A new method to calculate the instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Hubei of China

Abstract The worst-hit area of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China was Wuhan City and its affiliated Hubei Province, where the outbreak has been well controlled. The case fatality rate (CFR) is the most direct indicator to evaluate the hazards of an infectious disease. However, most reported CFR on COVID-19 represent a large deviation from reality. We aimed to establish a more accurate way to estimate the CFR of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Hubei and compare it to the reality. The daily case notification data of COVID-19 from December 8, 2019, to May 1, 2020, in Wuhan and Hubei were collected from the bulletin of the Chinese authorities. The instant CFR of COVID-19 was calculated from the numbers of deaths and the number of cured cases, the two numbers occurred on the same estimated diagnosis dates. The instant CFR of COVID-19 was 1.3%-9.4% in Wuhan and 1.2%-7.4% in Hubei from January 1 to May 1, 2020. It has stabilized at 7.69% in Wuhan and 6.62% in Hubei since early April. The cure rate was between 90.1% and 98.8% and finally stabilized at 92.3% in Wuhan and stabilized at 93.5% in Hubei. The mortality rates were 34.5/100 000 in Wuhan and 7.61/100 000 in Hubei. In conclusion, this approach reveals a way to accurately calculate the CFR, which may provide a basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases.

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Estimation of instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Hubei based on daily case notification data

10.1101/2020.03.11.20034215 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Lei Cao ◽

Ting-ting Huang ◽

Jun-xia Zhang ◽

Qi Qin ◽

Si-yu Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Hubei Province ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Cure Rate ◽

Wuhan City ◽

Cure Time ◽

Notification Data ◽

Case Notification ◽

Instant Case

AbstractBackgroundThe outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) initially appeared and has most rapidly spread in Wuhan, China. The case fatality rate is the most direct indicator to assess the hazards of an infectious disease. We aimed to estimate the instant fatality rate and cure rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan City and its affiliated Hubei Province.MethodsWe collected the daily case notification data of COVID-19 from Dec 8, 2019 to Mar 10, 2020 in Wuhan City and Hubei Province officially announced by the Chinese authority. The numbers of daily confirmed/deaths/cured cases and the numbers of daily cumulative confirmed/deaths/cured cases were obtained. The death time and cure time of COVID-19 patients were calculated based on the dates of diagnosis, death and discharge of individual cases. Then the estimated diagnosis dates of deaths and cured cases were obtained on the basis of the median death or medium cure time, respectively. Finally, the instant fatality rate of COVID-19 was calculated according to the numbers of deaths and cured cases on the same estimated diagnosis dates.ResultsFrom Jan 1, 2020 to Feb 22, 2020 in Wuhan City, the instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 3.4%∼19.5% and the instant cured rate was 80.0%∼96.6%. The average fatality rate reached 11.4% while the average cure rate was 88.6%. During the same period in Hubei Province, the instant case fatality rate was 3.8%∼16.6% and the instant cured rate was 83.4%∼96.6%. The average fatality rate and the average cure rate were 9.2% and 91.8%, respectively.ConclusionsThe fatality rate and cure rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan City and Hubei Province were underestimated. Wuhan showed higher fatality rate and cure rate than the whole Hubei Province did.

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COVID-19 in Sudan

The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries ◽

10.3855/jidc.14520 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (02) ◽

pp. 204-208

Author(s):

Ayman Ahmed ◽

Nouh Saad Mohamed ◽

Sarah Misbah EL-Sadig ◽

Lamis Ahmed Fahal ◽

Ziad Bakri Abelrahim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Health Systems ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Control Measures ◽

Religious Practices ◽

Mass Gathering ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

High Case Fatality Rate ◽

The Government ◽

And Control

The steadily growing COVID-19 pandemic is challenging health systems worldwide including Sudan. In Sudan, the first COVID-19 case was reported on 13th March 2020, and up to 11 November 2020 there were 14,401 confirmed cases of which 9,535 cases recovered and the rest 3,750 cases were under treatment. Additionally, 1,116 deaths were reported, indicating a relatively high case fatality rate of 7.7%. Several preventive and control measures were implemented by the government of Sudan and health partners, including the partial lockdown of the country, promoting social distancing, and suspending mass gathering such as festivals and performing religious practices in groups. However, new cases still emerging every day and this could be attributed to the noncompliance of the individuals to the advocated preventive measurements.

