scholarly journals An updated national-scale assessment of trends in UK peak river flow data: how robust are observed increases in flooding?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Hannaford ◽  
N. Mastrantonas ◽  
G. Vesuviano ◽  
S. Turner
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Human Disturbances ◽  
Data Limitations ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Flood Magnitude ◽  
The Uk

Abstract A cluster of recent floods in the UK has prompted significant interest in the question of whether floods are becoming more frequent or severe over time. Many trend assessments have addressed this in recent decades, typically concluding that there is evidence for positive trends in flood magnitude at the national scale. However, trend testing is a contentious area, and the resilience of such conclusions must be tested rigorously. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of flood magnitude trends using the UK national flood dataset (NRFA Peak Flows). Importantly, we assess trends using this full dataset as well as a subset of near-natural catchments with high-quality flood data to determine how climate-driven trends compare with those from the wider dataset that are subject to a wide range of human disturbances and data limitations. We also examine the sensitivity of reported trends to changes in study time window using a ‘multitemporal’ analysis. We find that the headline claim of increased flooding generally holds up regionally to nationally, although we show a much more complicated picture of spatio-temporal variability. While some reported trends, such as increasing flooding in northern and western Britain, appear to be robust, trends in other regions are more mixed spatially and temporally – for example, trends in recent decades are not necessarily representative of longer-term change, and within regions (e.g. in southeast England) increasing and decreasing trends can be found in close proximity. While headline conclusions are useful for advancing national flood-risk policy, for flood-risk estimation, it is important to unpack these local changes, and the results and methodological toolkit provided here could provide such supporting information to practitioners.

scholarly journals National flood modelling for insurance purposes: using IFSAR for flood risk estimation in Europe

2005 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 449-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Sanders ◽  
F. Shaw ◽  
H. MacKay ◽  
H. Galy ◽  
M. Foote
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Digital Terrain ◽  
Terrain Models ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. Flood risk poses a major problem for insurers and governments who ultimately pay the financial costs of losses resulting from flood events. Insurers therefore face the problem of how to assess their exposure to floods and how best to price the flood element of their insurance products. This paper looks at the insurance implications of recent flood events in Europe and the issues surrounding insurance of potential future events. In particular, the paper will focus on the flood risk information needs of insurers and how these can be met. The data requirements of national and regional flood models are addressed in the context of the accuracy of available data on property location. Terrain information is generally the weakest component of sophisticated flood models. Therefore, various sources of digital terrain models (DTM) are examined and discussed with consideration of the vertical and horizontal accuracy, the speed of acquisition, the costs and the comprehensiveness of the data. The NEXTMap DTM series from Intermap Technologies Inc. is proposed as a suitable DTM for flood risk identification and mapping, following its use in the UK. Its acquisition, processing and application is described and future plans discussed. Examples are included of the application of flood information to insurance property information and the potential benefits and advantages of using suitable hazard modelling data sources are detailed.

scholarly journals A review of the UK and British Channel Islands practical tidal stream energy resource

2021 ◽  
Vol 477 (2255) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Coles ◽  
Athanasios Angeloudis ◽  
Deborah Greaves ◽  
Gordon Hastie ◽  
Matthew Lewis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Ecological Impact ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Combined Cycle ◽  
Channel Islands ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Tidal Stream ◽  
Tidal Stream Energy ◽  
The Uk

This review provides a critical, multi-faceted assessment of the practical contribution tidal stream energy can make to the UK and British Channel Islands future energy mix. Evidence is presented that broadly supports the latest national-scale practical resource estimate, of 34 TWh/year, equivalent to 11% of the UK’s current annual electricity demand. The size of the practical resource depends in part on the economic competitiveness of projects. In the UK, 124 MW of prospective tidal stream capacity is currently eligible to bid for subsidy support (MeyGen 1C, 80 MW; PTEC, 30 MW; and Morlais, 14 MW). It is estimated that the installation of this 124 MW would serve to drive down the levelized cost of energy (LCoE), through learning, from its current level of around 240   £ / MWh to below 150   £ / MWh , based on a mid-range technology learning rate of 17%. Doing so would make tidal stream cost competitive with technologies such as combined cycle gas turbines, biomass and anaerobic digestion. Installing this 124 MW by 2031 would put tidal stream on a trajectory to install the estimated 11.5 GW needed to generate 34 TWh/year by 2050. The cyclic, predictable nature of tidal stream power shows potential to provide additional, whole-system cost benefits. These include reductions in balancing expenditure that are not considered in conventional LCoE estimates. The practical resource is also dependent on environmental constraints. To date, no collisions between animals and turbines have been detected, and only small changes in habitat have been measured. The impacts of large arrays on stratification and predator–prey interaction are projected to be an order of magnitude less than those from climate change, highlighting opportunities for risk retirement. Ongoing field measurements will be important as arrays scale up, given the uncertainty in some environmental and ecological impact models. Based on the findings presented in this review, we recommend that an updated national-scale practical resource study is undertaken that implements high-fidelity, site-specific modelling, with improved model validation from the wide range of field measurements that are now available from the major sites. Quantifying the sensitivity of the practical resource to constraints will be important to establish opportunities for constraint retirement. Quantification of whole-system benefits is necessary to fully understand the value of tidal stream in the energy system.

