scholarly journals Reservoir operation based on evolutionary algorithms and multi-criteria decision-making under climate change and uncertainty

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 332-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Ehteram ◽  
Sayed Farhad Mousavi ◽  
Hojat Karami ◽  
Saeed Farzin ◽  
Vijay P. Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Evolutionary Algorithms ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
High Reliability ◽  
Bat Algorithm ◽  
Particle Swarm Algorithm ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Change Models ◽  
The Future

Abstract This study investigated reservoir operation under climate change for a base period (1981–2000) and future period (2011–2030). Different climate change models, based on A2 scenario, were used and the HAD-CM3 model, considering uncertainty, among other climate change models was found to be the best model. For the Dez basin in Iran, considered as a case study, the climate change models predicted increasing temperature from 1.16 to 2.5°C and decreasing precipitation for the future period. Also, runoff volume for the basin would decrease and irrigation demand for the downstream consumption would increase for the future period. A hybrid framework (optimization-climate change) was used for reservoir operation and the bat algorithm was used for minimization of irrigation deficit. A genetic algorithm and a particle swarm algorithm were selected for comparison with the bat algorithm. The reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability indices, based on a multi-criteria model, were used to select the base method for reservoir operation. Results showed the volume of water to be released for the future period, based on all evolutionary algorithms used, was less than for the base period, and the bat algorithm with high-reliability index and low vulnerability index performed better among other evolutionary algorithms.

scholarly journals Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1191-1205 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Schaefli ◽  
B. Hingray ◽  
A. Musy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
System Performance ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
Modelling Uncertainties ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Potential Climate Change

Abstract. This paper addresses two major challenges in climate change impact analysis on water resources systems: (i) incorporation of a large range of potential climate change scenarios and (ii) quantification of related modelling uncertainties. The methodology of climate change impact modelling is developed and illustrated through application to a hydropower plant in the Swiss Alps that uses the discharge of a highly glacierised catchment. The potential climate change impacts are analysed in terms of system performance for the control period (1961–1990) and for the future period (2070–2099) under a range of climate change scenarios. The system performance is simulated through a set of four model types, including the production of regional climate change scenarios based on global-mean warming scenarios, the corresponding discharge model, the model of glacier surface evolution and the hydropower management model. The modelling uncertainties inherent in each model type are characterised and quantified separately. The overall modelling uncertainty is simulated through Monte Carlo simulations of the system behaviour for the control and the future period. The results obtained for both periods lead to the conclusion that potential climate change has a statistically significant negative impact on the system performance.

scholarly journals Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Lotfirad ◽  
Arash Adib ◽  
Jaber Salehpoor ◽  
Afshin Ashrafzadeh ◽  
Ozgur Kisi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on runoff and hydrological drought trends in the Hablehroud river basin in central Iran. We used a daily time series of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and precipitation (PCP) for the baseline period (1982–2005) analysis. For future projections, we used the output of 23 CMIP5 GCMs and two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; then, PCP, Tmin, and Tmax were projected in the future period (2025–2048). The GCMs were weighed based on the K-nearest neighbors algorithm. The results indicated a rising temperature in all months and increasing PCP in most months throughout the Hablehroud river basin's areas for the future period. The highest increase in the Tmin and Tmax in the south of the river basin under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, was 1.87 °C and 1.80 °C. Furthermore, the highest reduction in the PCP was 54.88% in August under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The river flow was simulated by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The annual runoff under the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 declined by 11.44% and 13.13%, respectively. The basin runoff had a downward trend at the baseline period; however, it will have a downward trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario and an upward trend in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the future period. This study also analyzed drought by calculating the streamflow drought index for different time scales. Overall, the Hablehroud river basin will face short-term and medium-term hydrological drought in the future period.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Change Scenarios on Soil Erosion at the Minab Dam Watershed

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Azimi Sardari ◽  
Ommolbanin Bazrafshan ◽  
Thomas Panagopoulos ◽  
Elham Rafiei Sardooi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Soil Cover ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Climate and land use change can influence susceptibility to erosion and consequently land degradation. The aim of this study was to investigate in the baseline and a future period, the land use and climate change effects on soil erosion at an important dam watershed occupying a strategic position on the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The future climate change at the study area was inferred using statistical downscaling and validated by the Canadian earth system model (CanESM2). The future land use change was also simulated using the Markov chain and artificial neural network, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was adopted to estimate soil loss under climate and land use change scenarios. Results show that rainfall erosivity (R factor) will increase under all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The highest amount of R was 40.6 MJ mm ha−1 h−1y−1 in 2030 under RPC 2.6. Future land use/land cover showed rangelands turning into agricultural lands, vegetation cover degradation and an increased soil cover among others. The change of C and R factors represented most of the increase of soil erosion and sediment production in the study area during the future period. The highest erosion during the future period was predicted to reach 14.5 t ha−1 y−1, which will generate 5.52 t ha−1 y−1 sediment. The difference between estimated and observed sediment was 1.42 t ha−1 year−1 at the baseline period. Among the soil erosion factors, soil cover (C factor) is the one that watershed managers could influence most in order to reduce soil loss and alleviate the negative effects of climate change.

