scholarly journals CHOOSING A QUALITY CRITERION FOR EVALUATING THE FORECAST OF NONLINEAR NON-STATIONARY PROCESSES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrii O. Belas ◽  
Petro I. Bidyuk
Keyword(s):  
Quality Criterion ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Nonstationary Processes ◽  
Regression Problem ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
The Given ◽  
Relative Metric ◽  
Selection Of

Background. The problem of forecasting nonlinear nonstationary processes presented in the form of time series is very relevant, since such series can describe dynamics of the processes in both technical and economic systems. To establish the best model, various metrics are used to assess the quality of forecasts, such as R^2, RMSE, MAE, MAPE. However, in many tasks, when optimizing the model according to the selected criterion, the model becomes worse in relation to another criterion. Therefore it is important to understand which metric must be used to optimize and assess the quality of the forecast in the given task. Objective. The aim of the paper is to develop a criteria base for assessing forecasts of nonlinear nonstationary processes, as well as an approach to choosing a metric in accordance to the specificity of the set forecasting problem. Methods. The paper presents a comparative analysis of the basic metrics for the regression problem, their theoretical and practical meaning, advantages and disadvantages in various cases. New approaches are proposed based on the results of the analysis. Results. Based on the analysis of the selected data, it is shown that by optimizing the model according to the selected criterion, the model becomes worse in relation to another criterion. A criterion basis for assessing forecasts of nonlinear nonstationary processes has been formed, as well as an approach to the selection of a quality criterion in accordance with the specifics of the set forecasting problem. To minimize an absolute error, the RMSE (MSE, R^2) and MAE metrics are analysed and recommended, depending on the need to work with outliers. The RMSLE metric is proposed for solving the problems of minimizing the relative metric, for solving the shown problems of the MAPE metric for this class of problems.  Conclusions. The paper shows the importance of choosing a metric that must be used to optimize and assess the quality of the forecasts in the given task. The obtained criterion base and approach can be used in further research to solve practical prob- lems in modelling and forecasting nonlinear nonstationary processes and to develop new methods or general method for solving such problems.

Assessing the Quality of Management of Transformation Processes in Economic Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 952-956
Author(s):  
M. V. Malyshkina ◽  
M. V. Miroslavskaya
Keyword(s):  
Systems Approach ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Organizational Transformation ◽  
Quality Criterion ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Transformation Processes

Aim. The presented study aims to develop the methodology for assessing the quality of management of organizational transformation processes. Tasks. To achieve the set aim, the authors solve the following problems: determine the essence and content of socio-economic transformation, formulate quality assurance principles for the management of transformation processes, draw attention to the problem of selecting a unified quality criterion for the management of organizational transformation processes. Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition, including analysis and synthesis. It also applies a systems approach to identify the major problems of assessing the quality of management of transformation processes, including the problem of selecting a unified quality criterion for the management of transformation processes and formulating the principles of ensuring the quality of management of transformation processes. Results. The global problem of managing transformation processes in the economic system consists in the complexity of the managed processes, which increases due to the multidimensionality, mutual influence, and the resulting uncertainty of interactions between the elements of the system. It is concluded that the methodology for assessing the quality of management of transformation processes is based on the principle of integrating separate measures to improve the quality of management of system elements into a single system of management actions and the principle of ensuring that management actions are primarily aimed at preventing possible negative consequences of the transformation of economic systems, i.e. reducing the potential impact of unfavorable events and their consequences. To assess the effectiveness of targeted management actions and productive actions aimed at organizing, controlling, and guiding the transformation process, the authors actualize the problem of selecting an adequate quality criterion for the management of transformation processes in economic systems and put forward a hypothesis about a possible unified criterion of management quality. Conclusions. The principle of integrating separate measures to improve the quality of management of system elements and the principle of ensuring that management actions are aimed at preventing possible negative consequences lie at the core of the methodology for assessing the quality of management of transformation processes in economic systems. The quality assessment methodology should be developed in the direction of finding a unified quality criterion for managing transformation processes in economic systems.

