scholarly journals Winter Wheat Yield Prediction Using Convolutional Neural Networks from Environmental and Phenological Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amit Kumar Srivast ◽  
Nima Safaei ◽  
Saeed Khaki ◽  
Gina Lopez ◽  
Wenzhi Zeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Yield Prediction ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Winter Wheat Yield ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Abstract Crop yield forecasting depends on many interactive factors including crop genotype, weather, soil, and management practices. This study analyzes the performance of machine learning and deep learning methods for winter wheat yield prediction using extensive datasets of weather, soil, and crop phenology. We propose a convolutional neural network (CNN) which uses the 1-dimentional convolution operation to capture the time dependencies of environmental variables. The proposed CNN, evaluated along with other machine learning models for winter wheat yield prediction in Germany, outperformed all other models tested. To address the seasonality, weekly features were used that explicitly take soil moisture and meteorological events into account. Our results indicated that nonlinear models such as deep learning models and XGboost are more effective in finding the functional relationship between the crop yield and input data compared to linear models and deep neural networks had a higher prediction accuracy than XGboost. One of the main limitations of machine learning models is their black box property. Therefore, we moved beyond prediction and performed feature selection, as it provides key results towards explaining yield prediction (variable importance by time). As such, our study indicates which variables have the most significant effect on winter wheat yield.

scholarly journals Prediction of Winter Wheat Yield Based on Multi-Source Data and Machine Learning in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jichong Han ◽  
Zhao Zhang ◽  
Juan Cao ◽  
Yuchuan Luo ◽  
Liangliang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Growth Period ◽  
Yield Prediction ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Source Data ◽  
Winter Wheat Yield

Wheat is one of the main crops in China, and crop yield prediction is important for regional trade and national food security. There are increasing concerns with respect to how to integrate multi-source data and employ machine learning techniques to establish a simple, timely, and accurate crop yield prediction model at an administrative unit. Many previous studies were mainly focused on the whole crop growth period through expensive manual surveys, remote sensing, or climate data. However, the effect of selecting different time window on yield prediction was still unknown. Thus, we separated the whole growth period into four time windows and assessed their corresponding predictive ability by taking the major winter wheat production regions of China as an example in the study. Firstly we developed a modeling framework to integrate climate data, remote sensing data and soil data to predict winter wheat yield based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The results show that the models can accurately predict yield 1~2 months before the harvesting dates at the county level in China with an R2 > 0.75 and yield error less than 10%. Support vector machine (SVM), Gaussian process regression (GPR), and random forest (RF) represent the top three best methods for predicting yields among the eight typical machine learning models tested in this study. In addition, we also found that different agricultural zones and temporal training settings affect prediction accuracy. The three models perform better as more winter wheat growing season information becomes available. Our findings highlight a potentially powerful tool to predict yield using multiple-source data and machine learning in other regions and for crops.

Train Deep Learning Models using subsurface geological images datasets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramy Abdallah ◽  
Clare E. Bond ◽  
Robert W.H. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Convolutional Neural Networks ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Structural Interpretation ◽  
Performance Accuracy ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Machine Learning Models

<p>Machine learning is being presented as a new solution for a wide range of geoscience problems. Primarily machine learning has been used for 3D seismic data processing, seismic facies analysis and well log data correlation. The rapid development in technology with open-source artificial intelligence libraries and the accessibility of affordable computer graphics processing units (GPU) makes the application of machine learning in geosciences increasingly tractable. However, the application of artificial intelligence in structural interpretation workflows of subsurface datasets is still ambiguous. This study aims to use machine learning techniques to classify images of folds and fold-thrust structures. Here we show that convolutional neural networks (CNNs) as supervised deep learning techniques provide excellent algorithms to discriminate between geological image datasets. Four different datasets of images have been used to train and test the machine learning models. These four datasets are a seismic character dataset with five classes (faults, folds, salt, flat layers and basement), folds types with three classes (buckle, chevron and conjugate), fault types with three classes (normal, reverse and thrust) and fold-thrust geometries with three classes (fault bend fold, fault propagation fold and detachment fold). These image datasets are used to investigate three machine learning models. One Feedforward linear neural network model and two convolutional neural networks models (Convolution 2d layer transforms sequential model and Residual block model (ResNet with 9, 34, and 50 layers)). Validation and testing datasets forms a critical part of testing the model’s performance accuracy. The ResNet model records the highest performance accuracy score, of the machine learning models tested. Our CNN image classification model analysis provides a framework for applying machine learning to increase structural interpretation efficiency, and shows that CNN classification models can be applied effectively to geoscience problems. The study provides a starting point to apply unsupervised machine learning approaches to sub-surface structural interpretation workflows.</p>

