CHANGE OF MAXIMUM RAIN PATTERN BASED ON RAINFALL DATA OF BANJARBARU CLIMATOLOGY STATION CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE

According to the World Meteorological Organization that 2014 was the hottest year in which the hot weather alternated with high rainfall and floods which destroyed the people's economy. Banjarbaru, as one of the central cities of the government of South Kalimantan Province, has a topographic condition that is at an altitude of 0-500 m above sea level, causing rainfall, which is enough frequent. Banjarbaru itself is one of the cities affected by climate change in 2014. Disasters that occurred in the form of flooding at several points of residents and also crippled traffic at that time. Thus, it is important to know the pattern of maximum rainfall changes that occur. By knowing the pattern of maximum rainfall changes, the impact of the high rainfall that can occur will be minimized and can even be anticipated as early as possible. Data processing is performed with maximum daily rainfall data of 30 years and divided into a database before and after climate change that is 25 years old data and 5 years of new data. Each database calculates the planned rainfall for the return period of 2-1000 years with the distribution obtained from the analyzed database. Next, analyze the deviation of the two data. The purpose of analyzing the deviation of old data and new data is to determine changes in the planned rainfall from both data. Deviation analysis uses the Peak-Weight Root Mean Square Error function. The conclusion of the analysis is that based on the Statistical Parameters test, the Chi-Square test, and the Smirnov-Kolmogorov test on the old database using the Gumbel distribution and the new data using the Pearson Log Type III distribution for the calculation of the planned rain. Based on the analysis of the rain plan to get new data 5 years has the results of the rain plan is greater than the old data of 25 years and the analysis of the deviation to get the results of the new data 5 years has a greater value of deviation each time when revisiting the old data of 25 years. So it can be suggested that rainfall data with the same characteristics, can use 5 years of new data for the analysis of water building planning.

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Analysis of variability and projection of extreme rainfall in West Java

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1315/893/1/012012 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 893 (1) ◽

pp. 012012

Author(s):

R C H Hutauruk ◽

T Amin ◽

A M Irawan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Daily Rainfall ◽

Extreme Rainfall ◽

Rainfall Data ◽

West Java ◽

Maximum Rainfall ◽

Rainfall Index ◽

Extreme Rain ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Rainy Days

Abstract This research discusses the effect of climate change on extreme rainfall in West Java using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios by comparing daily rainfall data with model ACCESS-1, CSIROMK3.6 model, MIROC-5 from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projection (NEX-GDDP) and the ensemble of three models each season with Extreme Dependency Score (EDS) method. This study projects an extreme rainfall index of 30 years (2011-2040). The three extreme rainfall indices issued by the Expert Detection Team and the Climate Change Index (ETCCDI) consisted of Rx1day, R50mm, and R95p used in this study. The results showed that the projection period (2011-2040) used RCP 8.5 which had a trend of increasing extreme rain index that was greater than RCP 4.5. For RCP 8.5 the maximum rainfall will increase in Indramayu, Majalengka, Purwakarta, Sukabumi and Ciamis areas. Increased rainy days occurred in Bogor, Bekasi, Karawang, Purwakarta, Bandung, Sumedang, Majalengka, Cirebon, Indramayu. Extreme rainfall will increase in Bekasi, Karawang and Bogor regions.

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The Impact of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Income and Food Security: Empirical Evidence from Small-Scale Fishers in Indonesia

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13147905 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (14) ◽

pp. 7905

Author(s):

Moh. Shadiqur Rahman ◽

Hery Toiba ◽

Wen-Chi Huang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Security ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Substantial Effect ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Small Scale ◽

Probit Regression ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact ◽

Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

The impacts of climate change on marine capture fisheries have been observed in several studies. It is likely to have a substantial effect on fishers’ income and food security. This study aims to estimate the impact of adaptation strategies on fishers’ income and their household’s food security. Data were collected from small-scale fishers’ households, which own a fishing boat smaller or equal to five gross tonnages (GT). The study sites were the two coastal regions of Malang and Probolinggo in East Java, Indonesia, due to the meager socioeconomic resources caused by climate change. A probit regression model was used to determine the factors influencing the fishers’ adaptation. Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to evaluate the impact of the adaptation strategies on income and food security. Food security was measured by food consumption score (FCS). The findings indicated that participation in the fishers’ group affected adaptation strategies significantly, and so did the access to credit and climate information. Also, PSM showed that the adaptation strategies had a positive and significant impact on fishers’ income and food security. Those who applied the adaptation strategies had a higher income and FCS than those who did not. This finding implies that the fishery sector’s adaptation strategies can have significant expansion outcome and reduce exposure to risks posed by climate change. Therefore, the arrangement of more climate change adaptation strategies should be promoted by the government for small-scale fishers in Indonesia.

