A Study on the Estimation of the Occurrence Frequency of Mega-drought by the Characteristics of Drought Damage

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song Youngseok ◽  
Kim Jinbok ◽  
Park Jongun ◽  
Park Moojong
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Development Program ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
The Past ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
The World ◽  
Drought Damage

<p>Unlike natural disasters such as typhoons, torrential rains and floods, drought is a disaster caused by long-term effects as well as short-term effects. The effect of drought is caused by damage from a short period of weeks to a long period of years, which causes extensive and enormous damage to agriculture, life, society and economy. In addition, the recent climate change has affected the frequency and scale of rainfall in the global temperature, so it is necessary to prepare measures against it.</p><p>The past studies on drought have been conducted using drought indexes such as agricultural, meteorological, and hydrological methods to evaluate drought. The representative drought indexes for each drought are Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Agricultural drought is Crop Moisture Index (CMI), Crop Specific Drought Index (CSDI), Hydrological drought is Surface Drought Water Supply Index (SWSI), Reclamation Drought Index (RDI) and so on are used. However, these drought indices are only used as a method of predicting the depth of drought, and do not give the actual number of drought occurrences.</p><p>In this study, we want to determine the frequency of Mega-drought occurrences in consideration of the drought damage characteristics that occurred worldwide from 1900 to 2018. The drought damages in the world were used by EM-DAT (the Emergency Events Database) which manages disaster data in CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). Drought damages occurred in the world from 1900 to 2018 occurred more than once/years in 146 countries. The duration of drought persistence occurred in the country continuously for at least one to 17 years. The purpose of this study is to propose the criteria for mega drought by using the past victim data in connection with the incidence frequency.</p><p>Acknowledges : This research was supported by a grant(2019-MOIS31-010) from Fundamental Technology Development Program for Extreme Disaster Response funded by Korean Ministry of Interior and Safety(MOIS).</p><div> </div>

scholarly journals Assessing Spatiotemporal Drought Dynamics and Its Related Environmental Issues in the Mekong River Delta

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 2742 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tran ◽  
Tran ◽  
Myint ◽  
Latorre-Carmona ◽  
Ho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity

Drought is a major natural disaster that creates a negative impact on socio-economic development and environment. Drought indices are typically applied to characterize drought events in a meaningful way. This study aims at examining variations in agricultural drought severity based on the relationship between standardized ratio of actual and potential evapotranspiration (ET and PET), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and land surface temperature (LST) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) platform. A new drought index, called the enhanced drought severity index (EDSI), was developed by applying spatiotemporal regression methods and time-series biophysical data derived from remote sensing. In addition, time-series trend analysis in the 2001–2018 period, along with the Mann–Kendal (MK) significance test and the Theil Sen (TS) slope, were used to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of environmental parameters (i.e., LST, EVI, ET, and PET), and geographically weighted regression (GWR) was subsequently applied in order to analyze the local correlations among them. Results showed that a significant correlation was discovered among LST, EVI, ET, and PET, as well as their standardized ratios (|r| > 0.8, p < 0.01). Additionally, a high performance of the new developed drought index, showing a strong correlation between EDSI and meteorological drought indices (i.e., standardized precipitation index (SPI) or the reconnaissance drought index (RDI)), measured at meteorological stations, giving r > 0.7 and a statistical significance p < 0.01. Besides, it was found that the temporal tendency of this phenomenon was the increase in intensity of drought, and that coastal areas in the study area were more vulnerable to this phenomenon. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of EDSI and the potential application of integrating spatial regression and time-series data for assessing regional drought conditions.

scholarly journals A Study on Establishment of Drought Index for Agricultural Disaster Prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 333-341
Author(s):  
Youngseok Song ◽  
Jingul Joo ◽  
Hayong Kim ◽  
Sangman Jeong ◽  
Moojong Park
Keyword(s):  
Rainy Season ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
The Past ◽  
Moderate Drought ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Rain Effect ◽  
Disaster Prediction ◽  
Drought Damage

