Appraisal of Drought Indices based on Climatic Variability using DrinC Software for Potwar Region in Punjab Pakistan during 1981–2019

Drought is treated as a key natural disaster that affects numerous segments of the natural environment and economy throughout the world. Drought indices (DIs) were computed for Potwar region (PR) in Punjab-Pakistan, using DrinC software which are deciles, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Drought situation of 12, 9, 6 and 3 months was estimated on temporal basis. DIs obtained by deciles technique showed that for the last 39 years, 8-years are with drought severity in a cycle and are occurring every 2 to 7-years just the once repetitively. The RDI and SPI index showed the analogous trends as of deciles. Though, for RDI and SPI, the extremely dry and severely dry class was merely two years and rest of the drought affected years with respect to deciles were normally and intermediately dry. SPI is better as compared to deciles as the severity is better understood in the context of SPI. Regression analysis revealed that the RDI and SPI indices are mutually interrelated and if first 3 month precipitation is obtainable one can forecast yearly RDI. This investigation is valuable to devise future development plans to contest vulnerable drought incidents, its mitigation and impacts on socio-economic sectors.

Download Full-text

A novel index for ecological drought monitoring based on ecological water deficit: a case study of Northwestern China

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5439 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Tianliang Jiang ◽

Xiaoling Su

Keyword(s):

Water Deficit ◽

Time Scales ◽

Drought Index ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Northwestern China ◽

Drought Monitoring ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Different Time Scales

Although the concept of ecological drought was first defined by the Science for Nature and People Partnership (SNAPP) in 2016, there remains no widely accepted drought index for monitoring ecological drought. Therefore, this study constructed a new ecological drought monitoring index, the standardized ecological water deficit index (SEWDI). The SEWDI is based on the difference between ecological water requirements and consumption, referred to as the standardized precipitation index (SPI) method, which was used to monitor ecological drought in Northwestern China (NWRC). The performances of the SEWDI and four widely-used drought indices [standardized root soil moisture index (SSI), self-calibrated Palmer drought index (scPDSI), standardized precipitation-evaporation drought index (SPEI), and SPI) in monitoring ecological drought were evaluated through comparing the Pearson correlations between these indices and the standardized normalized difference vegetation index (SNDVI) under different time scales, wetness, and water use efficiencies (WUEs) of vegetation. Finally, the rotational empirical orthogonal function (REOF) was used to decompose the SEWDI at a 12-month scale in the NWRC during 1982&#8211;2015 to obtain five ecological drought regions. The characteristics of ecological drought in the NWRC, including intensity, duration, and frequency, were extracted using run theory. The results showed that the performance of the SEWDI in monitoring ecological drought was highest among the commonly-used drought indices evaluated under different time scales [average correlation coefficient values (r) between SNDVI and drought indices: SEWDI= 0.34, SSI= 0.24, scPDSI= 0.23, SPI= 0.20, SPEI= 0.18), and the 12-month-scale SEWDI was largely unaffected by wetness and WUE. In addition, the results of the monitoring indicated that serious ecological droughts in the NWRC mainly occurred in 1982&#8211;1986, 1990&#8211;1996, and 2005&#8211;2010, primarily in regions I, II, and V, regions II, and IV, and in region III, IV, and V, respectively. This study provides a robust approach for quantifying ecological drought severity across natural vegetation areas and scientific evidence for governmental decision makers.

Download Full-text

Dynamical delimitation of the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) using drought indices and aridity values

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment ◽

10.1177/0309133319860224 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 43 (5) ◽

pp. 627-642 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Luis Eduardo Quesada-Hernández ◽

Oscar David Calvo-Solano ◽

Hugo G Hidalgo ◽

Paula M Pérez-Briceño ◽

Eric J Alfaro

Keyword(s):

Drought Index ◽

Pacific Coast ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Severity Index ◽

Rainfall Anomaly ◽

Central American ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Southern Mexico

The Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) is a sub-region in the isthmus that is relatively drier than the rest of the territory. Traditional delineations of the CADC’s boundaries start at the Pacific coast of southern Mexico, stretching south through Central America’s Pacific coast down to northwestern Costa Rica (Guanacaste province). Using drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, Modified Rainfall Anomaly Index, Palmer Drought Severity Index, Palmer Hydrological Drought Index, Palmer Drought Z-Index and the Reconnaissance Drought Index) along with a definition of aridity as the ratio of potential evapotranspiration (representing demand of water from the atmosphere) over precipitation (representing the supply of water), we proposed a CADC delineation that changes for normal, dry and wet years. The identification of areas that change their classification during extremely dry conditions is important because these areas may indicate the location of future expansion of aridity associated with climate change. In the same way, the delineation of the CADC during wet extremes allows the identification of locations that remain part of the CADC even during the wettest years and that may require special attention from the authorities.