P1923Deep and machine learning models to improve risk prediction of cardiovascular disease using data extraction from electronic health records

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
I Korsakov ◽  
A Gusev ◽  
T Kuznetsova ◽  
D Gavrilov ◽  
R Novitskiy
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Electronic Health ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Abstract Abstract Background Advances in precision medicine will require an increasingly individualized prognostic evaluation of patients in order to provide the patient with appropriate therapy. The traditional statistical methods of predictive modeling, such as SCORE, PROCAM, and Framingham, according to the European guidelines for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, not adapted for all patients and require significant human involvement in the selection of predictive variables, transformation and imputation of variables. In ROC-analysis for prediction of significant cardiovascular disease (CVD), the areas under the curve for Framingham: 0.62–0.72, for SCORE: 0.66–0.73 and for PROCAM: 0.60–0.69. To improve it, we apply for approaches to predict a CVD event rely on conventional risk factors by machine learning and deep learning models to 10-year CVD event prediction by using longitudinal electronic health record (EHR). Methods For machine learning, we applied logistic regression (LR) and recurrent neural networks with long short-term memory (LSTM) units as a deep learning algorithm. We extract from longitudinal EHR the following features: demographic, vital signs, diagnoses (ICD-10-cm: I21-I22.9: I61-I63.9) and medication. The problem in this step, that near 80 percent of clinical information in EHR is “unstructured” and contains errors and typos. Missing data are important for the correct training process using by deep learning & machine learning algorithm. The study cohort included patients between the ages of 21 to 75 with a dynamic observation window. In total, we got 31517 individuals in the dataset, but only 3652 individuals have all features or missing features values can be easy to impute. Among these 3652 individuals, 29.4% has a CVD, mean age 49.4 years, 68,2% female. Evaluation We randomly divided the dataset into a training and a test set with an 80/20 split. The LR was implemented with Python Scikit-Learn and the LSTM model was implemented with Keras using Tensorflow as the backend. Results We applied machine learning and deep learning models using the same features as traditional risk scale and longitudinal EHR features for CVD prediction, respectively. Machine learning model (LR) achieved an AUROC of 0.74–0.76 and deep learning (LSTM) 0.75–0.76. By using features from EHR logistic regression and deep learning models improved the AUROC to 0.78–0.79. Conclusion The machine learning models outperformed a traditional clinically-used predictive model for CVD risk prediction (i.e. SCORE, PROCAM, and Framingham equations). This approach was used to create a clinical decision support system (CDSS). It uses both traditional risk scales and models based on neural networks. Especially important is the fact that the system can calculate the risks of cardiovascular disease automatically and recalculate immediately after adding new information to the EHR. The results are delivered to the user's personal account.

scholarly journals Winter Wheat Yield Prediction at County Level and Uncertainty Analysis in Main Wheat-Producing Regions of China with Deep Learning Approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1744 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinlei Wang ◽  
Jianxi Huang ◽  
Quanlong Feng ◽  
Dongqin Yin
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Yield Prediction ◽  
County Level ◽  
Winter Wheat Yield

