Theoretical derivation for the exceedance probability of corresponding flood volume of the equivalent frequency regional composition method in hydrology

Abstract The equivalent frequency regional composition (EFRC) method is an important and commonly used tool to determine the design flood regional composition at various sub-catchments in natural conditions. One of the cases in the EFRC method assumes that the exceedance probabilities of design flood volume at upstream and downstream sites are equal, and the corresponding flood volume at intermediate catchment equals the gap between the volumes of upstream and downstream floods. However, the relationship between the exceedance probability of upstream and downstream flood volumes P and that of corresponding intermediate flood volume C has not been clarified, and whether P>C or P ≤ C has not been theoretically proven. In this study, based on the normal, extreme value type I and Logistic distributions, the relationship between C and P is deduced via theoretical derivations, and based on the Pearson type III, two-parameter lognormal and generalized extreme value distributions, the relationship between C and P is investigated using Monte Carlo experiments. The results show that C is larger than P in the context of the design flood, whereas P is larger than C in the context of low-flow runoff. Thus, the issue of exceedance probability corresponding flood is further theoretically clarified using the EFRC method.

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Frequency Analysis of Low Flows

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.1985.0009 ◽

1985 ◽

Vol 16 (2) ◽

pp. 105-128 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

G. V. Loganathan ◽

C. Y. Kuo ◽

T. C. McCormick

Keyword(s):

Lower Bounds ◽

Frequency Analysis ◽

Probability Distributions ◽

Flow Analysis ◽

Extreme Value ◽

Low Flow ◽

Type Iii ◽

Low Flows ◽

Pearson Type

The transformations (i) SMEMAX (ii) Modified SMEMAX (iii) Power and Probability Distributions (iv) Weibull (α,β,γ) or Extreme value type III (v) Weibull (α,β,0) (vi) Log Pearson Type III (vii) Log Boughton are considered for the low flow analysis. Also, different parameter estimating procedures are considered. Both the Weibull and log Pearson can have positive lower bounds and thus their use in fitting low flow probabilities may not be physically justifiable. A new derivation generalizing the SMEMAX transformation is proposed. A new estimator for the log Boughton distribution is presented. It is found that the Boughton distribution with Cunnane's plotting position provides a good fit to low flows for Virginia streams.

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Design flood hydrographs from the relationship between flood peak and volume

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-14-2495-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 14 (12) ◽

pp. 2495-2505 ◽

Cited By ~ 48

Author(s):

L. Mediero ◽

A. Jiménez-Álvarez ◽

L. Garrote

Keyword(s):

Water Level ◽

Monte Carlo Experiment ◽

Skewed Data ◽

Design Flood ◽

Marginal Distributions ◽

Flood Peak ◽

Flood Volume ◽

Flood Hydrograph ◽

Flood Peaks ◽

The Relationship

Abstract. Hydrological frequency analyses are usually focused on flood peaks. Flood volumes and durations have not been studied as extensively, although there are many practical situations, such as when designing a dam, in which the full hydrograph is of interest. A flood hydrograph may be described by a multivariate function of the peak, volume and duration. Most standard bivariate and trivariate functions do not produce univariate three-parameter functions as marginal distributions, however, three-parameter functions are required to fit highly skewed data, such as flood peak and flood volume series. In this paper, the relationship between flood peak and hydrograph volume is analysed to overcome this problem. A Monte Carlo experiment was conducted to generate an ensemble of hydrographs that maintain the statistical properties of marginal distributions of the peaks, volumes and durations. This ensemble can be applied to determine the Design Flood Hydrograph (DFH) for a reservoir, which is not a unique hydrograph, but rather a curve in the peak-volume space. All hydrographs on that curve have the same return period, which can be understood as the inverse of the probability to exceed a certain water level in the reservoir in any given year. The procedure can also be applied to design the length of the spillway crest in terms of the risk of exceeding a given water level in the reservoir.

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RELAÇÕES INTENSIDADE-DURAÇÃO-FREQÜÊNCIA DE CHUVAS INTENSAS DE URUSSANGA, SC.

