the course of computer experiments to predict the main demographic indicators for Russia as a whole and in the context of regions are shown. The properties of the model itself, as well as the plausibility of imitating the main demographic processes in it by comparing the simulation results with real statistical data over a long retrospective period, have been investigated. Prognosis of demographic indicators up to 2030 have been received. The advantages of the agent-based approach to modeling demographic processes are formulated. The promising directions of development of the presented model are indicated.

Endogenous Uncertainty and the Dynamics of Constraints

2019 ◽  
pp. 246-260
Author(s):  
Paul Humphreys
Keyword(s):  
Utility Maximization ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Fitness Landscape ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Endogenous Uncertainty ◽  
The Commons ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Special Case

An agent- based model of social dynamics is introduced using a deformable fitness landscape, and it is shown that in certain clearly specifiable situations, strategies that are different from utility maximization outperform utility maximizers. Simulation results are presented and intuitive interpretations of the results provided. The situations considered occur when individuals' actions affect the outcomes for other agents and endogenous effects are dominant. The Tragedy of the Commons is merely a special case of this. Arguments are given that constraints are to be encouraged in some circumstances. The appropriate role of constraints in various types of society is assessed and their use justified in identifiable types of situations.

scholarly journals Closed-mindedness and insulation in groupthink: their effects and the devil’s advocacy as a preventive measure

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muqtafi Akhmad ◽  
Shuang Chang ◽  
Hiroshi Deguchi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Prevention Measure ◽  
Simulation Results

Abstract This paper’s purpose is to clarify groupthink phenomena and to assess the devil’s advocacy as a groupthink prevention measure. An agent-based model is presented to formalize group closed-mindedness and insulation in a group decision making setting. The model was validated by showing that groupthink results in the decision with low quality and the group’s inability to explore more alternatives. Besides that, the devil’s advocacy also formulated in the model. The simulation results of different conditions of the devil’s advocacy support Janis’ suggestion to utilize the devil’s advocacy to alleviate groupthink. It is also found that the utilization of devil’s advocacy depends on the group’s condition and the desired amount of conflict to produce the best decision.

Cognition and Complexity

2013 ◽  
pp. 254-268
Author(s):  
L. Douglas Kiel ◽  
John McCaskill
Keyword(s):  
Symmetry Breaking ◽  
Knowledge Work ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Stability And Instability ◽  
Scenarios Simulation ◽  
Cognitive Enrichment ◽  
Workplace Factors ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
As Stress

Contemporary knowledge work places create tremendous challenges for employees and managers. High levels of “cognitive capital” are required to cope with the rapidly evolving complexity of work. This chapter presents an agent-based model of the dynamics of cognitive capital in a simulated workplace. Factors such as stress, sleep insufficiency, and excessive work function to reduce the cognitive capital among workers. The cognitive capital in this microworld is tracked among agents suffering from stress, sleep insufficiency and excessive work. The authors also explore how cognitive capital changes under varying cognitive enrichment scenarios. Simulation results reveal a range of behaviors typical of complex systems, showing evidence of periods of both stability and instability. The authors also see symmetry breaking behavior as the dynamics of cognitive capital create drastic change.

scholarly journals Searching far away from the lamp-post: An agent-based model

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 242-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oana Vuculescu
Keyword(s):  
Problem Solving ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Experimental Setup ◽  
Problem Structure ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Organizational Search ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Problem Solvers ◽  
Human Problem

This article presents insights from a laboratory experiment on human problem solving in a combinatorial task. I rely on a hierarchical rugged landscape to explore how human problem-solvers are able to detect and exploit patterns in their search for an optimal solution. Empirical findings suggest that solvers do not engage only in local and random distant search, but as they accumulate information about the problem structure, solvers make ‘model-based’ moves, a type of cognitive search. I then calibrate an agent-based model of search to analyse and interpret the findings from the experimental setup and discuss implications for organizational search. Simulation results show that, for non-trivial problems, performance can be increased by a low level of persistence, that is, an increased likelihood to quickly abandon unsuccessful paths.

