Modeling future changes in the North-Estonian hydropower production by using SWAT

Climate change is altering temperature, precipitation, and other climatic parameters, affecting sectors dependent on water resources, e.g. energy production. The purpose of this study is to analyze the possible influences of climate change on hydropower potential in North Estonia. In Estonian run-of-river hydropower plants, energy comes mainly from water volume. Thus, changes in hydropower production are related to changes in river runoff. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to study runoff responses to climate change in Kunda, Keila and Valgejõe river basins. A sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm is used for calibration and validation of hydrological models. Two modeling studies from EURO-CORDEX high-resolution simulations are used: RACMO regional climate model (RCM) from the Netherlands (KNMI) and HIRHAM5 RCM from Denmark (DMI). Hydrological model efficiency is evaluated with coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS). The NSE values range from 0.71 to 0.77 during calibration and validation. The PBIAS reveals no significant bias. Daily discharge data of the baseline period (1971–2000) and the future period (2071–2100) for KNMI and DMI scenarios reveal an overall increase in hydropower potential. Larger changes are predicted by the DMI model, while KNMI prediction is lower, 25% and 45% respectively.

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Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2012.035 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 207-224 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽

Tadashi Suetsugi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

River Catchment ◽

Calibration And Validation ◽

Daily Streamflow ◽

The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

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Predicting hydrologic responses to climate changes in highly glacierized and mountainous region Upper Indus Basin

Royal Society Open Science ◽

10.1098/rsos.191957 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (8) ◽

pp. 191957 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Muhammad Izhar Shah ◽

Asif Khan ◽

Tahir Ali Akbar ◽

Quazi K. Hassan ◽

Asim Jahangir Khan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Climate Model ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Model Simulation ◽

Global Climate ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Swat Model ◽

Indus Basin ◽

Upper Indus Basin

The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is a major source of supplying water to different areas because of snow and glaciers melt and is also enduring the regional impacts of global climate change. The expected changes in temperature, precipitation and snowmelt could be reasons for further escalation of the problem. Therefore, estimation of hydrological processes is critical for UIB. The objectives of this paper were to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources and future projection for surface water under different climatic scenarios using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The methodology includes: (i) development of SWAT model using land cover, soil and meteorological data; (ii) calibration of the model using daily flow data from 1978 to 1993; (iii) model validation for the time 1994–2003; (iv) bias correction of regional climate model (RCM), and (v) utilization of bias-corrected RCM for future assessment under representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for mid (2041–2070) and late century (2071–2100). The results of the study revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed flow with R 2 and Nash–Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) equal to 0.85 each for daily flow. For validation, R 2 and NSE were found to be 0.84 and 0.80, respectively. Compared to baseline period (1976–2005), the result of RCM showed an increase in temperature ranging from 2.36°C to 3.50°C and 2.92°C to 5.23°C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively, till the end of the twenty-first century. Likewise, the increase in annual average precipitation is 2.4% to 2.5% and 6.0% to 4.6% (mid to late century) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The model simulation results for RCP4.5 showed increase in flow by 19.24% and 16.78% for mid and late century, respectively. For RCP8.5, the increase in flow is 20.13% and 15.86% during mid and late century, respectively. The model was more sensitive towards available moisture and snowmelt parameters. Thus, SWAT model could be used as effective tool for climate change valuation and for sustainable management of water resources in future.

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Climate change impacts on hydrology in the Dak B’la watershed, Central Highland Vietnam based on SWAT model

10.34154/2020-ejcc-0201-22-31/euraass ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 22-31 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Nguyen Kim Loi ◽

Vo Ngoc Quynh Tram ◽

Nguyen Thi Tinh Au

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

High Reliability ◽

Water Discharge ◽

Swat Model ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Agricultural Watershed ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Central Highland ◽

Average Water

Climate is the main factor affecting hydrology in a watershed. For purely agricultural watershed, hydrological assessment and management play a very important role in the region's agricultural development. In this study, the hydrological was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. This paper aimed to calibrate and validate the SWAT model in Dak B’la watershed in Central Highland Vietnam and assess the climate change on water discharge. The coefficient of determination (R²) and Nash-Sutcliffe index (NSI), and Percent BIAS (PBIAS) during the calibration process was 0.75, 0.72, and -1.15 respectively and validation process was 0.82, 0.83, 3.67 respectively. It proved the high reliability of the SWAT model after calibration. The two climate scenarios were selected in this investigation: scenario A is the existing climate using the data from 2001 to 2018 and scenario B is the A1B emission scenario for the future period from 2020 to 2069. Compared to the average water discharge from 2001-2018 and average water discharge from 2020 to 2069, the results indicated that climate change increases the average water discharge (0.55%), especially in 2050, the water discharge in the flood season (in November) is 584 m3/s, which higher than the largest flood in 2009 of 450 m3/s.

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Hydrological modeling of Upper Ribb watershed, Abbay Basin, Ethiopia.

