scholarly journals Oil price risk in the Eurozone: a sectoral analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 108-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olfa Belhassine ◽  
Amira Ben Bouzid
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Additional Risk Factor ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Relationship

This study investigates how oil price movements impact the main Eurozone industry supersectors returns. We use a multifactor market model in which we incorporate oil price changes as an additional risk factor. In order to account for possible breaks in the relationship, we use the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) breakpoints identification methodology. We find evidence of the presence of structural instabilities on the relationship between sector stock returns and oil price changes. Different breakpoints are identified, particularly the 2003 Iraq invasion year, the 2008 subprime crisis and the 2012 Euro debt crisis. Moreover, our results prove that stock return sensitivities to oil prices are time varying and sector dependent. Besides, the subprime financial crisis appears to induce a significantly positive effect on the oil-stock market nexus. However, the Euro debt crisis has a mostly negative effect. The other identified breakpoints do not seem to have any significant effect on the oil stock market nexus.

The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Industry Stock Returns: Evidence from International Markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Elias Randjbaran ◽  
Reza Tahmoorespour ◽  
Marjan Rezvani ◽  
Meysam Safari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Food And Beverage ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of oil price variation on 14 industries in six markets, including Canada, China, France, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Panel weekly data were collected from June 1998 to December 2011. The results indicate that price fluctuations primarily affect the Oil and Gas as well as the Mining industries and have the least influence on the Food and Beverage industry. Furthermore, in three out of six of these countries (Canada, France, and the U.K.), oil price changes negatively affect the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industry. One possible reason for the negative relationship between oil price changes and the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industries in the above-mentioned countries is that the governments of these countries fund their healthcare systems. Portfolio managers and investors will find the results of this study useful because it enables adjusting portfolios based on knowledge of the industries that are impacted the most or the least by oil price fluctuations.

Financial Constraints, Stock Returns and R&D in Indian Stock Market

2021 ◽  
pp. 097226292098839
Author(s):  
Pankaj Sinha ◽  
Priya Sawaliya
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Constraints ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Common Shocks ◽  
External Finance ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Security Returns ◽  
Indian Stock Market

When the accessibility of external finance prohibits a firm from taking the optimum decision related to investment, that firm is called financially constrained. By applying the methodology of Kaplan and Zingales (1997) and Lamont et al. (2001), the current study has created a construct to gauge the level of financial constraints (FC) of the companies which emanate from quantitative information. The study explores whether FC factor is present in the Indian stock market and explores whether the security returns of those firms that are financially constrained move in tandem. The study also attempts to establish the association between security returns and R&D of financially constrained firms. On a sample of 63 R&D reporting companies of S&P BSE 500, traded over the period March 2008 to February 2019, the study used the Fama–French methodology, fixed effect model and the ordered logistic regression. The study finds that firms that are highly constrained earn more returns than low constrained firms. Second, the security returns of firms that are financially constrained move in tandem because these firms are affected by common shocks. This suggests that the FC factor exists in the Indian stock market. Finally, when R&D interacts with the level of FC, then this interaction effect has a negative effect on returns.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Reactions of China’s Stock Market to Short-Term Interest Rates

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Fang ◽  
Weijia Dong ◽  
Xin Lv
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
Bull Market ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Markov Regime Switching Model

This paper investigates how China’s stock market reacts to short-term interest rates, as represented by the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor). We adopt the Markov Regime Switching model to divide China’s stock market into Medium, Bull and Bear market; and then examine how Shibor influences market returns and risk in different market regimes. We find that short-term interest rates have a significant negative effect on stock returns in Medium and Bull market, but could not affect stock returns in Bear market. In addition, different maturities of Shibor have different effects on stock returns. Furthermore, we find that the short-term interest rates have a negative effect on market risk in Bull market, but a positive effect in Bear market. Our findings show that China’s market is quite peculiar and distinctive from the U.S. market or other developed countries’ markets in many ways.

scholarly journals Oil price effect on sectoral stock returns: A conditional covariance and correlation approach for Mexico