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Interlinkages between Urbanization and Climate Change: Identifying and Understanding the Challenges and the Prospects

Journal of Regional and City Planning ◽

10.5614/jpwk.2020.31.3.4 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 31 (3) ◽

pp. 285-300

Author(s):

Abhinav Alakshendra ◽

Arjun Kumar ◽

Simi Mehta

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Urban Governance ◽

Institutional Reforms ◽

Rapid Urbanization ◽

Role Of Government ◽

Government Organizations ◽

Urban Service ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact

India is urbanizing at an alarming rate and the impact of climate change is becoming more visible each passing day. The rapid urbanization and climate change have severe direct and indirect consequences, such as increasing poverty, inequality, massive displacement, public health concerns, and challenges of urban governance, among others. This paper identifies some of the most pressing issues faced by urban India in the context of climate change. It also details the interventions undertaken at the local, national, and international levels to counter the effect of the climate change. In addition, it critically evaluates the role of government organizations, especially in terms of undertaking regulatory and planning functions. The paper argues that the implementation of institutional reforms would enable the government to reach out to the private sector to improve urban service delivery. It also provides examples of best practices from India and the world in combating climate change through adaptation and mitigation approaches.Abstrak. India mengalami urbanisasi pada tingkat yang mengkhawatirkan dan dampak perubahan iklim menjadi terlihat setiap hari. Urbanisasi yang cepat dan perubahan iklim memiliki konsekuensi langsung dan tidak langsung yang parah, seperti antara lain meningkatnya kemiskinan, ketimpangan, pengungsian besar-besaran, masalah kesehatan masyarakat, dan tantangan tata kelola kota. Makalah ini mengidentifikasi beberapa masalah paling mendesak yang dihadapi oleh perkotaan India dalam konteks perubahan iklim. Makalah ini juga merinci intervensi yang dilakukan di tingkat lokal, nasional, dan internasional untuk melawan dampak perubahan iklim. Selain itu, secara kritis makalah ini mengevaluasi peran organisasi pemerintah, terutama dalam menjalankan fungsi pengaturan dan perencanaan. Makalah ini berpendapat bahwa pelaksanaan reformasi kelembagaan akan memungkinkan pemerintah menjangkau sektor swasta untuk membantu meningkatkan pelayanan perkotaan. Makalah ini juga memberikan contoh praktik terbaik dari India dan dunia dalam memerangi perubahan iklim melalui pendekatan adaptasi dan mitigasi.Kata kunci. Urbanisasi, perubahan iklim, keterkaitan, tata kelola kota, mitigasi.

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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON MOUNTAIN BIODIVERSITY: A SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GILGIT-BALTISTAN OF PAKISTAN

Journal of Mountain Area Research ◽

10.53874/jmar.v1i0.12 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 1 ◽

pp. 53

Author(s):

S. Ishaq ◽

M. Z. Khan ◽

F. Begum ◽

K. Hussain ◽

R. Amir ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Natural Resources ◽

Special Reference ◽

Current Knowledge ◽

Knowledge Gap ◽

Change Models ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Government ◽

Gilgit Baltistan ◽

The Impact

Climate Change is not a stationary phenomenon; it moves from time to time, it represents a major threat to mountainous biodiversity and to ecosystem integrity. The present study is an attempt to identify the current knowledge gap and the effects of climate change on mountainous biodiversity, a special reference to the Gilgit-Baltistan is briefly reviewed. Measuring the impact of climate change on mountain biodiversity is quite challenging, because climate change interacts with every phenomenon of ecosystem. The scale of this change is so large and very adverse so strongly connected to ecosystem services, and all communities who use natural resources. This study aims to provide the evidences on the basis of previous literature, in particular context to mountain biodiversity of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). Mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan have most fragile ecosystem and are more vulnerable to climate change. These mountains host variety of wild fauna and flora, with many endangered species of the world. There are still many gaps in our knowledge of literature we studied because very little research has been conducted in Gilgit-Baltistan about climate change particular to biodiversity. Recommendations are made for increased research efforts in future this including jointly monitoring programs, climate change models and ecological research. Understanding the impact of climate change particular to biodiversity of GB is very important for sustainable management of these natural resources. The Government organizations, NGOs and the research agencies must fill the knowledge gap, so that it will help them for policy making, which will be based on scientific findings and research based.

