scholarly journals The Timeline of a Pandemic: Have We Learned Anything in 102 Years?

Author(s):  
Gemma Green ◽  
Irrum Afzal ◽  
Sarkhell Radha

George Satayana stated that “those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it”. As our UK “good outcome” death toll of 20,000 from coronavirus (SARS CoV -2/ COVID -19) in 2020 has sadly been surpassed; never has a phrase been more pertinent. The last major pandemic on a similar scale to COVID-19 is “Spanish Flu” from 1918. We aim to delineate the timeline of events in response to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic and compare this to the timeline of COVID 19 response, given that the NHS and WHO have since both been long established. In the last 102 years many changes have occurred. Health services across the world have significantly improved, with the advent of mechanical ventilation and antimicrobial treatments. Vaccination programmes against common pathogens have prevented many large-scale disease threats, however novel illnesses have also emerged. Worldwide communication through the Internet and many agencies including the World Health Organisation has improved, and the awareness and surveillance of disease is more prominent. Despite advances in healthcare and communication, the national and international timeline for public health intervention in the current COVID pandemic in comparison to the Spanish flu pandemic of more than 100 years ago is virtually identical. The World Health Organisation operates to promote global health and prevent spread of disease, with this in mind; should the WHO have intervened earlier?​ We need to learn quickly from this pandemic and improve planning for the future.

Author(s):  
Alok Tiwari

ABSTRACTCOVID-19 epidemic is declared as the public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organisation in the second week of March 2020. This disease originated from China in December 2019 has already caused havoc around the world, including India. The first case in India was reported on 30th January 2020, with the cases crossing 6000 on the day paper was written. Complete lockdown of the nation for 21 days and immediate isolation of infected cases are the proactive steps taken by the authorities. For a better understanding of the evolution of COVID-19 in the country, Susceptible-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered (SIQR) model is used in this paper. It is predicted that actual infectious population is ten times the reported positive case (quarantined) in the country. Also, a single case can infect 1.55 more individuals of the population. Epidemic doubling time is estimated to be around 4.1 days. All indicators are compared with Brazil and Italy as well. SIQR model has also predicted that India will see the peak with 22,000 active cases during the last week of April followed by reduction in active cases. It may take complete July for India to get over with COVID-19.


2020 ◽  

In the past 100 years, the world has faced four distinctly different pandemics: the Spanish flu of 1918-1919, the SARS pandemic of 2003, the H1N1 or “swine flu” pandemic of 2012, and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Each public health crisis exposed specific systemic shortfalls and provided public health lessons for future events. The Spanish flu revealed a nursing shortage and led to a great appreciation of nursing as a profession. SARS showed the importance of having frontline clinicians be able to work with regulators and those producing guidelines. H1N1 raised questions about the nature of a global organization such as the World Health Organization in terms of the benefits and potential disadvantages of leading the fight against a long-term global public health threat. In the era of COVID-19, it seems apparent that we are learning about both the blessing and curse of social media.


2020 ◽  
Vol 90 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siddharth Raj Yadav ◽  
Rohit Kumar ◽  
Nitesh Gupta ◽  
Pranav Ish ◽  
Shibdas Chakrabarti ◽  
...  

To the EditorNovel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first notified in December 2019 from Wuhan, China. Now, it has spread rapidly and has been declared a pandemic affecting over 200 countries with widespread morbidity and mortality. It has been postulated that the most vulnerable population are the elderly, people living in crowded areas, children and immune-compromised individuals, such as people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The correlation of tuberculosis (TB), HIV and malnutrition are well documented and hence, people with tuberculosis should be considered as special population in this pandemic. TB is an ancient disease among humans recorded as far back as seventy thousand years which was declared a global public health emergency in 1993 by the World Health Organisation (WHO). India has the highest TB burden in the world.


Author(s):  
Erica Azevedo Costa ◽  
José Joffre Martins Bayeux ◽  
Aila Solimar Gonçalves Silva ◽  
Guilherme Alves De Queiroz ◽  
Beatriz Senra Álvares da Silva Santos ◽  
...  