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The Uncertainties Underlying Herd Immunity against COVID-19

10.20944/preprints202007.0159.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Farid Rahimi ◽

Amin Talebi Bezmin Abadi

Keyword(s):

Antiviral Therapy ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Herd Immunity ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Healthcare Systems ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Economic Implications ◽

Rate Transmission ◽

The Social ◽

And Control

Herd immunity happens when a relatively large proportion of a population becomes infected by an agent, subsequently recovers, and attains immunity against the same agent. That proportion thus indirectly protects the naïve population by preventing the spread of the infection. Herd immunity has been suggested to interrupt and control the COVID-19 pandemic. However, relying on establishing herd immunity can be catastrophic considering the virulence and lethality of SARS-CoV-2. Meanwhile our understanding of the pathogenesis, case-fatality rate, transmission routes, and antiviral therapy for COVID-19 remains limited now. Interrupting or slowing the COVID-19 transmission seems more opportune than vaccination, antiviral therapy, or herd immunity, all of which will take some time to yield. Thus, social distancing, face-masking, and hygiene are the most appropriate immediate countermeasures. Because the social fabrics, economic implications, and local demands of various nations are unique, early relaxation of restrictions may seem hasty particularly when fatality rates are high, or when the healthcare systems could be inadequate or become inundated. Conclusively, avoiding any overwhelmingly risky approach in fighting the pandemic is prudent.

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Policy Disparities in Fighting COVID-19 Among Japan, Italy, Singapore and China

10.21203/rs.3.rs-77509/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Xiaohan Wang ◽

Leiyu Shi ◽

Yuyao Zhang ◽

Haiqian Chen ◽

Gang Sun

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Epidemic Control ◽

Growth Trend ◽

Control Policies ◽

And Control

Abstract Objective This study systematically summarizes the COVID-19 prevention and control policies of Japan, Italy, China and Singapore in order to provide policy basis for other countries currently coping with the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods This study summarizes the epidemic prevention and control policies in Japan, Italy, China, and Singapore, and analyzes the effects of policies in the four countries using official statistics.Results As of May 27, 2020, the growth trend of new cases in Japan, Italy, China and Singapore has all stabilized. However, the cumulative number of confirmed cases (231139) and case-fatality rate (14.3%) in Italy far exceeded those in the other three countries, and the effect of epidemic control was inferior. Singapore began to experience a domestic resurgence after April 5, with a cumulative number of confirmed cases reaching 32876, but the case-fatality rate remained extremely low (0.1%). The growth of cumulative confirmed cases in China (84547) is almost stagnant, and the case-fatality rate is low (5.5%). The growth of cumulative confirmed cases in Japan (16661) increased slowly, and the case-fatality rate (4.8%) was slightly lower than that in China.Conclusion This study divides the epidemic prevention and control policies of the four countries into two categories: the blocking measures taken by China and Singapore, and the mitigation measures taken by Japan and Italy. According to the results of epidemic control in the four countries, we can conclude that the blocking measures are more effective. Pay attention to the admission of mild patients and cases tracking as the core strategy of blocking measures, which can be considered in countries all over the world.

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Impact of a multifaceted intervention to improve emergency care on newborn and child health outcomes in Rwanda

Health Policy and Planning ◽

10.1093/heapol/czab109 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Celestin Hategeka ◽

Larry D Lynd ◽

Cynthia Kenyon ◽

Lisine Tuyisenge ◽

Michael R Law

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Confidence Interval ◽

Hospital Mortality ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Paediatric Hospital ◽

