scholarly journals Current Account Determinants in Jordan: An ARDL Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malak Samih Abu-Murad
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Sector Performance ◽  
External Sector ◽  
New Evidence

Abstract As one of the major indicators of assessing the external sector performance of any country, this paper empirically investigates the determinants of current account for Jordan. To this end, I rely on the estimation of a time series Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model over the period 1994-2020. Consistent with the literature, I show that the fiscal deficit, trade openness, oil prices and the reserve changes are key determinants of the current account of Jordan. The relationships exposed in this paper complement the empirical literature by providing new evidence from a developing country like Jordan.

Do Macroeconomic Variables affect Stock Returns in BRICS Markets? An ARDL Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanita Tripathi ◽  
Arnav Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
The Relationship

The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) propounded by Ross in 1976 argued for a variety of macroeconomic variables (sources of systematic risk) in explaining stock returns. In the same vein, this paper examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables (GDP, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, and oil prices) and aggregate stock returns in BRICS markets over the period 1995-2014 using quarterly data. We have applied Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to document such a relationship for individual countries as well as for panel data.

scholarly journals Consequences of Capital formation, Trade Liberalization on the Economic Growth: Pakistan’s Experience

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Nadia Bukhari ◽  
Anjum Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Adf Test

This study considers the long run relationship between the liberalization of trade, capital formation and the economic growth of Pakistan by using the time series data from 1975-2013. The main aim of this study is to examine that how much liberalization of trade and capital formation affects the economic growth of Pakistan in long run. The approach that has been used for empirical analysis is Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Under the ADF test capital formation (CF) is stationary at its first level but the trade openness (TO) and GDP is stationary at its first difference. Moreover, the granger casualty test is evident that there become a casual relationship between the trade openness and GDP. The result of this study shows that both the trade openness and the capital formation determined the economic growth in long run and they both have statistically significant effect on the GDP. Furthermore it has has been depicted from the study that the trade has a vital role to influence the economic growth.

scholarly journals TRADE OPENNESS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN NIGERIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 52-62
Author(s):  
Philip Nwosa ◽  
Sunday Keji ◽  
Samuel Adegboyo ◽  
Oluwadamilola Fasina
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Significant Determinant ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Foreign Private Investment ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Employment Generation ◽  
The Relationship

This study examines the relationship between trade openness and unemployment rate in Nigeria from 1980 to 2018. The study utilized the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique and the result of the study shows that trade openness had negative and significant impact on unemployment rate in Nigeria. The implication of this result is that trade openness provides employment opportunities, which reduces the unemployment rate in Nigeria. Thus, the study concludes that trade openness is a significant determinant of unemployment in Nigeria. The study recommends the need for conscious economic policies that would promote foreign private investment, capable of enhancing aggregate volume of investment in the country and contribute to employment generation in the Nigeria. Finally, government needs to explore new marketing areas for foreign investors which would also contribute to employment generation.

Factors Determining Gold Prices in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-82
Author(s):  
Anis Mat Dalam ◽  
Noorhaslinda Kulub Abd Rashid ◽  
Jaharudin Padli
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Gold Reserve

Gold is a valuable asset to a country because of its liquidity. Gold reserve can stabilize the currency in a country. The objective of this paper is to identify the factors contributing to the volatility of gold prices, such as Real Malaysia GDP, inflation rates, crude oil prices and exchange rates. The data was analysed using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with time series data, with 30-year coverage from 1987 to 2016. Findings showed that only Real Malaysia GDP and crude oil prices were significantly related to gold prices. As a conclusion, this study can be used as reference by other investors. The author suggests to other researchers to further improve upon this study by adding more variables or diversifying the variables that relate to volatility of gold prices.

scholarly journals Impact of Trade Openness on Industrialization in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Adebayo Mohammed Ojuolape ◽  
Deborah Boluwatife Adeniyi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
The State ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Industrial Competitiveness ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Analytical Result

The state of Nigeria as regards the effect of trade openness on industrialization is a major concern. This research helps to evaluate this effect. The variables show a long-run relationship, using Bound Cointegration test. The final analytical result was gotten using ARDL (Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag) Co-integration and Long-run form. The results show that trade openness is not significant, and it is negatively related to industrialization. The implication of this is that it hinders industrialization in Nigeria. This is due to excess importation and infrastructure deficit, alongside other factors. The study recommended that existing policies should not be waved aside; there should be engagement in international industrial competitiveness, and stabilization of exchange rate.

scholarly journals The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on the Dynamic Relationship between Current Account and Exchange Rate: Evidence from D-8 Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (4I) ◽  
pp. 537-556
Author(s):  
Syeda Qurat-Ul-Ain ◽  
Saira Tufail
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
External Sector ◽  
The Relationship