Irriga ◽

10.15809/irriga.2010v15n2p119 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 119-130

Author(s):

Álvaro José Back

Keyword(s):

Daily Rainfall ◽

Heavy Rain ◽

Type I ◽

Maximum Rainfall ◽

Average Value ◽

Pearson Type ◽

Intensity Duration Frequency ◽

Pearson Type Iii Distribution ◽

Frequency Relationship ◽

The Relationship

Este artigo apresenta as relações Intensidade-Duração-Freqüência de chuvas com duração de 5 até 1440 minutos para a cidade de Urussanga, SC. A distribuição de extremos tipo I forneceu melhor estimativa dos valores de chuvas intensas para durações de até 1 hora, e a distribuição Log Pearson tipo III forneceu melhor estimativa para durações superiores a 1 hora. Foram ajustados os parâmetros da equação de chuvas intensas, obtendo-se K = 6828,8; m = 0,178; b =33,85 e n = 1,143 para chuvas com duração de até 120 minutos; K = 284,3; m = 0,220; b = 0,0 e n = 0,578 para chuvas com duração de 120 a 480 minutos; K = 423,23; m = 0,297; b = 0,0 e n = 0,678 para chuvas com duração de 480 a 1440 minutos. Também foram analisadas as relações entre chuvas de diferentes durações. A relação entre a chuva máxima em 24 horas e a chuva de um dia depende do horário da coleta da chuva diária e do período de retorno, tendo em média o valor 1,14. UNITERMOS: Precipitação, chuva de projeto, estatística. BACK, Á. J. INTENSITY-DURATION-FREQUENCY RELATION OF INTENSE RAINFALL FOR URUSSANGA-SC. 2 ABSTRACT This paper presents the Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationship of rainfall with duration varying from 5 to 1440 minutes for Urussanga, SC, Brazil. The distribution of extreme type I provided best estimation of rainfall for durations up to 1 hour, and Log Pearson Type III distribution provided the best estimation for durations over 1 hour. Heavy rain equations were adjusted, resulting in K = 6828.8, m = 0.178, b = 33.85, n = 1.143 for rainfall with up to 120 minutes; K = 284.3, m = 0.220, b = 0.0, and n = 0.578 for rainfall from 120 to 480 minutes; K = 423.23, m = 0.297, b = 0.0 and n = 0.678 for rainfall from 480 to 1440 minutes. The relationship between rainfall of different durations was also analyzed. The relationship between the maximum rainfall during 24 hours and the rain of a day depends on the time of the collection of daily rainfall and return period and the average value of 1.14. KEYWORDS: Rainfall, design rainfall, statistics.

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A Consideration of the Estimation of the Design Flood for Small Basin in Gangwon Yeongdong Region

Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation ◽

10.9798/kosham.2020.20.5.33 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (5) ◽

pp. 33-45

Author(s):

Young Jun Kim ◽

Dong Ho Kang ◽

Byung Sik Kim

Keyword(s):

Human Life ◽

Estimation Method ◽

Small River ◽

Low Flow ◽

Design Flood ◽

Tracking Method ◽

Flood Volume ◽

Small Streams ◽

Flood Estimation ◽

Small River Basin

Due to the recent increase in heavy localized rain caused by climate change, the risk of flooding in mountainous areas and small streams is growing daily. To prevent damage to human life and property, it is necessary to accurately estimate the amount of design flood in the small river basin. Recently, the Standard Guidelines for Flood Estimation (Ministry of Environment, 2019) have been proposed to reduce uncertainties such as the subjective interpretations of engineers, which differ in the flood dischargeestimation, and to ensure a certain level of uniformity. However, in the case of Gangwon region,where the watershed area is small and the channel slope is steep, it is necessary to carefully approach the application of Clark’s watershed tracking method, suggested in the standard guidelines. As Gangwon-Yeongdong region is expected to be more sensitive to localized heavy rainfall due to the influence of the Taebaek Mountains andhas a relatively steeper watershed mean slope and euro slope than other regions, this study compares and analyzes the results of Clark’s basin tracking method and the “rational method”, to derive a more reasonable flood calculation method. Additionally, it suggests an appropriate flood discharge estimation method for the small river in Gangwon-Yeongdong region. Consequently, the flood amount can reasonably be calculated by applying a rational formula rather than Clark’sbasin tracking method, in which the flood volume is underestimated, when calculating the flood volume of a small river in Yeongdong, Gangwon Province, which has a low flow effect of less than 5 km<sup>2</sup>.

