scholarly journals Analysis of Long-term Determinants of the Profitability for Amalgamated Bank of South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 01-11
Author(s):  
Albert Antwi
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Comprehensive Planning ◽  
Equity Financing ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Literature Evidence ◽  
Interest Margins ◽  
Long Term Impact

Averting the risk of falling short on the expected profitability of a bank requires the knowledge of the underlying determinants. Knowledge of long-run underlying determinants of profitability assists banks in comprehensive planning. In this backdrop, the paper seeks to identify the long-term fundamental risk factors and their impacts on their profitability. The FM-OLS regression method is employed using annual data on the components of profitability as well as internal and external determinants of profitability of Amalgamated Bank of South Africa (ABSA) bank from 1998 to 2014. The study is particularly importance since bank-specific studies aimed at identifying long-run fundamental factors of profitability has not been given much attention in literature. Evidence from the study indicates that profitability of ABSA is cointegrated with its determinants. It is further observed that, with the exception of inflation and GDP, all the determinants have significant long-term impact on profitability. However, although size has significant impact on net interest margins, its impact on return on equity is insignificant. The results further suggest that capital and stock market capitalization pose risk to aggregate profitability of ABSA. It is therefore recommended that in future, ABSA should resort to optimal equity financing to maximize its expected profitability.

scholarly journals Sector Volatility Spillover and Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China’s Stock Market

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1411
Author(s):  
Xiaqing Su ◽  
Zhe Liu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Transmission Structure ◽  
Long Term Impact

Following generalized variance decomposition, we identify the transmission structure of financial shock among ten sectors in China. Then, we examine whether economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects it through GARCH-MIDAS regression. We find that consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials sectors are systemically important industries during the sample period. Further research of dynamic analysis shows that each sector acts in a time-varying role in this structure. The results of the GARCH-MIDAS regression indicate that none of the selected EPU indexes has a significant long-term impact on the total volatility spillover of the inter-sector stock market in China. However, the EPUs do affect some sectors’ spillover indexes in the long run, and they are significantly heterogeneous. This paper can provide regulatory suggestions for policymakers and reasonable asset allocation and risk avoidance methods for investors.

scholarly journals Is Customer Satisfaction Driving Revenue A Longitudinal Analysis With Evidence From The Banking Industry

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Winkler ◽  
Markus S. Schwaiger
Keyword(s):  
Customer Satisfaction ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Retail Banking ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Longitudinal Dataset

The connection between customer satisfaction and the financial performance of companies has been under academic scrutiny for quite some time. Evidence regarding the long term impact of customer satisfaction is however relatively scarce. Furthermore, research has so far often neglected potential industry idiosyncrasies in estimating the consequences of changes in customer satisfaction. We provide an insight into the overall long run impact of customer satisfaction on operating revenues based on a longitudinal dataset for the Austrian retail banking industry. Our results corroborate the intuition of a positive long run effect of satisfaction on revenues. We can show, that a time lag of 1,5 years has to elapse for satisfaction to have a positive impact on sales.

scholarly journals CAN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT REDUCE UNEMPLOYMENT IN HOME COUNTRIES? ANALYSIS FOR ASEAN COUNTRY

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 143
Author(s):  
ELSA WIDIA ◽  
ENDRIZAL RIDWAN ◽  
FAJRI MUHARJA
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Direct Foreign Investment ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asean Country

Direct Foreign Investment (FDI) has been considered as one of the important strategies in long-term economic development. FDI is seen not only as a capital transfer but also has an important effect on increasing the host economy. FDI then became popular in many countries, so it was interesting to analyze the effects produced, both positive and negative. This research focuses on countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with the aim of conducting empirical studies on opportunities for employment creation by FDI. However, due to limited data in several countries, this study only involved Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. The type of data used in this study is annual data covering from 1980-2017. Using estimation Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) allows to see short-term and long-term effects. The test results prove that the influence between variables is more visible in the long run

scholarly journals Estimating Short- and Long-Term Associations Between Air Quality Index and COVID-19 Transmission: Evidence From 257 Chinese Cities

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ru Cao ◽  
Yuxin Wang ◽  
Xiaochuan Pan ◽  
Xiaobin Jin ◽  
Jing Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Quality Index ◽  
Air Quality Index ◽  
Pollution Level ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Migration Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Term Impact

Objectives: To evaluate the long- and short-term effects of air pollution on COVID-19 transmission simultaneously, especially in high air pollution level countries.Methods: Quasi-Poisson regression was applied to estimate the association between exposure to air pollution and daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19, with mutual adjustment for long- and short-term air quality index (AQI). The independent effects were also estimated and compared. We further assessed the modification effect of within-city migration (WM) index to the associations.Results: We found a significant 1.61% (95%CI: 0.51%, 2.72%) and 0.35% (95%CI: 0.24%, 0.46%) increase in daily confirmed cases per 1 unit increase in long- and short-term AQI. Higher estimates were observed for long-term impact. The stratifying result showed that the association was significant when the within-city migration index was low. A 1.25% (95%CI: 0.0.04%, 2.47%) and 0.41% (95%CI: 0.30%, 0.52%) increase for long- and short-term effect respectively in low within-city migration index was observed.Conclusions: There existed positive associations between long- and short-term AQI and COVID-19 transmission, and within-city migration index modified the association. Our findings will be of strategic significance for long-run COVID-19 control.

scholarly journals THE NEXUS AMONG EMPLOYMENT, PRODUCTIVITY AND TRADE OPENNESS: EVIDENCE FROM BRICS AND INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-484
Author(s):  
Badri Narayan Rath ◽  
Masagus M. Ridhwan
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Policy Perspective ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Employment Generation

This paper investigates the nexus among employment, labor productivity and trade openness in Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS), and Indonesia using annual data (1991–2018). The results suggest a long-run relationship among the variables but only in the agricultural sector of these economies. We also find a unidirectional causality running from employment to productivity in only the agricultural sector. Similarly, trade openness also Granger causes employment. Our final result indicates that trade openness positively influences labor productivity in the long-run. From a policy perspective, it is imperative for BRICS and Indonesia to target employment generation by promoting trade openness.

scholarly journals SIX YEARS (1999-2015) OF ESCALATING HOUSE PRICE: CAN FDI BE BLAMED?

