Uncertainty and Risk Assessment Using Ensemble Modeling for Major Development Decision

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murad Asgarov ◽  
Ozan Arslan ◽  
Fidan Salim-Zade ◽  
Aghamehdi Aliyev ◽  
Turan Abdullayev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Reference Case ◽  
Actual Performance ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Well Location ◽  
Project Outcome ◽  
Major Development ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper summarizes a risk framing and assessment exercise to support a major development decision in Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli field located in Azerbaijani sector of Caspian Sea, using at scale implementation of ensemble modelling technique. A multi-disciplinary team identified a comprehensive list of geological and mechanical uncertainties and their inter-dependencies that could impact the project outcome. 20000 subsurface scenarios with unique uncertainty parameter combinations, based on Monte Carlo approach, were modeled using reservoir simulation software. Match quality to the actual performance helped to select an ensemble of unique subsurface scenarios. With the non-subsurface uncertainties in the predictive stage, the ensemble was used to inform the investment case's incremental value range. The ensemble predicted a cloud of outcomes around the reference case with -25% and +12% uncertainty range. This cloud assumed the same (reference case) sequence and location of the wells. The team selected distinct scenarios from the cloud to communicate the risks on key project metrics. Incremental recovery and production ramp-up variation against significant uncertainties guided the selection of distinct downside and upside scenarios for economic evaluation to ensure the robustness of development decision. The initial cloud was considered to be unmanaged as the well locations were exposed to reservoir property, connectivity, sweep, and other uncertainties for a specific scenario in the ensemble. The team recognized the long duration of development activities and tangible subsurface learning opportunities from drilling through multiple reservoirs and other surveillances, particularly on the key uncertainties ("heavy hitters"). This observation was leveraged to manage uncertainties and make appropriate well location and sequence decisions. Overall uncertainty range slightly narrowed down to -20 % and +16 % while providing an appropriate downside and upside profiles for the investment case. Assessing the impact of key uncertainties on investment value helped refining surveillance and risk management plan with focus areas on well and facility design to ensure risk management measures are executable.

Comparing co-production approaches to dynamic risk assessments in a forensic intellectual disability population: outcomes of a clinical pilot

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah J. Morris ◽  
Elanor L. Webb ◽  
Inga Stewart ◽  
Jordan Galsworthy ◽  
Paul Wallang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Intellectual Disability ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Management Plan ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
The Impact

Purpose A co-produced clinical practice that aims to improve outcomes through a partnership with service users is becoming increasingly important in intellectual disability (ICD) services, yet these approaches are under-evaluated in forensic settings. This study aims to explore and compare the feasibility of two approaches to co-production in the completion of dynamic risk assessments and management plans in a secure setting. Design/methodology/approach A convenience sample of adults admitted to a secure specialist forensic ICD service (N = 54) completed the short dynamic risk scale (SDRS) and drafted risk management plans under one of two conditions. In the first condition, participants rated the SDRS and risk management plan first, separately from the multidisciplinary team (MDT). In the second condition, participants and MDTs rated the SDRS and risk management plan together. Findings In total, 35 (65%) participants rated their risk assessments and 25 (47%) completed their risk management plans. Participants who rated their risk assessments separately from the MDT were significantly more likely to complete the SDRS (p = 0.025) and draft their risk management plans (p = 0.003). When rated separately, MDT scorers recorded significantly higher total SDRS scores compared to participants (p = 0.009). A series of Mann-Whitney U tests revealed significant differences between MDT and participant ratings on questions that required greater skills in abstraction and social reasoning, as well as sexual behaviour and self-harm. Originality/value Detained participants with an intellectual disabilities will engage in their dynamic risk assessment and management plan processes. The study demonstrates the impact of different co-production methodologies on engagement and highlights areas for future research pertaining to co-production.

