scholarly journals Vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 variants: how much containment is still needed? A quantitative assessment.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giulia Giordano ◽  
Marta Colaneri ◽  
Alessandro Di Filippo ◽  
Franco Blanchini ◽  
Paolo Bolzern ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare System ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Despite the progress in medical care, combined population-wide interventions (such as physical distancing, testing and contact tracing) are still crucial to manage the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, aggravated by the emergence of new highly transmissible variants. We combine the compartmental SIDARTHE model, predicting the course of COVID-19 infections, with a new data-based model that projects new cases onto casualties and healthcare system costs. Based on the Italian case study, we outline several scenarios: mass vaccination campaigns with different paces, different transmission rates due to new variants, and different enforced countermeasures, including the alternation of opening and closure phases. Our results demonstrate that non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have a higher impact on the epidemic evolution than vaccination, which advocates for the need to keep containment measures in place throughout the vaccination campaign. We also show that, if intermittent open-close strategies are adopted, deaths and healthcare system costs can be drastically reduced, without any aggravation of socioeconomic losses, as long as one has the foresight to start with a closing phase rather than an opening one.

scholarly journals Modeling vaccination rollouts, SARS-CoV-2 variants and the requirement for non-pharmaceutical interventions in Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giulia Giordano ◽  
Marta Colaneri ◽  
Alessandro Di Filippo ◽  
Franco Blanchini ◽  
Paolo Bolzern ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare System ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Mass Vaccination ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractDespite progress in clinical care for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)1, population-wide interventions are still crucial to manage the pandemic, which has been aggravated by the emergence of new, highly transmissible variants. In this study, we combined the SIDARTHE model2, which predicts the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections, with a new data-based model that projects new cases onto casualties and healthcare system costs. Based on the Italian case study, we outline several scenarios: mass vaccination campaigns with different paces, different transmission rates due to new variants and different enforced countermeasures, including the alternation of opening and closure phases. Our results demonstrate that non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have a higher effect on the epidemic evolution than vaccination alone, advocating for the need to keep NPIs in place during the first phase of the vaccination campaign. Our model predicts that, from April 2021 to January 2022, in a scenario with no vaccine rollout and weak NPIs ($${\cal{R}}_0$$ R 0 = 1.27), as many as 298,000 deaths associated with COVID-19 could occur. However, fast vaccination rollouts could reduce mortality to as few as 51,000 deaths. Implementation of restrictive NPIs ($${\cal{R}}_0$$ R 0 = 0.9) could reduce COVID-19 deaths to 30,000 without vaccinating the population and to 18,000 with a fast rollout of vaccines. We also show that, if intermittent open–close strategies are adopted, implementing a closing phase first could reduce deaths (from 47,000 to 27,000 with slow vaccine rollout) and healthcare system costs, without substantive aggravation of socioeconomic losses.

scholarly journals A Control Based Mathematical Model for the Evaluation of Intervention Lines in COVID-19 Epidemic Spread: The Italian Case Study

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Paolo Di Giamberardino ◽  
Rita Caldarella ◽  
Daniela Iacoviello
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Control Actions ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Asymptomatic Subjects ◽  
The Impact

This paper addresses the problem of describing the spread of COVID-19 by a mathematical model introducing all the possible control actions as prevention (informative campaign, use of masks, social distancing, vaccination) and medication. The model adopted is similar to SEIQR, with the infected patients split into groups of asymptomatic subjects and isolated ones. This distinction is particularly important in the current pandemic, due to the fundamental the role of asymptomatic subjects in the virus diffusion. The influence of the control actions is considered in analysing the model, from the calculus of the equilibrium points to the determination of the reproduction number. This choice is motivated by the fact that the available organised data have been collected since from the end of February 2020, and almost simultaneously containment measures, increasing in typology and effectiveness, have been applied. The characteristics of COVID-19, not fully understood yet, suggest an asymmetric diffusion among countries and among categories of subjects. Referring to the Italian situation, the containment measures, as applied by the population, have been identified, showing their relation with the government's decisions; this allows the study of possible scenarios, comparing the impact of different possible choices.

scholarly journals Non-pharmaceutical interventions and inoculation rate shape SARS-COV-2 vaccination campaign success

