scholarly journals The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: A comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayo Stephen Adebowale ◽  
Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe ◽  
Joshua Odunayo Akinyemi ◽  
Olalekan K Obisesan ◽  
Emmanuel J Awosanya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
Study Objective ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Exponential Growth Model ◽  
Strict Compliance ◽  
Spread Pattern ◽  
Cubic Polynomial

Abstract Background: COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particular in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak. Methods: Data was extracted from the World Bank’s website. A descriptive analysis was conducted as well as modelling of COVID-19 spread from day one through day 120 in Nigeria and seven other countries. Model fitting was conducted using linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential regression methods (α=0.05). Results: The COVID-19 spread pattern in Nigeria was similar to the patterns in Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun. The daily death distribution in Nigeria was similar to those of six out of the seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2=0.728, p<0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2=0.625, p<0.001) after the lockdown was relaxed. The cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases across all the countries investigated and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, the predicted number of cases in Nigeria at 3-month (30 September 2020) was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p<0.001), all things being equal. Conclusions: Improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is attained.

scholarly journals The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: a comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayo Stephen Adebowale ◽  
Adeniyi F. Fagbamigbe ◽  
Joshua O. Akinyemi ◽  
Olalekan K. Obisesan ◽  
Emmanuel J. Awosanya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
Study Objective ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Exponential Growth Model ◽  
Strict Compliance ◽  
Spread Pattern ◽  
Cubic Polynomial

Abstract Background COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak. Methods Data was extracted from the World Bank’s website. A descriptive analysis was conducted as well as modelling of COVID-19 spread from day one through day 120 in Nigeria and seven other countries. Model fitting was conducted using linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential regression methods (α=0.05). Results The COVID-19 spread pattern in Nigeria was similar to the patterns in Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun. The daily death distribution in Nigeria was similar to those of six out of the seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2=0.728, p< 0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2=0.625, p< 0.001) after the lockdown was relaxed. The cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases across all the countries investigated and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, the predicted number of cases in Nigeria at 3-month (30 September 2020) was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p< 0.001), all things being equal. Conclusions Improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is attained.

scholarly journals Comparing with other countries the spread of COVID-19 within the first 120 days of its outbreak in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayo Stephen Adebowale ◽  
Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe ◽  
Joshua Odunayo Akinyemi ◽  
Olalekan K Obisesan ◽  
Emmanuel J Awosanya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
Exponential Growth Model ◽  
Strict Compliance ◽  
Cubic Polynomial ◽  
Exponential Methods ◽  
Best Fit

Abstract Background: COVID-19 is an emerging global public health crisis. The increase in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria is worrisome vis-a-vis its large and dense population. This study aims at assessing the first 120 days of COVID-19 case confirmation in Nigeria.Methods: Data extracted from the World Bank’s website were used for the descriptive assessment and modelling of COVID-19 disease using the first 120 days of the index case in Nigeria and seven other countries. Linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential methods of regression model were used to fit the data (α=0.05).Results: The COVID-19 growth pattern in Nigeria was similar to that of Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun; Nigeria COVID-19's daily death distribution was comparable to six of the other seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate of COVID-19 in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2=0.728, p<0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2=0.625, p<0.001) after the lockdown’s relaxation. Across all the countries investigated, the cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, all things being equal, a 3-month (30 September 2020) prediction of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p<0.001).Conclusions: An improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is realised.

scholarly journals The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: A comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayo Stephen Adebowale ◽  
Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe ◽  
Joshua Odunayo Akinyemi ◽  
Olalekan K Obisesan ◽  
Emmanuel J Awosanya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
Exponential Growth Model ◽  
Strict Compliance ◽  
Cubic Polynomial ◽  
Exponential Methods ◽  
Best Fit

