Hydrologic Response in an Urban Watershed as Affected by Climate and Land Use Change

The change in both streamflow and baseflow in urban catchments has received significant attention in the latest decades as a result of their drastic variability. In this research, effects of climate variation and dynamics of land use are measured separately and in combination on streamflow and baseflow in the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed (Indianapolis, Indiana). These effects are examined using land use maps, statistical tests, and hydrological modeling. Transition matrix analysis was used to investigate the change in land use between 1992 and 2011. Temporal trends and changes in meteorological data were evaluated from 1980-2017 using the Mann-Kendall test. Changes in streamflow and baseflow were assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model using multiple scenarios that varied in land use and climate change. Evaluation of the model outputs showed streamflow and baseflow in LEC are well represented using SWAT; however, comparing the calibration and validation period showed SWAT performs better for the calibration. During 1992-2011, roughly 30% of the watershed experienced change, typically cultivated agricultural areas became urbanized. Baseflow is significantly affected by the observed urbanization; however, the combination of land and climate variability has a larger effect on the baseflow in LEC. Generally, the variability in the baseflow and streamflow appears to be heavily driven by the response to climate change in comparison to variability due to altered land use. The results reported herein expand the current understanding of variation in hydrological components, and provides useful information for management planning regarding water resources, as well as water and soil conservation in urban watersheds in Indiana and beyond.

Download Full-text

Hydrologic Response in an Urban Watershed as Affected by Climate and Land-Use Change

Water ◽

10.3390/w11081603 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (8) ◽

pp. 1603 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Mohamed Aboelnour ◽

Margaret W. Gitau ◽

Bernard A. Engel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Statistical Tests ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Kendall Test ◽

Matrix Analysis ◽

Urban Catchments

The change in both streamflow and baseflow in urban catchments has received significant attention in recent decades as a result of their drastic variability. In this research, effects of climate variation and dynamics of land use are measured separately and in combination with streamflow and baseflow in the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed (Indianapolis, Indiana). These effects are examined using land-use maps, statistical tests, and hydrological modeling. Transition matrix analysis was used to investigate the change in land use between 1992 and 2011. Temporal trends and changes in meteorological data were evaluated from 1980–2017 using the Mann–Kendall test. Changes in streamflow and baseflow were assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model using multiple scenarios that varied in land use and climate change. Evaluation of the model outputs showed streamflow and baseflow in LEC are well represented using SWAT. During 1992–2011, roughly 30% of the watershed experienced change, typically cultivated agricultural areas became urbanized. Baseflow is significantly affected by the observed urbanization; however, the combination of land and climate variability has a larger effect on the baseflow in LEC. Generally, the variability in the baseflow and streamflow appears to be heavily driven by the response to climate change in comparison to variability due to altered land use. The results reported herein expand the current understanding of variation in hydrological components, and provide useful information for management planning regarding water resources, as well as water and soil conservation in urban watersheds in Indiana and beyond.

Download Full-text

A Comparison of Streamflow and Baseflow Responses to Land-Use Change and the Variation in Climate Parameters Using SWAT

Water ◽

10.3390/w12010191 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 191 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Mohamed Aboelnour ◽

Margaret W. Gitau ◽

Bernard A. Engel

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Water Conservation ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Kendall Test ◽

Matrix Analysis ◽

Creek Watershed ◽

Soil And Water

Alteration of land use and climate change are among the main variables affecting watershed hydrology. Characterizing the impacts of climate variation and land use alteration on water resources is essential in managing watersheds. Thus, in this research, streamflow and baseflow responses to climate and land use variation were modeled in two watersheds, the Upper West Branch DuPage River (UWBDR) watershed in Illinois and Walzem Creek watershed in Texas. The variations in streamflow and baseflow were evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The alteration in land use between 1992 and 2011 was evaluated using transition matrix analysis. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was adopted to investigate changes in meteorological data for 1980–2017. Our results indicate that the baseflow accounted for almost 55.3% and 33.3% of the annual streamflow in the UWBDR and Walzem Creek watersheds, respectively. The contribution of both land use alteration and climate variability on the flow variation is higher in the UWBDR watershed. In Walzem Creek, the alteration in streamflow and baseflow appears to be driven by the effect of urbanization more than that of climate variability. The results reported herein are compared with results reported in recent work by the authors in order to provide necessary information for water resources management planning, as well as soil and water conservation, and to broaden the current understanding of hydrological components variation in different climate regions.

