scholarly journals A Hierarchical Framework for Assessing Transmission Causality of Respiratory Viruses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Jefferson ◽  
Carl Heneghan ◽  
Elizabeth Spencer ◽  
Jon Brassey ◽  
Annete Pluddeman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Viruses ◽  
Respiratory Pathogens ◽  
Hierarchical Framework ◽  
Modes Of Transmission ◽  
Hierarchy Of Evidence ◽  
Evidence Rules ◽  
History Of ◽  
Independent Replication ◽  
Chain Of Evidence ◽  
A Chain

We propose a hierarchical framework based on our experience of systematically reviewing and synthesizing 378 primary studies for an evidence-based update of the modes of transmission for SARS-CoV-2. These studies revealed significant methodological shortcomings with a lack of standardization in the design, conduct, testing and reporting of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. While this situation is in part excusable at the outset of a pandemic, evidence rules of proof for assessing the transmission of this virus are needed for this and future pandemics of viral respiratory pathogens. We review the history of causality assessment related to microbial etiologies with a focus on respiratory viruses and suggest a hierarchy of evidence to integrate clinical, epidemiologic, molecular and laboratory perspectives on transmission. The hierarchy, if applied to future studies, should narrow the uncertainty over the twin concepts of causality and transmission of human respiratory viruses. We attempt to address the translational gap between the current research evidence and the assessment of causality in the transmission of respiratory viruses with a focus on SARS-CoV-2. Experimentation, consistency and independent replication of research alongside our proposed framework provide a chain of evidence that can reduce the uncertainty over the transmission of respiratory viruses and increase the level of confidence in specific modes of transmission and the measures that should be undertaken to prevent transmission

Chains of Evidence

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bob Rehak
Keyword(s):  
Special Effects ◽  
History Of ◽  
Chain Of Evidence ◽  
Virtual Actors ◽  
Stop Motion ◽  
A Chain

A certain class of film acting has always depended on special effects for its realization. This chapter traces the history of augmented performance from its roots in cel and stop-motion animation to the digital “synthespian,” using the case of Gollum in the Middle Earth trilogy to argue that the sense of life for these characters relies on a “chain of evidence” through which the animator’s (and later actor’s) performance is channeled into the artificial screen body. Willis O’Brien’s creation of King Kong receives extended scrutiny, as does the 2001 film Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within. Ultimately, the chapter argues that augmented performance is central to the transmedia presence of virtual actors across media and platforms.

Preventive Medicine in World War II. Vol. IV: Communicable Diseases

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1959 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 312-312
Author(s):  
SAUL KRUGMAN
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Preventive Medicine ◽  
Alimentary Tract ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Highly Qualified ◽  
World War ◽  
Medical Department ◽  
Modes Of Transmission ◽  
Transmission Part ◽  
History Of

This book is the 4th volume of a series of the official history of the Medical Department, U.S. Army in World War II. It is the first of 3 volumes which will deal with the problems of communicable disease in military practice. This excellent book is written from the viewpoint of preventive medicine by 21 highly qualified authorities in the field of infectious diseases. It is divided into three sections: Part I—an introduction dealing with general considerations of modes of transmission; Part II—discussion of diseases transmitted chiefly through the respiratory tract; and Part III— diseases transmitted chiefly through the alimentary tract. It is an attractive, cleanly printed text, amply and cleanly illustrated with 91 tables and 48 charts.

scholarly journals Circulation of Respiratory Viruses in Hospitalized Adults before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brescia, Italy: A Retrospective Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (18) ◽  
pp. 9525
Author(s):  
Maria Antonia De Francesco ◽  
Caterina Pollara ◽  
Franco Gargiulo ◽  
Mauro Giacomelli ◽  
Arnaldo Caruso
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Syncytial Virus ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Respiratory Viruses ◽  
Influenza Viruses ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Nucleic Acid Detection ◽  
Respiratory Pathogens ◽  
Syncytial Virus ◽  
Human Coronaviruses

Different preventive public health measures were adopted globally to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2, such as hand hygiene and the use of masks, travel restrictions, social distance actions such as the closure of schools and workplaces, case and contact tracing, quarantine and lockdown. These measures, in particular physical distancing and the use of masks, might have contributed to containing the spread of other respiratory viruses that occurs principally by contact and droplet routes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of different respiratory viruses (influenza viruses A and B, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza viruses 1, 2, 3 and 4, rhinovirus, adenovirus, metapneumovirus and human coronaviruses) after one year of the pandemic. Furthermore, another aim was to evaluate the possible impact of these non-pharmaceutical measures on the circulation of seasonal respiratory viruses. This single center study was conducted between January 2017–February 2020 (pre-pandemic period) and March 2020–May 2021 (pandemic period). All adults >18 years with respiratory symptoms and tested for respiratory pathogens were included in the study. Nucleic acid detection of all respiratory viruses was performed by multiplex real time PCR. Our results show that the test positivity for influenza A and B, metapneumovirus, parainfluenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus and human coronaviruses decreased with statistical significance during the pandemic. Contrary to this, for adenovirus the decrease was not statistically significant. Conversely, a statistically significant increase was detected for rhinovirus. Coinfections between different respiratory viruses were observed during the pre-pandemic period, while the only coinfection detected during pandemic was between SARS-CoV-2 and rhinovirus. To understand how the preventive strategies against SARS-CoV-2 might alter the transmission dynamics and epidemic patterns of respiratory viruses is fundamental to guide future preventive recommendations.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between the Global Burden of Influenza From 2017 to 2019 and COVID-19: Descriptive Epidemiological Assessment (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan David Baral ◽  
Katherine Blair Rucinski ◽  
Jean Olivier Twahirwa Rwema ◽  
Amrita Rao ◽  
Neia Prata Menezes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
World Health ◽  
Respiratory Pathogens ◽  
Modes Of Transmission ◽  
The World ◽  
Influenza Activity ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Health Organization