Abstract Background: COVID-19 is an emerging global public health crisis. The increase in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria is worrisome vis-a-vis its large and dense population. This study aims at assessing the pattern of spread in the first 120 days of COVID-19 case confirmation in Nigeria, and its comparison with seven other countries. Methods: Data extracted from the World Bank’s website were used for the descriptive assessment and modelling of COVID-19 disease using the first 120 days of the index case in Nigeria and seven other countries. Linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential methods of regression model were used to fit the data (α=0.05). Results: The COVID-19 growth pattern in Nigeria was similar to that of Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun; Nigeria COVID-19's daily death distribution was comparable to six of the other seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate of COVID-19 in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2=0.728, p<0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2=0.625, p<0.001) after the lockdown’s relaxation. Across all the countries investigated, the cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, all things being equal, a 3-month (30 September 2020) prediction of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p<0.001). Conclusions: An improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is realised.

scholarly journals The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: A comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayo Stephen Adebowale ◽  
Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe ◽  
Joshua Odunayo Akinyemi ◽  
Olalekan K Obisesan ◽  
Emmanuel J Awosanya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
Exponential Growth Model ◽  
Strict Compliance ◽  
Cubic Polynomial ◽  
Exponential Methods ◽  
Best Fit

Abstract Background: COVID-19 is an emerging global public health crisis. The increase in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria is worrisome vis-a-vis its large and dense population. This study aims at assessing the pattern of spread in the first 120 days of COVID-19 case confirmation in Nigeria, and its comparison with seven other countries. Methods: Data extracted from the World Bank’s website were used for the descriptive assessment and modelling of COVID-19 disease using the first 120 days of the index case in Nigeria and seven other countries. Linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential methods of regression model were used to fit the data (α=0.05). Results: The COVID-19 growth pattern in Nigeria was similar to that of Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun; Nigeria’s COVID-19 daily death distribution was comparable to six of the other seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate of COVID-19 in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2=0.728, p<0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2=0.625, p<0.001) after the lockdown relaxation. Across all the countries investigated, the cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, all things being equal, a 3-month (30 September 2020) prediction of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p<0.001). Conclusions: An improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is realised.

scholarly journals ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (06) ◽  
pp. 705-709
Author(s):  
Muhammad Imran ◽  
Jamal Abdul Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Curve Fitting ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Road Accident ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Road Traffic Accidents ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
Fatal Accident ◽  
Exponential Growth Model

Objective: To determine the trend of road traffic accidents (RTAs) and forecastingtheir incidence is an emerging to take safety measures so that general public health relatedmorbidity and mortality can be minimized. Setting: The data for present study has been takenfrom Pakistan bureau of statistics (statistics House). Period: January 2002-2003 to December2011-2012. Methods: A set of eleven curve fitting models namely linear, quadratic, cubic,logarithmic, inverse, exponential growth model, logistics-curve ,and compound models werecarried out for prediction. Results: Under the descriptive analysis, the annual average numberof fatal and non-fatal accidents is 43.3% and 56.7% respectively. In provinces Punjab contributesto a high rate of total number of accidents, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Baluchistanplaced second, third and fourth respectively. Under the curve fitting estimation, the cubicmodel was selected for predicting the annual traffic road accident for all categories i.e.(i) Total Number of Accident (ii) Fatal Accident (iii) Non-Fatal Accident (iv) Killed People(v) Injured People and (vi) The Number of Vehicle Involved. Rising trend in all categoriesare expected in Pakistan. Conclusions: The traffic road accident is expected to rise in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Healthcare Workers Infection Rate in the Era of Coronavirus Disease 2019 - in Tertiary Teaching Hospital

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (A) ◽  
pp. 651-658
Author(s):  
Mona Mohiedden ◽  
Aml M. Said ◽  
Ahmed M. Ali ◽  
Mohammed M. Abdel Razik ◽  
Maha Ali Gad
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
University Hospitals ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Tertiary Teaching ◽  
Potential Risk Factors

BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at the frontline defense against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. AIM: The study aimed to describe the characteristics and appraise potential risk factors of COVID-19 transmission among HCWs who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in one of Cairo University Hospitals. METHOD: Cross-sectional descriptive analysis of confirmed polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive versus negative cases for COVID-19. RESULTS: Through March–June 2020, (145/846; 17%) suspected HCWs were tested for COVID-19 by PCR; out of them (70/145; 48.3%) were confirmed as positive, these positive cases represented (70/846; 8.3%) of all HCWs of the hospital. About 33% of confirmed COVID-19 positive HCWs acquired the infection from the healthcare while only (13/70; 19%) from community settings, and no clear exposure data were identified in (34/70; 48%) of cases. Most of symptomatic cases showed a positive PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 versus asymptomatic cases, p < 0.001. There was no statistical significance regarding gender, age, presence of comorbidity, workload or the type of acquisition. CONCLUSION: HCWs are at an increased risk of COVID-19 infection at the workplace. Strict implementation of infection control measures is of crucial role in preventing transmission of COVID-19 infection in health-care settings.

A retrospective overview of Journal of Enterprise Information Management using bibliometric analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Naveen Donthu ◽  
Gaurav Kumar Badhotiya ◽  
Satish Kumar ◽  
Gunjan Soni ◽  
Nitesh Pandey
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
Information Management ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Enterprise Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Manufacturing Resource Planning ◽  
Manufacturing Resource ◽  
The Impact

PurposeJournal of Enterprise Information Management (JEIM) is a leading journal that publishes studies on applied information management relevant to industry personals, academicians and researchers. This study uses bibliometric tools to present a retrospective analysis of the journal's outcomes.Design/methodology/approachThe authors applied bibliometric tools for analysing the impact, topic coverage, renowned authors with affiliation, citation, methodology and analysis of the JEIM corpus. Additionally, they used bibliographic coupling to develop a graphical visualisation and analyse the journal's thematic evolution.FindingsWith 16 yearly articles, JEIM contributed 656 research articles on various themes. The major themes that have come to define the JEIM over this time include information and systems, supply chain management, manufacturing resource planning, communication technologies and small- to medium-sized enterprises. Empirical methodology, quantitative techniques with descriptive analysis and regression methods are the most preferred. The article's primary research purpose shows the majority of theory-verifying articles. Co-authorship analysis reveals that the single-author trend is decreasing and the journal now has articles with international collaborations.Originality/valueThis study is the retrospective analysis of the JEIM, which is useful for aspiring contributors and the journal's editors.

Wealth and unintended pregnancy in Ghana: Analysis of 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jones Arkoh Paintsil ◽  
Edward Kwabena Ameyaw
Keyword(s):  
Unintended Pregnancy ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
Wealth Quintile ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Wealth Status ◽  
Unintended Pregnancies ◽  
Binary Logistic Model

Abstract Background: Pregnancy intention is a critical factor for both short and long term maternal and 27 child health outcomes. Some evidence show that wealth status has varying implications on 28 unintended pregnancy. In this study, we investigated wealth and unintended pregnancy among 29 women of reproductive age in Ghana. 30Methods: Our descriptive analysis comprised calculation of wealth status and unintended 31 pregnancy. The same calculation was done for socio-demographic characteristics and 32 unintended pregnancy. Due to the binary nature of the outcome variable (unintended 33 pregnancy), Binary Logistic Model was used for the inferential analysis. The first model 34 (Model I), constituted wealth quintile and unintended pregnancy. The second model (Model II) 35 was developed by adjusting for five key socio-demographic variables. 36Results: Women in the richest wealth quintile had less likelihood of experiencing unintended 37 pregnancy (OR=0.740, CI=0.42-1.28). Considering women aged 15-19 as the reference 38 category, women in all other age categories had less likelihood of unintended pregnancy 39 especially those aged 45-49 (AOR=0.26, CI=0.04-1.58). The findings revealed that those who 40 listened to radio at least once a week (AOR=0.56, CI=0.36-0.89) were less probable to report 41 unintended pregnancy, having those not listening to radio at all as the reference category. 42 Women in urban settings were less likely to have unintended pregnancies (AOR=0.74, 43 CI=0.46-1.19). 44Conclusions: This study has indicated that unintended pregnancy to larger extent is poverty 45 driven. The study suggests that the mass media, particularly radio, is valuable in 46 communicating birth control measures and messages on unintended pregnancies. Efforts to 47 halt unintended pregnancies must target poor women, especially those in the rural locations.