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Rodrigo A. Morales Fernández Rafaelly ◽  
Roberto J. Santillán-Salgado
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Effect ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Original Contribution ◽  
Bivariate Garch Model ◽  
The Relationship

This paper analyzes the relationship between the volatility of oil price and selected sectoral stock returns in Mexico (industrials, materials, financials and consumer discretionary) by implementing a Diagonal VECH-type bivariate GARCH model in order to estimate conditional covariances and correlations. The econometric results suggest that there exists a statistically significant relationship between sector indices, as well as between Mexico’s aggregate stock exchange returns, and variations in oil prices. Conditional correlations suggest that during most of the analyzed period, the relationship between oil price fluctuations and sectoral stock returns is positive. The recommendation, supported by these results, is that investors should take into consideration the interaction between the analyzed variables in order to generate more robust risk-hedge strategies. An important limitation for this work is information availability at sector level in the country. The original contribution of this paper lies mainly in the analysis of the influence of oil prices over sectoral indices of the Mexican Stock Exchange. These results provide more support to the current that suggests that a price increase in oil has a direct spillover effect on stock market performance.

scholarly journals The Nexus between Stock Returns of Oil Companies and Oil Price Fluctuations after Heavy Oil Upgrading: Toward Theoretical Progress

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sedighi ◽  
Mohammadi ◽  
Fard ◽  
Sedighi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Investment Policies ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Petroleum Companies

This study attempts to discover the nexus between crude oil price fluctuation after heavy oil upgrading and stock returns of petroleum companies in the U.S. Stock Exchange for the years 2008 to 2018. One of the methods of upgrading heavy crude oil is to extract asphaltene from crude oil. Considering the Asphaltene Removal (AR) as a factor in the nexus between oil price and the stock market is an innovation in the literature of energy finance. Asphaltenes cause many problems in the petroleum industry, which increases the cost of oil production and reduces the financial efficiency of oil companies. The AR is certainly one of the significant matters of the oil industry and can affect the price of oil. Therefore, changes in the price of oil can influence the price of oil company stocks. Hence, changes in stock prices will certainly affect the stock returns of oil companies. In an effort to solve this puzzle, the four financial models were employed to explore the nexus between oil price fluctuations and stock returns. The analysis of the results demonstrated that the oil price fluctuations caused by the removal of asphaltenes influence the stock returns of petroleum companies. Eventually, the theoretical hypothesis was confirmed by considering the USA as a case study. The outcomes of this investigation are a theoretical progression in areas related to the petroleum industry and the stock market that could lead to the adoption of new investment policies in the petroleum industry including investing in new procedures to manage and decrease the costs and time of the AR process, which would result in the advancement of petroleum companies. In fact, we have introduced a modern investment strategy in the oil industry aimed at reducing oil production costs, improving financial statements and increasing the stock returns of petroleum companies. Eventually, we will present new investment policies in the oil industry that can lead to economic growth and development of financial markets especially stock market, derivatives market, futures exchange, commodities exchange, as well as bond market.

scholarly journals Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from the Vietnamese Stock Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dzung Phan Tran Trung ◽  
Hung Pham Quang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Ratio Test ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Variance Ratio ◽  
Variance Ratio Test ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to test the adaptive market hypothesis in the two main Vietnamese stock exchanges, namely Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HSX) and Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), by measuring the relationship between current stock returns and historical stock returns. In particular, the tests employed are the automatic variance ratio test (“AVR”), the automatic portmanteau test (“AP”), the generalized spectral test (“GS”), and the time-varying autoregressive (TV-AR) approach. The empirical results validate the adaptive market hypothesis in the Vietnamese stock market. Furthermore, the results suggest that the evolution of HSX has served as an important factor of the adaptive market hypothesis.