Download Full-text

A Study on the Estimation of the Occurrence Frequency of Mega-drought by the Characteristics of Drought Damage

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11927 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Song Youngseok ◽

Kim Jinbok ◽

Park Jongun ◽

Park Moojong

Keyword(s):

Drought Index ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Development Program ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Drought Indices ◽

The Past ◽

Short Period ◽

Recent Climate ◽

The World ◽

Drought Damage

Unlike natural disasters such as typhoons, torrential rains and floods, drought is a disaster caused by long-term effects as well as short-term effects. The effect of drought is caused by damage from a short period of weeks to a long period of years, which causes extensive and enormous damage to agriculture, life, society and economy. In addition, the recent climate change has affected the frequency and scale of rainfall in the global temperature, so it is necessary to prepare measures against it.The past studies on drought have been conducted using drought indexes such as agricultural, meteorological, and hydrological methods to evaluate drought. The representative drought indexes for each drought are Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Agricultural drought is Crop Moisture Index (CMI), Crop Specific Drought Index (CSDI), Hydrological drought is Surface Drought Water Supply Index (SWSI), Reclamation Drought Index (RDI) and so on are used. However, these drought indices are only used as a method of predicting the depth of drought, and do not give the actual number of drought occurrences.In this study, we want to determine the frequency of Mega-drought occurrences in consideration of the drought damage characteristics that occurred worldwide from 1900 to 2018. The drought damages in the world were used by EM-DAT (the Emergency Events Database) which manages disaster data in CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). Drought damages occurred in the world from 1900 to 2018 occurred more than once/years in 146 countries. The duration of drought persistence occurred in the country continuously for at least one to 17 years. The purpose of this study is to propose the criteria for mega drought by using the past victim data in connection with the incidence frequency.Acknowledges : This research was supported by a grant(2019-MOIS31-010) from Fundamental Technology Development Program for Extreme Disaster Response funded by Korean Ministry of Interior and Safety(MOIS).<div>&#160;</div>

Download Full-text

Mutual information applications to estimate the solar/ geomagnetic signatures in the drought indices in the Danube basin

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7319 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ileana Mares ◽

Venera Dobrica ◽

Constantin Mares ◽

Crisan Demetrescu

Keyword(s):

Mutual Information ◽

Drought Index ◽

Principal Component ◽

Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Orthogonal Functions ◽

Danube Basin ◽

The Difference ◽

Geomagnetic Activities

The climatic condition for the dry or wet situations from 15 meteorological stations in the Danube basin has been evaluated using four indices: Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), Weighted PDSI (WPLM) and Palmer Z-index (ZIND).The overall temporal characteristic of the four indices has been analysed by means of the principal component of the Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Functions decomposition (PC1-MEOF). Also, a simple drought index (TPPI) calculated as the difference between PC1 of the standardized temperature and precipitation, was considered.To find the simultaneous influence of both solar and geomagnetic activities on drought indices in the Danube basin, the difference between synergistic and redundant components for each season was estimated, using the mutual information between the analyzed variables. The greater this difference is, the greater the simultaneous signature of the two variables in the drought indices is more significant, than by taking each of the two variables separately.The solar activity was highlighted by Wolf numbers for the period 1901-2000 and for 1948-2000 by solar radio flux. For both periods the geomagnetic activity was quantified by the aa index.The most significant results for the 100-year period were obtained for the autumn season for which the two predictors representing solar and geomagnetic activities, if considered simultaneously could be one of the causes that produce extreme hydroclimatic events. The analysis from 1948-2000 revealed that the simultaneous consideration of the two external factors is more significant in the summer and autumn time.

