scholarly journals Gastroesophageal Reflux in Children With Idiopathic Bronchiectases: a Pilot Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cecilia Mantegazza ◽  
Giulia Rendo ◽  
Marta Pagano ◽  
Salvatore Zirpoli ◽  
Milena Meroni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastroesophageal Reflux ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Evaluation Study ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Wall Thickening ◽  
High Resolution Computed Tomography ◽  
Level Of Evidence ◽  
Lung Lobe

Abstract Background:The role of gastroesophageal reflux in bronchiectasis development is still object of discussion. We aimed to characterize gastroesophageal reflux (GER) in children with idiopathic bronchiectases (BC) and to analyse the relation with a morpho-functional High-Resolution Computed Tomography (HRCT) scoring systemMethods: Multiple esophageal impedance-pH (MII-pH) parameters in children with respiratory symptoms with and without BC were compared. In children with BC spirometry was performed and HRCT score was calculated by evaluating in each lung lobe: 1.bronchiectasis-peribronchial wall thickening, 2.mucous plugging, 3.abscess-sacculations, 4.consolidations, 5.others. HRCT score was related to MII-pH results. HRCT score accuracy in predicting pathological MII-pH was evaluated by ROC curve.Results: 20 children with BC and 20 without BC were enrolled. No significant differences were found in any MII-pH parameter between the two groups.Among BC children, 7/20 had a pathological MII-pH and didn’t show difference in respiratory function compared to those without GER. There were no significant correlation between HRCT score and MII-pH parameters but a direct (not significant) correlation with RI (r=0.240 p=0.307), acid refluxes (r=0.022 p=0.925) and SI/SAP (r=0.041 p=0.865). The mean value of the HRCT score in children with BC with pathological MII-pH was higher than in the ones with normal MII-pH (6.571 vs. 4.846, p=0.0929). The Area Under the Curve was 0.736. A HRCT score of 4.5 and 7.5 were associated with a negative predictive value of 86.5% and a positive predictive value of 75% respectively. Conclusions:Children with idiopathic BC had no distinct GER features. HRCT scoring system showed a moderate accuracy in predicting MII-pH results and a value ≤4.5 is rarely associated with a pathological MII-pH.Level of evidence:not properly applicable as it is a non-interventional diagnostic evaluation study.

scholarly journals Validation of the Shin Pain Scoring System: A Novel Approach for Determining Tibial Bone Stress Injuries

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 232596711987780
Author(s):  
Eric D. Nussbaum ◽  
Charles J. Gatt ◽  
Robert Epstein ◽  
Jeffrey R. Bechler ◽  
Kenneth G. Swan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Physical Examination ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Diagnostic Value ◽  
Level Of Evidence ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Additional Tool ◽  
Bone Stress ◽  
Stress Injuries

Background: The incidence of adolescent overuse injuries, including bone stress injuries (BSIs), is on the rise. The identification of a BSI in the early stages is key to successful treatment. The Shin Pain Scoring System (SPSS) was developed to aid clinicians in identifying patients with a BSI. Hypothesis: The SPSS will correlate with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) grading of a BSI in an adolescent population. Study Design: Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2. Methods: Enrolled in this study were 80 adolescent high school athletes between the ages of 13 and 18 years participating in a variety of sports with more than 1 week of atraumatic shin pain. The SPSS questionnaire was completed for each participant, and physical examination findings were recorded. Each question and physical examination item was allotted a point value, which totaled 29 points. Radiographs and MRI scans of both lower legs were obtained for each participant. The SPSS score was statistically analyzed using logistic regression, a classification matrix, and a 2 × 2 contingency table to evaluate validity and predictability. Results: Logistic regression analysis of our data determined that 3 categories of SPSS scores provided the highest diagnostic value when compared with MRI grading based on the Fredericson classification (0-4). The SPSS correctly identified 43.5% of injuries for category 1 (MRI grades 0-1), 62.5% for category 2 (MRI grade 2), and 50.0% for category 3 (MRI grades 3-4). Overall, the SPSS correctly identified the degree of BSI in 54.4% of all tibias studied. Binary analysis for validity demonstrated a sensitivity of 96%, specificity of 26%, positive predictive value of 76%, and negative predictive value of 71% for the SPSS relative to the “gold standard” MRI results. Conclusion: The SPSS is a potentially valid method to identify tibial BSIs, given the sensitivity and negative and positive predictive values. It also provides helpful categorization to alert clinicians to the presence of a BSI and direct further diagnostics and/or interventions. The SPSS should be considered as an additional tool to use when evaluating adolescents with atraumatic tibial BSIs.