Child Health Outcomes ◽

And Child Health

Abstract Implementing context-appropriate neonatal and paediatric advanced life support management interventions has increasingly been recommended as one of the approaches to reduce under-five mortality in resource-constrained settings like Rwanda. One such intervention is ETAT+, which stands for Emergency Triage, Assessment and Treatment plus Admission care for severely ill newborns and children. In 2013, ETAT+ was implemented in Rwandan district hospitals. We evaluated the impact of the ETAT+ intervention on newborn and child health outcomes. We used monthly time-series data from the DHIS2-enabled Rwanda Health Management Information System from 2012 to 2016 to examine neonatal and paediatric hospital mortality rates. Each hospital contributed data for 12 and 36 months before and after ETAT+ implementation, respectively. Using controlled interrupted time-series analysis and segmented regression model, we estimated longitudinal changes in neonatal and paediatric hospital mortality rates in intervention hospitals relative to matched concurrent control hospitals. We also studied changes in case fatality rate specifically for ETAT+-targeted conditions. Our study cohort consisted of 7 intervention hospitals and 14 matched control hospitals contributing 142 424 neonatal and paediatric hospital admissions. After controlling for secular trends and autocorrelations, we found that the ETAT+ implementation had no statistically significant impact on the rate of all-cause neonatal and paediatric hospital mortality in intervention hospitals relative to control hospitals. However, the case fatality rate for ETAT+-targeted neonatal conditions decreased immediately following implementation by 5% (95% confidence interval: −9.25, −0.77) and over time by 0.8% monthly (95% confidence interval: −1.36, −0.25) in intervention hospitals compared with control hospitals. Case fatality rate for ETAT+-targeted paediatric conditions did not decrease following the ETAT+ implementation. While ETAT+ focuses on improving the quality of hospital care for both newborns and children, we only found an impact on neonatal hospital mortality for ETAT+-targeted conditions that should be interpreted with caution given the relatively short pre-intervention period and potential regression to the mean.

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Egypt's COVID-19 Recent Happenings and Perspectives: A Mini-Review

Frontiers in Public Health ◽

10.3389/fpubh.2021.696082 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

AbdulRahman A. Saied ◽

Asmaa A. Metwally ◽

Norah Abdullah Bazekh Madkhali ◽

Shafiul Haque ◽

Kuldeep Dhama

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Animal Origin ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Health Concerns ◽

The World ◽

The Usa ◽

Egyptian Government ◽

Low Prevalence ◽

And Control

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has affected countries across the world. While the zoonotic aspects of SARS-CoV-2 are still under investigation, bats and pangolins are currently cited as the animal origin of the virus. Several types of vaccines against COVID-19 have been developed and are being used in vaccination drives across the world. A number of countries are experiencing second and third waves of the pandemic, which have claimed nearly four million lives out of the 180 million people infected globally as of June 2021. The emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants and mutants are posing high public health concerns owing to their rapid transmissibility, higher severity, and in some cases, ability to infect vaccinated people (vaccine breakthrough). Here in this mini-review, we specifically looked at the efforts and actions of the Egyptian government to slow down and control the spread of COVID-19. We also review the COVID-19 statistics in Egypt and the possible reasons behind the low prevalence and high case fatality rate (CFR%), comparing Egypt COVID-19 statistics with China (the epicenter of COVID-19 pandemic) and the USA, Brazil, India, Italy, and France (the first countries in which the numbers of patients infected with COVID-19). Additionally, we have summarized the SARS-CoV-2 variants, vaccines used in Egypt, and the use of medicinal plants as preventive and curative options.

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A Novel Approach to Calculate the Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in European countries

10.21203/rs.3.rs-42495/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Qi Qin ◽

Yong-xiao Cao ◽

Lei Cao

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

European Countries ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Global Epidemic ◽

Death Time ◽

Novel Approach ◽

The Difference ◽

And Control ◽

Case Data

Abstract As a result of the global epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), many European countries and regions have been strongly affected. The case fatality rate (CFR) is the most important index to evaluate the hazards associated with an epidemic situation. We aimed to present a method to calculate the instant CFR and to evaluate and compare the instant CFR of COVID-19 in the four European countries that have been most impacted: Italy, Spain, France and Germany. The daily COVID-19 case data from January 30, 2020, to July 9, 2020 in Italy, Spain, France and Germany were collected from WHO reports. Death time was calculated as the difference between the peak dates of the number of daily confirmed cases and the number of deaths in each of the four countries. The estimated dates of diagnosis of the declared deaths were a death time prior to the dates of death. The instant fatality rate of COVID-19 was calculated as the ratio of the number of cumulative deaths to the number of cumulative confirmed cases; these deaths and confirmed cases occurred on the same estimated dates of diagnosis. As of July 9, 2020, the COVID-19 death time was 6, 4, 6 and 12 days in Italy, Spain, France and Germany, respectively. The instant CFR of COVID-19 was 14.4%~27.6%, 2.2%~14.7%, 8.2%~25.0% and 2.0%~10.5% in Italy, Spain, France and Germany, respectively. The average CFR of COVID-19 was highest in France (16.7%) and lowest in Germany (5.0%). Since late April 2020, the CFR has stabilized at approximately 15%, 20% and 5% in Italy, France and Germany, respectively. Since early June, 2020, the CFR in Spain has stabilized at approximately 11%. We have established a more accurate way to calculate the CFR that may provide a basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases.

