scholarly journals Long term Temperature and Precipitation Trends Assessment in the state of Qatar and its Implication to Energy Water and Food Nexus

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Al-Ansari Tareq ◽  
Govindan Rajesh ◽  
Hazrat Bilal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Security Assessment ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Trade Offs

Abstract Climate change is one of the most severe global challenges of the present generation. Variations in temperature and precipitation can seriously affect water energy, water and food (EWF) security. Assessment of the ground-based observation of the climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation are vital for the overall decision-making process concerning energy, water and food security. In this study, temperature and precipitation data is investigated using the Mann Kendall, Pettitt and Watson tests and inter-annual variability assessment. Long-term temperature data indicates that the annual and seasonal temperature has increased significantly between 1987 and 2016. The mean temperature has increased by 1.02 ℃ over the period of observation. In contrast, the study determines that precipitation during the period of observation decreased by -12.6 mm. However, this decreasing trend is not statistically significant (p < 0.05). Furthermore, total monthly precipitation is observed to be decreasing during the winter (December-January-February-DJF) while increasing in spring (March-April-May-MAM), summer (June-July-August-JJA) and autumn (September-October-November-SON). Despite the observed increases in the seasonal temperature during JJA, MAM and SON, the decreasing trend in winter precipitation is of more concern as most of the rainfall is received during DJF. These results have serious implications for EWF resources and the ‘nexus’ between them. Such integrated resource management approaches not only lower the risks of a one-dimensional decision-making process, it can also identify interdependencies, synergies, and trade-offs amongst the EWF sectors. As an outcome of the calculated trends, this study recommends measures to improve the overall resilience of EWF sectors and to adapt and mitigate the negative consequences of the changing climate faced by these sectors.

scholarly journals Recent Declines in Western U.S. Snowpack in the Context of Twentieth-Century Climate Variability

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
David M. Wolock
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Decadal Scale

Abstract A monthly snow accumulation and melt model was used with monthly Precipitation-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) for 1900 through 2008 in the western United States. Averaged across the western United States, SWE generally was higher than long-term (1900–2008) average conditions during the periods 1900–25, 1944–55, and 1966–82; SWE was lower than long-term average conditions during the periods 1926–43, 1957–65, and 1984–2008. During the period 1900–2008, the temporal pattern in winter precipitation exhibited wetter-than-average and drier-than-average decadal-scale periods with no long-term increasing or decreasing trend. Winter temperature generally was below average from 1900 to the mid-1950s, close to average from the mid-1950s to the mid-1980s, and above average from the mid-1980s to 2008. In general, periods of higher-than-average SWE have been associated with higher precipitation and lower temperature. Since about 1980, western U.S. winter temperatures have been consistently higher than long-term average values, and the resultant lower-than-average SWE values have been only partially offset by periods of higher-than-average precipitation. The post-1980 lower-than-average SWE conditions in the western United States are unprecedented within the context of twentieth-century climate and estimated SWE.

scholarly journals High correlation between winter precipitation and air temperature in heavy-snowfall areas in Japan

2008 ◽  
Vol 49 ◽  
pp. 7-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukari Takeuchi ◽  
Yasoichi Endo ◽  
Shigeki Murakami
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
The Sea Of Japan ◽  
Heavy Snowfall ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Effective Factor ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
Precipitation Ratio ◽  
Term Data

AbstractLong-term data of winter air temperature and precipitation were analyzed and the correlation between them investigated in order to identify the factors influencing snow reduction during the recent warmer winters in the heavy-snowfall areas in Japan. A high negative correlation between winter precipitation and air temperature was identified in the heavy-snowfall areas on the Sea of Japan side in the center of the main island (Honshu). It was confirmed that precipitation is mainly caused by cold winter monsoons, and thus correlates to a large extent with air temperature in these areas. The precipitation decrease can be considered an effective factor for the recent reduction in snow as well as the snowfall to precipitation ratio. This should be taken into account for a better prediction of snow reduction in relation to global warming.