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ema Izati Zull ◽  
Tajul Ariffin Masron
Keyword(s):  
House Price ◽  
Well Being ◽  
High Price ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
Liberalization Policy ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

In Malaysia, house price has increased drastically. Problem arises in areas that received relatively lower number of FDI. The house price in these areas accelerated at growth which are somewhat equivalent to areas which benefit from FDI spillover. As the relationship between FDI and locals’ well-being is becoming crucial due to the escalating high price, this paper intends to examine the long-term impact of FDI on house price in Malaysia. Our long-run estimation results showed that FDI inflows have affected house price in Malaysia negatively between the period of 1999 and 2015. The effect however reversed when liberalization policy is included. With the presence of liberalization policy, FDI inflows have actually caused house price in KL and Penang (highly dynamic states) to increase in the long-run. The positive effect of FDI inflows on house price are also found in relatively slow-progressive states like Pahang and Kedah confirming the nationwide effect of liberalization policy regardless of economy level of a state. Other than FDI inflows, this study also examined house supply, gross domestic per capita and interest rate as independent variables.

scholarly journals Assessing the long-term impact of agricultural research on productivity: evidence from France

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 1559-1586
Author(s):  
Stéphane Lemarié ◽  
Valérie Orozco ◽  
Jean-Pierre Butault ◽  
Antonio Musolesi ◽  
Michel Simioni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Dynamic Time ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
Public Agricultural Research ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Range Of Values

Abstract This paper analyses the economic impact of agricultural research on productivity in France over the period 1959–2012. Adopting a dynamic time series model, we provide evidence that the impact of French agricultural research is in the range of values estimated for other countries, with the estimated long-run elasticity being 0.16, which corresponds to an internal rate of return of 22%. The estimated elasticity decreases at the beginning of the 1970s. Complementary analyses are developed to take into account the evolution of the priorities of public agricultural research (reorientation towards more fundamental objectives and focus on broader objective than productivity enhancement).

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Link between Economic Growth and Exports in Côte d’Ivoire

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Daouda Coulibaly ◽  
Fulgence Zran Goueu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between exports and economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire. In order to achieve this objective, annual data for the period 1960-2017 were tested by using the cointegration approach of Pesaran, Shin and Smith, including the causality test of Breitung and Schreiber. According to our analysis it is only exports that drive economic growth and not the opposite. Exports act positively and significantly on economic growth in the short term as well as in the long term. The causality test of Breitung and schreiber indicates a one-way long-run causal relationship ranging from exports to gross domestic product (GDP). All those results show that exports are a source of Ivorian economic growth.

scholarly journals Long-Run Relationship Between Economic Development and International Tourism in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 329-344
Author(s):  
Muhammad Asif Khan ◽  
Ghulam Mujtaba Chaudhary ◽  
Khalid Latif ◽  
Naveed Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

This article examines the link between economic development and international tourism in the context of Pakistan. The study uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag tests (ARDL) for the long-term relationship; the short-term relationship is examined with Error Correction model, and the VECM-Granger causality to determine the direction of the causal flow. The study uses annual data from the CEIC and World Bank databases for the period 1990-2017. The novelty stems from the perspective that there is no formal evidence on long-run dynamics between economic development indicators and international tourism from Pakistan. It contributes to the existing literature on this vital phenomenon. The empirical results document the long-term and short-term association between the variables. We also find a two-way causal flow between economic development and tourism. In addition, it offers policy implications for focusing on three economic dimensions, e.g. economic development, financial development, and stock market development, which subsequently attracts international tourism. Intuitively, promulgates National culture and image across borders and strengthens the National Treasury as well.

scholarly journals Marginal Employment Growth Effects In The South African Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-156
Author(s):  
Irrshad Kaseeram ◽  
Darma Mahadea
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Employment Growth ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Dynamic Interactions ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Marginal Employment

South Africa relative to its peers (upper middle income countries) suffers from high unemployment and sub-optimal economic growth. This study investigates the ‘marginal effects of employment’ with respect to real output and capital in South Africa, using annual data covering the period 1946-2015.  It estimates the responsiveness of employment to real output growth and capital, employing the short and long-run dynamic interactions between these variables via the application of the VAR/VECM Johansen (1991) framework.  The results show that there exists a statistically significant long-run co-integrating relationship between labour employment and real GDP growth. Marginal employment growth effect is positive; a one per cent increase in GDP tends to increase employment by about one third of one per cent. Employment adjusts consistent with expectations when it overshoots its structural relationship with other variables. However, real output tends to adjust contrary to expectations, implying significant diminishing returns to employment in the economy. Growth in capital impacts positively on output and employment. The study concluded that greater labour market flexibility and higher worker productivity is needed across all sectors of the economy.

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