BACKGROUND SARS-CoV-2 and influenza are lipid-enveloped viruses with differential morbidity and mortality but shared modes of transmission. OBJECTIVE With a descriptive epidemiological framing, we assessed whether recent historical patterns of regional influenza burden are reflected in the observed heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases across regions of the world. METHODS Weekly surveillance data reported by the World Health Organization from January 2017 to December 2019 for influenza and from January 1, 2020 through October 31, 2020, for COVID-19 were used to assess seasonal and temporal trends for influenza and COVID-19 cases across the seven World Bank regions. RESULTS In regions with more pronounced influenza seasonality, COVID-19 epidemics have largely followed trends similar to those seen for influenza from 2017 to 2019. COVID-19 epidemics in countries across Europe, Central Asia, and North America have been marked by a first peak during the spring, followed by significant reductions in COVID-19 cases in the summer months and a second wave in the fall. In Latin America and the Caribbean, COVID-19 epidemics in several countries peaked in the summer, corresponding to months with the highest influenza activity in the region. Countries from regions with less pronounced influenza activity, including South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, showed more heterogeneity in COVID-19 epidemics seen to date. However, similarities in COVID-19 and influenza trends were evident within select countries irrespective of region. CONCLUSIONS Ecological consistency in COVID-19 trends seen to date with influenza trends suggests the potential for shared individual, structural, and environmental determinants of transmission. Using a descriptive epidemiological framework to assess shared regional trends for rapidly emerging respiratory pathogens with better studied respiratory infections may provide further insights into the differential impacts of nonpharmacologic interventions and intersections with environmental conditions. Ultimately, forecasting trends and informing interventions for novel respiratory pathogens like COVID-19 should leverage epidemiologic patterns in the relative burden of past respiratory pathogens as prior information.

scholarly journals Anonymously Establishing Digital  Provenance in Reseller Chains

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Benjamin Philip Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Security Analysis ◽  
Security Requirements ◽  
Model Checker ◽  
Extended Version ◽  
Design Development ◽  
Provenance Information ◽  
Security Properties ◽  
History Of ◽  
Sequential Processes ◽  
A Chain

<p>An increasing number of products are exclusively digital items, such as media files, licenses, services, or subscriptions. In many cases customers do not purchase these items directly from the originator of the product but through a reseller instead. Examples of some well known resellers include GoDaddy, the iTunes music store, and Amazon. This thesis considers the concept of provenance of digital items in reseller chains. Provenance is defined as the origin and ownership history of an item. In the context of digital items, the origin of the item refers to the supplier that created it and the ownership history establishes a chain of ownership from the supplier to the customer. While customers and suppliers are concerned with the provenance of the digital items, resellers will not want the details of the transactions they have taken part in made public. Resellers will require the provenance information to be anonymous and unlinkable to prevent third parties building up large amounts of information on the transactions of resellers. This thesis develops security mechanisms that provide customers and suppliers with assurances about the provenance of a digital item, even when the reseller is untrusted, while providing anonymity and unlinkability for resellers . The main contribution of this thesis is the design, development, and analysis of the tagged transaction protocol. A formal description of the problem and the security properties for anonymously providing provenance for digital items in reseller chains are defined. A thorough security analysis using proofs by contradiction shows the protocol fulfils the security requirements. This security analysis is supported by modelling the protocol and security requirements using Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP) and the Failures Divergences Refinement (FDR) model checker. An extended version of the tagged transaction protocol is also presented that provides revocable anonymity for resellers that try to conduct a cloning attack on the protocol. As well as an analysis of the security of the tagged transaction protocol, a performance analysis is conducted providing complexity results as well as empirical results from an implementation of the protocol.</p>

scholarly journals Miasmas, mental models and preventive public health: some philosophical reflections on science in the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Trisha Greenhalgh
Keyword(s):  
Mental Models ◽  
Relative Weight ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Science And Policy ◽  
Hierarchy Of Evidence ◽  
John Snow ◽  
History Of ◽  
Support Policy ◽  
Preventive Public Health ◽  
Based Medicine