Climate change effects on UK shelf sea’s connectivity and hydrographic properties

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Gabriela Mayorga Adame ◽  
James Harle ◽  
Jason Holt ◽  
Artioli Yuri ◽  
Sarah Wakelin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Change Models ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
Shelf Seas ◽  
Shelf Sea ◽  
The Uk

<p>Climate change is expected to cause important changes in ocean physics, which will in turn have important effects on the marine ecosystems. The ReCICLE project (<strong>Resolving Climate Impacts on shelf and CoastaL seas Ecosystems</strong>) aims to identify and quantify the envelope of response to climate change of lower trophic level shelf-sea ecosystems and their functional interactions, in order to assess the vulnerability of ecosystem goods and services in the UK shelf seas. The central tool for this work is an ensemble of coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical ecosystem models NEMO-ERSEM Atlantic Margin Model configuration at 7 km horizontal resolution (AMM7), forced by different CIMP5 global climate change models to generate downscaled scenarios for future decades.</p><p>Changes in connectivity patterns are expected to affect coastal populations of marine organisms in shelf seas. Holt et al 2018 (GRL https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078878) showed the potential for radical reorganization of the North Sea circulation in earlier simulations. To assess this particular issue particle tracking experiments are carried out during two 10 year time slices, in the recent past (2000-2010) and in the future (2040-2050) in ensemble members of the ReCICLE AMM7 regional downscaling showing contrasting circulation patterns. Surface particles were uniformly seeded in the UK shelf seas every month and tracked for 30 days. The resulting particle trajectories are analysed with cluster analysis technics aiming to determine if persistent oceanographic boundaries re-arrange in the future climate scenarios. The ecological effects of circulation and water masses changes in the future ocean are discussed from a Lagrangian perspective.</p><p> </p>

A framework for quantifying the impacts of future climate and land use/cover changes on runoff in the Han River basin, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Tian ◽  
Shenglian Guo ◽  
Chong-Yu Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Han River ◽  
The Future ◽  
Han River Basin

<p>As a link between the atmosphere and the earth’s surface, the hydrological cycle is impacted by both climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC). For most basins around the world, the co-variation of climate change and LUCC will continue in the future, which highlights the significance to explore the temporal-spatial distribution and variation mechanism of runoff and to improve our ability in water resources planning and management. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to propose a framework to examine the response of runoff to climate change and LUCC under different future scenarios. Firstly, the future climate scenarios under BCC-CSM1.1 and BNU-ESM are both downscaled and bias-corrected by the Daily bias correction (DBC) method, meanwhile, the future LUCC scenarios are predicted by the Cellular Automaton-Markov (CA-Markov) model according to the integrated basin plans of future land use. Then, based on the baseline scenario S0 (meteorological data from 1966 to 2005 and current situation LUCC2010), the following three scenarios are set with different combinations of future climate land-use situations, i.e., S1: only climate change scenario; S2: only the LUCC scenario; S3: climate and LUCC co-variation scenario. Lastly, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the hydrological process and quantify the impacts of climate change and LUCC on the runoff yield. The proposed framework is applied to the Han River basin in China. Results show that: (1) compared with the base period (1966-2005), the annual rainfall, daily maximum, and minimum air temperature during 2021-2060 will have an increase of 4.0%, 1.8℃, 1.6℃ in RCP4.5 while 3.7%, 2.5℃, 2.3℃ in RCP8.5, respectively; (2) from 2010 to 2050, the forest land and construction land in the Han River basin will have an increase of 2.8% and 1.2%, respectively, while that of farmland and grassland will have a decrease of 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively; (3) comparing with the single climate change or LUCC scenario, the co-variation scenario possesses the largest uncertainty in runoff projection. Under the two concentration paths, there is a consistent upward change in future runoff (2021-2060) of the studied basin compared with that in the base period, furthermore, the increase rate in RCP4.5 (+5.10%) is higher than that in RCP8.5 (+2.67%). The results of this study provide a useful reference and help for water resources and land use management in the Han River basin.</p>

Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 302-316
Author(s):  
Qiuan Zhu ◽  
Hong Jiang ◽  
Changhui Peng ◽  
Jinxun Liu ◽  
Xiuqin Fang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽  
The Future

The spatial and temporal variation and uncertainty of precipitation and runoff in China were compared and evaluated between historical and future periods under different climate change scenarios. The precipitation pattern is derived from observed and future projected precipitation data for historical and future periods, respectively. The runoff is derived from simulation results in historical and future periods using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) forced with historical observed and global climate models (GCMs) future projected climate data, respectively. One GCM (CGCM3.1) under two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and SRES B1) was used for the future period simulations. The results indicated high uncertainties and variations in climate change effects on hydrological processes in China: precipitation and runoff showed a significant increasing trend in the future period but a decreasing trend in the historical period at the national level; the temporal variation and uncertainty of projected precipitation and runoff in the future period were predicted to be higher than those in the historical period; the levels of precipitation and runoff in the future period were higher than those in the historical period. The change in trends of precipitation and runoff are highly affected by different climate change scenarios. GCM structure and emission scenarios should be the major sources of uncertainty.