This study aims to establish a drought index for disaster prediction in Gyeongsangnam-do, where the most agricultural drought damage occurred from 1965 to 2018. The drought index was analyzed for each duration (3, 6, 9, 12 months) targeting the SPI. Damage characteristics of the duration of agricultural drought were calculated. SPI for each duration of agricultural drought damage period in Gyeongsangnam-do was at least -2.0 or less, and the maximum was -1.0 or more, and weak and moderate drought were analyzed. However, due to the heavy rain effect during the rainy season, the average SPI12 was -1.06, and the impact of agricultural drought was negligible. It was analyzed that the correlation between the damage period of agricultural drought and the SPI by duration was high. However, there is not much difference in SPI for each duration to determine the occurrence of damage. In this study, the criterion for disaster prediction of agricultural drought was calculated as representative drought index by year as the minimum drought index of SPI for each duration of damage occurrence period of past agricultural drought. The Standard of drought index for disaster prediction was set to -1.64, the average of the SPI for each duration of year in which damage occurred in the past.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Extreme Cold and Drought over the Mongolian Plateau

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaofei Liu ◽  
Zhijun Yao ◽  
Heqing Huang ◽  
Batbuyan Batjav ◽  
Rui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Mongolian Plateau ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
Two Indices ◽  
High Consistency ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Extreme cold and meteorological drought in the Mongolian Plateau (MP) were investigated during 1969–2017. Several drought indices were evaluated by analyzing recorded historical drought data in the Chinese region of the MP. The evaluated drought indices were then applied to detect drought characteristics in the entire MP. The trends of extreme cold indices showed that the climate of the MP has warmed during the past 49 years; however, the frequency of cold day/night has increased in the Mongolian region. The climate of Mongolia has also become colder in the spring season. The comprehensive meteorological drought index (CMDI) and the standardized precipitation index with a six-month scale (SPI6) exhibited better performances, showing high consistency between the spatial patterns of the two indices. However, drought represented by the SPI6 was enhanced greater than that expressed by the CMDI. Drought in the MP has been enhanced during the past 49 years, particularly in the Ordos and Alashan plateaus and the Xiliao River basin in China. Moreover, drought has been enhanced from August to October, particularly in the Mongolian region. However, spring drought has shown a weakening trend, which has been beneficial for agriculture and husbandry sectors in some regions of the MP.

scholarly journals Different Agricultural Responses to Extreme Drought Events in Neighboring Counties of South and North Korea

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (15) ◽  
pp. 1773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jae-Hyun Ryu ◽  
Kyung-Soo Han ◽  
Yang-Won Lee ◽  
No-Wook Park ◽  
Sungwook Hong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Korea ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Condition Index ◽  
Agricultural Management ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Drought Indices

Satellite-based remote sensing techniques have been widely used to monitor droughts spanning large areas. Various agricultural drought indices have been developed to assess the intensity of agricultural drought and to detect damaged crop areas. However, to better understand the responses of agricultural drought to meteorological drought, agricultural management practices should be taken into consideration. This study aims to evaluate the responses to drought under different forms of agricultural management for the extreme drought that occurred on the Korean Peninsula in 2014 and 2015. The 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI3) and the 3-month vegetation health index (VHI3) were selected as a meteorological drought index and an agricultural drought index, respectively. VHI3, which comprises the 3-month temperature condition index (TCI3) and the 3-month vegetation condition index (VCI3), differed significantly in the study area during the extreme drought. VCI3 had a different response to the lack of precipitation in South and North Korea because it was affected by irrigation. However, the time series of TCI3 were similar in South and North Korea. These results meant that each drought index has different characteristics and should be utilized with caution. Our results are expected to help comprehend the responses of the agricultural drought index on meteorological drought depending on agricultural management.

Development of Agricultural Damage Estimation Technique Considering Regional Characteristics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee Heesup ◽  
Park moojong
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Response ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Development Program ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Regional Characteristics ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Government ◽  
Drought Damage

