scholarly journals Partial Unlock Caseload Management for COVID-19 Can Save 1-2 Million Lives Worldwide

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Shuler ◽  
Theodore Koukouvitis
Keyword(s):  
Resource Utilization ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Human In The Loop ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Degree Of Certainty ◽  
The U.S

This paper analyzes the stability and usefulness of a human-in-the-loop caseload management method for COVID-19. This can control the balance between medical resource utilization and economic shutdown duration across significant scenario variation. It reduce the total cases by controlling the rate of spreading as groups cross the herd immunity threshold, and suggests late intervention has more effect on total cases than early intervention once containment has failed. Data as of April 11, 2020 show that “flattening” strategy for COVID-19 in both the world and the U.S. is working so well that a significantly effective removal of social distancing (aka “unlock”) at any time in the next few years, other than after widespread and effective vaccination, will produce a rebound overloading the healthcare system. For the world, by early April flattening was working so well that a world rebound could be projected in 2021 that would exceed in critical demand even the additional million or so ventilators requested by world governments. In the U.S., whose trajectory is somewhat ahead of the world, the projected rebound of a late year unlock is already greater than the current crisis projected peak. Most citizens are tacitly expecting much sooner rather than much later unlocks. Leaving economies locked down for a long time is its own catastrophe, especially for countries that cannot provide substantial economic aid to their citizens. An SIR-type model was used with clear parameters suitable for public information, and both tracking and predictive capabilities, and an additional simulation of a decision-maker on selected-day partial unlock designed mainly to manage ventilator or other critical resource utilization, to make sure they are neither idle nor over committed. Using certain days of the week, already practiced by some countries, is not a necessary part of the method, but was used in the simulation to give a highly quantified unlock scheme. It also helps restore economic activity. While the model shows total cumulative cases, and therefore deaths, declining initially with flattening, when flattening begins to produce large rebounds the death rate goes back up. Partial unlock to manage critical resources brings the cumulative cases down about 8-12% between now and the second half of 2021, and therefore saves lives with some degree of certainty.

scholarly journals Partial unlock caseload management for COVID-19 can save 1-2 million lives worldwide

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert L. Shuler ◽  
Theodore Koukouvitis
Keyword(s):  
Resource Utilization ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Human In The Loop ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Degree Of Certainty ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThis paper analyzes the stability and usefulness of a human-in-the-loop caseload management method for COVID-19. This can control the balance between medical resource utilization and economic shutdown duration across significant scenario variation. It reduce the total cases by controlling the rate of spreading as groups cross the herd immunity threshold, and suggests late intervention has more effect on total cases than early intervention once containment has failed. Data as of April 11, 2020 show that “flattening” strategy for COVID-19 in both the world and the U.S. is working so well that a significantly effective removal of social distancing (aka “unlock”) at any time in the next few years, other than after widespread and effective vaccination, will produce a rebound over-loading the healthcare system. For the world, by early April flattening was working so well that a world rebound could be projected in 2021 that would exceed in critical demand even the additional million or so ventilators re-quested by world governments. In the U.S., whose trajectory is somewhat ahead of the world, the projected re-bound of a late year unlock is already greater than the current crisis projected peak. Most citizens are tacitly expecting much sooner rather than much later unlocks. Leaving economies locked down for a long time is its own catastrophe, especially for countries that cannot provide substantial economic aid to their citizens. An SIR-type model was used with clear parameters suitable for public information, and both tracking and predictive capabilities, and an additional simulation of a decision-maker on selected-day partial unlock designed mainly to manage ventilator or other critical resource utilization, to make sure they are neither idle nor over committed. Using certain days of the week, already practiced by some countries, is not a necessary part of the method, but was used in the simulation to give a highly quantified unlock scheme. It also helps restore economic activity. While the model shows total cumulative cases, and therefore deaths, declining initially with flattening, when flattening begins to produce large rebounds the death rate goes back up. Partial unlock to manage critical resources brings the cumulative cases down about 8-12% between now and the second half of 2021, and therefore saves lives with some degree of certainty.

scholarly journals Partial unlock model for COVID-19 or similar pandemic averts medical and economic disaster

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert L. Shuler
Keyword(s):  
Medical Equipment ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Acquired Immunity ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Critical Resources