Global NEST Journal ◽

10.30955/gnj.003152 ◽

2020 ◽

Keyword(s):

Surface Runoff ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Simulated Data ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Climate Data ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Discharge Data ◽

Forested Areas

<p>Hydrological modeling of a watershed is necessary for water resources planning and management. The hydrology of upper Ribb watershed has been analyzed using spatially semi-distributed Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. This study aimed to determine the water balance components and its relation with the rainfall which reaches to the surface of the earth. Different spatio-temporal (land use, soil, digital elevation model, climate data, river discharge) data were used for hydrological modelling of Upper Ribb watershed. The applicability of SWAT model in Upper Ribb watershed has been evaluated using coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) parameters. The calibration results revealed the observed data showed a very good agreement with the simulated data with the R2 and NSE values of 0.90 and 0.84 respectively. Similarly, the validation results of streamflow were acceptable with the R2 and NSE values of 0.80 and 0.82 respectively. The monthly average streamflow from Upper Ribb watershed were found 13.39 m3/s. The major portion of the rainfall contributes to the surface runoff due to the major percentage of the watershed is covered with agricultural lands. The groundwater flow was high in forested areas, while evapotranspiration was found very high in water bodies (Ribb reservoir). In this study area the rainfall showed a direct relationship with the streamflow. The ratio of streamflow and evapotranspiration with rainfall was 0.61 and 0.36 respectively. Due to the presence of high amount of surface runoff and evapotranspiration the deep recharge which contributes to the ground water is not that much significant.</p>

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Analysis of hydrological processes with semi-distributed model

10.22541/au.163254198.80019081/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Rahmatullah Sediqi ◽

Mustafa Tombul

Keyword(s):

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Hydrological Processes ◽

Distributed Model ◽

Model Sensitivity ◽

Discharge Data ◽

Calibration And Validation ◽

Physically Based ◽

Calibration Program

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed physically-based hydrological model, is broadly used for simulating streamflow and analyzing hydrological processes in the basin. The SWAT model was applied to analyze the hydrological processes in Göksu Himmetli, Zamanti-Ergenuşağı, Göksun Poskoflu ve Hurman-Gözler Üstü sub-basins in the upper region of Seyhan and Ceyhan watersheds located in the south of Turkey. Model sensitivity analysis, calibration, and validation were performed using SWAT-CUP automatic calibration program and SUFI-2 algorithm. According to the model sensitivity analysis results, the most sensitive parameters in these basins have been seen as CN2, ALPHA_BNK, CH_K2, and GW_DELAY. In this study, 11 years (1994-2004) meteorological and eight years (1997-2004) observed flow data were used, three years for the model warm-up period, five years (1997-2001) for calibration, and three years (2002-2004) for validation. The model statistical performance was evaluated using the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) as the objective function. As the result of the model calibration and validation, the NSE value in the considered four sub-basins varied between 0,70 - 0,90. The results obtained in the study showed a relatively high correlation between the observed and simulated discharge data.

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Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Sediment Yield from the Logiya Watershed, Lower Awash Basin, Ethiopia

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology6030081 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 81

Author(s):

Nura Boru Jilo ◽

Bogale Gebremariam ◽

Arus Edo Harka ◽

Gezahegn Weldu Woldemariam ◽

Fiseha Behulu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sediment Yield ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Model Performance ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

Time Frames ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

It is anticipated that climate change will impact sediment yield in watersheds. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impacts of climate change on sediment yield from the Logiya watershed in the lower Awash Basin, Ethiopia. Here, we used the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa data outputs of Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Future scenarios of climate change were analyzed in two-time frames: 2020–2049 (2030s) and 2050–2079 (2060s). Both time frames were analyzed using both RCP scenarios from the baseline period (1971–2000). A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was constructed to simulate the hydrological and the sedimentological responses to climate change. The model performance was calibrated and validated using the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS). The results of the calibration and the validation of the sediment yield R2, NSE, and PBIAS were 0.83, 0.79, and −23.4 and 0.85, 0.76, and −25.0, respectively. The results of downscaled precipitation, temperature, and estimated evapotranspiration increased in both emission scenarios. These climate variable increments were expected to result in intensifications in the mean annual sediment yield of 4.42% and 8.08% for RCP4.5 and 7.19% and 10.79% for RCP8.5 by the 2030s and the 2060s, respectively.

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ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGY OF THE INDRAWATI RIVER BASIN, NEPAL

ISPRS Annals of Photogrammetry Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences ◽

10.5194/isprs-annals-iv-5-w2-1-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol IV-5/W2 ◽

pp. 1-8

Author(s):

B. Bade ◽

D. R. Gyawali ◽

S. Timilsina

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Hydrological Regime ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Future Climate Change Scenario ◽

