Is Viral Load a Prognostic Indicator for Outcome of Covid-19 Patients? A Prospective Cohort Study in Iran
Abstract Background: Covid-19 has different clinical symptoms and severity. Predicting its progress and results is clinically important. Hence, in this study, we investigated the relationship between virus load and the outcomes in Golestan Province. Methodology: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of COVID-19 diagnosed with RT-PCR testing from May 2020 to December 2020. According to the severity of the disease, the study groups were divided into three groups: outpatient, inpatient, and inpatient with death. SARS-CoV-2 viral load was assessed using cycle threshold (Ct) values from a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction assay applied to nasopharyngeal swab samples. Demographic properties, Clinical characteristics, and CT values of the studied patients were compared. Data were analyzed using STATA Version 16.0 software.Results: Of 1318 included subjects, 599 were outpatient, and 719 were hospitalized. Of the hospitalized patients, 487 were recovered and 232 died. The mean age (year) of patients was 48.81±18.40 and 51.9% were female. There were significant differences between the age and the severity of the disease, the mean age of patients who died was higher than other patients (p<0.001). The mean CT value of all patients was 26.80±4.43, which was higher in outpatients than inpatients' cases (p <0.001). We did not find any significant differences for the Ct values between recovered and dead cases (p=0.66). CT value levels were not significantly different between age and sex groups. Conclusions: According to the results of the study, CT value can be used only as a factor to determine the severity of the disease at the time of admission, but the load of the virus is not a factor to predict the outcome.