scholarly journals Global Assessment of Spatiotemporal Variability of Wet, Normal and Dry Conditions using Multiscale Entropy-based Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijay Sreeparva ◽  
V.V Srini
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Multiscale Entropy ◽  
Spatiotemporal Trends ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Dry And Wet Conditions

Abstract In recent decades, human-induced climate change has caused a worldwide increase in the frequency/intensity/duration of extreme events, resulting in enormous disruptions to life and property. Hence, a comprehensive understanding of global-scale spatiotemporal trends and variability of extreme events at different intensity levels (e.g., moderate/severe/extreme) and durations (e.g., short-term/long-term) of normal, dry and wet conditions is essential in predicting/forecasting/mitigating future extreme events. This article analyses these aspects using estimates of a non-stationary standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index corresponding to different accumulation periods for 0.5˚ CRU resolution grids at globe-scale. Results are analyzed with respect to changes in land-use/landcover and location/geographic (latitude, longitude, elevation) indicators at different time scales (decadal/annual/seasonal/monthly) for each continent. The analysis showed an (i) increasing trend in the frequency/count of both dry and wet conditions and variability of dry conditions, and (ii) contrasting (decreasing) trend in the variability of wet conditions, possibly due to climate change-induced variations in atmospheric circulations. Globally, the highest variability in the wet and dry conditions is found during the Northern hemisphere's winter season. The decadal-scale analysis showed that change in variability in dry and wet conditions has been predominant from the 1930s and 1950s, respectively and is found to be increasing in recent decades.

scholarly journals Future hydrology and hydrological extremes under climate change in Asian river basins

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangam Shrestha ◽  
Deg-Hyo Bae ◽  
Panha Hok ◽  
Suwas Ghimire ◽  
Yadu Pokhrel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Climatic Extremes ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe diverse impacts of anthropogenic climate change in the spatiotemporal distribution of global freshwater are generally addressed through global scale studies, which suffer from uncertainties arising from coarse spatial resolution. Multi-catchment, regional studies provide fine-grained details of these impacts but remain less explored. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on the hydrology of 19 river basins from different geographical and climatic conditions in South and Southeast Asia. We find that these two regions will get warmer (1.5 to 7.8 °C) and wetter (− 3.4 to 46.2%) with the expected increment in river flow (− 18.5 to 109%) at the end of the twenty-first century under climate change. An increase in seasonal hydro-climatic extremes in South Asia and the rising intensity of hydro-climatic extremes during only one season in Southeast Asia illustrates high spatiotemporal variability in the impact of climate change and augments the importance of similar studies on a larger scale for broader understanding.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Trends of Aerosols over Urban Regions in Pakistan and Their Possible Links to Meteorological Parameters

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gohar Ali ◽  
Yansong Bao ◽  
Waheed Ullah ◽  
Safi Ullah ◽  
Qin Guan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Central Plains ◽  
Change Assessment ◽  
The North ◽  
Spatiotemporal Trends ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has become one of the most crucial parameters for climate change assessment on regional and global scales. The present study investigates trends in AOD using long-term data derived from moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) over twelve regions in Pakistan. Different statistical tests are used to assess the annual and seasonal trends in AOD. Results reveal increasing AOD trends over most of the selected regions with an obvious increase over the north and northeastern parts of the study area. Annually, increasing trends (0.0002–0.0047 year−1) were observed over seven regions, with three being statistically significant. All the selected regions experience increasing AOD trends during the winter season with six being statistically significant while during the summer season seven regions experience increasing AOD trends and the remaining five exhibit the converse with two being statistically significant. The changes in the sign and magnitude of AOD trends have been attributed to prevailing meteorological conditions. The decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature trends mostly support the increasing AOD trend over the selected regions. The high/low AOD phases during the study period may be ascribed to the anomalies in mid-tropospheric relative humidity and wind fields. The summer season is generally characterized by high AOD with peak values observed over the regions located in central plains, which can be attributed to the dense population and enhanced concentration of industrial and vehicular emissions over this part of the study area. The results derived from the present study give an insight into aerosol trends and could form the basis for aerosol-induced climate change assessment over the study area.

DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF EMULATORS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE GLOBAL-SCALE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (5) ◽  
pp. I_73-I_80
Author(s):  
Jun’ya TAKAKURA ◽  
Shinichiro FUJIMORI ◽  
Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI ◽  
Qian ZHOU ◽  
Naota HANASAKI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change

6600–6000 cal BC Abrupt Climate Change and Neolithic Dispersal from West Asia

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernhard Weninger ◽  
Lee Clare
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change ◽  
Western Anatolia ◽  
Southeast Europe ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Farming Communities ◽  
Anatolian Plateau ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Early Farming ◽  
New Hypothesis

Recent advances in palaeoclimatological and meteorological research, combined with new radiocarbon data from western Anatolia and southeast Europe, lead us to formulate a new hypothesis for the temporal and spatial dispersal of Neolithic lifeways from their core areas of genesis. The new hypothesis, which we term the Abrupt Climate Change (ACC) Neolithization Model, incorporates a number of insights from modern vulnerability theory. We focus here on the Late Neolithic (Anatolian terminology), which is followed in the Balkans by the Early Neolithic (European terminology). From high-resolution 14C-case studies, we infer an initial (very rapid) west-directed movement of early farming communities out of the Central Anatolian Plateau towards the Turkish Aegean littoral. This move is exactly in phase (decadal scale) with the onset of ACC conditions (~6600 cal BC). Upon reaching the Aegean coastline, Neolithic dispersal comes to a halt. It is not until some 500 years later—that is, at the close of cumulative ACC and 8.2 ka cal BP Hudson Bay cold conditions—that there occurs a second abrupt movement of farming communities into Southeast Europe, as far as the Pannonian Basin. The spread of early farming from Anatolia into eastern Central Europe is best explained as Neolithic communities’ mitigation of biophysical and social vulnerability to natural (climate-induced) hazards.

scholarly journals Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 665
Author(s):  
Chanchai Petpongpan ◽  
Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽  
Supattra Visessri ◽  
Duangrudee Kositgittiwong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Floods ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

Stress Testing to Assess Recovery from Extreme Events

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. John Plodinec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Stress Testing ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Potential Benefits

Abstract Over the last decade, communities have become increasingly aware of the risks they face. They are threatened by natural disasters, which may be exacerbated by climate change and the movement of land masses. Growing globalization has made a pandemic due to the rapid spread of highly infectious diseases ever more likely. Societal discord breeds its own threats, not the least of which is the spread of radical ideologies giving rise to terrorism. The accelerating rate of technological change has bred its own social and economic risks. This widening spectrum of risk poses a difficult question to every community – how resilient will the community be to the extreme events it faces. In this paper, we present a new approach to answering that question. It is based on the stress testing of financial institutions required by regulators in the United States and elsewhere. It generalizes stress testing by expanding the concept of “capital” beyond finance to include the other “capitals” (e.g., human, social) possessed by a community. Through use of this approach, communities can determine which investments of its capitals are most likely to improve its resilience. We provide an example of using the approach, and discuss its potential benefits.

scholarly journals Projections of Local Knowledge-Based Adaptation Strategies of Mexican Coffee Farmers

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 60
Author(s):  
Patricia Ruiz-García ◽  
Cecilia Conde-Álvarez ◽  
Jesús David Gómez-Díaz ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Local Knowledge ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Agroforestry Systems ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Coffee Farmers ◽  
Extreme Hydrological Events ◽  
Adaptation Policies

