Semi-Markov Modelling of HIV/AIDS Disease Progression
Abstract Background: HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to be the main challenge in the world. According to United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the World Health Organization (WHO) reports of 2013, 35 million people were living with HIV worldwide, with 2.1 million new infections and with 1.5 million deaths occurred each year. Among these, 24.7 million lived in sub-Saharan Africa with 1.5 million new infections and 1.1 million AIDS deaths.Method: The main objective of this study is finding factors affecting HIV/AIDS disease progression. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of factors on HIV/AIDS disease progression. Patient follow-up data is obtained at Yirgalim General Hospital. A sample of 370 Patient data from a follow-up cohort is obtained at Yirgalim General Hospital. Multivariate generalized hazard regression model was employed to investigate the disease progression using both time independent and time dependent covariates. Result: The study revealed that the risk of transition differs by patient's body mass index. Increase in the body mass index reduces the risk of transiting into the next worst states. The effects of sex, weight, age and body mass index of patients are significantly associated with AIDS disease progression. The risk of transition differs by patient's body mass index. Increase in the body mass index reduces the risk of transiting into the next worst states. The effect of sex, weight, age and body mass index of patients are significantly associated with AIDS disease progression. The results further revealed that the semi-Markov model with Weibull waiting time distribution has smaller log likelihood and AIC values compared to a semi-Markov model with exponential waiting time distribution.Conclusion: Transition probabilities are highly dependent on the choice of waiting times. We recommend that while choosing waiting time distributions for semi-Marko models one should consider appropriate distributions as waiting time distribution effect have a significant change on the estimated model parameters. In addition, this study recommends that concerned bodies should look at deferent contributing factors of AIDS diseases progression in addition to the ART services administered for slowing the current level of high diseased population in the country.