scholarly journals Exploring the Mechanisms of the Spatiotemporal Invasion of Tuta absoluta in Asia

Agriculture ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ritter A. Guimapi ◽  
Ramasamy Srinivasan ◽  
Henri E. Tonnang ◽  
Paola Sotelo-Cardona ◽  
Samira A. Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Initial Point ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Tuta Absoluta ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Spread Pattern ◽  
People Movement ◽  
Not At Risk

International crop exchange always brings the risk of introducing pests to countries where they are not yet present. The invasive pest Tuta absoluta (Meyrick 1917), after taking just a decade (2008–2017) to invade the entire Africa continent, is now continuing its expansion in Asia. From its first detection in Turkey (2009), the pest has extended its range of invasion at a very high speed of progression to the southeast part of Asia. This study adopted the cellular automata modelling method used to successfully predict the spatiotemporal invasion of T. absoluta in Africa to find out if the invasive pest is propagating with a similar pattern of spread in Asia. Using land cover vegetation, temperature, relative humidity and the natural flight ability of Tuta absoluta, we simulated the spread pattern considering Turkey as the initial point in Asia. The model revealed that it would take about 20 years for the pest to reach the southeast part of Asia, unlike real life where it took just about 10 years (2009–2018). This can be explained by international crop trade, especially in tomatoes, and movement of people, suggesting that recommendations and advice from the previous invasion in Europe and Africa were not implemented or not seriously taken into account. Moreover, some countries like Taiwan and the Philippines with suitable environmental condition for the establishment of T. absoluta are not at risk of natural invasion by flight, but quarantine measure must be put in place to avoid invasion by crop transportation or people movement. The results can assist policy makers to better understand the different mechanisms of invasion of T. absoluta in Asia, and therefore adjust or adapt control measures that fit well with the dynamic of the invasive pest observed.

Summary of 11 Years of Enteric Outbreak Investigations and Criteria To Initiate an Investigation, Province of Quebec, 2002 through 2012

2014 ◽  
Vol 77 (9) ◽  
pp. 1563-1570 ◽  
Author(s):  
COLETTE GAULIN ◽  
ANDREA CURRIE ◽  
GENEVIÈVE GRAVEL ◽  
MEGHAN HAMEL ◽  
MARIE-ANDREE LEBLANC ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Primary Control ◽  
Enteric Disease ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Outbreak Investigations

This article presents a retrospective analysis of enteric disease outbreak investigations led by or conducted in collaboration with provincial health authorities in the Province of Quebec from 2002 through 2012. Objectives were to characterize enteric disease outbreaks, quantify and describe those for which a source was identified (including the control measures implemented), identify factors that contributed to or impeded identification of the source, and recommend areas for improvement in outbreak investigations (including establishment of criteria to initiate investigations). A descriptive analysis of enteric disease outbreak summaries recorded in a provincial database since 2002 was conducted, and corresponding outbreak reports were reviewed. Among 61 enteric disease outbreaks investigated, primary pathogens involved were Salmonella (46%), Escherichia coli O157:H7 (25%), and Listeria monocytogenes (13%). Sources were identified for 37 (61%) of 61 of the outbreaks, and descriptive studies were sufficient to identify the source for 26 (70%) of these. During the descriptive phase of the investigation, the causes of 21 (81%) of 26 outbreaks were identified by promptly collecting samples of suspected foods based on case interviews. Causes of outbreaks were more likely to be detected by weekly surveillance or alert systems (odds ratio = 6.0, P = 0.04) than by serotyping or molecular typing surveillance and were more likely to be associated with a common event or location (odds ratio = 11.0, P = 0.023). Among the 37 outbreaks for which causes were identified, 24 (65%) were associated with contaminated food, and recalls were the primary control measure implemented (54%). Review of enteric outbreaks investigated at the provincial level in Québec has increased the province's ability to quantify success and identify factors that can promote success. Multiple criteria should be taken into account to identify case clusters that are more likely to be resolved.

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