Timely and accurate forecasting of crop yields is crucial to food security and sustainable development in the agricultural sector. However, winter wheat yield estimation and forecasting on a regional scale still remains challenging. In this study, we established a two-branch deep learning model to predict winter wheat yield in the main producing regions of China at the county level. The first branch of the model was constructed based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with inputs from meteorological and remote sensing data. Another branch was constructed using Convolution Neural Networks (CNN) to model static soil features. The model was then trained using the detrended statistical yield data during 1982 to 2015 and evaluated by leave-one-year-out-validation. The evaluation results showed a promising performance of the model with the overall R 2 and RMSE of 0.77 and 721 kg/ha, respectively. We further conducted yield prediction and uncertainty analysis based on the two-branch model and obtained the forecast accuracy in one month prior to harvest of 0.75 and 732 kg/ha. Results also showed that while yield detrending could potentially introduce higher uncertainty, it had the advantage of improving the model performance in yield prediction.

414 Deep Neural Networks: A Survey Tool for Obstructive Sleep Apnea Prediction

SLEEP ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 44 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. A164-A164
Author(s):  
Pahnwat Taweesedt ◽  
JungYoon Kim ◽  
Jaehyun Park ◽  
Jangwoon Park ◽  
Munish Sharma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Obstructive Sleep Apnea ◽  
Sleep Apnea ◽  
Deep Neural Networks ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Obstructive Sleep ◽  
Screening Questionnaires ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Abstract Introduction Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common sleep-related breathing disorder with an estimation of one billion people. Full-night polysomnography is considered the gold standard for OSA diagnosis. However, it is time-consuming, expensive and is not readily available in many parts of the world. Many screening questionnaires and scores have been proposed for OSA prediction with high sensitivity and low specificity. The present study is intended to develop models with various machine learning techniques to predict the severity of OSA by incorporating features from multiple questionnaires. Methods Subjects who underwent full-night polysomnography in Torr sleep center, Texas and completed 5 OSA screening questionnaires/scores were included. OSA was diagnosed by using Apnea-Hypopnea Index ≥ 5. We trained five different machine learning models including Deep Neural Networks with the scaled principal component analysis (DNN-PCA), Random Forest (RF), Adaptive Boosting classifier (ABC), and K-Nearest Neighbors classifier (KNC) and Support Vector Machine Classifier (SVMC). Training:Testing subject ratio of 65:35 was used. All features including demographic data, body measurement, snoring and sleepiness history were obtained from 5 OSA screening questionnaires/scores (STOP-BANG questionnaires, Berlin questionnaires, NoSAS score, NAMES score and No-Apnea score). Performance parametrics were used to compare between machine learning models. Results Of 180 subjects, 51.5 % of subjects were male with mean (SD) age of 53.6 (15.1). One hundred and nineteen subjects were diagnosed with OSA. Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC) of DNN-PCA, RF, ABC, KNC, SVMC, STOP-BANG questionnaire, Berlin questionnaire, NoSAS score, NAMES score, and No-Apnea score were 0.85, 0.68, 0.52, 0.74, 0.75, 0.61, 0.63, 0,61, 0.58 and 0,58 respectively. DNN-PCA showed the highest AUROC with sensitivity of 0.79, specificity of 0.67, positive-predictivity of 0.93, F1 score of 0.86, and accuracy of 0.77. Conclusion Our result showed that DNN-PCA outperforms OSA screening questionnaires, scores and other machine learning models. Support (if any):

scholarly journals Machine Learning-Based Malicious X.509 Certificates’ Detection

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2164
Author(s):  
Jiaxin Li ◽  
Zhaoxin Zhang ◽  
Changyong Guo
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Ensemble Learning ◽  
Traffic Analysis ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Detection Model ◽  
Analysis Tools ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
Machine Learning Models