scholarly journals Not All “Successful” Angiographic Reperfusion Patients Are an Equal Validation of a Modified TICI Scoring System

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed A Almekhlafi ◽  
Sachin Mishra ◽  
Jamsheed A Desai ◽  
Vivek Nambiar ◽  
Ondrej Volny ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cerebral Infarction ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Slow Flow ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Distal Branch ◽  
Vascular Occlusions ◽  
Prospective Database

Rapid reperfusion of the entire territory distal to vascular occlusions is the aim of stroke interventions. Recent studies defined successful reperfusion as establishing some perfusion with distal branch filling of <50% of territory visualized (Thrombolysis In Cerebral Infarction “TICI” 2a) or more. We investigate the importance of the quality of final reperfusion and whether a revision of the successful reperfusion definition is warranted. We retrospectively evaluated a prospective database of anterior circulation strokes treated using stentrievers to assess the quality of final reperfusion using two scores: the traditional TICI score and a modified TICI score. The modified TICI score includes an additional category (TICI 2c): near complete perfusion except for slow flow or distal emboli in a few distal cortical vessels. We compared different cut-off definitions of reperfusion (TICI 2a–3 vs. TICI-2b–3 vs. TICI 2c–3) using the area under the curve to identify their correlation with a favorable 90-day outcome (mRS≤2). In our cohort of 110 patients, 90% achieved TICI 2a-3 reperfusion with 80% achieving TICI 2b-3 and 55.5% achieving TICI 2c-3. The proportion of patients with a favorable 90-day outcome was higher in the TICI 2c (62.5%) compared to TICI 2b (44.4%) or TICI 2a (45.5%) but similar to the TICI 3 group (75.9%). A TICI 2c-3 reperfusion had a better predictive value than TICI 2b-3 for 90-day mRS 0–1. Defining successful reperfusion as TICI 2c/3 has merits. In this cohort, there was evidence toward faster recovery and better outcomes in patients with the TICI 2c vs. the traditional TICI 2b grade.

scholarly journals A computed tomography scoring system to assess pulmonary disease among premature infants

2010 ◽  
Vol 128 (6) ◽  
pp. 328-335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Márcia Cristina Bastos Boechat ◽  
Rosane Reis de Mello ◽  
Kátia Silveira da Silva ◽  
Pedro Daltro ◽  
Edson Marchiori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Computed Tomography ◽  
Premature Infants ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Intraclass Correlation ◽  
Pulmonary Involvement ◽  
Respiratory Morbidity ◽  
First Year ◽  
High Resolution Computed Tomography ◽  
First Year Of Life

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: High-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) is considered to be the best method for detailed pulmonary evaluation. The aim here was to describe a scoring system based on abnormalities identified on HRCT among premature infants, and measure the predictive validity of the score in relation to respiratory morbidity during the first year of life. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective cohort study in Instituto Fernandes Figueira, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. METHODS: Scoring system based on HRCT abnormalities among premature newborns. The affected lung area was quantified according to the number of compromised lobes, in addition to bilateral pulmonary involvement. Two radiologists applied the score to 86 HRCT scans. Intraobserver and interobserver agreement were analyzed. The score properties were calculated in relation to predictions of respiratory morbidity during the first year of life. RESULTS: Most of the patients (85%) presented abnormalities on HRCT, and among these, 56.2% presented respiratory morbidity during the first year of life. Scores ranged from zero to 12. There was good agreement between observers (intraclass correlation coefficient, ICC = 0.86, confidence interval, CI: 0.64-0.83). The predictive scores were as follows: positive predictive value 81.8%, negative predictive value 56.3%, sensitivity 39.1%, and specificity 90.0%. CONCLUSION: The scoring system is reproducible, easy to apply and allows HRCT comparisons among premature infants, by identifying patients with greater likelihood of respiratory morbidity during the first year of life. Its use will enable HRCT comparisons among premature infants with different risk factors for respiratory morbidity.

scholarly journals CT differential diagnosis of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 in symptomatic suspects: a practical scoring method

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Luo ◽  
Zhendong Luo ◽  
Yizhen Jia ◽  
Cuiping Zhou ◽  
Jianlong He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Scoring System ◽  
Posterior Part ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Lower Lobe ◽  
Image Features ◽  
Wall Thickening ◽  
Imaging Features ◽  
Ct Image ◽  
Scoring Method ◽  
Exposure History

