Do Macroeconomic Variables affect Stock Returns in BRICS Markets? An ARDL Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanita Tripathi ◽  
Arnav Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
The Relationship

The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) propounded by Ross in 1976 argued for a variety of macroeconomic variables (sources of systematic risk) in explaining stock returns. In the same vein, this paper examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables (GDP, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, and oil prices) and aggregate stock returns in BRICS markets over the period 1995-2014 using quarterly data. We have applied Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to document such a relationship for individual countries as well as for panel data.

scholarly journals Relationship Between Selected Macroeconomic Variables and the Financial Performance of Investment Banks in Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 102
Author(s):  
Mungiria James Baariu ◽  
Njuguna Peter
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Investment Banks ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
Equity Investments ◽  
Classical Economic ◽  
The Relationship

Currently, investment banks in Kenya are facing a lot of challenges due to persistence losses. However, the available studies are inadequate to aid investment banks in overcoming these challenges in Kenya due to mixed findings, resulting in rising uncertainty on equity investments’ performance, leading to massive losses among investment banks.  This study, therefore, sought to model the relationship between inflation, GDP, interest rates, exchange rates, and financial performance of investment banks. Arbitrage pricing theory, Modern portfolio theory as well as classical economic theory (flow-oriented model) was used. A causal research design was adopted. The study found that inflation has negative significant influence on financial performance of equity investments among investment banks in Kenya. Also, GDP has positive and significant influence on financial performance of equity investments among investment banks in Kenya. Interest rate was also found to have negative and significant influence on financial performance of equity investments among investment banks in Kenya. In addition, exchange rate has negative significant influence on financial performance of equity investments among investment banks in Kenya. The study therefore recommends any investor including financial investors to methodically analyze inflation trends and understand how it affects the company’s financial performance. Investors must also be in a position to predict the future concerning inflation changes.

Loss of Employment, Lockdown Measures and Government Responses in Malaysia during the Covid-19 Pandemic: A Note

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 1525-1549
Author(s):  
Muzafar Shah Habibullah ◽  
Mohd Yusof Saari ◽  
Sugiharso Safuan ◽  
Badariah Haji Din ◽  
Anuar Shah Bali Mahomed
Keyword(s):  
Job Loss ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Stimulus Package

In this paper, we use daily administrative data from January 25, 2020 to December 31, 2020 to examine the relationship between job losses and the Malaysian lockdown measures. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is used to estimate both the long-run and short-run models. The results of the Bounds F-test for cointegration reveal that there is a long-run link between job losses and the Malaysian government lockdown measures (both linear and non-linear). The positive association between job loss and lockdown measures shows that as the lockdown gets tighter, more people will lose their jobs. However, as time passes, especially in conjunction with the government stimulus package programmes, job losses decrease.

scholarly journals Relationship Between Selected Macroeconomic Variables and the Financial Performance of Investment Banks in Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 98
Author(s):  
Mungiria James Baariu ◽  
Njuguna Peter
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Investment Banks ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
Equity Investments ◽  
Classical Economic ◽  
The Relationship

Currently, investment banks in Kenya are facing a lot of challenges due to persistence losses. However, the available studies are inadequate to aid investment banks in overcoming these challenges in Kenya due to mixed findings, resulting in rising uncertainty on equity investments’ performance, leading to massive losses among investment banks.  This study, therefore, sought to model the relationship between inflation, GDP, interest rates, exchange rates, and financial performance of investment banks. Arbitrage pricing theory, Modern portfolio theory as well as classical economic theory (flow-oriented model) was used. A causal research design was adopted. The study found that inflation has negative significant influence on financial performance of equity investments among investment banks in Kenya. Also, GDP has positive and significant influence on financial performance of equity investments among investment banks in Kenya. Interest rate was also found to have negative and significant influence on financial performance of equity investments among investment banks in Kenya. In addition, exchange rate has negative significant influence on financial performance of equity investments among investment banks in Kenya. The study therefore recommends any investor including financial investors to methodically analyze inflation trends and understand how it affects the company’s financial performance. Investors must also be in a position to predict the future concerning inflation changes.

scholarly journals Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Approach of Financial Intermediation of Commercial Banks and Risk in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 246-264
Author(s):  
Dr. IYO Ipeghan ◽  
Dr. EKPETE Marshall Simon ◽  
EKPETE Kinsley Simon
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Financial Intermediation ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Relationship