AbstractData as of March 29, 2020 show that the “flattening” strategy for COVID-19 in the U.S. is working so well that a clean removal of social distancing (aka “unlock”) at any time in 2020 will produce a renewed catastrophe, overloading the healthcare system. Leaving the economy locked down for a long time is its own catastrophe. An SIR-type model with clear parameters suitable for public information, and both tracking and predictive capabilities which “learns” disease spread characteristics rapidly as policy changes, suggests that a solution to the problem is a partial unlock. Case load can be managed so as not to exceed critical resources such as ventilators, yet allow enough people to get sick that herd immunity develops and a full unlock can be achieved in as little as five weeks from beginning of implementation. The partial unlock could be for example 3 full working days per week. Given that not all areas or individuals will respond, and travel and public gatherings are still unlikely, the partial unlock might be 5 full working days per week. The model can be regionalized easily, and by expediting the resolution of the pandemic in the U.S. medical equipment and volunteers, many of them with already acquired immunity, can be made available to other countries.

scholarly journals Partial Unlock Caseload Management for COVID-19 Can Save 1-2 Million Lives Worldwide

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Shuler ◽  
Theodore Koukouvitis
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Medical Resource ◽  
Medical Resource Utilization ◽  
Degree Of Certainty ◽  
Management Method ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Critical Resources

This paper analyzes the stability and usefulness of a caseload management method for COVID-19 or similar epidemics and pandemics. It reduces the total cases by controlling overshoot as groups cross the herd immunity threshold, balances medical resource utilization, and subject to those two constraints reduces economic shutdown duration across significant scenario variation. A quantitative analysis of overshoot is provided. An SIR-type model was used with clear parameters suitable for public information with tracking and predictive capabilities is used. It contains a simulation of a decision-maker for select-day partial unlock so that many scenarios can be quickly and impartially analyzed. Using certain days of the week, already practiced by some countries, is not a necessary part of the method, but was used in the simulation to give a highly quantified unlock scheme. While the model shows total cumulative cases, and therefore deaths, declining initially with flattening, when flattening begins to produce large rebounds the death rate goes back up. Partial unlock to manage critical resources had the consequential effects of reducing economic downtime and bringing the cumulative cases down about 8-12% between now and the second half of 2021, thereby saving lives with some degree of certainty. A gentle and decreasing slope of the increase in cases, which directly reduces total cases by avoiding overshoot, is difficult to accomplish by any other method.

Global Crisis Financial Policies

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Artan Nimani ◽  
Shpetim Rezniqi ◽  
Valbona Zeqiraj ◽  
Nevruz Zogu
Keyword(s):  
Free Market ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
State Intervention ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Financial Policies ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Time ◽  
High Level ◽  
Level Of Living

The current crisis has swept the world with special emphasis, most developed countries, those countries which have most gross -product world and you have a high level of living. Even those who are not experts can describe the consequences of the crisis to see the reality that is seen, but how far will it go this crisis is impossible to predict. Even the biggest experts have conjecture and large divergence, but agree on one thing:- The devastating effects of this crisis will be more severe than ever before and can not be predicted. Long time, the world was dominated economic theory of free market laws. With the belief that the market is the regulator of all economic problems. The market, as river water will flow to find the best and will find the necessary solution best. Therefore much less state market barriers, less state intervention and market itself is an economic self regulation.

scholarly journals A Bacterial Toxin that Causes DNA Damage to Modulate Cellular Responses

2001 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 190-191
Author(s):  
Maria Lara-Tejero
Keyword(s):  
Dna Damage ◽  
Campylobacter Jejuni ◽  
Mechanism Of Action ◽  
Dna Content ◽  
Cellular Responses ◽  
Bacterial Toxin ◽  
Cytolethal Distending Toxin ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The U.S

Campylobacter jejuni constitutes the leading cause of bacterial diarrhea in the U.S. and all around the world [1]. This common bacterium produces a toxin known as cytolethal distending toxin (CDT) [2] which causes intoxicated cells to enlarge and to stop dividing with a double DNA content characteristic of G2/M arrest [3]. The effect of the toxin on the cell is so striking that it captivated scientists for a long time. However, its mechanism of action had remained elusive.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC COVID-19 TO CRIMINAL ACTIVITY IN TRANSPORT

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-122
Author(s):  
Jaroslava Kubáňová ◽  
Iveta Kubasáková
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recession ◽  
Criminal Activity ◽  
Business Leaders ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Difference ◽  
To Come

2020 has been a year like no other for most of us, dominated by a virus that has cost over 1.15 million lives globally and plunged the world into an economic recession which the Chief Economist of the World Bank says it could take five years to recover from. For business leaders in every sector, over the past six months it has been almost impossible to focus on anything but finding the most sustainable way through this sudden and unexpected crisis – and, for most, it will be hard to think about anything else for a long time to come as they battle to protect the futures of their organisations. Against such a dramatic and damaging backdrop, every business can be forgiven for letting Covid-19 dominate their thinking. They have shareholders to satisfy, customers to support and jobs to protect. Right now, the very survival of companies of every size remains in the balance with no end date in sight to the current crisis. The pandemic has not stopped the crime either, we can eve say that the number of criminal activities has increased. In this article, we want to point out the difference between criminal activity in transport at the beginning of 2019 compared to 2020. The statistics are taken from the international database of criminal activities processed by TAPA EMEA.