Abstract Background Although typical and atypical CT image findings of COVID-19 are reported in current studies, the CT image features of COVID-19 overlap with those of viral pneumonia and other respiratory diseases. Hence, it is difficult to make an exclusive diagnosis.Methods Thirty confirmed cases of COVID-19 and forty-three cases of other aetiology or clinically confirmed non-COVID-19 in a general hospital were included. The clinical data including age, sex, exposure history, laboratory parameters and aetiological diagnosis of all patients were collected. Seven positive signs (posterior part/lower lobe predilection, bilateral involvement, rounded GGO, subpleural bandlike GGO, crazy-paving pattern, peripheral distribution, and GGO +/- consolidation) from significant COVID-19 CT image features and four negative signs (only one lobe involvement, only central distribution, tree-in-bud sign, and bronchial wall thickening) from other non-COVID-19 pneumonia were used. The scoring analysis of CT features was compared between the two groups (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19).Results Older age, symptoms of diarrhoea, exposure history related to Wuhan, and a lower white blood cell and lymphocyte count were significantly suggestive of COVID-19 rather than non-COVID-19 (p<0.05). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the combined CT image features analysis revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the scoring system was 0.854. These cut-off values yielded a sensitivity of 56.67% and a specificity of 95.35% for a score>4, a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 23.26% for a score>0, and a sensitivity of 86.67% and a specificity of 67.44% for a score>2.Conclusions With a simple and practical scoring system based on CT imaging features, we can make a hierarchical diagnosis of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 with different management suggestions.

scholarly journals A Comparative Study between Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE-II) Scoring System in Assessing the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis at Bangalore Medical College and Research Institute, Bangalore, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (36) ◽  
pp. 3269-3275
Author(s):  
Akhila Nallur Theerthegowda ◽  
Pavithra Umashankar ◽  
Nagashri Suresh Iyer
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Acute Pancreatitis ◽  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Apache Ii Score ◽  
Health Evaluation ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity

BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory disease of the pancreas, that results from intrapancreatic activation, release, and digestion of the organ by its own enzymes. The diagnosis of acute pancreatitis can be made when a patient presents with threefold elevated serum levels of amylase or lipase, abdominal pain and vomiting. In this study, we wanted to assess the severity of acute pancreatitis by using BISAP (Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis) and APACHE-II (Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation) scoring systems and compare the accuracy of BISAP scores with APACHE-II scores. METHODS A prospective study including 201 patients was conducted from April 2018 to March 2020 in Victoria Hospital, affiliated to BMCRI. RESULTS Among 201 AP patients, 129 were found to have mild acute pancreatitis (MAP), 72 were of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), 192 survival cases, and 9 death cases. The larger the rating score, the higher the proportion of severe pancreatitis and mortality risk. Two kinds of scoring criteria; BISAP score points and Apache II score points compared in patients with MAP and SAP, In Apache II score to predict severity of organ failure, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value was 84.72 %, 93.02 %, 87.14 %, 91.60 % and area under the curve was 0.958 (P < 0.0001). In BISAP, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value was 90.28 %, 80.62 %, 72.22 %, 93.69 % and area under the curve was 0.917 (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS Ability of APACHE II score prediction of AP in severity of organ failure and mortality are stronger than BISAP score, But APACHE II scoring system indicators were cumbersome, complicated assessment. BISAP scoring system is simple, economical, rapid and reliable, and it can effectively predict the severity and mortality of acute pancreatitis, and can be used as a preliminary screening method in accurate risk stratification and initiation of management accordingly at community health care, secondary health care and tertiary health care Hospitals. KEYWORDS Pancreatitis, Severity, Prediction, APACHE II and BISAP

scholarly journals CT differential diagnosis of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 in symptomatic suspects: a practical scoring method

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Luo ◽  
Zhendong Luo ◽  
Yizhen Jia ◽  
Cuiping Zhou ◽  
Jianlong He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Scoring System ◽  
Posterior Part ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Lower Lobe ◽  
Image Features ◽  
Wall Thickening ◽  
Imaging Features ◽  
Ct Image ◽  
Scoring Method ◽  
Exposure History