Climate Change Assessment ◽

Water Assessment

Abstract. This study details climate change assessment of the hydrological regime of Indrawati basin of Nepal. The study uses Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to delineate, discretize and parameterize the Indrawati basin to compute model’s input parameters. The model was then run for 1990–2014 to simulate the discharge at the outlet (Dholalghat). The coefficient of determination R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe (ENS) were used to evaluate model calibration and validation. The results found were satisfactory for the gauging station R2 = 0.951 and ENS = 0.901 for calibration and R2 = 0.937 and. ENS = 0.906 for validation. The calibrated hydrological model was run for the future climate change scenario using the RegCM4-LMDZ4 data and the relative changes with the baseline scenarios were analyzed. The comparison suggests that the historical trend of flow is decreasing at the rate of 0.55 m3/s per year. According to RegCM4-LMDZ4 simulations, the trend is going to continue but at a flatter rate. The decreasing trend is observed to be very less. The characteristic peak flow month in the historical scenario is August but the RegCM4-LMDZ4 led simulated flows suggest a shift in monthly peak to October suggesting decrease in monsoon flows and a subsequent significant increase in flows from October to January.

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Impact of climate change on the hydrology of a semi-arid river basin of India under hypothetical and projected climate change scenarios

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2020.287 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Sujeet Desai ◽

D. K. Singh ◽

Adlul Islam ◽

A. Sarangi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Central India ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Global Circulation Model ◽

Calibration And Validation ◽

Semi Arid

Abstract Climate change impact on the hydrology of the Betwa river basin, located in the semi-arid region of Central India, was assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), driven by hypothetical scenarios and Model of Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) Global Circulation Model projections. SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP) was used for calibration and validation of SWAT using multi-site streamflow data. The coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio and percent bias during calibration and validation period varied from 0.83–0.92, 0.6–0.91, 0.3–0.63 and −19.8–19.3, respectively. MIROC5 projections revealed an increase in annual mean temperature in the range of 0.7–0.9 °C, 1.2–2.0 °C and 1.1–3.1 °C during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Rainfall is likely to increase in the range of 0.4–9.1% and 5.7–15.3% during the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Simulation results indicated 3.8–29% and 12–48% increase in mean annual surface runoff during the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Similarly, an increase of 0.2–3.0%, 2.6–4.2% and 3.5–6.2% in mean annual evapotranspiration is likely during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. These results could be used for developing suitable climate change adaptation plans for the river basin.

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Projection of runoff and sediment yield under coordinated climate change and urbanization scenarios in Doam dam watershed, Korea

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2016.068 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 235-253 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Young Do Kim ◽

Jung Min Kim ◽

Boosik Kang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Climate Model ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Swat Model ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Runoff Change ◽

Rate Of Increase

A hydro-environmental model chain in the Doam dam basin, Korea, was developed for an impact assessment under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1B scenario. The feasible downscaling scheme composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) and non-stationary quantile mapping was applied to the GCM (Global Climate Model) output. The impacts under climate and land use change scenarios were examined and projected using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The daily SWAT model was calibrated and validated for 2003–2004 and 2006–2008, respectively. Meanwhile the monthly SS (suspended solids) was calibrated and validated for 1999–2001 and 2007–2009, respectively. The simulation results illustrated that under the assumption of 1–5% urbanization of the forest area, the hydrologic impact is relatively negligible and the climate change impacts are dominant over the urbanization impacts. Additionally the partial impacts of land use changes were analyzed under five different scenarios: partial change of forest to urban (PCFUr), to bare field, to grassland, to upland crop (PCFUp), and to agriculture (PCFA). The analysis of the runoff change shows the highest rate of increase, 73.57% in April, for the PCFUp scenario. The second and third highest rate increases, 37.83% and 31.45% in May, occurred under the PCFA and PCFUr scenarios, respectively.

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Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Dynamics of Two Major Rivers of the Northern Lake Erie Basin in Canada

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su10082897 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 2897 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Binbin Zhang ◽

Narayan Shrestha ◽

Prasad Daggupati ◽

Ramesh Rudra ◽

Rituraj Shukla ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Soil Water ◽

Lake Erie ◽

Climate Model ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Soil Water Storage ◽

Climatic Data ◽

Monthly Streamflow

This paper focuses on understanding the effects of projected climate change on streamflow dynamics of the Grand and Thames rivers of the Northern Lake Erie (NLE) basin. A soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model is developed, calibrated, and validated in a base-period. The model is able to simulate the monthly streamflow dynamics with ‘Good’ to ‘Very Good’ accuracy. The calibrated and validated model is then subjected with daily bias-corrected future climatic data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). Five bias-correction methods and their 12 combinations were evaluated using the Climate Model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd). Distribution mapping (DM) performed the best and was used for further analysis. Two future time-periods and two IPCC AR5 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are considered. Results showed marked temporal and spatial variability in precipitation (−37% to +63%) and temperature (−3 °C to +14 °C) changes, which are reflected in evapotranspiration (−52% to +412%) and soil water storage (−60% to +12%) changes, resulting in heterogeneity in streamflow (−77% to +170%) changes. On average, increases in winter (+11%), and decreases in spring (–33%), summer (−23%), and autumn (−15%) streamflow are expected in future. This is the first work of this kind in the NLE and such marked variability in water resources availability poses considerable challenges to water resources planners and managers.

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