scholarly journals Genetic resources provided by genetic engineering

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 84-91
Author(s):  
Pál Pepó
Keyword(s):  
Health Risks ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Future Application ◽  
Potential Health ◽  
Great Resistance ◽  
Gm Plants ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The U.S

The approach to genetic modification in plant breeding and the coexistence of traditional and biotech crops is not uniform all over the world. While in the U.S. the ratio of the GM-production reached 30-40%, from which it made no longer sense to differentiate between GM and conventional, in Europe there is great resistance to the new technology. Standpoints are also diverse about the environmental advantages, mainly knowing the facts that e.g. the tendency of herbicide/insecticide consumption in some places was the opposite than expected (increased) or the potential health risks possibly caused by GM foodstuffs. In Hungary the possible future application of GM plants has more disadvantages just right now instead of providing benefits to farmers from environmental, ecological and economical point of view. It seems that consensus is still far away, the debates will go on; the counterparts will abide by their opinions for a long time.  

scholarly journals Peer-to-peer lending in Vietnam and experience from other countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 211-218
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thi Thu Trang ◽  
Luong Xuan Minh ◽  
Vo Thi Ngoc Ha
Keyword(s):  
Legal Framework ◽  
Peer To Peer ◽  
Legal Issues ◽  
Practical Situation ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Time ◽  
P2p Lending ◽  
The U.S

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending is gaining popularity in Vietnam, especially in the past two years. In fact, this form of lending appeared a long time ago in the world with the establishment of Zopa in the U.K. in 2005. There is neither much research nor a strict legal framework on P2P lending in Vietnam. As a result, P2P lending platforms encounter many problems, especially legal issues during their operation in Vietnam. The article aims to provide a theoretical framework on P2P lending and the practical situation in developed markets such as the U.S. and European. We also present an overview of the P2P lending market and the performance of P2P lending platforms in Vietnam which we find not operating up to their essence. Based on the analysis and experience from other countries, we suggest some solutions to increase the effectiveness of this form of lending in Vietnam’s market.  

Inter-country inequality as a dynamic process and the problem of post-industrial development

2018 ◽  
pp. 5-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. M. Grigoryev ◽  
V. A. Pavlyushina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Modern World ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Development Level ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Post Industrial

The phenomenon of economic growth is studied by economists and statisticians in various aspects for a long time. Economic theory is devoted to assessing factors of growth in the tradition of R. Solow, R. Barrow, W. Easterly and others. During the last quarter of the century, however, the institutionalists, namely D. North, D. Wallis, B. Weingast as well as D. Acemoglu and J. Robinson, have shown the complexity of the problem of development on the part of socioeconomic and political institutions. As a result, solving the problem of how economic growth affects inequality between countries has proved extremely difficult. The modern world is very diverse in terms of development level, and the article offers a new approach to the formation of the idea of stylized facts using cluster analysis. The existing statistics allows to estimate on a unified basis the level of GDP production by 174 countries of the world for 1992—2016. The article presents a structured picture of the world: the distribution of countries in seven clusters, different in levels of development. During the period under review, there was a strong per capita GDP growth in PPP in the middle of the distribution, poverty in various countries declined markedly. At the same time, in 1992—2016, the difference increased not only between rich and poor groups of countries, but also between clusters.

TO THE QUESTION OF RESPONSIBILITY FOR TORTURE IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-106
Author(s):  
ASTEMIR ZHURTOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Life ◽  
International Standards ◽  
World Community ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Protection Of Human Rights ◽  
The Russian Federation

Cruel and inhumane acts that harm human life and health, as well as humiliate the dignity, are prohibited in most countries of the world, and Russia is no exception in this issue. The article presents an analysis of the institution of responsibility for torture in the Russian Federation. The author comes to the conclusion that the current criminal law of Russia superficially and fragmentally regulates liability for torture, in connection with which the author formulated the proposals to define such act as an independent crime. In the frame of modern globalization, the world community pays special attention to the protection of human rights, in connection with which large-scale international standards have been created a long time ago. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other international acts enshrine prohibitions of cruel and inhumane acts that harm human life and health, as well as degrade the dignity.Considering the historical experience of the past, these standards focus on the prohibition of any kind of torture, regardless of the purpose of their implementation.

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