West Nile virus (WNV) is a neurovirulent mosquito-borne Flavivirus that is maintained in nature by a zoonotic transmissioncycle between avian hosts and ornithophilic mosquito vectors, mostly from the Culex genus. Until the 1990s, WNV wasconsidered to be an old-world arbovirus, but in 1999, WNV emerged in the United States (US) and spread rapidly, becoming amajor threat to public health. WNV adapted to the transmission cycle involving American mosquitoes and birds and reachedCentral and South America in subsequent years. In 2003, the National West Nile Fever Surveillance System was created in Brazilbased on serological screening of animals and sentinel vectors, as recommended by the Pan American Health Organization(PAHO) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Since 2008, serological evidence of WNV infection in Brazilian horseshas been reported, and the circulation of WNV has been monitored through the regular serological screening of sentinel horsesand reporting of encephalomyelitis cases. Horses are highly susceptible to WNV infection, and outbreaks of neurologicaldisease among horses often precede human cases. In this regard, equine surveillance has been essential in providing earlywarning to public and animal health authorities in several countries, including Brazil. This demonstrates the need for animaland public health intervention programs to allocate resources to make veterinarians aware of the role they can play in thehuman surveillance processes by monitoring horses. This review discusses the importance of equine surveillance and the gapthat veterinarians can fill on the front line in human surveillance, in Brazil and worldwide, in the context of “One Health”


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Kate Hall

The name Wilson will be forever associated with co-author Jungner and ten principles of population screening published in 1968 by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as Public Health Papers No 34. These principles have since been used, modified or extended throughout much of Europe and beyond. Very little was known about Dr. J.M.G. Wilson and his life and how he came to write this monograph until the Silver Jubilee meeting of the International Society for Neonatal Screening held in The Hague in 2016. The opening session was chosen to be ‘The Wilson and Jungner criteria for screening for disease’.


2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 46-55
Author(s):  
Semra Čavaljuga ◽  
Michael Faulde ◽  
Jerrold J. Scharninghausen

At this moment, public health authorities, physicians and scientists around the world are struggling to cope with a severe and rapidly spreading new disease in humans called severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS. According to World Health Organisation (WHO) this appears to be the first severe and easily transmissible new disease to emerge in the 21st century. Though much about the disease remains poorly understood, including the details of the causative virus, we do know that it has features that allow it to spread rapidly along international air travel routes. As of 10 May 2003, a cumulative 7296 probable SARS cases with 526 deaths have been reported from 30 countries on three continents (WHO, ProMED). In the past week, more than 1000 new probable cases and 96 deaths were reported globally. This represents an increase of 119 new cases and 8 new deaths compared with 9 May 2003 (China (85), Taiwan (23), and Hong Kong (7) represented the overwhelming majority, with one additional case each reported from France, Malaysia, Singapore, and the United States). Only in China, as of 10 May 2003 (WHO) total of 4884 with 235 deaths have been reported. Some outbreaks have reassuring features.


Viruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hermann Meyer ◽  
Rosina Ehmann ◽  
Geoffrey L. Smith

Widespread vaccination programmes led to the global eradication of smallpox, which was certified by the World Health Organisation (WHO), and, since 1978, there has been no case of smallpox anywhere in the world. However, the viable variola virus (VARV), the causative agent of smallpox, is still kept in two maximum security laboratories in Russia and the USA. Despite the eradication of the disease smallpox, clandestine stocks of VARV may exist. In a rapidly changing world, the impact of an intentional VARV release in the human population would nowadays result in a public health emergency of global concern: vaccination programmes were abolished, the percentage of immunosuppressed individuals in the human population is higher, and an increased intercontinental air travel allows for the rapid viral spread of diseases around the world. The WHO has authorised the temporary retention of VARV to enable essential research for public health benefit to take place. This work aims to develop diagnostic tests, antiviral drugs, and safer vaccines. Advances in synthetic biology have made it possible to produce infectious poxvirus particles from chemicals in vitro so that it is now possible to reconstruct VARV. The status of smallpox in the post-eradication era is reviewed.