scholarly journals Context Analysis in the Development of Diving Technologies

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-58
Author(s):  
Ryszard Kłos
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Continuous Improvement ◽  
Previous Article ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Context Analysis ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Research Cycle ◽  
Level Of Risk

Abstract The previous article described a new approach methodology1 for work on the development of technology for the use of the SCR CRABE SCUBA2 type diving apparatus. However, after its publication numerous questions emerged regarding the genesis of the research undertaken, also from foreign partners using the same rebreather. The work on changing the technology of use was preceded by analyses, which were available only to people involved in the decision-making process. Demonstrating all the details of the decision-making process may be tedious, but failing to present them at all might raise justified doubts about the advisability of conducting a long-term research cycle. This article only presents preliminary analyses. The necessity to perform them resulted from the specific requirements for military technologies3 which, as broadly as possible, should be knowledge-based. The knowledge-based approach by its very nature allows continuous improvement of the adequacy of the predictions made, the estimation of the level of risk when diagnosing deviations from the repeatability or precision of the model, and the possibility of adapting the technology to the changing requirements of the user resulting from tactical considerations of its use.

scholarly journals A FORMALIZED ALGORITHM FOR OPTIMIZING THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS IN CONDITIONS OF STOCHASTIC UNCERTAINTY

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iryna Debela
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Distribution Function ◽  
Control Process ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Interval Estimate ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Stochastic Uncertainty ◽  
Functional Relationships ◽  
Decision Making Model

One of the main tasks of the decision support theory is the study of methods and tools for solving the problem of minimizing the negative consequences and risks in choosing strategic directions for the development of the studied system - the object of management. The formal algorithm of the optimization in conditions of the decision-making process stochastic uncertainty, and realization of steady states in system is investigated. The purpose of the algorithm model is to provide the predicted dynamics, compensation of structural, parametric uncertainty of the control system. The ambiguity of the choice the alternative solutions and as a consequence - the inadequacy of the mathematical model, due to the significant amount of stochastic and functional relationships, different ways of presenting input data, the impossibility formalizing the studied processes. Solutions in conditions of partial or complete uncertainty can be found by searching for elements of a set the alternatives, each of which with some probability may be the optimal solution. If statistical observations of the studied object or management process are incomplete, insufficiently formalized, or impossible at all, then the uncertainty of the decision to predict the directions of their possible development is clear. The decision-making process in conditions of uncertainty is proposed to be divided into stages: specification and formalization of the decision-making model; choice methods and algorithms for constructing alternatives taking into account the peculiarities of the chosen decision-making model. Parametric uncertainty is described as an interval estimate of possible values of the studied parameter. The interval can be strictly limited by numerical values, or with not clear limits - descriptive qualitative variables. Modeling of the control process in conditions of stochastic uncertainty is based on the definition of the object under study as a complex system. A promising area of research on this topic is a mathematical description of the value distribution function within the interval, which can be formalized on the basis of expert estimates, or as a heuristic probability distribution function of unpredictable events.

scholarly journals Investment analysis of plum brandy production – methodology approach

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 103-105
Author(s):  
Lari Hadelan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Analysis ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Investment Appraisal ◽  
Financial Decision ◽  
Plum Brandy

The major prerequisite of successful entrepreneurship venture is quality of decision-making process. Decision in investment is the most important financial decision. It is a part of both long-term business planning process and strategic business definition. Using available investment appraisal methods, entrepreneur should make positive or negative investment decision. Within the development of the economic theory and the practice many of methods made decision-making process rational and gave the scientific and practical base for successful project evaluation.

scholarly journals Climate change and landscape-use patterns influence recent past distribution of giant pandas

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1929) ◽  
pp. 20200358
Author(s):  
Junfeng Tang ◽  
Ronald R. Swaisgood ◽  
Megan A. Owen ◽  
Xuzhe Zhao ◽  
Wei Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Ailuropoda Melanoleuca ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Giant Pandas ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Climate change is one of the most pervasive threats to biodiversity globally, yet the influence of climate relative to other drivers of species depletion and range contraction remain difficult to disentangle. Here, we examine climatic and non-climatic correlates of giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ) distribution using a large-scale 30 year dataset to evaluate whether a changing climate has already influenced panda distribution. We document several climatic patterns, including increasing temperatures, and alterations to seasonal temperature and precipitation. We found that while climatic factors were the most influential predictors of panda distribution, their importance diminished over time, while landscape variables have become relatively more influential. We conclude that the panda's distribution has been influenced by changing climate, but conservation intervention to manage habitat is working to increasingly offset these negative consequences.