scholarly journals The Linkage between Sentiments and Stock Market Dynamics New Evidence from Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Heshmatollah Asgari ◽  
Hamed Najafi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Screening Method ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Research Criteria ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In recent years, the issue of financial behaviour and the impact of investors’ sentiments on their decision making have become such a popular issue. The sentiments of financial activists affect the market price of financial assets and particularly stocks, and therefore it is included in the new pricing models of capital assets. In this article, we seek the effect of investors’ sentiments on the dynamics of the Iranian stock market (TSE). To do this, among the companies accepted in the stock market we select 120, considering the research criteria and screening method, we examined TSE specifics throughout 2010-2018 using regression analysis and causality test. Our results show that firstly investors’ sentiments have a direct effect on the stock returns and there is a bilateral relationship between them. Secondly, inflation has the opposite effect and economic growth has a direct and positive effect on the relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns. Finally, government spending has no significant effect on the relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns.

An Examination of the Relationship between Volatility and Expected Returns in the BRVM Stock Market

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 7-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Godwin Olasehinde-Williams
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
West African ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Financial theory suggests that volatility affects average stock returns positively. It is claimed that markets reward economic agents for the risk they assume with higher returns. This study uses an ARMA (1, 2)-GARCH (1, 1)-M technique to examine the impact of volatility on BRVM stock returns in the integrated regional West African stock market. A positive but insignificant relationship was found between volatility and stock returns. The study concludes that there is no significant feedback from volatility to average returns in the stock market. Our findings indicate that investors are not compensated for taking risks in the regional stock market.

The Effect of Short Sale Ban on the Relation between Disagreement and Stock Returns

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Sik Kim ◽  
Sung Won Seo
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
The Other ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
Short Sale Constraints ◽  
Short Sale ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Relationship

This paper investigates the effect of the short sale ban by the Korean government on the relationship between the disagreement among investors and the future stock returns. Short selling in Korean stock market was banned twice in 2008 and 2011. The short sale ban provides a natural experiment environment to study the effect of the short sale constraints on the relationship between the disagreement among investors and the future stock returns. Furthermore, it is an exogenous shock in the point of individual stocks. Thus, this paper focus on short sale ban periods to analyzes the stock return predictability of the disagreement among investors’ opinions about analysts’ earnings forecasts. Main results of this paper are as follows: First, the portfolio within the top 30% of the disagreement among investors experiences the significantly higher returns than that within the bottom 30% of the disagreement only during short sale ban periods. However, the two portfolio returns are not significantly different during the other periods excluding the short sale ban periods. These results are robust even after controlling for firm sizes, boot to market ratios, and the momentum effects. Second, a portfolio with higher the disagreement among investors presents significantly positive abnormal returns estimated by Fama-French’s three factor model during short sale ban periods. On the other hand, the abnormal returns of the portfolio with lower the disagreement among investors are not significantly different from zero. Furthermore, those returns of the portfolio with lower disagreement are not affected by the short sale ban. Finally, our findings show that individual stock returns are positively related to disagreement after controlling for the characteristics of individual stocks. Consequentially, the stocks with higher disagreement are overvalued during the short sale ban periods according to our robust empirical analyses with various control variables. According to our findings, we conclude that the short sale constraints are important factors to determine the predictability of disagreement on future stock returns. These are consistent with the results of short sale ban on the U.S. stock market from Autore, Billingsley, and Kovacs (2011).

scholarly journals The Primary Origin of the Financial Crisis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aloui Mouna ◽  
Jarboui Anis
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Independent Directors ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Outside Directors ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Primary Origin ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between the stock return volatility, outside directors, independent directors, and variable control using simultaneous-equation panel data models for a panel of 89 France-listed companies on the SBF 120 over the period of 2006–2012. Our results showed that the outside directors (FD) and audit size increase the stock return volatility. Furthermore, the results indicate that the independent directors and ROA have a negative effect on the stock return volatility; this result indicates that these variables contribute to decrease and stabilize the stock return volatility. This study employs a variety of econometric models, including feedback, to test the robustness of our empirical results. Also, we examine the relationship between the corporate governance and the stock returns volatility, exchange rate, and treasury bill using GARCH-BEKK model for a panel of 99 French firms over the period of 2006–2013.

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