Local knowledge can be a strategy for coping with extreme events and adapting to climate change. In Mexico, extreme events and climate change projections suggest the urgency of promoting local adaptation policies and strategies. This paper provides an assessment of adaptation actions based on the local knowledge of coffee farmers in southern Mexico. The strategies include collective and individual adaptation actions that farmers have established. To determine their viability and impacts, carbon stocks and fluxes in the system’s aboveground biomass were projected, along with water balance variables. Stored carbon contents are projected to increase by more than 90%, while maintaining agroforestry systems will also help serve to protect against extreme hydrological events. Finally, the integration of local knowledge into national climate change adaptation plans is discussed and suggested with a local focus. We conclude that local knowledge can be successful in conserving agroecological coffee production systems.

scholarly journals Quantifying the Responses of Evapotranspiration and Its Components to Vegetation Restoration and Climate Change on the Loess Plateau of China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2358
Author(s):  
Linjing Qiu ◽  
Yiping Wu ◽  
Zhaoyang Shi ◽  
Yuting Chen ◽  
Fubo Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Vegetation Restoration ◽  
Vegetation Coverage ◽  
Ecological Planning ◽  
The Loess Plateau ◽  
Canopy Interception ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Spatiotemporal Trends

Quantitatively identifying the influences of vegetation restoration (VR) on water resources is crucial to ecological planning. Although vegetation coverage has improved on the Loess Plateau (LP) of China since the implementation of VR policy, the way vegetation dynamics influences regional evapotranspiration (ET) remains controversial. In this study, we first investigate long-term spatiotemporal trends of total ET (TET) components, including ground evaporation (GE) and canopy ET (CET, sum of canopy interception and canopy transpiration) based on the GLEAM-ET dataset. The ET changes are attributed to VR on the LP from 2000 to 2015 and these results are quantitatively evaluated here using the Community Land Model (CLM). Finally, the relative contributions of VR and climate change to ET are identified by combining climate scenarios and VR scenarios. The results show that the positive effect of VR on CET is offset by the negative effect of VR on GE, which results in a weak variation in TET at an annual scale and an increased TET is only shown in summer. Regardless of the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 or RCP8.5), differences resulted from the responses of TET to different vegetation conditions ranging from −3.7 to −1.2 mm, while climate change from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5 caused an increase in TET ranging from 0.1 to 65.3 mm. These findings imply that climate change might play a dominant role in ET variability on the LP, and this work emphasizes the importance of comprehensively considering the interactions among climate factors to assess the relative contributions of VR and climate change to ET.

scholarly journals Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland: co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heikki S. Lehtonen ◽  
Jyrki Aakkula ◽  
Stefan Fronzek ◽  
Janne Helin ◽  
Mikael Hildén ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
National Level ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Agriculture And Food ◽  
Farm Subsidies

AbstractShared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), developed at global scale, comprise narrative descriptions and quantifications of future world developments that are intended for climate change scenario analysis. However, their extension to national and regional scales can be challenging. Here, we present SSP narratives co-developed with stakeholders for the agriculture and food sector in Finland. These are derived from intensive discussions at a workshop attended by approximately 39 participants offering a range of sectoral perspectives. Using general background descriptions of the SSPs for Europe, facilitated discussions were held in parallel for each of four SSPs reflecting very different contexts for the development of the sector up to 2050 and beyond. Discussions focused on five themes from the perspectives of consumers, producers and policy-makers, included a joint final session and allowed for post-workshop feedback. Results reflect careful sector-based, national-level interpretations of the global SSPs from which we have constructed consensus narratives. Our results also show important critical remarks and minority viewpoints. Interesting features of the Finnish narratives compared to the global SSP narratives include greater emphasis on environmental quality; significant land abandonment in SSPs with reduced livestock production and increased plant-based diets; continued need for some farm subsidies across all SSPs and opportunities for diversifying domestic production under scenarios of restricted trade. Our results can contribute to the development of more detailed national long-term scenarios for food and agriculture that are both relevant for local stakeholders and researchers as well as being consistent with global scenarios being applied internationally.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document