2000 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elaine S. Lindars ◽  
Jeff T. Spickett

The information on several environmental public health journal homepages has been assessed for its quality and quantity, using selected key criteria. These criteria included the extent of text available, the ability to search the website, the table of contents free via email, and the presence of hyper-links. A high degree of variability is seen, with services and facilities offered ranging from none to the entire journal available for no fee. The journal homepages that are the most comprehensive are those that are associated with major institutions and hence financed by contributions from their members or public money, i.e. the British Medical Association, the World Health Organisation and the US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. The journal homepages associated with these institutions offered full text of both current and archived issues as well as additions such as the ability to search other sites, web links, and in some cases hyper-linked references and information on related articles. The provision of text on the Internet should be an essential aim for all journal Homepages, to ensure fast and effective conveyance of information to health professionals. Asia Pac J Public Health 2000;12(1): 32-36


Author(s):  
A. M. Meer Ahmad ◽  
Chew Aik Koay

Introduction: In 1993, the International Task Force for Disease Eradication thought over and concluded that only six diseases are eradicable – but, malaria, dengue fever (and, dengue hemorrhagic fever) were not included. In 2010, 99 countries reported 219 million cases of malaria and 660,000 deaths. In Malaysia in 2011, 5152 cases had been reported causing not more than 30 deaths. Over 2.5 billion are at risk of dengue fever given the endemicity in excess of 100 countries, compared to nine countries in 1970. The WHO estimate 50-100 million cases annually globally, with approximately 500,000 dengue haemorrhagic fever, and an estimated 22,000 death each year. In Malaysia in 2017, there is found 83,849 reported cases of dengue fever with 177 deaths. There is a compelling need to give thought here to an elimination/eradication programme on dengue fever in Malaysia, realizing there is presently a malaria-elimination programme already. Aim: The Aim of this Review is to contemplate on the priority of possible public-health intervention of infectious-diseases, the International Task Force on Disease Eradication, and the three principle/indicators toward successful eradication/elimination programme, and the cost, beside describing the epidemiology and eradication/elimination of malaria in Malaysia, including the human and economic cost of malaria, in a comparison with dengue fever, including the dengue control & prevention programme and the potential in the innovative-methods, and why a dengue fever elimination programme is timely and imperative. Methodology: This article is a Narrative Review, and the author focus the article around three articles published by the author in recent times on dengue fever, and two on malaria. Additionally, the author contemplate around relevant newer article by various author retrieved through PubMed and Google Search. Results: Based on priority of possible public-health intervention of infectious-diseases by the International Task Force on Disease Eradication, and the principle/indicator(s) identified by the Task Force, and the Dahlem Conference, toward successful eradication/elimination programme, and the World Health Assembly on dengue fever, it is felt that a dengue fever elimination programme is timely and imperative, beside found very cost-beneficial. Conclusion: Mankind can eliminate dengue fever, even if not actually eradicating the disease, in a very much feasible and cost-beneficial programme, beginning in every nation and every region of the world, prior to grouping to become a global-programme.


2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (Suppl 3) ◽  
pp. A5.3-A6
Author(s):  
Agnes Saint-Raymond ◽  
Martin Harvey ◽  
Maria Cavaller

BackgroundThe European legislation introduced in 2004 (under article 58) a collaboration tool to increase access to high quality and effective medicines in low- and middle-income countries. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) can provide scientific opinions on medicines intended for significant public health needs, in partnership with the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the relevant ‘target’ non-EU regulatory authorities. This EU-Medicines4all (EU-M4all) initiative contributes to the broader Global Health Mandate of the EU.MethodsWe contacted the pharmaceutical companies holding ‘article 58’ scientific opinions and compiled the number of actual approvals based on these opinions.ResultsNine medicines have been assessed so far, most of them for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and maternal/new-born health. Although this figure may appear low, the impact of the corresponding scientific opinions is much wider. Approvals were granted in 66 different countries worldwide, 38 of which are in Africa, based on these opinions.DiscussionSuch scientific opinions on the quality, safety and efficacy of the medicines are provided by the EMA’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP). Prior to this, it is recommended to agree on the data to be generated through scientific advice. The opinions are based on the same standards as used for those approved for Europe, with considerations for local conditions of use. To promote reliance on EMA scientific outputs and awareness of the procedure, two training events with regulators from Southern and from Western Africa are organised in partnership with WHO, NEPAD and local regulators in June 2018.ConclusionWe have shown that this ‘article 58’ procedure has a true impact and we encourage applications by companies developing medicines, aimed to prevent or treat diseases of significant public health interest, to be marketed outside the EU. This will ensure timely access of medicines by patients in target countries all over the world.


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