Selection of CMIP6 GCM With Projection of Climate Over The Amu Darya River Basin
Abstract Global Climate Models (GCMs) are considered the most feasible tools to estimate future climate change. The objective of this study was to assess the interpretation of 19 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) in replicating the historical precipitation and temperature of climate prediction center data for the Amu Darya river basin (ADRB) and the projection of climate of the basin using the selected GCMs. The Kling Gupta efficiency (KGE) metric was used to assess the effectiveness of GCMs to simulate the annual geographic variability of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature (Pr, Tmx and Tmn). A multi-criteria decision-making approach (MCDMA) was used to integrate the KGE values to rank GCMs. The results revealed that MPI-ESM1-2-LR, CMCC-ESM2, INM-CM4-8 and AWI-CM-1-1-MR are the best in replicating observed Pr, Tmx and Tmn in ADRB. Projection of climate employing the selected GCMs indicated an increase in precipitation (9.9-12.4%) and temperature (1.3-5.5⁰C) in the basin for all the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), particularly for the far future (2060-2099). A significant variation can be seen in temperature over the different climatic zone. However, the intercomparison of selected GCM projected revealed high uncertainty in the projected climate. The uncertainty is higher in the far future and higher SSPs compared to the near future and lower SSPs.