Abstract Background: Although typical and atypical CT image findings of COVID-19 are reported in current studies, the CT image features of COVID-19 overlap with those of viral pneumonia and other respiratory diseases. Hence, it is difficult to make an exclusive diagnosis.Methods : Thirty confirmed cases of COVID-19 and forty-three cases of other aetiology or clinically confirmed non-COVID-19 in a general hospital were included. The clinical data including age, sex, exposure history, laboratory parameters and aetiological diagnosis of all patients were collected. Seven positive signs (posterior part/lower lobe predilection, bilateral involvement, rounded GGO, subpleural bandlike GGO, crazy-paving pattern, peripheral distribution, and GGO +/- consolidation) from significant COVID-19 CT image features and four negative signs (only one lobe involvement, only central distribution, tree-in-bud sign, and bronchial wall thickening) from other non-COVID-19 pneumonia were used. The scoring analysis of CT features was compared between the two groups (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19).Results : Older age, symptoms of diarrhoea, exposure history related to Wuhan, and a lower white blood cell and lymphocyte count were significantly suggestive of COVID-19 rather than non-COVID-19 (p<0.05). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the combined CT image features analysis revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the scoring system was 0.854. These cut-off values yielded a sensitivity of 56.67% and a specificity of 95.35% for a score>4, a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 23.26% for a score>0, and a sensitivity of 86.67% and a specificity of 67.44% for a score>2.Conclusions : With a simple and practical scoring system based on CT imaging features, we can make a hierarchical diagnosis of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 with different management suggestions.

Evaluation of the clot burden score (cbs) for acute ischemic stroke (ais) in intent-to-treat patients.

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Yaziz ◽  
Ahmad Sobri Muda ◽  
Wan Asyraf Wan Zaidi ◽  
Nik Azuan Nik Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Clinical Outcome ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Treatment Decision ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Clot Burden

Background : The clot burden score (CBS) is a scoring system used in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) to predict patient outcome and guide treatment decision. However, CBS is not routinely practiced in many institutions. This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of CBS as a relevant predictor of good clinical outcome in AIS cases. Methods:  A retrospective data collection and review of AIS patients in a teaching hospital was done from June 2010 until June 2015. Patients were selected following the inclusion and exclusion criteria. These patients were followed up after 90 days of discharge. The Modified Rankin scale (mRS) was used to assess their outcome (functional status). Linear regression Spearman Rank correlation was performed between the CBS and mRS. The quality performance of the correlations was evaluated using Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results: A total of 89 patients with AIS were analysed, 67.4% (n=60) male and 32.6% (n=29) female. Twenty-nine (29) patients (33.7%) had a CBS ?6, 6 patients (6.7%) had CBS <6, while 53 patients (59.6%) were deemed clot free. Ninety (90) days post insult, clinical assessment showed that 57 (67.6%) patients were functionally independent, 27 (30.3%) patients functionally dependent, and 5 (5.6%) patients were deceased. Data analysis reported a significant negative correlation (r= -0.611, p<0.001). ROC curves analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.81 at the cut-off point of 6.5. This showed that a CBS of more than 6 predicted a good mRS clinical outcome in AIS patients; with sensitivity of 98.2%, specificity of 53.1%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 76%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 21%. Conclusion: CBS is a useful additional variable for the management of AIS cases, and should be incorporated into the routine radiological reporting for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) cases.

Diagnostic Value of Real-Time Shear Wave Elastography in Diagnosing Thyroid Cancer

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (12) ◽  
pp. 2818-2822
Author(s):  
Maria Cristina Oprea ◽  
Mihaela Vlad ◽  
Ioana Golu ◽  
Ioan Sporea ◽  
Lazar Fulger
Keyword(s):  
Shear Wave ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Thyroid Nodules ◽  
Imaging Techniques ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Thyroid Volume ◽  
Shear Wave Elastography ◽  
Maximum Diameter ◽  
Diagnostic Tools ◽  
Tissue Elasticity

Thyroid nodules are a common pathology found in 50 to 60% of otherwise healthy people. Diagnostic imaging techniques are help discriminating between benign and malignant nodules, while fine needle aspiration is still a gold standard. Shear wave elastography, a recent imaging technique, holds the promise to become reliable diagnostic tools and is currently used in combination with ultrasound. We here report data obtained in a series of 52 thyroid nodules analysed by means of elastography, as well as conventional and Doppler ultrasound. We found no differences in age, nodule and thyroid volume, length, width, thickness and maximum diameter between benign and malignant lesions. Several sonographic patterns are considered to be predictive of malignancy, out of which we only found the intranodular blood flow to be statistically significant. By the means of shear wave elastography we have first assessed tissue elasticities, which are shown in a range of colours, depending on tissue elasticity/stiffness. Then, we have measured and recorded four parameters automatically displayed by the system, namely SWE-mean, SWE-max, SWE-SD and SWE-ratio. Data analysis showed all these quantitative parameters had good sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under the curve, as calculated by the ROC curve. As with these parameters, the cut-off points were lower than in literature, still able to indicate reliable diagnoses, which were confirmed by histopathological exam. Our conclusion is that shear wave elastography has great potential for reliably and accurately diagnosing thyroid malignancies.