Download Full-text

A Comparison of Streamflow and Baseflow Responses to Land-Use and Climate Change Using SWAT

10.20944/preprints201911.0281.v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Mohamed Aboelnour ◽

Margaret W. Gitau ◽

Bernard Engel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Water Conservation ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Matrix Analysis ◽

Creek Watershed ◽

Soil And Water

Alteration of land use and climate change are among the main variables affecting watershed hydrology. Characterizing the impacts of climate variation and land use alteration on water resources is essential in managing watersheds. Thus, in this research, streamflow and baseflow responses to climate and land use variation were modeled in two watersheds, the Upper West Branch DuPage River (UWBDR) watershed in Illinois and Walzem Creek watershed in Texas. The variations in streamflow and baseflow were evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The alteration in land use between 1992 and 2011 was evaluated using transition matrix analysis. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was adopted to investigate changes in meteorological data from 1980-2017. Our results indicated that the baseflow accounted for almost 55.3% and 33.3% of the annual streamflow in the UWBDR and Walzem Creek watersheds, respectively. The contribution of both land use alteration and climate variability on the flow variation is higher in the UWBDR watershed. In Walzem Creek, the alteration in streamflow and baseflow appears to be driven by the effect of urbanization more than that of climate variability. The results reported herein are compared with results reported in recent work by the authors in order to provide necessary information for water resources management planning, as well as soil and water conservation, and to broaden the current understanding of hydrological components variation in different climate regions.

Download Full-text

A Review of SWAT Model Application in Africa

Water ◽

10.3390/w13091313 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 1313

Author(s):

George Akoko ◽

Tu Hoang Le ◽

Takashi Gomi ◽

Tasuku Kato

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Data Availability ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Model Parameterization ◽

Basin Scale

The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is a well-known hydrological modeling tool that has been applied in various hydrologic and environmental simulations. A total of 206 studies over a 15-year period (2005–2019) were identified from various peer-reviewed scientific journals listed on the SWAT website database, which is supported by the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD). These studies were categorized into five areas, namely applications considering: water resources and streamflow, erosion and sedimentation, land-use management and agricultural-related contexts, climate-change contexts, and model parameterization and dataset inputs. Water resources studies were applied to understand hydrological processes and responses in various river basins. Land-use and agriculture-related context studies mainly analyzed impacts and mitigation measures on the environment and provided insights into better environmental management. Erosion and sedimentation studies using the SWAT model were done to quantify sediment yield and evaluate soil conservation measures. Climate-change context studies mainly demonstrated streamflow sensitivity to weather changes. The model parameterization studies highlighted parameter selection in streamflow analysis, model improvements, and basin scale calibrations. Dataset inputs mainly compared simulations with rain-gauge and global rainfall data sources. The challenges and advantages of the SWAT model’s applications, which range from data availability and prediction uncertainties to the model’s capability in various applications, are highlighted. Discussions on considerations for future simulations such as data sharing, and potential for better future analysis are also highlighted. Increased efforts in local data availability and a multidimensional approach in future simulations are recommended.

Download Full-text

The effect of input data resolution and complexity on the uncertainty of hydrological predictions in a humid vegetated watershed

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-22-5947-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 22 (11) ◽

pp. 5947-5965 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Linh Hoang ◽

Rajith Mukundan ◽

Karen E. B. Moore ◽

Emmet M. Owens ◽

Tammo S. Steenhuis

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Parameter Uncertainty ◽

Input Data ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Model Performance ◽

Data Complexity ◽

Delaware River ◽

Output Uncertainty ◽

Data Resolution

Abstract. Uncertainty in hydrological modeling is of significant concern due to its effects on prediction and subsequent application in watershed management. Similar to other distributed hydrological models, model uncertainty is an issue in applying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Previous research has shown how SWAT predictions are affected by uncertainty in parameter estimation and input data resolution. Nevertheless, little information is available on how parameter uncertainty and output uncertainty are affected by input data of varying complexity. In this study, SWAT-Hillslope (SWAT-HS), a modified version of SWAT capable of predicting saturation-excess runoff, was applied to assess the effects of input data with varying degrees of complexity on parameter uncertainty and output uncertainty. Four digital elevation model (DEM) resolutions (1, 3, 10 and 30 m) were tested for their ability to predict streamflow and saturated areas. In a second analysis, three soil maps and three land use maps were used to build nine SWAT-HS setups from simple to complex (fewer to more soil types/land use classes), which were then compared to study the effect of input data complexity on model prediction/output uncertainty. The case study was the Town Brook watershed in the upper reaches of the West Branch Delaware River in the Catskill region, New York, USA. Results show that DEM resolution did not impact parameter uncertainty or affect the simulation of streamflow at the watershed outlet but significantly affected the spatial pattern of saturated areas, with 10m being the most appropriate grid size to use for our application. The comparison of nine model setups revealed that input data complexity did not affect parameter uncertainty. Model setups using intermediate soil/land use specifications were slightly better than the ones using simple information, while the most complex setup did not show any improvement from the intermediate ones. We conclude that improving input resolution and complexity may not necessarily improve model performance or reduce parameter and output uncertainty, but using multiple temporal and spatial observations can aid in finding the appropriate parameter sets and in reducing prediction/output uncertainty.