&lt;p&gt;Due to the effects of extreme weather conditions, extreme disasters such as floods and droughts are becoming more frequent worldwide.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In particular, drought is one of the long-term disasters unlike floods, with the greatest damage occurring in the agricultural sector in the event of a drought disaster.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This study investigated and analyzed the history of drought damage in Korea in the past, how the government responded to drought, and how to calculate the amount of drought damage in agriculture.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Based on the survey and analysis data, the methods for calculating agricultural drought damage in the past were supplemented, and realistic and practical methods for calculating agricultural drought damage were developed in consideration of regional characteristics in future drought disasters.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This research was supported by a grant(2019-MOIS31-010) from Fundamental Technology Development Program for Extreme Disaster Response funded by Korean Ministry of Interior and Safety(MOIS).&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Comparison of the Entropy- and Copula-based Precipitation-Streamflow Drought Indices for Assessing Agricultural Drought in Arid and Semi-arid Coastal Areas of Southern Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javad Bazrafshan ◽  
Zahra Azhdari
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Southern Iran ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Semi Arid ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In arid and semi-arid regions, precipitation and seasonal streamflow are the two major sources of water for vegetation. The scarcity of these water sources has a detrimental effect on vegetation cover degradation. The purpose of this research is to study the effect of meteorological and hydrological droughts, and also their combined effects, on vegetation changes in seven coastal sub-basins in southern Iran (part of the Bandar-Sedij and Kol-Mehran catchment). To track meteorological and hydrological droughts, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) were used. The copula function and the entropy approach (which is developed in this research) were used to blend individual meteorological and hydrological drought indices, yielding hybrid indices called the Copula-based Drought Index and the Entropy-based Drought Index (EnDI). The single (i.e., SPI and SDI) and hybrid drought indices (CoDI and EnDI) were compared in terms of temporal behavior, drought severity and duration characteristics, drought frequency, and a bivariate analysis of the drought severity-duration return period. The results indicated that the rank correlation (\({r}_{s}\)) between SPI and SDI ranged between 0.327 and 0.726 in the studied sub-basins. However, the two hybrid indices CoDI and EnDI had extremely high correlations (\({r}_{s}\ge 0.9\)). Despite the fact that meteorological droughts benefited both hybrid drought indices more than hydrological droughts, the contribution of meteorological droughts to EnDI was greater than that of CoDI. Over the study region, CoDI reported droughts that were both longer and more severe than those recorded by EnDI. EnDI showed stronger associations with the Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI) in nearly all the sub-basins, possibly because precipitation has a greater effect on EnDI than it does on CoDI. EnDI was therefore recommended as a superior index for estimating vegetation droughts throughout the research region.

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF THE SOIL MOISTURE AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT INDEX (SMADI) AND PRECIPITATION-BASED DROUGHT INDICES IN ARGENTINA

2020 ◽  
Vol IV-3/W2-2020 ◽  
pp. 53-58
Author(s):  
M. M. Salvia ◽  
N. Sánchez ◽  
M. Piles ◽  
A. Gonzalez-Zamora ◽  
J. Martínez-Fernández
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Hydric Stress ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract. Agricultural drought is one of the most critical hazards with regard to intensity, severity, frequency, spatial extension and impact on livelihoods. This is especially true for Argentina, where agricultural exports can represent up to 10% of gross domestic product (GDP), and where drought events for 2018 led to a decrease of nearly 0.5% of GDP. In this work, we investigate the applicability of the Soil Moisture Agricultural Drought Index (SMADI) for detection of droughts in Argentina, and compare its performance with the use of two well-known precipitation-based indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation- Evaporation Index (SPEI). SMADI includes satellite-based information of soil moisture, surface temperature and vegetation greenness, and was designed to capture the hydric stress on the soil-vegetation ensemble. Results indicate that SMADI has greater capabilities for agricultural drought detection than SPI and SPEI: it was able to recognize more than 83% of the registered emergencies, correctly classifying 75% of them as extreme droughts, and outperforming SPI and SPEI in all the analyzed metrics.

scholarly journals Spatial Evaluation of Droughts Using Selected Satellite-based Indices in the Upper Tana River Watershed, Kenya

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Harriette A. Okal ◽  
Felix K. Ngetich ◽  
Jeremiah M. Okeyo
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Noaa Avhrr ◽  
Tana River ◽  
Raster Maps

Aims: To identify the most appropriate drought indices for the identification and monitoring of historical meteorological and agricultural drought incidences and to explore the spatial characteristics of these droughts. Study design: GIS-based empirical research design. Place and Duration of Study: Upper Tana River Watershed, Kenya drought analysis covering a period of 1981 to 2013. Methodology: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) provided raster maps for Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) agricultural drought index, while GeoClim databased through Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) was used for retrieval of raster maps for Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) meteorological drought index. ArcGIS version 10.3.1 facilitated image enhancement and correction for better visualization and interpretation. Results: Agricultural drought years were in 1983, 1987, 1993, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2005, 2008, and 2009 while meteorological drought years were in 1983, 1984, 1992, 1996, 1999, 2002, 2003, and 2011. Conclusion: Meteorological drought triggered events of agricultural drought. Both droughts showed a widespread pattern and were found to manifest at relatively same intervals during the study period.