Risk Analysis Using Simulation Software Applied on a Road Infrastructure Project

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijaya S. Desai
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Software Tools ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
The Body ◽  
Close Monitoring ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Infrastructure Project ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
The Impact

Risk management in infrastructure projects has been a very important process to achieve the project objectives, namely: time, cost, quality, safety and environmental sustainability. Huge investments are made in infrastructure construction projects like roads, railways, ports, airports, electricity, telecommunication, oil gas pipelines and irrigation. This growing Increase in investment in infrastructure investment projects demands requires close monitoring of costs to ensure a net return. The evaluation of returns on investment at the conceptual stage plays a vital role in this phase. Software tools help in bringing out near accurate analysis of returns on investments and to support project viability under multiple circumstances. The paper presents an analysis of how software was applied to evaluate and mitigate risk during the case of a six lane road infrastructure project. The unit of analysis was the impact of cost of construction cost, interest rates for loans, methods of depreciation, revenue sharing on various financial indices: IRR, MIRR, DSCR and payback period. The interpretation was that software tools can be used to perform risk analysis, sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. The case study makes a contribution to the body of knowledge by developing guidelines for using software tools in risk management.

scholarly journals International trade risk management under the impact of globalization

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 ◽  
pp. 01016
Author(s):  
Mariia Nezhyva ◽  
Olha Zaremba ◽  
Viktoriia Mysiuk
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
The Impact

Doing business in condition of international trade, a stable and competitive business environment is vital to operate efficiently and attract inward investment. Businesses can assess these factors alongside challenges such as corruption, political instability and terrorism to understand the strengths and weaknesses of an operating environment and for strategic investment decisions. In terms of open economy and globalization trends, business faced a lot of different challenges with their specific risks, hence an effective risk assessment approach and management is extremely vital for economic security of business and especially for all country doing business with other countries trying to succeed. The article presents risk management plan content that helps to structure business risk management process and provide with the measures how to deal with risks.

scholarly journals The Role of Social Media on Jordanian Universities and Practice of Risk Management

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossam Haddad
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Crisis Communication ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Crisis Communications ◽  
The University ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ministry Of Higher Education

AbstractThis research aims at: (1) identifying the impact of social media on Jordanian universities, in relevance to reputation and crisis communications; (2) investigating the measures applied to deal with possible reputation and crisis emergencies, and (3) developing a risk register for ensuring best practice of risk management. One hundred questionnaires were randomly distributed to 5 universities, and 20 students were selected from each one. The findings have revealed that the connection between social media and risk management has a great impact on the reputation of the university. In accordance with this, operational authorities in Jordan, as the Ministry of Higher Education should demonstrate to Jordanian universities how essential it is to implement a crisis communication and risk management plan in relevance to social media as well as other processes.

scholarly journals Price Based Environment of Design and Engineering Services

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Dean Kashiwagi ◽  
Geoffrey Child ◽  
Jacob Kashiwagi ◽  
Kenneth Sullivan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Performance Information ◽  
New Model ◽  
Management Capability ◽  
Best Value ◽  
Procurement System ◽  
The Impact

Design Services have not met the value and expectations of the clients and their project managers. A previous research project studied the impact of the price based award environment on construction practices, and this research proposes that designers’ current practices and expectations are also price based and not performance based asperceived by many due to the qualifications based system [QBS] approach. The authors also propose that the qualification-based system [QBS] is a price based system and should be replaced by a best value approach, which includes a best value selection process such as the Performance Information Procurement System (PIPS.) The proposed design model will give control and risk management capability back to designers by having the designers utilize expertise, create transparency utilizing a weekly risk report (WRR) and a risk management plan (RMP.) The new model utilizes the expert’s expertise to create transparency, giving the advantage to the higher performing professionals. The researchers interviewed over 400 professionals to validate the concepts of the best value approach for the design community.

Preliminary Risk Assessment at the Petra Archaeological Park Recording Strategy

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 295-312
Author(s):  
G. Cesaro ◽  
M. Santana Quintero ◽  
A. Paolini ◽  
P. J. De Vos ◽  
E. Glekas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
Time Lapse ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Comprehensive Management ◽  
Gps System ◽  
Gis System ◽  
Gis Software ◽  
The Impact