Download Full-text

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the freshwater availability of Kaduna River basin, Nigeria

Journal of Water and Land Development ◽

10.2478/jwld-2018-0047 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 38 (1) ◽

pp. 105-114 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Gloria C. Okafor ◽

Kingsley N. Ogbu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Availability ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Kendall Test ◽

Well Being ◽

Trend Test ◽

Climate Indices ◽

The Impact

AbstractChanges in runoff trends have caused severe water shortages and ecological problems in agriculture and human well-being in Nigeria. Understanding the long-term (inter-annual to decadal) variations of water availability in river basins is paramount for water resources management and climate change adaptation. Climate change in Northern Nigeria could lead to change of the hydrological cycle and water availability. Moreover, the linkage between climatic changes and streamflow fluctuations is poorly documented in this area. Therefore, this study examined temporal trends in rainfall, temperature and runoff records of Kaduna River basin. Using appropriate statistical tools and participatory survey, trends in streamflow and their linkages with the climate indices were explored to determine their amplifying impacts on water availability and impacts on livelihoods downstream the basin. Analysis indicate variable rainfall trend with significant wet and dry periods. Unlike rainfall, temperature showed annual and seasonal scale statistically increasing trend. Runoff exhibit increasing tendency but only statistically significant on annual scale as investigated with Mann–Kendall trend test. Sen’s estimator values stood in agreement with Mann–Kendall test for all variables. Kendall tau and partial correlation results revealed the influence of climatic variables on runoff. Based on the survey, some of the hydrological implications and current water stress conditions of these fluctuations for the downstream inhabitants were itemized. With increasing risk of climate change and demand for water, we therefore recommend developing adaptive measures in seasonal regime of water availability and future work on modelling of the diverse hydrological characteristics of the entire basin.

Download Full-text

Predicting hydrologic responses to climate changes in highly glacierized and mountainous region Upper Indus Basin

Royal Society Open Science ◽

10.1098/rsos.191957 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (8) ◽

pp. 191957 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Muhammad Izhar Shah ◽

Asif Khan ◽

Tahir Ali Akbar ◽

Quazi K. Hassan ◽

Asim Jahangir Khan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Climate Model ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Model Simulation ◽

Global Climate ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Swat Model ◽

Indus Basin ◽

Upper Indus Basin

The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is a major source of supplying water to different areas because of snow and glaciers melt and is also enduring the regional impacts of global climate change. The expected changes in temperature, precipitation and snowmelt could be reasons for further escalation of the problem. Therefore, estimation of hydrological processes is critical for UIB. The objectives of this paper were to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources and future projection for surface water under different climatic scenarios using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The methodology includes: (i) development of SWAT model using land cover, soil and meteorological data; (ii) calibration of the model using daily flow data from 1978 to 1993; (iii) model validation for the time 1994–2003; (iv) bias correction of regional climate model (RCM), and (v) utilization of bias-corrected RCM for future assessment under representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for mid (2041–2070) and late century (2071–2100). The results of the study revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed flow with R 2 and Nash–Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) equal to 0.85 each for daily flow. For validation, R 2 and NSE were found to be 0.84 and 0.80, respectively. Compared to baseline period (1976–2005), the result of RCM showed an increase in temperature ranging from 2.36°C to 3.50°C and 2.92°C to 5.23°C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively, till the end of the twenty-first century. Likewise, the increase in annual average precipitation is 2.4% to 2.5% and 6.0% to 4.6% (mid to late century) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The model simulation results for RCP4.5 showed increase in flow by 19.24% and 16.78% for mid and late century, respectively. For RCP8.5, the increase in flow is 20.13% and 15.86% during mid and late century, respectively. The model was more sensitive towards available moisture and snowmelt parameters. Thus, SWAT model could be used as effective tool for climate change valuation and for sustainable management of water resources in future.