Download Full-text

A Yield-Related Agricultural Drought Index Reveals Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Droughts in Southwestern China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11030714 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 714 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Lu Wu ◽

Liping Feng ◽

Yizhuo Li ◽

Jing Wang ◽

Lianhai Wu

Keyword(s):

Drought Index ◽

Yield Loss ◽

Production Systems ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climatic Variability ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Southwestern China ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Spatio Temporal

Southwestern China (SWC), one of the major rain-fed wheat production zones in China, has become vulnerable to drought in recent years under global climate change. To quantify drought severity during the wheat growing season and its impact on yield loss, we selected the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model to simulate wheat growth between 1961 and 2010 in SWC. A new drought index was developed considering different weighting factors of drought for yield loss in three growing phases. The index was shown to be reliable in assessing drought severity in the region. On average, an abnormal drought mainly occurred in mid-west Guizhou with a frequency of 10–30%. Central SWC was subjected to moderate drought with a frequency of 10–30%, whereas severe drought often occurred in Southern Sichuan and the middle of Yunnan with a frequency >50%. Temporally, drought severity fluctuated before 1990, but increased significantly afterwards. Our assessment suggested that irrigation during the period from floral initiation to flowering would help to ameliorate the effects of water stress under climatic variability in the region.

Download Full-text

Assessing Spatiotemporal Drought Dynamics and Its Related Environmental Issues in the Mekong River Delta

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs11232742 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (23) ◽

pp. 2742 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Tran ◽

Myint ◽

Latorre-Carmona ◽

Ho ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Land Surface ◽

Drought Index ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Statistical Significance ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Series Data ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Drought Severity

Drought is a major natural disaster that creates a negative impact on socio-economic development and environment. Drought indices are typically applied to characterize drought events in a meaningful way. This study aims at examining variations in agricultural drought severity based on the relationship between standardized ratio of actual and potential evapotranspiration (ET and PET), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and land surface temperature (LST) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) platform. A new drought index, called the enhanced drought severity index (EDSI), was developed by applying spatiotemporal regression methods and time-series biophysical data derived from remote sensing. In addition, time-series trend analysis in the 2001–2018 period, along with the Mann–Kendal (MK) significance test and the Theil Sen (TS) slope, were used to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of environmental parameters (i.e., LST, EVI, ET, and PET), and geographically weighted regression (GWR) was subsequently applied in order to analyze the local correlations among them. Results showed that a significant correlation was discovered among LST, EVI, ET, and PET, as well as their standardized ratios (|r| > 0.8, p < 0.01). Additionally, a high performance of the new developed drought index, showing a strong correlation between EDSI and meteorological drought indices (i.e., standardized precipitation index (SPI) or the reconnaissance drought index (RDI)), measured at meteorological stations, giving r > 0.7 and a statistical significance p < 0.01. Besides, it was found that the temporal tendency of this phenomenon was the increase in intensity of drought, and that coastal areas in the study area were more vulnerable to this phenomenon. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of EDSI and the potential application of integrating spatial regression and time-series data for assessing regional drought conditions.

Download Full-text

Comparative evaluation of precipitation-temperature based drought indices (DIs): A case study of Moroccan Lower Sebou basin

Kuwait Journal of Science ◽

10.48129/kjs.13911 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Oualid HAKAM ◽

◽

Abdennasser BAALI ◽

Touria EL KAMEL ◽

Ahouach Youssra ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Drought Index ◽

River Flow ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Data Availability ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Drought Event ◽

Precipitation Temperature ◽

Drought Conditions

Due to the lack of studies on drought in the Lower Sebou basin (LSB), the complexity of drought event and the difference in climate conditions. The identification of the most appropriate drought indices (DIs) to assess drought conditions has become a priority. Therefore, assessing the performance of different drought indices was considered in order to identify the universal drought indices that are well adapted to the LSB. Based on data availability, five DIs were used: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). The DIs were calculated on an annual scale using monthly time series of precipitation, temperature and river flow from 1984-2016. Thornthwaite's method was used to calculate potential evapotranspiration (PET). Pearson's correlation (r) were analyzed. Furthermore, five decision criteria namely robustness, traceability, transparency, sophistication and scalability were used to evaluate the performance of these indices. The results proved the fact that SPI is suitable to detect the drought duration and intensity compared to other indices with high correlation coefficients especially in sub humid regions, knowing that it tends to give more results that are humid in stations with semi-arid climates. SPI, SPEI and RDI follow the same trend during the period studied. However, sc-PDSI appears to be the most sensitive to temperature and precipitation by overestimating the drought conditions. Eventually, the results of the performance evaluation criteria revealed that SPEI classified first (total score = 137) among other meteorological drought indices, followed by SPI, RDI and sc-PDSI.

