Comparison of Framingham 10-Year Cardiovascular Event Risks in Native- and Foreign-born Primary Healthcare Populations in Sweden
Abstract BackgroundThe prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) around the world varies by ethnicity and region of birth. Immigrants living in Sweden may have a higher prevalence of CVD than native-born Swedes, but little is known about their actual risk of cardiovascular events (CVE). The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) uses cardiovascular risk factors to estimate the 10-year CVE risk. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship in Sweden between an elevated 10-year CVE risk and both birthplace and other risk factors.MethodsThis cross-sectional study was based on CVD risk factor data obtained from the 4D Diabetes Project, a Programme 4D subproject in Sweden. Participants were recruited from two primary healthcare centres in Stockholm, from 2013 through 2015, were between 18 and 74 years old, had no history of diabetes or pre-diabetes, and were divided into two birthplace groups (Sweden-born and foreign-born, the largest group born in the Middle East). FRS was calculated and 10-year CVE risk was determined for each participant. Logistic regression analysis was performed to generate odds ratios (OR) for the outcome, an elevated (≥10%) risk of CVE within 10 years. ResultsOf the 830 participants in the study, 170 (20.5%) had an elevated 10-year CVE risk. A significantly higher proportion of Sweden-born (vs. foreign-born) participants had an elevated 10-year CVE risk (35.6% vs. 12.9%; P < 0.0001). Foreign-born participants had a significantly lower mean age (45.6 vs. 55.8 years, P < 0.001), but a significantly higher proportion were smokers (23.9% vs. 13.7%; P = 0.001). Participants born in Sweden (vs. foreign-born) were almost two times more likely to have an elevated 10-year CVE risk, even when adjustments were made for age, sex, education, waist circumference, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level (Adjusted OR=1.73; 95% CI, 1.10-2.77).ConclusionsIn Sweden, native-born participants were more likely to have an elevated 10-year CVE risk than those born in other countries (including the Middle East). These results contradict reports of higher rates of CVD in Middle-Eastern countries than in Sweden. A cardiovascular risk scoring system modified for region of birth or ethnicity may be needed in Sweden.PermitAn ethical permit was granted by the Regional Ethical Review Board in Stockholm, review number 2013/2303-31/3.