When the history of the COVID-19 pandemic is written, it is likely to show that the mental models held by scientists sometimes facilitated their thinking, thereby leading to lives saved, and at other times constrained their thinking, thereby leading to lives lost. This paper explores some competing mental models of how infectious diseases spread and shows how these models influenced the scientific process and the kinds of facts that were generated, legitimized and used to support policy. A central theme in the paper is the relative weight given by dominant scientific voices to probabilistic arguments based on experimental measurements versus mechanistic arguments based on theory. Two examples are explored: the cholera epidemic in nineteenth century London—in which the story of John Snow and the Broad Street pump is retold—and the unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and early 2021—in which the evidence-based medicine movement and its hierarchy of evidence features prominently. In each case, it is shown that prevailing mental models—which were assumed by some to transcend theory but were actually heavily theory-laden—powerfully shaped both science and policy, with fatal consequences for some.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of Respiratory Pathogens among Elderly Nursing Home Residents with Acute Respiratory Infections in Corsica, France, 2013–2017

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shirley Masse ◽  
Lisandru Capai ◽  
Alessandra Falchi
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Home ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Nursing Home Residents ◽  
Respiratory Viruses ◽  
Sudden Onset ◽  
Influenza Viruses ◽  
Influenza B ◽  
Acute Respiratory Infections ◽  
Respiratory Pathogens

Background. The current study aims to describe the demographical and clinical characteristics of elderly nursing home (NH) residents with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) during four winter seasons (2013/2014–2016/2017), as well as the microbiological etiology of these infections. Methods. Seventeen NHs with at least one ARI resident in Corsica, France, were included. An ARI resident was defined as a resident developing a sudden onset of any constitutional symptoms in addition to any respiratory signs. Nasopharyngeal swabs from ARI residents were screened for the presence of 21 respiratory agents, including seasonal influenza viruses. Results. Of the 107 ARI residents enrolled from NHs, 61 (57%) were positive for at least one of the 21 respiratory pathogens. Forty-one (38.3%) of the 107 ARI residents had influenza: 38 (92%) were positive for influenza A (100% A(H3N2)) and three (8%) for influenza B/Victoria. Axillary fever (≥38°C) was significantly more common among patients infected with influenza A(H3N2). Conclusion. The circulation of seasonal respiratory viruses other than influenza A(H3N2) seems to be sporadic among elderly NH residents. Investigating the circulation of respiratory viruses in nonwinter seasons seems to be important in order to understand better the dynamic of their year-round circulation in NHs.

Physical Distribution Problems of Textile Companies in Turkey

2016 ◽  
pp. 328-346
Author(s):  
Murat Selim Selvi
Keyword(s):  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Physical Distribution ◽  
Interview Guide ◽  
Distribution Process ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Chain Of Evidence ◽  
A Chain ◽  
Product Description ◽  
Thrace Region

The purpose of this study is to discover what sort of similar and different problems textile companies face in physical distribution process and provide suggestions. The research includes only six textile companies operating in the Thrace region, Tekirdag province, Çorlu and Çerkezköy districts. This research is an exploratory study. The interview guide used in the paper includes open-ended questions focusing on certain issues. The data are coded systematically and direct quotations were provided in the descriptive analysis. The participants' own words were the units for analysis. Data triangulation and a chain of evidence can be mentioned in this regard. These points ensure the reliability and construct validity of the research. Findings indicate that companies make mistakes and errors in product stacking, product codification, and product description. In addition, storage spaces of companies are insufficient; warehouses cannot be managed well. Companies face many problems such as the imbalance arising from working on minimum-maximum stock, faulty orders, and packaging materials.

scholarly journals The Clearing: Heidegger’s Lichtung and The Big Scrub

2010 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rob Garbutt
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
South Wales ◽  
History Of ◽  
A Chain ◽  
Settler Society ◽  
Rural Places ◽  
The Mind ◽  
History Of Migration

Clearings make settlement possible. Whether on a small scale using an axe and other hand implements to make way for a dwelling and a garden, or on a large scale with a chain strung between two D9 bulldozers in preparation for a major agribusiness development, the process of clearing creates spaces for installing something new. This paper uses the idea of (the) clearing, as practice, process, outcome and metaphor, to examine the installation of the locals in a settler society. Using Lismore on the far-north coast of New South Wales, Australia, as a case example, the particular work of clearing that is discussed here is a practice that enables a form of colonisation and settlement that distances itself from its history of migration. This is a history of settler locals who were 'always here', and a colonial form of clearing clears the land and the mind of troubling pasts and of troubling presences. For the locals within a place, then, clearing manages and simplifies a complex set of social and material relations, histories and identities.Using Anthony Appiah's concept the 'space clearing gesture', the paper concludes with a reflection on the space in which the idea of "the clearing" and this paper appears. Do places, in this instance rural places, provide a type of clearing in which certain ideas might appear that may not appear elsewhere? If situatedness matters then the diversity of places where thinking is done is important for our ecology of thought, and in connection with this, perhaps what 'rural cultural studies' does is clear a particular type of space for thinking.

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