scholarly journals Research on Expected Return Based on Time Series Model: Taking Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. as an Example

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Wennuan Fang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Error Rate ◽  
Linear Regression Model ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Evaluation Index ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Enterprise Value ◽  
Value Evaluation

<p>With the stable development of China's economy, the economic activities among enterprises are more diversified, and the enterprise value evaluation index system is more perfect. As an important parameter in the enterprise value evaluation index, the expected income can be used to measure the profit quality of the enterprise. In order to explore the expected return of enterprises, this paper selects free cash flow as the specific index, and takes Kweichow moutai Co., Ltd. as an example, analyzes the earnings trend of enterprises through the method of time series. Time series prediction models are constructed to provide the basis for enterprise value evaluation. At the same time, by fitting single linear regression model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, the free cash flow is predicted, and finally the ARIMA (1,2,2) model is obtained. The results show that the single linear regression model has a higher error rate, while ARIMA (1,2,2) has a better fitting degree and a lower error rate. It can be used for the results of expected earnings of enterprises and provides a reference for enterprise value evaluation.</p>

PENGARUH PERUBAHAN KOMPONEN LAPORAN ARUS KAS, PERUBAHAN LABA KOTOR, DAN PERUBAHAN SIZE PERUSAHAAN TERHADAP EXPECTED RETURN SAHAM

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Serly C ◽  
Astuti Yuli Setyani
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Gross Margin ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Flow Changes ◽  
Operating Cash Flow ◽  
Observation Period

The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of changes in thecomponents of cash flows (operating cash flow changes, investment cashflow changes , cash flow funding changes), changes in gross profit,and change the size of the company toward expected return stock ofmanufacturing companies which go public in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The number of companies studied as many as 84 companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange with the observation period from 2004 to 2008. The technique used in the data analysis is the technique of multiple linear regression. Results of the study showed that only cash flow operations changes ,investment cash flow changes and gross margin changes that showed significantly influence against expected return stockKata kunci: expected return, size, arus kas operasi, arus kas investasi, laba kotor

scholarly journals A time series analysis of bulk tank somatic cell counts of dairy herds located in Brazil and the United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Liz Gonçalves Rodrigues ◽  
Maria Helena Cosendey de Aquino ◽  
Márcio Roberto Silva ◽  
Letícia Caldas Mendonça ◽  
Juliana França Monteiro de Mendonça ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Linear Regression Model ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
Dairy Herds ◽  
Somatic Cell Counts ◽  
Cell Counts ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Bulk Tank

ABSTRACT: Bulk tank somatic cell counts (BTSCC) is widely used to monitore the mammary gland health at the herd and regional level. The BTSCC time series from specific regions or countries can be used to compare the mammary gland health and estimate the trend of subclinical mastitis at the regional level. Three time series of BTSCC from dairy herds located in the USA and the Southeastern Brazil were evaluated from 1995 to 2014. Descriptive statistics and a linear regression model were used to evaluate the data of the BTSCC time series. The mean of annual geometric mean of BTSCC (AGM) and the percentage of dairy herds with a BTSCC greater than 400,000 cells mL-1 (%>400) were significantly different (P<0.05) according to the countries and the times series. Linear regression model used for the USA time series was statistically significant for AGM and the %>400 (P<0.05). The first and second USA time series presented an increasing and decreasing trend for AGM and the %>400, respectively. The linear regression model for the Brazil time series was not significant (P>0.05) for both dependent variables (AGM and %>400). The Brazil time series showed no increasing or decreasing trend for the AGM and %>400. Consequently, approximately 40 to 50% of the dairy herds from southeastern Brazil will not achieve the regulatory limits for BTSCC over the next years.

scholarly journals ANALISIS MODEL MANAJEMEN PERMINTAAN SCM NETWORK DAN PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN PADA PENJUALAN BUSANA MUSLIM MENGGUNAKAN METODE LINEAR REGRESSION

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-32
Author(s):  
Vela Maghfiroh ◽  
◽  
Yusuf Amrozi ◽  
Qushoyyi Bondan Prakoso ◽  
Mochamad Adam Aliansyah
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Error Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Lifestyle Changes ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Analysis Techniques