scholarly journals An agent-based model of the interrelation between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activities

2021 ◽  
Vol 477 (2245) ◽  
pp. 20200604
Author(s):  
Takeshi Kano ◽  
Kotaro Yasui ◽  
Taishi Mikami ◽  
Munehiro Asally ◽  
Akio Ishiguro
Keyword(s):  
Computational Simulation ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Human Contact ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Voluntary Restraint

As of July 2020, COVID-19 caused by SARS-COV-2 is spreading worldwide, causing severe economic damage. While minimizing human contact is effective in managing outbreaks, it causes severe economic losses. Strategies to solve this dilemma by considering the interrelation between the spread of the virus and economic activities are urgently needed to mitigate the health and economic damage. Here, we propose an abstract agent-based model of the COVID-19 outbreak that accounts for economic activities. The computational simulation of the model recapitulates the trade-off between the health and economic damage associated with voluntary restraint measures. Based on the simulation results, we discuss how the macroscopic dynamics of infection and economics emerge from individuals’ behaviours. We believe our model can serve as a platform for discussing solutions to the above-mentioned dilemma.

scholarly journals Why a Globally Fair COVID-19 Vaccination? An Analysis based on Agent-Based Simulation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Zia
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Model ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Time Required ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spatial Transmission

In this paper, an Agent-Based Model (ABM) is proposed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination drive in different settings. The main focus is to evaluate the counter-effectiveness of disparity in vaccination drive among different regions/countries. The model proposed is simple yet novel in the sense that it captures the spatial transmission-induced activity into consideration, through which we are able to relate the transmission model to the mutated variations of the virus. Some important what-if questions are asked in terms of the number of deaths, and time required and the percentage of the population needed to be vaccinated before the pandemic is eradicated. The simulation results have revealed that it is necessary to maintain a global (rather than regional or country-oriented) vaccination drive in case of a new pandemic or continual efforts against COVID-19.

MODERN SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AFFECTING THE BUSINESS SECTOR OF THE ECONOMIES OF LATVIA AND UKRAINE

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 353-365
Author(s):  
Iveta Mietule ◽  
Iryna Maksymova ◽  
Kateryna Holikova
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Demographic Processes

The paper analyses and describes key social and demographic trends affecting the business in current conditions. The present research aims to establish logical coherence and feedback between economic development and basic socio-demographic indicators in European countries, including the experience of Latvia and Ukraine. The challenge of the research leads to answering the question how demographic processes affect and drive the economy and how this mechanism could be used to predict essential trends of future development. The methodology of cluster analysis, statistical and regression methods were employed for modelling. Cluster analysis was applied to depict an economic cartogram and merge some European countries in particular clusters by current socio-demographic and economic criteria. As a result, this approach allowed us to compare Latvia and Ukraine as highlighting representatives of different economic clusters and distinguish important similarities and differences. Statistical data were based on the following indicators: GDP, income, employment, age structure, gender, population aging, location, migration etc. These parameters were analysed due to their dynamic change. Regression methods allowed to establish the whole system of indicators affecting the business environment in Latvia and Ukraine. For instance, the results confirmed the explicit impact of migration trends on business and social development.

POPULATION GROWTH AS AN INDISPENSABLE CONDITION FOR LABOUR MARKET FORMATION

2020 ◽  
pp. 57-60
Author(s):  
T.V. Grigorova ◽  
◽  
N.V. Laykova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Market Formation ◽  
First Child ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Families With Children ◽  
Low Birth Rate

This article examines the problem of relationship between demography and economy and presents statistical data that characterize the demographic processes in Russia since 1997. The population is considered as the labor, the number and structure of which largely determines the economic development of the country. Authors explore the reasons for the low birth rate of the population and the outflow of people from sparsely populated areas and show the dynamics of international migration. It is shown that financial support is needed not only for families with children, but also for those young people who are planning the birth of their first child. It is specified that only state investments, correct and consistent policy can change the current demographic situation.

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