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Antibiotic Stewardship in Staphylococcus aureus Bloodstream Infection Treatment—Analysis Based on 29,747 Patients from One Hospital

Antibiotics ◽

10.3390/antibiotics9060338 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (6) ◽

pp. 338

Author(s):

Grzegorz Ziółkowski ◽

Iwona Pawłowska ◽

Estera Jachowicz ◽

Michał Stasiowski

Keyword(s):

Staphylococcus Aureus ◽

Incidence Rate ◽

Antibiotic Stewardship ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Bloodstream Infections ◽

Control Culture ◽

Inappropriate Drug ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

And Control

Some of the most serious healthcare-associated infections (HAI) are highly deadly bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by Staphylococcus aureus. The aim of the study was to analyse compliance of treatment practice with clinical guidelines in patients with S. aureus BSIs. The study was conducted at the Sosnowiec Hospital, Poland in 2019. During the study, 29,747 patients were hospitalized and 41 S. aureus BSIs (only HAIs) episodes were observed. According to local clinical practice guidelines, each case of BSI required blood cultures, echocardiography and control culture after the implementation of the targeted therapy. Incidence rate of S. aureus BSI was 0.8/1000 admissions; the greatest department admission rates were in the ICU (19.3/1000 admissions) and in the Nephrology Department (8.7/1000 admissions). Only 2 patients were treated following the protocol (4.8%); the most common errors were the use of an inappropriate drug or incorrect duration of antibiotic treatment. No patient underwent echocardiography, and control cultures were performed in 70% of cases. The case fatality rate was 7.3%. A satisfactorily low case fatality rate was found despite the poor antibiotic stewardship. Lack of discipline concerning antibiotic use can strongly impact the observed high drug resistance in HAIs and high Clostridioides difficile incidence rate in the studied hospital.

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Epidemiological philosophy of pandemics

International Journal of Community Medicine and Public Health ◽

10.18203/2394-6040.ijcmph20212574 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (7) ◽

pp. 3255

Author(s):

Tareef Fadhil Raham

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Positive Influence ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Regression Analyses ◽

Background Theory ◽

Very High ◽

Testing Coverage

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, clinicians have struggled to understand why case fatality rates vary among countries. The role of clusters of infections in COVID-19 severity is well known before, furthermore the case overload was attributed to increased COVID-19 mortality in certain locations. The background theory in this study was the already existing evidence that an increased viral load (density of infection) leads to more fatalities. The aim of this study was to find the correlation between high number of cases and high mortality (MR) in different countries and to find the correlation of MR with case fatality rate (CFR).Methods: We chose thirty-one countries with testing coverage levels of >400,0000 tests/M and populations greater than 1 million inhabitants. We used ANOVA regression analyses to test the associations.Results: There was a very highly significant correlation between MR and the total number of cases/million population inhabitants (M) (p=0.0000). The CRF changed with a change in the MR. A very high positive influence of the COVID-19 MR on the CFR (p= 0.0000).Conclusions: Increased number of cases per million inhabitants is associated with increased MR. Increased MR is associated with increased CFR. These findings explain variable mortality rates in relation to CFR and to the number of cases/M. This evidence gives us an idea of the behavior of epidemics in general. This will help in the development of infection control policies.

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Estimating the cure rate and case fatality rate of the ongoing epidemic COVID-19

10.1101/2020.02.18.20024513 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ying Diao ◽

Xiaoyun Liu ◽

Tao Wang ◽

Xiaofei Zeng ◽

Chen Dong ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

The Novel ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Cure Rate ◽

Public Event ◽

Case Fatality Ratio ◽

Novel Coronavirus

AbstractThe epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus COVID-19 in Wuhan at the end of 2019 has become an urgent public event of worldwide concern. However, due to the changing data of the epidemic, there is no scientific estimate of the cure rate and case fatality rate of the epidemic. This study proposes a method to estimate the cure rate and case fatality rate of COVID-19. The ratio of cumulative discharges on a given day to the sum of cumulative discharges on a given day and cumulative deaths before j days is used to estimate the cure rate. Moreover, the case fatality ratio can also be estimated. After simulation calculations, j is statistically appropriate when it is 8-10, and it is also clinically appropriate. When j is 9, based on the available data, it is inferred that the cure rate of this epidemic is about 93% and the case fatality rate is about 7%. This method of estimating the cure rate can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatment in different medical schemes and different regions, and has great value and significance for decision-making in the epidemic.

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