A novel index for ecological drought monitoring based on ecological water deficit: a case study of Northwestern China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianliang Jiang ◽  
Xiaoling Su
Keyword(s):  
Water Deficit ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Northwestern China ◽  
Drought Monitoring ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Different Time Scales

&lt;p&gt;Although the concept of ecological drought was first defined by the Science for Nature and People Partnership (SNAPP) in 2016, there remains no widely accepted drought index for monitoring ecological drought. Therefore, this study constructed a new ecological drought monitoring index, the standardized ecological water deficit index (SEWDI). The SEWDI is based on the difference between ecological water requirements and consumption, referred to as the standardized precipitation index (SPI) method, which was used to monitor ecological drought in Northwestern China (NWRC). The performances of the SEWDI and four widely-used drought indices [standardized root soil moisture index (SSI), self-calibrated Palmer drought index (scPDSI), standardized precipitation-evaporation drought index (SPEI), and SPI) in monitoring ecological drought were evaluated through comparing the Pearson correlations between these indices and the standardized normalized difference vegetation index (SNDVI) under different time scales, wetness, and water use efficiencies (WUEs) of vegetation. Finally, the rotational empirical orthogonal function (REOF) was used to decompose the SEWDI at a 12-month scale in the NWRC during 1982&amp;#8211;2015 to obtain five ecological drought regions. The characteristics of ecological drought in the NWRC, including intensity, duration, and frequency, were extracted using run theory. The results showed that the performance of the SEWDI in monitoring ecological drought was highest among the commonly-used drought indices evaluated under different time scales [average correlation coefficient values (r) between SNDVI and drought indices: SEWDI&lt;sub&gt;&lt;/sub&gt;= 0.34, SSI&lt;sub&gt;&lt;/sub&gt;= 0.24, scPDSI&lt;sub&gt;&lt;/sub&gt;= 0.23, SPI&lt;sub&gt;&lt;/sub&gt;= 0.20, SPEI&lt;sub&gt;&lt;/sub&gt;= 0.18), and the 12-month-scale SEWDI was largely unaffected by wetness and WUE. In addition, the results of the monitoring indicated that serious ecological droughts in the NWRC mainly occurred in 1982&amp;#8211;1986, 1990&amp;#8211;1996, and 2005&amp;#8211;2010, primarily in regions I, II, and V, regions II, and IV, and in region III, IV, and V, respectively. This study provides a robust approach for quantifying ecological drought severity across natural vegetation areas and scientific evidence for governmental decision makers.&lt;/p&gt;

Development of a Next Generation Drought Index: combining multiple global and local data sources to enable detection of sector-specific drought impacts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimmie Hendriks ◽  
Pieter Hazenberg ◽  
Jonas Gotte ◽  
Patricia Trambauer ◽  
Arjen Haag ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
Hazard Indices ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Drought Impacts ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Impact Data

&lt;p&gt;An increasing number of regions and countries are confronted with droughts as well as an increase in water demand. Inevitably, this leads to an increasing pressure on the available water resources and associated risks and economic impact for the water dependent sectors. In order to prevent big drought impacts, such as agricultural damage and food insecurity, timely and focused drought mitigation measures need to be carried out. To enable this, the detection of drought and its sector-specific risks at early stages needs to be improved. One of the main challenges is to develop compound and impact-oriented drought indices, that make optimal use of innovative techniques, satellite products, local data and other big data sets.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here, we present the development of a Next Generation Drought Index (NGDI) that combines multiple freely available global data sources (eg. ERA5, MODIS, PCR-GLOBWB) to calculate a range of relevant drought hazard indices related to meteorological, hydrological, soil moisture and agricultural drought (eg. SPI, SPEI, SRI, SGI, VCI). The drought hazard indices are aggregated at district level, while considering the percentage area exposure of the drought impacted sector (exposure). In addition, the indices are enriched with local and national scale drought impact information (eg. online news items, social media data, EM-DAT database, GDO Drought news, national drought reports). Results are presented at sub-national scales in interactive spatial and temporal views, showing the combined drought indices and impact data.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The NGDI approach is being tested for the agricultural sector in Mali, a country with a vulnerable population and economy that faces frequent dry spells which heavily impact the functioning of the important agricultural activities that sustain a large part of the population. The computed drought indices are compared with local drought data and an analysis is made of the cross-correlations between the indices within the NGDI and collected impact data.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We aim at providing the NGDI information to a broad audience as well as co-creation of further NGDI developments. Hence, we would like to reach out to interested parties and identify collaboration opportunities.&lt;/p&gt;

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document