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Galanti ◽  
Sen Pei ◽  
Teresa K. Yamana ◽  
Frederick J. Angulo ◽  
Apostolos Charos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Vaccine Administration ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Uptake Rates ◽  
One Year ◽  
Inference Methods ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractNearly one year into the COVID-19 pandemic, the first SARS-COV-2 vaccines received emergency use authorization and vaccination campaigns began. A number of factors can reduce the averted burden of cases and deaths due to vaccination. Here, we use a dynamic model, parametrized with Bayesian inference methods, to assess the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions, and vaccine administration and uptake rates on infections and deaths averted in the United States. We estimate that high compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions could avert more than 60% of infections and 70% of deaths during the period of vaccine administration, and that increasing the vaccination rate from 5 to 11 million people per week could increase the averted burden by more than one third. These findings underscore the importance of maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and increasing vaccine administration rates.

scholarly journals Discontinuous epidemic transition due to limited testing

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Scarselli ◽  
Nazmi Burak Budanur ◽  
Marc Timme ◽  
Björn Hof
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Growth Period ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Limited Testing ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractHigh impact epidemics constitute one of the largest threats humanity is facing in the 21st century. In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, physical distancing together with testing, contact tracing and quarantining are crucial in slowing down epidemic dynamics. Yet, here we show that if testing capacities are limited, containment may fail dramatically because such combined countermeasures drastically change the rules of the epidemic transition: Instead of continuous, the response to countermeasures becomes discontinuous. Rather than following the conventional exponential growth, the outbreak that is initially strongly suppressed eventually accelerates and scales faster than exponential during an explosive growth period. As a consequence, containment measures either suffice to stop the outbreak at low total case numbers or fail catastrophically if marginally too weak, thus implying large uncertainties in reliably estimating overall epidemic dynamics, both during initial phases and during second wave scenarios.

scholarly journals Using contact data to model the impact of contact tracing and physical distancing to control the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Kenya

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 212
Author(s):  
Moritz Wagner ◽  
Ivy K. Kombe ◽  
Moses Chapa Kiti ◽  
Rabia Aziza ◽  
Edwine Barasa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Process Model ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Short Delay ◽  
Household Contacts ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
General Physical ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Background: Across the African continent, other than South Africa, COVID-19 cases have remained relatively low. Nevertheless, in Kenya, despite early implementation of containment measures and restrictions, cases have consistently been increasing. Contact tracing forms one of the key strategies in Kenya, but may become infeasible as the caseload grows. Here we explore different contact tracing strategies by distinguishing between household and non-household contacts and how these may be combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions. Methods: We extend a previously developed branching process model for contact tracing to include realistic contact data from Kenya. Using the contact data, we generate a synthetic population of individuals and their contacts categorised by age and household membership. We simulate the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2 through this population and look at the effectiveness of a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions with a particular focus on different contact tracing strategies and the potential effort involved in these. Results: General physical distancing and avoiding large group gatherings combined with contact tracing, where all contacts are isolated immediately, can be effective in slowing down the outbreak, but were, under our base assumptions, not enough to control it without implementing extreme stay at home policies. Under optimistic assumptions with a highly overdispersed R0 and a short delay from symptom onset to isolation, control was possible with less stringent physical distancing and by isolating household contacts only. Conclusions: Without strong physical distancing measures, controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is difficult. With limited resources, physical distancing combined with the isolation of households of detected cases can form a moderately effective strategy, and control is possible under optimistic assumptions. More data are needed to understand transmission in Kenya, in particular by studying the settings that lead to larger transmission events, which may allow for more targeted responses, and collection of representative age-related contact data.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Vaccine Intention among Healthcare Workers in Saudi Arabia: A Cross-Sectional Survey

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 835
Author(s):  
Mohammed Noushad ◽  
Mohammad Zakaria Nassani ◽  
Anas B. Alsalhani ◽  
Pradeep Koppolu ◽  
Fayez Hussain Niazi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Healthcare System ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Public Health Strategies