scholarly journals THE GRAVITY MODEL FORMALIZATION FOR THE INTERCITY PASSENGER’S CORRESPONDENCES PARAMETER’S ESTIMATION

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 437-443 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. V. Dolya
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Transportation System ◽  
Gravity Models ◽  
Gravity Modeling ◽  
Passenger Transport ◽  
Passenger Transportation ◽  
The Given ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Calibration Coefficients

he paper considers a possibility to apply gravity models for calculation of intercity passenger transport corres- pondences which are implemented with the help of public transport. The Ukraine transportation system has been selected as an object of investigation and this approach extends application possibilities of the obtained results. Calibration coefficients used in calculation of the indicated correspondences are rather important and significant in case of forecasting passenger transport correspondences. Formalization of these factors is necessary for every transportation system if a calculation of pas-senger transport correspondences has been made for it. In this case searching for actual calibration parameters and other coef-ficients as components of gravitational models is a relevant objective of the given paper. Selection of the gravity model va- riant plays rather significant role in solution of this problem. The developed methods for calculation of passenger transport correspondences are proposed for their application in respect of various transport and trip types. The executed research works have made it possible to investigate a process pertaining to providing of services for passenger transportation while using public routes. The obtained characteristics on functioning of the studied system have allowed to assess the possibility for ap-plication of the known methods for calculation of passenger correspondences and analyze the quality of their application. Calibration coefficients have been empirically selected for calculation of the indicated correspondences while using method of gravity modeling. Formalization of previously unexplored parameters of gravity model component provides the possibility to apply the considered approach for calculation of passenger correspondences within the framework of the investigated trans-portion system. This makes it possible to plan and arrange interaction of various transport types and provides new data and knowledge on the studied system.

Automation Tool Preparation in the Conditions of Production

2015 ◽  
Vol 770 ◽  
pp. 739-743 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.S. Yuanyushkin ◽  
D.V. Lobanov ◽  
D.A. Rychkov
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Rational Design ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Optimal Choice ◽  
Processing Efficiency ◽  
Time Required ◽  
The Given ◽  
High Processing ◽  
Selection Of

The key task of the tool manufacturing is to create or to choose such a type of tool, which would permit to provide high processing efficiency, the best tool`s workability and the quality of the machined surfaces with minimum expenses and resources. The optimal choice of the constructive tool modifications from a variety of options takes much time required for the preparation of the tool to work. To solve this problem, we have developed software that allows you to create, organize and carry out a comparative analysis of structural instruments in order to identify rational option for the given conditions of production. Ordering and selection of a rational design of the instrument is carried out in accordance with established procedures of modeling and comparative analysis of design solutions. Application software can reduce design time technological process by 80...90%, and get a substantial annual economic effect.

scholarly journals APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL TOOLS FOR ESTIMATION OF CLONAL LINES AT IMPROVEMENT OF VIRUS-FREE POTATO VARIATES

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 125-139
Author(s):  
I.V. Demchuk
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Estimation ◽  
Potato Cultivars ◽  
Initial Material ◽  
Statistical Tools ◽  
Potato Varieties ◽  
Clonal Lines ◽  
The Given ◽  
Productive Virus ◽  
Selection Of

Productivity of use of technique for statistical estimation of virusfree clonal lines at improvement of potato varieties was overviewed. It was shown, that application of the given technique can considerably improve the quality of initial material at sanitation of potato cultivars by biotechnological methods at the expense of selection of highly productive virus-free lines without deviations from the initial phenotype.