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Impact of Climate Change on River Flows in the Black Volta River

Journal of Disaster Research ◽

10.20965/jdr.2014.p0432 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 432-442 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Nobuhiko Sawai ◽

◽

Kenichiro Kobayashi ◽

Apip ◽

Kaoru Takara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Future Climate ◽

Precipitation Pattern ◽

Present Climate ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Maximum Rainfall ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

This paper assesses the impact of climate change in the Black Volta River by using data output from the atmospheric general circulation model with a 20-km resolution (AGCM20) through the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The Black Volta, which flows mainly in Burkina Faso and Ghana in West Africa, is a major tributary of the Volta River. The basin covers 142,056 km2 and has a semi-arid tropical climate. Before applying AGCM20 output to a rainfall–runoff model, the performance of the AGCM20 rainfall data is investigated by comparing it with the observed rainfall in the Black Volta Basin. To assess the possible impact of rainfall change on river flow, a kinematic wave model, which takes into consideration saturated and unsaturated subsurface soil zones, was performed. The rainfall analysis shows that, the correlation coefficient of the monthly rainfall between the observed rainfall and AGCM20 for the present climate (1979–2004) is 0.977. In addition, the analysis shows that AGCM20 overestimates precipitation during the rainy season and underestimates the dry season for the present climate. The analysis of the AGCM20 output shows the precipitation pattern change in the future (2075–2099). In the future, precipitation is expected to increase by 3%, whereas evaporation and transpiration are expected to increase by 5% and by 8%, respectively. Also, daily maximum rainfall is expected to be 20 mm, or 60%, higher. Thus, the future climate in this region is expected to be more severe. The rainfall–runoff simulation is successfully calibrated at the Bamboi discharge gauging station in the Black Volta fromJune 2000 to December 2000 with 0.72 of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency index. The model is applied with AGCM20 outputs for the present climate (1979–2004) and future climate (2075–2099). The results indicate that future discharge will decrease from January to July at the rate of the maximum of 50% and increase fromAugust to December at the rate of the maximumof 20% in the future. Therefore, comprehensive planning for both floods and droughts are urgently needed in this region.

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Climate Change Effects on Hydropower Potential in the Alcantara River Basin in Sicily (Italy)

Earth Interactions ◽

10.1175/2012ei000508.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 17 (19) ◽

pp. 1-22 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

G. T. Aronica ◽

B. Bonaccorso

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Daily Rainfall ◽

Hydrological Regime ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Hydropower Generation ◽

Energy Potential ◽

Hydropower Potential ◽

The Impact

Abstract In recent years, increasing attention has been paid to hydropower generation, since it is a renewable, efficient, and reliable source of energy, as well as an effective tool to reduce the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activities. At the same time, however, hydropower is among the most vulnerable industries to global warming, because water resources are closely linked to climate changes. Indeed, the effects of climate change on water availability are expected to affect hydropower generation with special reference to southern countries, which are supposed to face dryer conditions in the next decades. The aim of this paper is to qualitatively assess the impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime of the Alcantara River basin, eastern Sicily (Italy), based on Monte Carlo simulations. Synthetic series of daily rainfall and temperature are generated, based on observed data, through a first-order Markov chain and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, respectively, for the current scenario and two future scenarios at 2025. In particular, relative changes in the monthly mean and standard deviation values of daily rainfall and temperature at 2025, predicted by the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) for A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, are adopted to generate future values of precipitation and temperature. Synthetic series for the two climatic scenarios are then introduced as input into the Identification of Unit Hydrographs and Component Flows from Rainfall, Evapotranspiration and Streamflow Data (IHACRES) model to simulate the hydrological response of the basin. The effects of climate change are investigated by analyzing potential modification of the resulting flow duration curves and utilization curves, which allow a site's energy potential for the design of run-of-river hydropower plants to be estimated.

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The effect of climate change on rainfall pattern and deficit of water in tea plantation

Jurnal Penelitian Teh dan Kina ◽

10.22302/pptk.jur.jptk.v19i2.104 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 19 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Salwa Lubnan Dalimoenthe ◽

Y Apriana ◽

T June

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Deficit ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Soil Surface ◽

Rainfall Data ◽

Rainfall Pattern ◽

Tea Plantation ◽

Water Index ◽

The Impact

Climate change has been influencing rainfall pattern so that it would be necessary to see the impact of that changed on tea plantation. The experimental area coverage lowland (600 m asl), midland (800-1000m asl) and highland (>1.000 m asl) tea plantation and each altituted represented by three tea estate in West Java. The rainfall data collected since 2005 up to 2014 from each estate and water deficit has been count through the method develop by Wijaya (1996). The results showed that the rainfall pattern has been changed by La-Nina and El-Nino during 2005-2014 in tea estate either in lowland, midland or highland in the last decade. The climate change caused rainfall decreasing and increasing on dry month (the rainfall < 100 mm). Eventhough on 2009 there is an significantly increasing of the rainfall but after 2009 until 2014, the rainfall tend to decrease. After El-Nino on late 2009 and early 2010, lowland tea estate on Subang Regency facing water deficit until 5 months with R (defisit water index) far below 1 even there is no El Nino. The tea plantation at midland area (Cianjur Regency) facing 5 months water deficit per year, but the R index close to 1. While in highland tea plantation (Bandung Regency), the water deficit only happend on certain month on certain year although there is a month with zero rainfall. Water deficit could be happend because of runoff on soil surface stimulate by low ability of soil to keep the water.