This paper describes the activities carried out in Petra by an international and multidisciplinary group of graduate students specializing in heritage conservation from the Raymond Lemaire International Centre for Conservation (RLICC), University of Leuven (Belgium) in cooperation with the University of Jordan, Faculty of Architecture, the Al Hussein Bin Talal University and in partnership with the UNESCO Office in Amman. The main objective of the work was to carry out a preliminary assessment of the risks affecting the integrity of the Petra World Heritage Property, due to both natural and man-made events so to understand the impact of the site's major threats. The outcomes provided the foundations necessary to develop a risk management plan, which should be integrated in the development of a comprehensive management plan for the site. The result of the overall study has been a preliminary risk management recommendation achieved through a rapid risk assessment of specific areas within the property, which readily identified vulnerabilities and threats to the state of conservation of the PAP. Outcomes of this work comprise two movies using time-lapse photography, 25 geo-referenced panoramas, a GIS system showing GPS track logs for all trails, satellite imagery and location of facilities, signage, monuments, 395 geo-referenced photos for the trails assessment, 105 geo-referenced photos for the areas assessment. An easy way to understand and visualize the circulation in the PAP was to bring the different trails on a satellite image through the use of a GPS system, combined with the ArcGIS software, in order to create a live track log while walking the trails in the PAP. Tracing this track log later in the GIS software indicated the actual location of parts of the PAP circulation and proved a very useful tool to retrieve the paths and areas analyzed.

The Impact of Shariah Governance and Corporate Governance on the Risk Management Practices: Evidence from Local and Foreign Islamic Banks in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Sabri Embi ◽  
Zurina Shafii
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
T Test ◽  
The Body ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Shariah Governance ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of Shariah governance and corporate governance (CG) on the risk management practices (RMPs) of local Islamic banks and foreign Islamic banks operating in Malaysia. The Shariah governance comprises the Shariah review (SR) and Shariah audit (SA) variables. The study also evaluates the level of RMPs, CG, SR, and SA between these two type of banks. With the aid of SPSS version 20, the items for RMPs, CG, SR, and SA were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA). From the PCA, one component or factor was extracted each for the CG, SR, and RMPs while another two factors were extracted for the SA. Primary data was collected using a self-administered survey questionnaire. The questionnaire covers four aspects ; CG, SR, SA, and RMPs. The data received from the 300 usable questionnaires were subjected to correlation and regression analyses as well as an independent t-test. The result of correlation analysis shows that all the four variables have large positive correlations with each other indicating a strong and significant relationship between them. From the regression analysis undertaken, CG, SR, and SA together explained 52.3 percent of the RMPs and CG emerged as the most influential variable that impacts the RMPs. The independent t-test carried out shows that there were significant differences in the CG and SA between the local and foreign Islamic banks. However, there were no significant differences between the two types of the bank in relation to SR and RMPs. The study has contributed to the body of knowledge and is beneficial to academicians, industry players, regulators, and other stakeholders.

scholarly journals Experimental and Numerical Study of Fracture Behavior of Rock-Like Material Specimens with Single Pre-Set Joint under Dynamic Loading

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 2690
Author(s):  
Bo Pan ◽  
Xuguang Wang ◽  
Zhenyang Xu ◽  
Lianjun Guo ◽  
Xuesong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Crack Initiation ◽  
Crack Propagation ◽  
Joint Angle ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Dissipated Energy ◽  
Energy Structure ◽  
Joint Angles ◽  
Crack Penetration ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact

The Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB) is an apparatus for testing the dynamic stress-strain response of the cement mortar specimen with pre-set joints at different angles to explore the influence of joint attitudes of underground rock engineering on the failure characteristics of rock mass structure. The nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) has also been used to measure the pore distribution and internal cracks of the specimen before and after the testing. In combination with numerical analysis, the paper systematically discusses the influence of joint angles on the failure mode of rock-like materials from three aspects of energy dissipation, microscopic damage, and stress field characteristics. The result indicates that the impact energy structure of the SHPB is greatly affected by the pre-set joint angle of the specimen. With the joint angle increasing, the proportion of reflected energy moves in fluctuation, while the ratio of transmitted energy to dissipated energy varies from one to the other. NMR analysis reveals the structural variation of the pores in those cement specimens before and after the impact. Crack propagation direction is correlated with pre-set joint angles of the specimens. With the increase of the pre-set joint angles, the crack initiation angle decreases gradually. When the joint angles are around 30°–75°, the specimens develop obvious cracks. The crushing process of the specimens is simulated by LS-DYNA software. It is concluded that the stresses at the crack initiation time are concentrated between 20 and 40 MPa. The instantaneous stress curve first increases and then decreases with crack propagation, peaking at different times under various joint angles; but most of them occur when the crack penetration ratio reaches 80–90%. With the increment of joint angles in specimens through the simulation software, the changing trend of peak stress is consistent with the test results.

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