A troubled View of Current Trends in Forensic Psychiatry

1974 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seymour L. Halleck
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Forensic Psychiatry ◽  
Good Reason ◽  
Legal Issues ◽  
Social Conditions ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Social Purpose ◽  
Current Trends

Increasing involvement of psychiatrists in legal issues seems inevitable. As the courts are being asked to resolve more and more social conflicts they have understandably sought the assistance of specialists who allegedly bring expertise and prestige to the decision-making process. While psychiatrists can sometimes help the courts make more informed decisions, there is good reason to question whether much of current psychiatric involvement in legal issues serves a useful social purpose. Psychiatrists are also spending more time in the courtroom defending certain treatments of patients that had never before been questioned. The validity of attacks on certain psychiatric practices and the potential long-term effects on the treatment of patients must be reappraised in terms of current social conditions.

The Methodology for the Selection of Technologies for the Removal of Microorganisms from ETICS

2016 ◽  
Vol 820 ◽  
pp. 200-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naďa Antošová ◽  
Katarína Minarovičová
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Thermal Insulation ◽  
Composite System ◽  
Biological Materials ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Reasoning ◽  
Unicellular Organisms ◽  
Selection Of

The paper has the ambition to point out the validation of conceptual and a strategic reasoning in the design of solution of “green façade” with external thermal insulation composite system (ETICS). The text deals with selected information derived from long-term research on contamination of ETICS by biological materials (mostly unicellular organisms - algae). The paper concludes with a draft of decision-making process.

Executive and personality functioning and the ability to maintain prolonged abstinence in alcohol dependence

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (S2) ◽  
pp. 6-6
Author(s):  
B. Andó ◽  
A. Szkaliczki ◽  
S. Rózsa ◽  
E. Kurgyis ◽  
G. Drótos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Executive Functioning ◽  
Alcohol Dependence ◽  
Personality Factors ◽  
Novelty Seeking ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Personality Functioning ◽  
Behavior Preference ◽  
Prolonged Abstinence

IntroductionRecent studies have revealed that neurocognitive and personality domains are important contributors of prolonged abstinence in alcohol dependence.Objectives/aimsTo reveal further factors related to the ability of maintaining prolonged abstinence in alcohol dependence. Therefore executive and personality functioning were compared of patients with short (STA) and long-term abstinence (LTA).MethodsSTA patients (N = 44) were involved from an inpatient center, LTA patients (N = 46; min. 3 years of abstinence) were involved from AA Groups. Decision-making, inhibition and planning as components of executive functioning, coping strategy, temperament and character factors as indicators of personality functioning were evaluated. MANCOVA and Mann-Whitney U statistical analyses were applied to compare the two groups.ResultsNo significant differences were found between the STA and LTA patients along decision-making (F = 0.008, p = 0.992), planning (Mann-Whitney U = 794.5, p = 0.065) and inhibition (Mann-Whitney U = 921.5, p = 0.442). Lower levels of novelty seeking and harm avoidance and higher levels of self-directedness and cooperativeness were found in the LTA group (F = 3.32, p = 0.001) along with lower level of emotion oriented coping (F = 3.32, p = 0.001).ConclusionsDecision-making, inhibition and planning components of executive functioning are independent from the length of abstinence in alcohol dependence. The similar decision-making pattern of the two groups reflect the core feature of addictive behavior; preference toward immediate higher reward and lower punishment despite the long term negative consequences. It is hypothesized that the higher levels of adaptive personality factors in the LTA group decrease the risk of relapse, and contribute to the ability of maintaining prolonged abstinence.

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