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Bayesian Modelling of Extreme Rainfall Data of Some Selected Locations in Nigeria

Journal of Scientific Research and Reports ◽

10.9734/jsrr/2020/v26i130209 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 16-26

Author(s):

Olawale Basheer Akanbi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Bayesian Methods ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Extreme Rainfall ◽

Rainfall Data ◽

Bayesian Modelling ◽

Data Set ◽

Maximum Rainfall ◽

Block Maxima ◽

Informative Approach

Climate change occurs when there is rise in average surface temperature on earth, which is mostly due to the burning of fossil fuels usually by human activities. It has been known to contribute greatly to the occurrence of extreme storms and rainfall, this trend continues as the effect of climate change becomes more pronounced. Therefore, this study modelled the extreme rainfall data of three locations (Calabar, Ikeja, Edo) in Nigeria. The block maxima method was used to pick out the maximum rainfall data in each year to form annual maxima data set. The parameters [location, scale, shape] were estimated using both the Classical and Bayesian methods. The result shows that the Bayesian Informative approach is a very good procedure in modelling the Nigerian Extreme Rainfall data.

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SWAT BASED ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT IN THENPENNAI SUB-BASIN OF SOUTH INDIA

ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences ◽

10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-5-557-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol XLII-5 ◽

pp. 557-562

Author(s):

K. Nivedita Priyadarshini ◽

S. A. Rahaman ◽

S. Nithesh Nirmal ◽

R. Jegankumar ◽

P. Masilamani

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Scale Model ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact ◽

Soil And Water

Abstract. Climate change impacts on watershed ecosystems and hydrologic processes are complex. The key significant parameters responsible for balancing the watershed ecosystems are temperature and rainfall. Though these parameters are uncertain, they play a prime role in the projections of dimensional climate change studies. The impact of climate change is more dependent on temperature and precipitation which contributes at a larger magnitude for characterising global warming issues. This paper aims to forecast the variations of temperature and precipitation during the period of 2020&ndash;2050 for the northern part of Thenpennar sub basin. This study is modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) &ndash; a scale model developed to predict the impact of changes that occurs in land, soil and water over a period of time. This study is validated using the base period from 1980&ndash;2000 which shows the distribution of rainfall and temperature among 38 watersheds. The results from this study show that there is a decrease in the rainfall for a maximum of about 20% in the month of December during the predicted period of 2020 and 2050. This study assesses the possible adverse impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation of Thenpennai sub-basin. This kind of predictions will help the government agencies, rulers and decision makers in policy making and implementing the adaptation strategies for the changing climatic conditions.

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Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Pattern in Upper Kumaon Himalaya Region

10.21203/rs.3.rs-631968/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

A. Singh ◽

R. B. Singh ◽

S. Anand ◽

A. Mohanty ◽

S. S. Dash

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Altitude ◽

Human Life ◽

Rainfall Variability ◽

Parametric Method ◽

Daily Rainfall ◽

Research Area ◽

Rainfall Data ◽

Rainfall Pattern ◽

Kumaon Himalaya

Abstract Every single aspect of environment is affected by climate change. Change in rainfall pattern is an immense important research area in climate-change based study. Rainfall pattern has direct impacts on food production and frequencies natural disasters (landslide, cloudburst, flood, drought etc.). Consequently, that appropriate and systemic consideration since it distresses the most of the human life. Situation in Himalayan region is worst. High altitude, less agricultural area, harsh climate with high fragility makes mountain region more vulnerable in term of climate change. The objective of this study is to identify yearly, seasonal, and monthly rainfall trends in the Upper Kumaon region (UKR). Long-term gridded daily rainfall data (1950–2018) were used. Rainfall data was processed and analyzed for a period of 68 years (1950–2018) at four places (four in each Kumaon division) in the surrounding area of Almora, Bageshwar, Pithoragarh, and Champawat. The regression analysis (parametric) method and variability analysis were used to examine historical trends in daily rainfall. The rising and falling trends in rainfall, as well as anomalies, have been studied using regression.The result shows that rainfall demonstrate statistically significant changes occurred in last 34 years. Rainfall variability is higher in low altitude region than high altitude region of Upper Kumaon region.

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