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Hydrocephalus in Spinal Muscular Atrophy: A Case Report and Review of the Literature

Journal of Pediatric Neurology ◽

10.1055/s-0040-1721131 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jeetendra P. Sah ◽

Aaron W. Abrams ◽

Geetha Chari ◽

Craig Linden ◽

Yaacov Anziska

Keyword(s):

Spinal Muscular Atrophy ◽

Clinical Characteristics ◽

Clinical Presentation ◽

Muscular Atrophy ◽

Communicating Hydrocephalus ◽

Type I ◽

Review Of The Literature ◽

Radiographic Findings ◽

Comprehensive Review ◽

The Relationship

AbstractIn this article, we reported a case of spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) type I noted to have tetraventricular hydrocephalus with Blake's pouch cyst at 8 months of age following intrathecal nusinersen therapy. The association of hydrocephalus with SMA is rarely reported in the literature. Development of hydrocephalus after intrathecal nusinersen therapy is also reported in some cases, but a cause–effect relationship is not yet established. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics of a patient with SMA type I and hydrocephalus, to review similar cases reported in the literature, and to explore the relationship between nusinersen therapy and development of hydrocephalus. The clinical presentation and radiographic findings of the patient are described and a comprehensive review of the literature was conducted. The adverse effect of communicating hydrocephalus related to nusinersen therapy is being reported and the authors suggest carefully monitoring for features of hydrocephalus developing during the course of nusinersen therapy.

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Characteristics and Controlling Factors of the Drought Runoff Coefficient

Water ◽

10.3390/w13091259 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 1259

Author(s):

Rei Itsukushima

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Resource Management ◽

Water Resource ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Controlling Factors ◽

Low Flow ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Runoff Coefficient ◽

Topographical Factors ◽

The Relationship

Increasing water demand due to population growth, economic development, and changes in rainfall patterns due to climate change are likely to alter the duration and magnitude of droughts. Understanding the relationship between low-flow conditions and controlling factors relative to the magnitude of a drought is important for establishing sustainable water resource management based on changes in future drought risk. This study demonstrates the relationship between low-flow and controlling factors under different severities of drought. I calculated the drought runoff coefficient for six types of occurrence probability, using past observation data of annual total discharge and precipitation in the Japanese archipelago, where multiple climate zones exist. Furthermore, I investigated the pattern of change in the drought runoff coefficient in accordance with the probability of occurrence of drought, and relationships among the coefficient and geological, land use, and topographical factors. The drought runoff coefficient for multiple drought magnitudes exhibited three behaviors, corresponding to the pattern of precipitation. Results from a generalized linear model (GLM) revealed that the controlling factors differed depending on the magnitude of the drought. During high-frequency droughts, the drought runoff coefficient was influenced by geological and vegetation factors, whereas land use and topographical factors influenced the drought runoff coefficient during low-frequency droughts. These differences were caused by differences in runoff, which dominated stream discharge, depending on the magnitude of the drought. Therefore, for effective water resource management, estimation of the volume of drought runoff needs to consider the pattern of precipitation, geology, land use, and topography.

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Linkage Disequilibrium in Domestic Sheep

Genetics ◽

10.1093/genetics/160.3.1113 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 160 (3) ◽

pp. 1113-1122

Author(s):

A F McRae ◽

J C McEwan ◽

K G Dodds ◽

T Wilson ◽

A M Crawford ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Linkage Disequilibrium ◽

Type I Error ◽

Statistical Significance ◽

Domestic Sheep ◽

Type I ◽

Single Nucleotide ◽

Microsatellite Genotype ◽

Marker Distance ◽

The Relationship ◽

Two Populations

Abstract The last decade has seen a dramatic increase in the number of livestock QTL mapping studies. The next challenge awaiting livestock geneticists is to determine the actual genes responsible for variation of economically important traits. With the advent of high density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) maps, it may be possible to fine map genes by exploiting linkage disequilibrium between genes of interest and adjacent markers. However, the extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD) is generally unknown for livestock populations. In this article microsatellite genotype data are used to assess the extent of LD in two populations of domestic sheep. High levels of LD were found to extend for tens of centimorgans and declined as a function of marker distance. However, LD was also frequently observed between unlinked markers. The prospects for LD mapping in livestock appear encouraging provided that type I error can be minimized. Properties of the multiallelic LD coefficient D′ were also explored. D′ was found to be significantly related to marker heterozygosity, although the relationship did not appear to unduly influence the overall conclusions. Of potentially greater concern was the observation that D′ may be skewed when rare alleles are present. It is recommended that the statistical significance of LD is used in conjunction with coefficients such as D′ to determine the true extent of LD.