ADAPTIVE TESTING AS A TOOL FOR MANAGING QUALITY OF EDUCATION

2018 ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
M. V. Tomashev ◽  
A. S. Avdeev ◽  
M. V. Krasnova
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Testing ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Testing System ◽  
Test Results ◽  
State Technical ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Testing Algorithm ◽  
Comparison Of The Results ◽  
The Given

The article presents the results of the use of adaptive testing in higher education institutions with the example of the LMS Stimul implemented in Polzunov Altai State Technical University. The advantages and disadvantages of testing as an assessment method are considered. On the base of analysis of modern educational trends, the conclusion is made about the relevance of the issue of adaptive testing, taking into account the personal mastering of the material by the student. A description of a testing system that making a permanent adaptation of the test to customize the test for the knowledge of a particular student is given. The variant of the adaptive testing algorithm is given. A comparison of the results obtained using the conventional test and the adaptive test is described. Analysis of the test results is carried out in the context of topics, categories and types of questions. Based on the given examples, a conclusion is made on the effectiveness of adaptive testing.

Can you fall in love with old age?

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 161-176
Author(s):  
Izabela Zapalska
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Good Practice ◽  
Institutional Support ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
A Value ◽  
Selection Of

This text addresses the perception of old age in the 21st century. The aim of the article is to draw attention to the issue of the diverse perception of aging and old age. The addressees of the article are employees of social services, NGO activists, the elderly and their caregivers, people who contribute to the environment in which the elderly live, as well as students of medical, social sciences and pedagogical fields of studies. The selection of literature for this study was not accidental, as the authors of selected works are the elite of world gerontology, andragogy, pedagogy, psychology, sociology, whose main area of scientific interest are issues related to old age and the aging process. These include: Aleksander Kamiński, Zofia Szarota, Artur Fabiś, Barbara Szatur-Jawoska, Paul Baltes and others. The article attempts to show old age as a period of heyday and living it in a dignified rather than chronological way. In addition, the advantages and disadvantages and of this period of human life are presented, as wells as recognised examples of good practice, institutional support and non-institutional support.. The text highlights some of the determinants that are characteristic for ageing and old age, such as: successful ageing, graceful ageing and quality of life. Such an approach to the problem helps to reflect more deeply on the issue raised, while helping to exclude metastereotypes and contribute to treating old age as a value. It will also make us reflect on the passage of time and on the last period of life, which does not have to fill us with fear, being scared of the unknown, a sense of helplessness, and for which we should learn and prepare throughout our life. The article also highlights two very important facts that old age cannot be confined, and its limits cannot be defined, as well as the heterogeneity of this social group, which does not allow for the development of a single model of old age, which would become a model used by the sciences dealing with this field of study. Finally, an attempt was made to answer the key question – Can you fall in love with old age?

Procedure for Admittance of the Contractor Companies to Perform the Work at the Construction Site

2021 ◽  
pp. 24-28
Author(s):  
E.V. Glebova ◽  
◽  
E.A. Fomin ◽  
M.V. Ivanova ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Injury Rate ◽  
Construction Site ◽  
Matrix Elements ◽  
Current Period ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Industrial Injuries ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Given ◽  
Selection Of

The article is devoted to the assessment of the contractor companies activity in the field of safety both before the start of work execution and during the execution of work at the construction site of the Client’s company. Analysis is given concerning the industrial injuries from 2009 to 2018 in Russia, based on which the tendency to reduce industrial injuries for the current period is determined, and the coefficients of the frequency of injuries in various countries for 2015 are calculated. Based on the performed analysis, the injury rate in Russia is still at a high level. Economic component for the materials, personnel qualifications, and savings on safety from the Client’s company can also lead to injuries at the construction site. The main reasons for low quality of the work performed at the construction site, which in turn lead to injuries, are given in the article. Matrix for the assessment of the contractor companies was developed, with the help of which it is proposed to assess all the aspects of their activities that effect on safety of the work performed. Among the assessed aspects there are sections related to training, behavior and motivation of the personnel, audits conducted by the contractor companies in relation to the subcontractors, investigation of incidents by using the current procedures and contractor personnel responsibilities. One of the matrix elements is presented for assessment. Each element from the given section is proposed to be assessed on a scale from 0 to 3, where each aspect is presented in the form of an action, an assessment of this action and its result. Recommendations on the use of this methodology in the selection of contractors are provided.