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused largescale morbidity and mortality and a tremendous burden on the healthcare system. Healthcare workers (HCWs) require adequate protection to avoid onward transmission and minimize burden on the healthcare system. Moreover, HCWs can also influence the general public into accepting the COVID-19 vaccine. Therefore, determining COVID-19 vaccine intention among HCWs is of paramount importance to plan tailor-made public health strategies to maximize vaccine coverage. A structured questionnaire was administered in February and March 2021 among HCWs in Saudi Arabia using convenience sampling, proceeding the launch of the vaccination campaign. HCWs from all administrative regions of Saudi Arabia were included in the study. In total, 674 out of 1124 HCWs responded and completed the survey (response rate 59.9%). About 65 percent of the HCWs intended to get vaccinated. The intention to vaccinate was significantly higher among HCWs 50 years of age or older, Saudi nationals and those who followed the updates about COVID-19 vaccines (p < 0.05). The high percentage (26 percent) of those who were undecided in getting vaccinated is a positive sign. As the vaccination campaign gathers pace, the attitude is expected to change over time. Emphasis should be on planning healthcare strategies to convince the undecided HCWs into accepting the vaccine in order to achieve the coverage required to achieve herd immunity.

scholarly journals Investigations on historical monuments’ deterioration through chemical and isotopic analyses: an Italian case study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Ricciardi ◽  
Concetta Pironti ◽  
Oriana Motta ◽  
Rosa Fiorillo ◽  
Federica Camin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Potassium Nitrate ◽  
Sewage Water ◽  
X Ray Diffraction ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Historical Monuments ◽  
Isotopic Analyses ◽  
Historic Centre ◽  
The Church

AbstractIn this paper, we analysed the efflorescences present in the frescos of a monumental complex named S. Pietro a Corte situated in the historic centre of Salerno (Campania, Italy). The groundwater of the historic centre is fed by two important streams (the Rafastia and the Fusandola) that can be the sources of water penetration. The aims of this work are to (i) identify the stream that reaches the ancient frigidarium of S. Pietro a Corte and (ii) characterize the efflorescences on damaged frescos in terms of chemical nature and sources. In order to accomplish the first aim, the water of the Rafastia river (7 samples) and the water of the Fusandola river (7 samples) were analysed and compared with the water of a well of the Church (7 samples). The ionic chromatography measurements on the water samples allowed us to identify the Rafastia as the river that feeds the ancient frigidarium of S. Pietro a Corte. To investigate the nature and the origin of the efflorescences (our second aim), anionic chromatography analyses, X-ray diffraction measurements, and the isotopic determination of nitrogen were performed on the efflorescences (9 samples) and the salts recovered from the well (6 samples). Results of these analyses show that efflorescences are mainly made of potassium nitrate with a δ15N value of + 9.3 ± 0.2‰. Consequently, a plausible explanation for their formation could be the permeation of sewage water on the walls of the monumental complex.

scholarly journals Ensuring accountability in implementation of supplementary immunisation activities: A case study of the 2017/2018 measles vaccination campaign in Nigeria

Vaccine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenny Momoh ◽  
Avuwa Joseph Oteri ◽  
Fred Mogekwu ◽  
Nneka Onwu ◽  
Boubacar Dieng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Measles Vaccination

scholarly journals Uncovering two phases of early intercontinental COVID-19 transmission dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Yang ◽  
Juan Li ◽  
Shengjie Lai ◽  
Corrine W Ruktanonchai ◽  
Weijia Xing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phylogenetic Analyses ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Genetic Sequencing ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
The World ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Two Phases

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic has posed an ongoing global crisis, but how the virus spread across the world remains poorly understood. This is of vital importance for informing current and future pandemic response strategies. Methods We performed two independent analyses, travel network-based epidemiological modelling and Bayesian phylogeographic inference, to investigate the intercontinental spread of COVID-19. Results Both approaches revealed two distinct phases of COVID-19 spread by the end of March 2020. In the first phase, COVID-19 largely circulated in China during mid-to-late January 2020 and was interrupted by containment measures in China. In the second and predominant phase extending from late February to mid-March, unrestricted movements between countries outside of China facilitated intercontinental spread, with Europe as a major source. Phylogenetic analyses also revealed that the dominant strains circulating in the USA were introduced from Europe. However, stringent restrictions on international travel across the world since late March have substantially reduced intercontinental transmission. Conclusions Our analyses highlight that heterogeneities in international travel have shaped the spatiotemporal characteristics of the pandemic. Unrestricted travel caused a large number of COVID-19 exportations from Europe to other continents between late February and mid-March, which facilitated the COVID-19 pandemic. Targeted restrictions on international travel from countries with widespread community transmission, together with improved capacity in testing, genetic sequencing and contact tracing, can inform timely strategies for mitigating and containing ongoing and future waves of COVID-19 pandemic.

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