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Probabilistic nature of storage delay parameter of the hydrologic model RORB: a case study for the Cooper's Creek catchment in Australia

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2014.172 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 46 (3) ◽

pp. 400-410 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Hitesh Patel ◽

Ataur Rahman

Keyword(s):

Hydrologic Model ◽

Exceedance Probability ◽

Design Flood ◽

Flood Peak ◽

Monte Carlo Simulation Technique ◽

South Wales ◽

Accurate Design ◽

High Degree ◽

Probabilistic Nature

In rainfall–runoff modeling, Design Event Approach is widely adopted in practice, which assumes that the rainfall depth of a given annual exceedance probability (AEP), can be converted to a flood peak of the same AEP by assuming a representative fixed value for the other model inputs/parameters such as temporal pattern, losses and storage-delay parameter of the runoff routing model. This paper presents a case study which applies Monte Carlo simulation technique (MCST) to assess the probabilistic nature of the storage delay parameter (kc) of the RORB model for the Cooper's Creek catchment in New South Wales, Australia. It has been found that the values of kc exhibit a high degree of variability, and different sets of plausible values of kc result in quite different flood peak estimates. It has been shown that a stochastic kc in the MCST provides more accurate design flood estimates than a fixed representative value of kc. The method presented in this study can be adapted to other catchments/countries to derive more accurate design flood estimates, in particular for important flood study projects, which require a sensitivity analysis to investigate the impacts of parameter uncertainty on design flood estimates.

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Relationship Between Incidence of Hyaline Membrane Disease and Maternal Hypertension During Pregnancy

Paediatrica Indonesiana ◽

10.14238/pi38.3-4.1998.47-53 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 38 (3-4) ◽

pp. 47

Author(s):

Lasmida Nazir Nuriman ◽

Dadang Sjarif Hidajat

Keyword(s):

Distress Syndrome ◽

Hyaline Membrane Disease ◽

Cross Sectional Study ◽

Type I ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Hypertension In Pregnancy ◽

Hyaline Membrane ◽

Neonatal Respiratory Distress ◽

Maternal Hypertension ◽

The Relationship

There have been controversies over the eiTect of hypertension in pregnancy on the incidence of type I neonatal respiratory distress syndrome or hyaline membrane disease (HMD). We investigated the relationship between the incidence of HMD and maternal hypertension during pregnancy in 91 infants at 34 weeks gestation or less. This retrospective cross sectional study included all live born babies between May 1, 1994 and April 30, 1995 at Dr. Hasan Sadikin General Hospital, Bandung. Maternal hypertension during pregnancy was diagnosed in 38 mothers of91 infants studied. The incidence of HMD (5%) in the maternal hypertension during pregnancy group was significantly lower than the 62% in the normotensive group (p<0.01). There was a negative correlation between the occurence of HMD and hypertension during pregnancy. We conclude that the risk of developing HMD in infants born to hypertensive mothers is significantly lower than those born to normotensive mothers.

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Role of Hypoxia-Mediated Autophagy in Tumor Cell Death and Survival

Cancers ◽

10.3390/cancers13030533 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (3) ◽

pp. 533

Author(s):

Rania F. Zaarour ◽

Bilal Azakir ◽

Edries Y. Hajam ◽

Husam Nawafleh ◽

Nagwa A. Zeinelabdin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cell Death ◽

Type I ◽

Dependent Manner ◽

Destruction Process ◽

Tumor Cell Death ◽

Complex Regulation ◽

Cancer Immunotherapies ◽

The Relationship ◽

Shed Light

Programmed cell death or type I apoptosis has been extensively studied and its contribution to the pathogenesis of disease is well established. However, autophagy functions together with apoptosis to determine the overall fate of the cell. The cross talk between this active self-destruction process and apoptosis is quite complex and contradictory as well, but it is unquestionably decisive for cell survival or cell death. Autophagy can promote tumor suppression but also tumor growth by inducing cancer-cell development and proliferation. In this review, we will discuss how autophagy reprograms tumor cells in the context of tumor hypoxic stress. We will illustrate how autophagy acts as both a suppressor and a driver of tumorigenesis through tuning survival in a context dependent manner. We also shed light on the relationship between autophagy and immune response in this complex regulation. A better understanding of the autophagy mechanisms and pathways will undoubtedly ameliorate the design of therapeutics aimed at targeting autophagy for future cancer immunotherapies.

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