scholarly journals Development of a practical prediction score for acute renal injury after surgery for Stanford type A aortic dissection

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 746-753
Author(s):  
Ning Dong ◽  
Hulin Piao ◽  
Yu Du ◽  
Bo Li ◽  
Jian Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Aortic Dissection ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Type A ◽  
Postoperative Management ◽  
Prediction Score ◽  
Improve Patient

Abstract OBJECTIVES Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication of cardiovascular surgery that is associated with increased mortality, especially after surgeries involving the aorta. Early detection and prevention of AKI in patients with aortic dissection may help improve outcomes. The objective of this study was to develop a practical prediction score for AKI after surgery for Stanford type A acute aortic dissection (TAAAD). METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study that included 2 independent hospitals. A larger cohort of 326 patients from The Second Hospital of Jilin University was used to identify the risk factors for AKI and to develop a risk score. The derived risk score was externally validated in a separate cohort of 102 patients from the other hospital. RESULTS The scoring system included the following variables: (i) age &gt;45 years; (ii) body mass index &gt;25 kg/m2; (iii) white blood cell count &gt;13.5 × 109/l; and (iv) lowest perioperative haemoglobin &lt;100 g/l, cardiopulmonary bypass duration &gt;150 min and renal malperfusion. On receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the score predicted AKI with fair accuracy in both the derivation [area under the curve 0.778, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.726–0.83] and the validation (area under the curve 0.747, 95% CI 0.657–0.838) cohorts. CONCLUSIONS We developed a convenient scoring system to identify patients at high risk of developing AKI after surgery for TAAAD. This scoring system may help identify patients who require more intensive postoperative management and facilitate appropriate interventions to prevent AKI and improve patient outcomes.

Risk of Conversion to Arthroplasty After Hip Arthroscopy: Validation of a Published Risk Score Using an Independent, Prospectively Collected Database

2021 ◽  
pp. 036354652199382
Author(s):  
Mario Hevesi ◽  
Devin P. Leland ◽  
Philip J. Rosinsky ◽  
Ajay C. Lall ◽  
Benjamin G. Domb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Score ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Hip Arthroscopy ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Harris Hip Score ◽  
Brier Score ◽  
Level Of Evidence ◽  
Center Edge ◽  
Modified Harris Hip Score

Background: Hip arthroscopy is rapidly advancing and increasingly commonly performed. The most common surgery after arthroscopy is total hip arthroplasty (THA), which unfortunately occurs within 2 years of arthroscopy in up to 10% of patients. Predictive models for conversion to THA, such as that proposed by Redmond et al, have potentially substantial value in perioperative counseling and decreasing early arthroscopy failures; however, these models need to be externally validated to demonstrate broad applicability. Purpose: To utilize an independent, prospectively collected database to externally validate a previously published risk calculator by determining its accuracy in predicting conversion of hip arthroscopy to THA at a minimum 2-year follow-up. Study Design: Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 1. Methods: Hip arthroscopies performed at a single center between November 2015 and March 2017 were reviewed. Patients were assessed pre- and intraoperatively for components of the THA risk score studied—namely, age, modified Harris Hip Score, lateral center-edge angle, revision procedure, femoral version, and femoral and acetabular Outerbridge scores—and followed for a minimum of 2 years. Conversion to THA was determined along with the risk score’s receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and Brier score calibration characteristics. Results: A total of 187 patients (43 men, 144 women, mean age, 36.0 ± 12.4 years) underwent hip arthroscopy and were followed for a mean of 2.9 ± 0.85 years (range, 2.0-5.5 years), with 13 patients (7%) converting to THA at a mean of 1.6 ± 0.9 years. Patients who converted to THA had a mean predicted arthroplasty risk of 22.6% ± 12.0%, compared with patients who remained arthroplasty-free with a predicted risk of 4.6% ± 5.3% ( P < .01). The Brier score for the calculator was 0.04 ( P = .53), which was not statistically different from ideal calibration, and the calculator demonstrated a satisfactory area under the curve of 0.894 ( P < .001). Conclusion: This external validation study supported our hypothesis in that the THA risk score described by Redmond et al was found to accurately predict which patients undergoing hip arthroscopy were at risk for converting to subsequent arthroplasty, with satisfactory discriminatory, ROC curve, and Brier score calibration characteristics. These findings are important in that they provide surgeons with validated tools to identify the patients at greatest risk for failure after hip arthroscopy and assist in perioperative counseling and decision making.

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