scholarly journals Systematic Analysis of Indicators for Socio-Economic Security

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 338-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. N. Shvaiba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Security ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Security Level ◽  
Fundamental Groups ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Social Standard ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Quality Of Living ◽  
The Given

Conducting a systematic analysis of indicators for socio-economic security it is necessary to point out that fundamental groups of characteristics pertaining to socio-economic security include the following indicators: social standard and quality of living, degree of socio-economic system security, level of national financial independence, situation with management system and provision of socio-economic security. All the mentioned and some other indicators have something in common while ensuring socio-economic security and, for this reason, it is important to keep their balance and coherence. Evaluation of socio-economic security for a macro-system can be implemented among other tasks while using matrix method. According to this method it is possible to evaluate a possibility of threat appearance due to changes in a specific indicator, level of impact on national security, duration and time rate of changes in unwanted manifestations. The matrix makes it possible to classify those dangers when there is a possibility of an unsafe situation occurrence to such extent that it is required to undertake urgent measures to improve the situation and take special actions. The proposed method demonstrates visible results and it is considered as a statistical method of analysis. The given method presents rather good results while making smooth changes in evolutionary characteristics of the system. Monitoring horizon of these models is 1–2 years. In this context it is necessary to take into account that the proposed method is hardly suitable in the case when there are prompt changes in characteristics from one group of indicators to the other one. This is due to the fact that statistics of past periods has been applied and it characterized the given system which was under completely different circumstances at that moment. If this is the case then there is a discrepancy in creation of methods at all levels of socio-economic systems and these methods adequately take into account dynamics of changes in the system.

scholarly journals General methods of forecasting nonlinear nonstationary processes based on mathematical models using statistical data

2021 ◽  
pp. 79-86
Author(s):  
Oleg Belas ◽  
Andrii Belas
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Recurrent Neural Networks ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Nonstationary Processes ◽  
General Technique ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages

The article considers the problem of forecasting nonlinear nonstationary processes, presented in the form of time series, which can describe the dynamics of processes in both technical and economic systems. The general technique of analysis of such data and construction of corresponding mathematical models based on autoregressive models and recurrent neural networks is described in detail. The technique is applied on practical examples while performing the comparative analysis of models of forecasting of quantity of channels of service of cellular subscribers for a given station and revealing advantages and disadvantages of each method. The need to improve the existing methodology and develop a new approach is formulated.

Concept of Quality Management of Economic Systems As a Mechanism for Re-industrialization

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 9-21
Author(s):  
Мижерова ◽  
K. Mizherova ◽  
Свирчевский ◽  
Vadim Svirchevskiy ◽  
Юсим ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Management ◽  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Quality Criterion ◽  
Statistical Dependence ◽  
Group Method ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Technological Environment ◽  
Industrial Sectors

The article explains the methodology of re-industrialization of the economy, which is based on two components: the group method of providing dynamic optimization of the development of a quantitative quality criterion of the economic system and the group of methods that solve the problem of overcoming resistance to the development of backward technological environment. Methods of the first group based on the use of previously unknown: macroconstants development of the economies and their industrial sectors; the statistical dependence of the quality of economic growth the quality industry; models direct quality management of clusters of firms; a universal indicator of the quality of human-machine systems and goal-setting policy of increasing the quality of the economy as a whole, based on this indicator. Group of methods of overcoming resistance to the development of backward technological environment based on proposed by Russian researchers technology reform of large socio-economic systems, including solutions that provoke positive changes in the backward institutional environment. The proposed methodology can provide enhance coordinated government development processes, the pace of which approach the theoretical maximum in the current institutional and technological environment and the existing resource constraints.

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