This study empirically examines the relationship between financial intermediation of commercial banks and risk in Nigeria spanning from 2007-2019 and utilizing the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration and Granger causality analysis. The result of the ARDL bounds test reveals a stable long run relationship between the dependent and independent variables with greater bound value of 16.02. The ARDL results also reveal the presence of short and long run positive and significant relationship between loans and advances and risk factors. The finding of the Granger causality reveals bidirectional causality between loans and advances and risk factors. The study recommends that commercial banks should continue their short term lending of credit for investment as default has been drastically reduced in lending to customers.

scholarly journals Current Account Determinants in Jordan: An ARDL Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malak Samih Abu-Murad
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Sector Performance ◽  
External Sector ◽  
New Evidence

Abstract As one of the major indicators of assessing the external sector performance of any country, this paper empirically investigates the determinants of current account for Jordan. To this end, I rely on the estimation of a time series Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model over the period 1994-2020. Consistent with the literature, I show that the fiscal deficit, trade openness, oil prices and the reserve changes are key determinants of the current account of Jordan. The relationships exposed in this paper complement the empirical literature by providing new evidence from a developing country like Jordan.

scholarly journals TRADE OPENNESS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN NIGERIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 52-62
Author(s):  
Philip Nwosa ◽  
Sunday Keji ◽  
Samuel Adegboyo ◽  
Oluwadamilola Fasina
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Significant Determinant ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Foreign Private Investment ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Employment Generation ◽  
The Relationship

This study examines the relationship between trade openness and unemployment rate in Nigeria from 1980 to 2018. The study utilized the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique and the result of the study shows that trade openness had negative and significant impact on unemployment rate in Nigeria. The implication of this result is that trade openness provides employment opportunities, which reduces the unemployment rate in Nigeria. Thus, the study concludes that trade openness is a significant determinant of unemployment in Nigeria. The study recommends the need for conscious economic policies that would promote foreign private investment, capable of enhancing aggregate volume of investment in the country and contribute to employment generation in the Nigeria. Finally, government needs to explore new marketing areas for foreign investors which would also contribute to employment generation.

scholarly journals Valuation of Government Bonds: the Exchange Rate Is an Important Aspect

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (6) ◽  
pp. 1911-1916
Author(s):  
Blanka Francová
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing Theory ◽  
Arbitrage Pricing ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
Multi Linear Regression ◽  
The Relationship

Interest rates are currently very low in the countries. In these countries bonds are issued with low or negative yields. In this paper, I empirically investigate the factors that affect the price of bonds. I follow international arbitrage pricing theory to determine the relationship between factors and the price of bonds. The international arbitrage pricing theory applies a multi‑linear regression model. The regression model is used for emerging markets and developing markets separately. I have a unique data set of 46 countries. The main data are the monthly returns on government bonds in the period 2010–2015. Exchange risk influences the bond prices. Currency movements can bring further yield for investors.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Factors and Equity Prices: An Empirical Investigation by Using ARDL Approach

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (4II) ◽  
pp. 501-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arshad Hasan ◽  
Zafar Mueen Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between macroeconomic variables and the equity prices has attracted the curiosity of academicians and practitioners since the publication of seminal paper of Chen, et al. (1986). Many empirical studies those tested the relationship reveal that asset pricing theories do not properly identify macroeconomic factors that influence equity prices [Roll and Ross (1980); Fama (1981); Chen, et al. (1986); Hamao (1986); Faff (1988); Chen (1991); Maysami and Koh (2000) and Paul and Mallik (2001)]. In most of these studies, variable selection and empirical analyses is based on economic rationale, financial theory and investors’ intuition. These studies generally apply Eagle and Granger (1987) procedure or Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) approach in Vector Auto Regressor (VAR) Framework. In Pakistan, Fazal (2006) and Nishat (2001) explored the relationship between macroeconomic factors and equity prices by using Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) procedure. The present study tests the relationship between macroeconomic variables such as inflation, industrial production, oil prices, short term interest rate, exchange rates, foreign portfolio investment, money supply and equity prices by using Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1996, 2001). The ARDL approach in an errorcorrection setting has been widely applied to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on economic growth but it is strongly underutilised in the capital market filament of literature. This methodology has a number of advantages over the other models. First, determining the order of integration of macroeconomic factors and equity market returns is not an important issue here because the Pesaran ARDL approach yields consistent estimates of the long-run coefficients that are asymptotically normal irrespective of whether the underlying regressors are I(0) or I(1) and of the extent of cointegration. Secondly, the ARDL approach allows exploring correct dynamic structure while many econometric procedures do not allow to clearly distinguish between long run and short run relationships.

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