scholarly journals Climate-driven changes in UK river flows

2015 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie Hannaford
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Research Effort ◽  
Flow Regimes ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Human Disturbances ◽  
Apparent Contradiction ◽  
River Flows ◽  
Climatic Trend ◽  
The Uk

There is a burgeoning international literature on hydro-climatic trend detection, motivated by the need to detect and interpret any emerging changes in river flows associated with anthropogenic climate change. The UK has a particularly strong evidence base in this area thanks to a well-developed monitoring programme and a wealth of studies published over the last 20 years. This paper reviews this research, with a view to assessing the evidence for climate change influences on UK river flow, including floods and droughts. This assessment is of international relevance given the scale of the research effort in the UK, a densely monitored and data-rich environment, but one with significant human disturbances to river flow regimes, as in many parts of the world. The review finds that changes can be detected in river flow regimes, some of which agree with future change projections, while others are in apparent contradiction. Observed changes generally cannot be attributed to climate change, largely due to the fact that river flow records are limited in length and the identification of short-term trends is confounded by natural variability. A UK ‘Benchmark’ network of near-natural catchments is an internationally significant example of an initiative to enable climate variability to be discerned from direct human disturbances (e.g. abstractions, dam construction). Generally, however, the problem of attribution has been tackled rather indirectly in the UK, as elsewhere, and more efforts are required to attribute change in a more rigorous manner.

scholarly journals The floods of December 2015 in northern England: description of the events and possible implications for flood hydrology in the UK

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 568-596 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Spencer ◽  
Duncan Faulkner ◽  
Ian Perkins ◽  
David Lindsay ◽  
Guy Dixon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Historical Events ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Flooding Events

Abstract In December 2015, northern England experienced two major flooding events with extreme, even in some locations unprecedented, rainfalls and flooding. New 24-, 36-, and 48-hour UK rainfall records were created of 341.4, 401.4, and 405.2 mm, respectively. Three river-flow gauging stations, with flows of around 1,700 m3/s exceeded the previous peak flow record for England and Wales. There was widespread flooding, including major towns and cities, some of which had recent flood alleviation schemes. In Cumbria, the flood events in 2005, 2009 and 2015 compared with previous and historical events raise questions about the stationarity of the flood data and flood-producing mechanisms. These possible effects are less apparent elsewhere in northern England. This paper discusses whether present methods of estimating flood risk are able to cope with such extreme events and suggests topics for future research. In the meantime, for studies where flood estimates are important, practical hydrologists are faced with the difficult task of producing design flood estimates which fit with our understanding of these events.

scholarly journals Assessing climate risks across different business sectors and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2121) ◽  
pp. 20170307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swenja Surminski ◽  
Manuela Di Mauro ◽  
J. Alastair R. Baglee ◽  
Richenda K. Connell ◽  
Joel Hankinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Climate Change Risk ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Methodological Challenges ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Uk

Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

scholarly journals CAMELS-GB: hydrometeorological time series and landscape attributes for 671 catchments in Great Britain

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 2459-2483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma Coxon ◽  
Nans Addor ◽  
John P. Bloomfield ◽  
Jim Freer ◽  
Matt Fry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Large Sample ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Human Management ◽  
Temperature Radiation ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. We present the first large-sample catchment hydrology dataset for Great Britain, CAMELS-GB (Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large-sample Studies). CAMELS-GB collates river flows, catchment attributes and catchment boundaries from the UK National River Flow Archive together with a suite of new meteorological time series and catchment attributes. These data are provided for 671 catchments that cover a wide range of climatic, hydrological, landscape, and human management characteristics across Great Britain. Daily time series covering 1970–2015 (a period including several hydrological extreme events) are provided for a range of hydro-meteorological variables including rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, temperature, radiation, humidity, and river flow. A comprehensive set of catchment attributes is quantified including topography, climate, hydrology, land cover, soils, and hydrogeology. Importantly, we also derive human management attributes (including attributes summarising abstractions, returns, and reservoir capacity in each catchment), as well as attributes describing the quality of the flow data including the first set of discharge uncertainty estimates (provided at multiple flow quantiles) for Great Britain. CAMELS-GB (Coxon et al., 2020; available at https://doi.org/10.5285/8344e4f3-d2ea-44f5-8afa-86d2987543a9) is intended for the community as a publicly available, easily accessible dataset to use in a wide range of environmental and modelling analyses.

scholarly journals CAMELS-GB: Hydrometeorological time series and landscape attributes for 671 catchments in Great Britain