Download Full-text

Drought Monitoring Using Rainfall, Evapotranspiration and Streamflow Data: A Case Study of Kaduna River Catchment Area (Nigeria)

Journal of Scientific Research and Reports ◽

10.9734/jsrr/2020/v26i830303 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 133-144

Author(s):

A. Dare ◽

E. J. Zakka ◽

Maikano Samson ◽

A. O. Afolabi ◽

S. O. Okechalu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Catchment Area ◽

Drought Index ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Crop Damage ◽

Drought Monitoring ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Drought Conditions

Drought is defined as the lack of adequate precipitation, either rain or snow that causes reduced soil moisture or groundwater, diminished streamflow, crop damage and a general water shortage. The objective of this study focuses on meteorological and hydrological drought monitoring in river Kaduna catchment area. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) drought indices were used to characterize meteorological drought while Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) was used for hydrological drought monitoring for a period of 34 years (1967 – 2001). DrinC software, a drought indices calculator, was used for the calculation of SPI, RDI, and SDI respectively. The drought severity classification based on meteorological and hydrological drought indices gave 33% and 37% drought conditions period with the year 1967 – 2001. Based on these indexes, the drought characteristics of the catchment area were investigated by analyzing meteorological data from 1967 to 2001. The results of this analysis show that more non-drought/normal conditions were predominant than drought conditions. During the period under study (34 years), only one-year return period of extreme drought condition.

Download Full-text

Drought monitoring incorporating precipitation and climate variables and its application for future drought projection

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-13511 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jeongeun Won ◽

Sangdan Kim

Keyword(s):

Drought Index ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Management Program ◽

Drought Monitoring ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Climate Variables ◽

Evaporative Demand ◽

Monitoring Method

In drought monitoring, it is very important to select climate variables to interpret drought. Most drought monitoring interprets drought as deficit in precipitation, so drought indices focused on the moisture supply side of the atmosphere have been mainly used. However, droughts can be caused not only by lack of rainfall, but also by various climate variables such as increase in temperature. In this regard, interest in potential evapotranspiration(PET), which is an moisture demand side of the atmosphere, is increasing and a PET-based drought index has been developed. However, complex droughts caused by various climate variables cannot be interpreted as a drought index that only considers precipitation or PET. In this study, we suggest a drought monitoring method that can reflect various future climate variables, including precipitation. In other words, copula-based joint drought index(CJDI), which incorporate standardized precipitation index(SPI) based on precipitation and evaporative demand drought index(EDDI) based on PET, is developed. CJDI, which considers both precipitation and PET, which are key variables related to drought, is able to properly monitor the drought events in Korea. In addition, future Drought severity &#8211; duration - frequency curves are derived to project future droughts compared to various drought indices. It is shown that CJDI can be used as a more reasonable drought index to establish the adaptation policy for future droughts by presenting the pattern of future droughts more realistically.Acknowledgment: This study was funded by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as Smart Urban Water Resources Management Program. (2019002950004)Keywords: Climate change; Copula; Drought; CJDI; Drought severity-duration-frequency curve

Download Full-text

Revisiting drought trend over China during 1948-2016: a multivariate perspective

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4555 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Liliang Ren

Keyword(s):

Drought Index ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Severity Index ◽

Northeastern China ◽

Trend Detection ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Main Driver ◽

Land Data Assimilation System ◽

The Individual

How drought changes in the context of global warming is a concerning issue that influences the strategies of drought mitigation and drought management. Based on the simulations of the version 2 of Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS-2.0) during 1948-2016, we revisited the drought trend over China and analyzed the individual contributions of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) on varied drought patterns. Four composite drought indices including the Aggregate Drought Index (ADI), Joint Drought Deficit Index (JDI), self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) and Standardized Palmer Drought Index (SPDI) were employed for trend detection. Results showed that all four composite drought indices suggested a significant drying belt spreads from northeastern China to southwestern China, and a significant wetting trend in the &#8220;Three river sources&#8221; areas. Controversial patterns were mainly located in the northwestern China, Xinjiang districts, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, where the SPDI and JDI respectively, overestimated and underestimated the moisture conditions at varying degrees. According to the change point tests, it is found that the drying pattern in the northeastern China occurred since 1970s, where precipitation deficits and expanded PET jointly aggravated the drying process, while for the &#8220;Three river sources&#8221; areas, the increased precipitation since 2000s is the main driver for the wetting pattern.

Download Full-text