Supply chain management is very important for a company because it will affect supply performance in the company. Doing business in this era has many challenges that must be faced, especially in the Muslim clothing business. The way to stabilize the demand diagram of the Muslim clothing business, retailers are required to manage the supply chain so that they can meet the total demand. The object of this research is Rabbani Cirebon which was obtained from a literature study published in a journal entitled "Trend of Muslim Lifestyle Changes" from Banjarmasin State Polytechnic. The journal has sales data based on product types from monthly in 2016. From this data will be processed and analyzed using data analysis techniques. This data analysis technique uses time series forecasting data analysis techniques. From this time series method, this research uses moving average and linear regression. After modeling the data, the forecast error is measured using MAD, MAPE, RMSE, and MSE. The overall MSE results were 103731.8 and RMSE 322.0743. The benefit of demand forecasting is to reduce the Bullwhip Effect, plan future resources, for example, such as stock management, place control, product distribution, and demand for raw materials so as to make the right decisions. The results showed that the linear regression method has better forecasting than the moving average because linear regression has a smaller error rate than the moving average. But even so, the error rate of this study is still very large, so it is necessary to do more research to minimize the error rate.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH LIKUIDITAS, STRUKTUR AKTIVA, FREE CASH FLOW, DAN UKURAN PERUSAHAAN TERHADAP KEBIJAKAN UTANG (DER) PADA PT JASA MARGA Tbk PERIODE 2009-2018

KEUNIS ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Anita Kristina ◽  
Prihatiningsih Prihatiningsih ◽  
Ida Savitri Kusmargiani
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Company Size ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Debt Policy

<em>This research is based on the problems of the company PT Jasa Marga Tbk which has a problem with the performance of the company which is indicated by the DER of companie increased during the period 2009-2018. The purpose of this research is to analyze the influance of direction and significance of Liquidity, Asset Structure, Free Cash Flow and Company Size on Debt Policy (DER) in PT Jasa Marga Tbk for the period 2009-2018. The population and sample in this study were PT Jasa Marga Tbk. The analysis model used in this study is a multiple linear regression model. The results of the multiple linear regression analysis showed that (1) the influance of Liquidity (CR) on Debt Policy (DER) was positive and significant (2) the influance Asset Structure on Debt Policy (DER) was negative and not significant (3) the influance of Free Cash Flow on Debt Policy (DER) is positive and significant (4) the influance of Company Size on Debt Policy (DER) is positive and significant.</em>

Pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan pengangguran terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Sumatera Selatan

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Novegya Ratih Primandari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Linear Regression Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square

This research aims to analyze effect of economic growth, inflation and Unemployment on the Rate of Poverty in the Province of South Sumatera. This research used secondary data in the form of time series data from 2001-2017. The method used quantitative approach by applying a linear regression model with OLS estimation Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The results of this study indicate that partially and simultaneously Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment have a significant effect on the Poverty Rate in the Province of South Sumatera.

Solving Capelin Time Series Ecosystem Problem Using Hybrid ANN-GAs Model and Multiple Linear Regression Model

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karam M. Eghnam ◽  
Alaa F. Sheta ◽  
Hichem Arioui ◽  
Rochdi Merzouki ◽  
Hadj Ahmed Abbassi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Linear Regression Model ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model

A hybrid modelling method for time series forecasting based on a linear regression model and deep learning

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (8) ◽  
pp. 3002-3015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenquan Xu ◽  
Hui Peng ◽  
Xiaoyong Zeng ◽  
Feng Zhou ◽  
Xiaoying Tian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Linear Regression Model ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Hybrid Modelling ◽  
Modelling Method

scholarly journals The Intrinsic Value of an Enterprise Determined by Means of the FCFE Tool

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 8868
Author(s):  
Veronika Jezkova ◽  
Zuzana Rowland ◽  
Veronika Machova ◽  
Jan Hejda
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Enterprise Value ◽  
Future Value ◽  
Mutual Relations ◽  
Key Indicators

This paper deals with the determination of the intrinsic value of the company Seznam.cz, a.s. using discounted cash flow. Specifically, it is concerned with determining the value of the business from the perspective of the company’s shareholders. The Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) method is chosen for analysis and determination of the value. According to this method, the specific FCFE values are discovered. However, the enterprise value must also be analyzed on the basis of other key indicators, such as financial leverage, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) method, or the net present and future value of the FCFE. This is especially important so that the results can be put into mutual relations and a sufficient representative value of the FCFE results can be achieved. Input values stem from the company’s annual reports. From the results of the mentioned methods and indicators, it was found that the value of the FCFE is quite high, which means that the capital used is used appropriately. Based on the result of the continuing value of the FCFE, it can be said that the company’s intrinsic value is at a very good level.

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