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma Coxon ◽  
Nans Addor ◽  
John P. Bloomfield ◽  
Jim Freer ◽  
Matt Fry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Large Sample ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Human Management ◽  
Temperature Radiation ◽  
Hydrological Extreme ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. We present the first large-sample catchment hydrology dataset for Great Britain, CAMELS-GB (Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large-sample Studies). CAMELS-GB collates river flows, catchment attributes and catchment boundaries from the UK National River Flow Archive together with a suite of new meteorological timeseries and catchment attributes. These data are provided for 671 catchments that cover a wide range of climatic, hydrological, landscape and human management characteristics across Great Britain. Daily timeseries covering 1970–2015 (a period including several hydrological extreme episodes) are provided for a range of hydro-meteorological variables including rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, temperature, radiation, humidity and river flow. A comprehensive set of catchment attributes are quantified including topography, climate, hydrology, land cover, soils and hydrogeology. Importantly, we also derive human management attributes (including attributes summarising abstractions, returns and reservoir capacity in each catchment), as well as attributes describing the quality of the flow data including the first set of discharge uncertainty estimates for Great Britain. CAMELS-GB (Coxon et al, 2020; available at https://doi.org/10.5285/8344e4f3-d2ea-44f5-8afa-86d2987543a9) is intended for the community as a publicly available, easily accessible dataset to use in a wide range of environmental and modelling analyses.

scholarly journals An appraisal of the performance of data-infilling methods for application to daily mean river flow records in the UK

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (5) ◽  
pp. 618-636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine L. Harvey ◽  
Harry Dixon ◽  
Jamie Hannaford
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
Strong Influence ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Data Transfer ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
Improved Performance ◽  
The Uk

River flow records are fundamental for the sustainable management of water resources and even very short gaps can severely compromise their utility. Suitably-flagged flow estimates, derived via judicious infilling, are potentially highly beneficial to data users. The UK National River Flow Archive provides stewardship of, and access to, UK river flow records. While many datasets held on the archive are complete, gaps remain across a wide range of flow records. A comprehensive assessment of existing techniques for infilling these gaps is currently lacking. This paper therefore assesses 15 simple infilling techniques (including regression, scaling and equipercentile approaches), each relying upon data transfer from hydrologically-similar donor stations, to generate estimates of flow at 26 representative gauging stations. Results reveal the overall superiority of equipercentile and multiple regression techniques compared to the poorer capability of catchment area scaling. Donor station choice has a strong influence on technique performance. Modifying datasets to improve homogeneity, by seasonally grouping flows or excluding certain periods, offers improved performance. These findings provide a foundation upon which guidance on infilling river flow records can be based in future, allowing hydrometric practitioners and data end-users alike to adopt a consistent and auditable approach towards infilling.

ESRC Review

2020 ◽  
pp. 657-698
Author(s):  
Simeon J. Yates ◽  
Jordana Blejmar
Keyword(s):  
Social Research ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Us ◽  
Levels Of Automation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Technological World ◽  
Ways Of Being

Two workshops were part of the final steps in the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) commissioned Ways of Being in a Digital Age project that is the basis for this Handbook. The ESRC project team coordinated one with the UK Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (ESRC-DSTL) Workshop, “The automation of future roles”; and one with the US National Science Foundation (ESRC-NSF) Workshop, “Changing work, changing lives in the new technological world.” Both workshops sought to explore the key future social science research questions arising for ever greater levels of automation, use of artificial intelligence, and the augmentation of human activity. Participants represented a wide range of disciplinary, professional, government, and nonprofit expertise. This chapter summarizes the separate and then integrated results. First, it summarizes the central social and economic context, the method and project context, and some basic definitional issues. It then identifies 11 priority areas needing further research work that emerged from the intense interactions, discussions, debates, clustering analyses, and integration activities during and after the two workshops. Throughout, it summarizes how subcategories of issues within each cluster relate to central issues (e.g., from users to global to methods) and levels of impacts (from wider social to community and organizational to individual experiences and understandings). Subsections briefly describe each of these 11 areas and their cross-cutting issues and levels. Finally, it provides a detailed Appendix of all the areas, subareas, and their specific questions.

Punk as Folk: Continuities and Tensions in the UK and Beyond

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pete Dale
Keyword(s):  
Folk Music ◽  
Music Making ◽  
Collective Creativity ◽  
Living Tradition ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Uk

Numerous claims have been made by a wide range of commentators that punk is somehow “a folk music” of some kind. Doubtless there are several continuities. Indeed, both tend to encourage amateur music-making, both often have affiliations with the Left, and both emerge at least partly from a collective/anti-competitive approach to music-making. However, there are also significant tensions between punk and folk as ideas/ideals and as applied in practice. Most obviously, punk makes claims to a “year zero” creativity (despite inevitably offering re-presentation of at least some existing elements in every instance), whereas folk music is supposed to carry forward a tradition (which, thankfully, is more recognized in recent decades as a subject-to-change “living tradition” than was the case in folk’s more purist periods). Politically, meanwhile, postwar folk has tended more toward a socialist and/or Marxist orientation, both in the US and UK, whereas punk has at least rhetorically claimed to be in favor of “anarchy” (in the UK, in particular). Collective creativity and competitive tendencies also differ between the two (perceived) genre areas. Although the folk scene’s “floor singer” tradition offers a dispersal of expressive opportunity comparable in some ways to the “anyone can do it” idea that gets associated with punk, the creative expectation of the individual within the group differs between the two. Punk has some similarities to folk, then, but there are tensions, too, and these are well worth examining if one is serious about testing out the common claim, in both folk and punk, that “anyone can do it.”

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