Download Full-text

Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Reforestation Activities on Water Resources in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain)

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su10093277 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (9) ◽

pp. 3277 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽

Sitian Liu ◽

Julio Pérez-Sánchez ◽

Adrián López-Ballesteros ◽

Patricia Jimeno-Sáez

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

River Basin ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Forest Area ◽

Se Spain ◽

Monthly Streamflow ◽

Agricultural Areas ◽

Water Assessment

Climate change and the land-use and land-cover changes (LULC) resulting from anthropic activity are important factors in the degradation of an ecosystem and in the availability of a basin’s water resources. To know how these activities affect the quantity of the water resources of basins, such as the Segura River Basin, is of vital importance. In this work, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for the study of the abovementioned impacts. The model was validated by obtaining a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.88 and a percent bias (PBIAS) of 17.23%, indicating that SWAT accurately replicated monthly streamflow. Next, land-use maps for the years of 1956 and 2007 were used to establish a series of scenarios that allowed us to evaluate the effects of these activities on both joint and individual water resources. A reforestation plan applied in the basin during the 1970s caused that the forest area had almost doubled, whereas the agricultural areas and shrubland had been reduced by one-third. These modifications, together with the effect of climate change, have led to a decrease of 26.3% in the quantity of generated water resources, not only due to climate change but also due to the increase in forest area.

Download Full-text

CLIMATE- AND LAND USE-INDUCED RISKS TO WATERSHED SERVICES IN THE NYANDO RIVER BASIN, KENYA

Experimental Agriculture ◽

10.1017/s001447971100007x ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 47 (2) ◽

pp. 339-356 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

MWANGI GATHENYA ◽

HOSEA MWANGI ◽

RICHARD COE ◽

JOSEPH SANG

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Sediment Yield ◽

Land Surface ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Surface Condition ◽

Water Yield ◽

Minor Effect ◽

Watershed Services

SUMMARYClimate change and land use change are two forces influencing the hydrology of watersheds and their ability to provide ecosystem services, such as clean and well-regulated streamflow and control of soil erosion and sediment yield. The Soil Water Assessment Tool, SWAT, a distributed, watershed-scale hydrological model was used with 18 scenarios of rainfall, temperature and infiltration capacity of land surface to investigate the spatial distribution of watershed services over the 3587 km2 Nyando basin in Western Kenya and how it is affected by these two forces. The total annual water yield varied over the 50 sub-basins from 35 to 600 mm while the annual sediment yield ranged from 0 to 104 tons ha−1. Temperature change had a relatively minor effect on streamflow and sediment yield compared to change in rainfall and land surface condition. Improvements in land surface condition that result in higher infiltration are an effective adaptation strategy to moderate the effects of climate change on supply of watershed services. Spatial heterogeneity in response to climate and land use change is large, and hence it is necessary to understand it if interventions to modify hydrology or adapt to climate change are to be effective.

Download Full-text

Comprehensive evaluation of the effects of climate change and land use and land cover change variables on runoff and sediment discharge

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2970 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Huilan Zhang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Soil Erosion ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Sediment Load ◽

Statistical Analyses ◽

Sediment Discharge ◽

Runoff Depth

<p>Climate change and various human activities have resulted in noticeable changes in watershed hydrological and soil erosion regimes. In this study, a comprehensive investigation was conducted to distinguish between the effects of climate variables and those of land use and land cover change (LUCC) variables on runoff and sediment discharge in a watershed located at upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Statistical analysis results revealed significant and slight increasing trends in runoff and sediment discharge, respectively. Abrupt changes occurred in 1974 and 1995, which divided the entire time series into a decrease&#8211;increase&#8211;decrease tendency pattern; this pattern was the response to climate changes and the Reforestation and Returning Farmland to Forest project in China. In addition, redundancy analysis was used for partition statistical analyses, and the contributions of climate change and LUCC to runoff and sediment discharge were at the ratio of 4:1. Since 1990, the effect of LUCC has increased notably and its relationship with hydrological variables changed from positive to negative in approximately 1995. Finally, simulations performed using the distributed Basic Pollution Calculation Center (BPCC) model confirmed that climate and LUCC variables reduced the runoff depth and sediment load between 1980 and 2003. The contributions of climate fluctuation and LUCC to runoff depth were at the ratio of 5:1, and those to sediment load were at the ratio of 3:1, which exhibited the dominant role of climate change and the high sensitivity of sediment load to human interference. Overall, the results of distributed hydrological modeling were consistent with those of statistical analyses. The results provided detailed information and explained the mechanics underlying hydrological processes and soil erosion.</p><p>&#160;</p>

Download Full-text