scholarly journals Using climate change models to inform the recovery of the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris

Oryx ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-61
Author(s):  
Shaun W. Molloy ◽  
Allan H. Burbidge ◽  
Sarah Comer ◽  
Robert A. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Degradation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Conservation Action ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Introduced Predators ◽  
The Future

AbstractTranslocation of species to areas of former habitat after threats have been mitigated is a common conservation action. However, the long-term success of reintroduction relies on identification of currently available habitat and areas that will remain, or become, habitat in the future. Commonly, a short-term view is taken, focusing on obvious and assumed threats such as predators and habitat degradation. However, in areas subject to significant climate change, challenges include correctly identifying variables that define habitat, and considering probable changes over time. This poses challenges with species such as the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris, which was once relatively common in near-coastal south-western Australia, an area subject to major climate change. This species has declined to one small population, estimated to comprise < 150 individuals. Reasons for the decline include altered fire regimes, introduced predators and habitat clearing. The establishment of new populations is a high priority, but the extent to which a rapidly changing climate has affected, and will continue to affect, this species remains largely conjecture, and understanding probable climate change impacts is essential to the prioritization of potential reintroduction sites. We developed high-resolution species distribution models and used these to investigate climate change impacts on current and historical distributions, and identify locations that will remain, or become, bioclimatically suitable habitat in the future. This information has been given to an expert panel to identify and prioritize areas suitable for site-specific management and/or translocation.

scholarly journals Riverbed Migrations in Western Taiwan under Climate Change

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Chiung Chao ◽  
Chi-Wen Chen ◽  
Hsin-Chi Li ◽  
Yung-Ming Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Flow Discharge ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, extreme weather phenomena have occurred worldwide, resulting in many catastrophic disasters. Under the impact of climate change, the frequency of extreme rainfall events in Taiwan will increase, according to a report on climate change in Taiwan. This study analyzed riverbed migrations, such as degradation and aggradation, caused by extreme rainfall events under climate change for the Choshui River, Taiwan. We used the CCHE1D model to simulate changes in flow discharge and riverbed caused by typhoon events for the base period (1979–2003) and the end of the 21st century (2075–2099) according to the climate change scenario of representative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) and dynamical downscaling of rainfall data in Taiwan. According to the results on flow discharge, at the end of the 21st century, the average peak flow during extreme rainfall events will increase by 20% relative to the base period, but the time required to reach the peak will be 8 h shorter than that in the base period. In terms of the results of degradation and aggradation of the riverbed, at the end of the 21st century, the amount of aggradation will increase by 33% over that of the base period. In the future, upstream sediment will be blocked by the Chichi weir, increasing the severity of scouring downstream. In addition, due to the increased peak flow discharge in the future, the scouring of the pier may be more serious than it is currently. More detailed 2D or 3D hydrological models are necessary in future works, which could adequately address the erosive phenomena created by bridge piers. Our results indicate that not only will flood disasters occur within a shorter time duration, but the catchment will also face more severe degradation and aggradation in the future.

scholarly journals The Impacts of Climate Change on Maximum Daily Discharge in the Payab Jamash Watershed, Iran

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1035-1045
Author(s):  
Farzad Parandin ◽  
Asadollah Khoorani ◽  
Ommolbanin Bazrafshan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
Daily Discharge

Abstract One of the most crucial consequences of climate change involves the alteration of the hydrologic cycle and river flow regime of watersheds. This study was an endeavor to investigate the contributions of climate change to maximum daily discharge (MDD). To this end, the MDD simulation was carried out through implementing the IHACRES precipitation-runoff model in the Payyab Jamash watershed for the 21st century (2016-2100). Subsequently, the observed precipitation and temperature data of the weather stations (1980-2011) as well as 4 multi-model outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the maximum and minimum Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (2016-2100) were utilized. In order to downscale the output of GCMs, Bias Correction (BC) statistical method was applied. The projections for the 21st century indicated a reduction in Maximum Daily Precipitation (MDP) in comparison with the historic period in the study area. The average projected MDP for the future period was 9 mm/day and 5 mm/ day under 2.6 and 8.5 RCPs (4.6% and 2.6% decrease compared with the historical period), respectively. Moreover, the temperature increased in Jamash Watershed based on 2.6 and 8.5 RCPs by 1∘C and 2∘C(3.7% and 7.4% increase compared with the historical period), respectively. The findings of flow simulation for the future period indicated a decrease in MDD due to the diminished MDP in the study area. The amount of this decrease under RCP8.5 was not remarkable (0.75 m3/s), whereas its value for RCP2.6 was calculated as 40m3/s (respectively, 0.11% and 5.88% decrease compared with the historical period).

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