X.509 certificates play an important role in encrypting the transmission of data on both sides under HTTPS. With the popularization of X.509 certificates, more and more criminals leverage certificates to prevent their communications from being exposed by malicious traffic analysis tools. Phishing sites and malware are good examples. Those X.509 certificates found in phishing sites or malware are called malicious X.509 certificates. This paper applies different machine learning models, including classical machine learning models, ensemble learning models, and deep learning models, to distinguish between malicious certificates and benign certificates with Verification for Extraction (VFE). The VFE is a system we design and implement for obtaining plentiful characteristics of certificates. The result shows that ensemble learning models are the most stable and efficient models with an average accuracy of 95.9%, which outperforms many previous works. In addition, we obtain an SVM-based detection model with an accuracy of 98.2%, which is the highest accuracy. The outcome indicates the VFE is capable of capturing essential and crucial characteristics of malicious X.509 certificates.

scholarly journals A Physics-Infused Deep Learning Model for the Prediction of Refractive Indices and Its Use for the Large-Scale Screening of Organic Compound Space

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mojtaba Haghighatlari ◽  
Gaurav Vishwakarma ◽  
Mohammad Atif Faiz Afzal ◽  
Johannes Hachmann
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Organic Molecules ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Refractive Indices ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Deep Learning Model ◽  
Machine Learning Models

<div><div><div><p>We present a multitask, physics-infused deep learning model to accurately and efficiently predict refractive indices (RIs) of organic molecules, and we apply it to a library of 1.5 million compounds. We show that it outperforms earlier machine learning models by a significant margin, and that incorporating known physics into data-derived models provides valuable guardrails. Using a transfer learning approach, we augment the model to reproduce results consistent with higher-level computational chemistry training data, but with a considerably reduced number of corresponding calculations. Prediction errors of machine learning models are typically smallest for commonly observed target property values, consistent with the distribution of the training data. However, since our goal is to identify candidates with unusually large RI values, we propose a strategy to boost the performance of our model in the remoter areas of the RI distribution: We bias the model with respect to the under-represented classes of molecules that have values in the high-RI regime. By adopting a metric popular in web search engines, we evaluate our effectiveness in ranking top candidates. We confirm that the models developed in this study can reliably predict the RIs of the top 1,000 compounds, and are thus able to capture their ranking. We believe that this is the first study to develop a data-derived model that ensures the reliability of RI predictions by model augmentation in the extrapolation region on such a large scale. These results underscore the tremendous potential of machine learning in facilitating molecular (hyper)screening approaches on a massive scale and in accelerating the discovery of new compounds and materials, such as organic molecules with high-RI for applications in opto-electronics.</p></div></div></div>

scholarly journals A Novel Method for Performance Measurement of Public Educational Institutions Using Machine Learning Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 9296
Author(s):  
Talha Mahboob Alam ◽  
Mubbashar Mushtaq ◽  
Kamran Shaukat ◽  
Ibrahim A. Hameed ◽  
Muhammad Umer Sarwar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Key Performance Indicators ◽  
Educational Institutions ◽  
Institutional Performance ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Lack of education is a major concern in underdeveloped countries because it leads to poor human and economic development. The level of education in public institutions varies across all regions around the globe. Current disparities in access to education worldwide are mostly due to systemic regional differences and the distribution of resources. Previous research focused on evaluating students’ academic performance, but less has been done to measure the performance of educational institutions. Key performance indicators for the evaluation of institutional performance differ from student performance indicators. There is a dire need to evaluate educational institutions’ performance based on their disparities and academic results on a large scale. This study proposes a model to measure institutional performance based on key performance indicators through data mining techniques. Various feature selection methods were used to extract the key performance indicators. Several machine learning models, namely, J48 decision tree, support vector machines, random forest, rotation forest, and artificial neural networks were employed to build an efficient model. The results of the study were based on different factors, i.e., the number of schools in a specific region, teachers, school locations, enrolment, and availability of necessary facilities that contribute to school performance. It was also observed that urban regions performed well compared to rural regions due to the improved availability of educational facilities and resources. The results showed that artificial neural networks outperformed other models and achieved an accuracy of 82.9% when the relief-F based feature selection method was used. This study will help support efforts in governance for performance monitoring, policy formulation, target-setting, evaluation, and reform to address the issues and challenges in education worldwide.

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