The effect of oil price shocks on global economy has been a great concern since 1970s and has instigated a great deal of research investigating macroeconomic consequences of oil price fluctuations. Later on, the instability in the Middle East and recent oil price hike confirmed the enduring significance of the issue. Though a voluminous body of literature has evolved examining the bearings of oil prices for internal sectors of economies [to name a few, e.g., Barsky and Kilian (2004); Kilian (2008a,b); Hamilton (2008)], the studies analysing the external sector response to oil price shocks are very few [see, e.g. Kilian, et al. (2007)]. The determination of current account and exchange rate—the two major indicators of external sector—has been studied widely in theoretical and empirical literature but mostly the discussion of the two variables largely remained separate [Lee and Chinn (1998)]. Similarly, investigation of simultaneous response of these two variables to an oil price shock remained relatively less ventured avenue of research. Initial work done on the relationship between current account and oil price could not ascertain conclusive link between these two variables.1 Recent work on the issue revealed the diversity of responses of current account of different countries to an oil price shock. For instance, oil price increase deteriorates current account balance of developing countries [OECD (2004); Rebucci and Spatafora (2006); Killian, et al. (2007)] but may improve it if the country happens to be a net oil-exporter. This implies that the relationship depends on the number of factors among which oil dependency of country, oil-intensity of production process2 and responses of non-oil trade balance3 and sources of oil price fluctuations4are of particular significance.

scholarly journals The Use of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Method in Investigating The Impact of Interest Rate on Foreign Direct Investment in Yemen for the Period 1990-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (123) ◽  
pp. 145-157
Author(s):  
Saif Sallam Alhakimi
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact

 Foreign direct investment has seen increasing interest worldwide, especially in developing economies. However, statistics have shown that Yemen received fluctuating FDI inflows during the period under study. Against this background, this research seeks to determine the relationship and impact of interest rates on FDI flows. The study also found other determinants that greatly affected FDI inflows in Yemen for the period 1990-2018. Study data collected from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund databases. It also ensured that the time series were made balanced and interconnected, and then the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag method used in the analysis. The results showed that the interest rates and inflation rate harmed FDI flows and, therefore, could not be used for policymaking purposes. The research also discovered that GDP growth and trade openness are the main determinants of foreign direct investment in Yemen. Trade openness policies should be encouraged, and GDP growth facilitated if the economy is to achieve long-term FDI flows. Purpose –The purpose of the paper is to discover the impact of interest rate on foreign direct investment with a combination of the exchange rate, inflation, gross domestic product, and trade openness. Design/methodology/approach – The paper implements the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-Bounds testing approach to analyze maintaining the time series properties in terms of stationarity. Findings – The results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium between the Foreign Direct Investment and the explanatory variables. Furthermore, the significant factors influencing, positively, FDI in Yemen are Growth domestic product, Exchange rate, and Trade openness. In contrast, both the Interest rate and Inflation rate have a substantial negative impact on Foreign Direct Investment. Practical implications – Policymakers in Yemen advised reconsidering many of the general state policies, including investment policies, financial and administrative governance, and monetary policy that focuses on maintaining an adequate interest rate and reduce the rate of inflation. Originality/value – As for the case of Yemen, this the first study empirically explores the impact of interest rate and the foreign direct investment using the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag method aiming for more reliable results.

Does Nominal Devaluation Improve Income Distribution? Evidence from Bangladesh

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-77
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Mohammad Mafizur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact

The article aims to investigate the impact of nominal devaluation on income distribution in Bangladesh both in short and long runs. In doing so, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing has been employed for cointegration, and Error Correction Model (ECM) has been used for short-run dynamics. The empirical psychology has confirmed the existence of long-run relationship between the variables. Furthermore our estimated results reveal that nominal devaluation tends to decrease income inequality. Though economic growth appears to improve income distribution, non-linear link between both the variables, however, depicts Kuznets’ inverted-U curve (1955). Financial development causes further deterioration in income distribution. Trade openness contributes to income inequality as discussed in Leontief Paradox.

scholarly journals External Sector and The Nigerian Manufacturing Sector Performance, 1981-2019

2022 ◽  
Vol 05 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leera Kpagih ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Environment Impact ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Sector Performance ◽  
External Sector ◽  
Exchange Rate Level

No country is an island. The globalization phenomenon is making all countries to be interdependent. The external sector environment has become critical for the success of every country and internal balance. Thus, it has become important to examine how much the externa sector environment impact on the performance of the domestic economy. The present study, therefore, examined the influence of Nigerian external sector environment on the performance of the Nigerian manufacturing sector between 1981 and 2019. The study adopted exp-post research design approach and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimation techniques. The empirical model consists of the Nigerian manufacturing sector output index as the dependent variable and exchange rate, trade openness, and foreign direct investment as independent variables and external sector environment variables. Test of unit root results indicated that the variables have mix order of integration, while the co integration analysis results indicated that the variables in the model have stable long run relationship. Estimate of the ARDL model reveals that in the short run exchange rate variations have negative, but significant effect on manufacturing sector performance, while trade openness, and FDI have positive but insignificant influence on the manufacturing sector performance in the short run. In the long run, exchange rate level and FDI inflows have positive and significant effect on the manufacturing sector performance, while trade openness has negative and significant effect on the Nigerian manufacturing sector performance. The study therefore conclude that the Nigerian external sector Environment has significant influence on the performance of the Nigerian manufacturing sector.

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