Hydrologic impacts of climate change and urbanization in the Las Vegas Wash Watershed, Nevada

A cell-based model for the Las Vegas Wash Watershed in Clark County, Nevada, USA, was developed by combining the Thornthwaite water balance model and the Soil Conservation Survey's Curve Number method with pixel-based computing technology. After the model was validated, it was used to predict the 2030 and 2050 hydrologic conditions under future scenarios of climate and land-use changes. The future climate projections were based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) B1 climate scenario, and the land-use scenarios were derived from a CA-Markov land-use model. Results indicate that under these hypothetical conditions, the future surface runoff in the watershed will significantly decrease in winters but increase in summers. Climate change will be the primary controlling factor over runoff. Urban development is projected to increase runoff and may contribute 1.1–18.7% of the changes. This finding may be useful in devising future urban development plans and water management policies.

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Threats of future climate change and land use to vulnerable tree species native to Southern California

Environmental Conservation ◽

10.1017/s0376892914000265 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 42 (2) ◽

pp. 127-138 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

ERIN C. RIORDAN ◽

THOMAS W. GILLESPIE ◽

LINCOLN PITCHER ◽

STEPHANIE S. PINCETL ◽

G. DARREL JENERETTE ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Habitat Loss ◽

Tree Species ◽

Southern California ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Biodiversity Loss ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Intergovernmental Panel

SUMMARYClimate and land-use changes are expected to drive high rates of environmental change and biodiversity loss in Mediterranean ecosystems this century. This paper compares the relative future impacts of land use and climate change on two vulnerable tree species native to Southern California (Juglans californica and Quercus engelmannii) using species distribution models. Under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's A1B future scenario, high levels of both projected land use and climate change could drive considerable habitat losses on these two already heavily-impacted tree species. Under scenarios of no dispersal, projected climate change poses a greater habitat loss threat relative to projected land use for both species. Assuming unlimited dispersal, climate-driven habitat gains could offset some of the losses due to both drivers, especially in J. californica which could experience net habitat gains under combined impacts of both climate change and land use. Quercus engelmannii, in contrast, could experience net habitat losses under combined impacts, even under best-case unlimited dispersal scenarios. Similarly, projected losses and gains in protected habitat are highly sensitive to dispersal scenario, with anywhere from > 60% loss in protected habitat (no dispersal) to > 170% gain in protected habitat (unlimited dispersal). The findings underscore the importance of dispersal in moderating future habitat loss for vulnerable species.

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Modeling the combined impact of future climate and land use changes on streamflow of Xinjiang Basin, China

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2015.206 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 47 (2) ◽

pp. 356-372 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

Renhua Yan ◽

Jiacong Huang ◽

Yan Wang ◽

Junfeng Gao ◽

Lingyan Qi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Planning ◽

Scientific Information ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Climate Scenario ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Evolution

The response of hydrologic circulation to climate and land use changes is important in studying the historical, present, and future evolution of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 multi-model ensemble and a raster-based Xin'anjiang model were applied to simulate future streamflows under three climate change scenarios and two land use/cover change conditions in the Xinjiang Basin, China, and to investigate the combined effect of future climate and land use/cover changes on streamflow. Simulation results indicated that future climate and land use/cover changes affect not only the seasonal distributions of streamflow, but also the annual amounts of streamflow. For each climate scenario, the average monthly streamflows increase by more than 4% in autumn and early winter, while decreasing by more than −26% in spring and summer for the 21st century. The annual streamflows present a clear decreasing trend of −27%. Compared with land use/cover change, climate change affects streamflow change more. Land use/cover change can mitigate the climate change effect from January to August and enhance it in other months. These results can provide scientific information for regional water resources management and land use planning in the future.

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Identifying the runoff variation in the Naryn River Basin under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2021.422 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

J. S. Wu ◽

Y. P. Li ◽

J. Sun ◽

P. P. Gao ◽

G. H. Huang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

River Basin ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Arable Land ◽

Low Flow ◽

Ensemble Prediction ◽

Runoff Variation ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Abstract A multiple scenario-based ensemble prediction (MSEP) method is developed for exploring the impacts of climate and land-use changes on runoff in the Naryn River Basin. MSEP incorporates multiple global climate models, Cellular Automata–Markov and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within a general framework. MSEP can simultaneously analyze the effects of climate and land-use changes on runoff, as well as provide multiple climate and land-use scenarios to reflect the associated uncertainties in runoff simulation and prediction. Totally 96 scenarios are considered to analyze the trend and range of future runoff. Ensemble prediction results reveal that (i) climate change plays a leading role in runoff variation; (ii) compared to the baseline values, peak flow would increase 36.6% and low flow would reduce 36.8% by the 2080s, which would result in flooding and drought risks in the future and (iii) every additional hectare of arable land would increase the water deficit by an average of 10.9 × 103 m3, implying that the arable land should be carefully expanded in the future. Results suggest that, to mitigate the impact of climate change, the rational control of arable land and the active promotion of irrigation efficiency are beneficial for water resources management and ecological environmental recovery.

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Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 17 (9) ◽

pp. 3661-3677 ◽

Cited By ~ 50

Author(s):

A. F. Lutz ◽

W. W. Immerzeel ◽

A. Gobiet ◽

F. Pellicciotti ◽

M. F. P. Bierkens

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Water Availability ◽

Balance Model ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Mass Balance Model ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Central Asian ◽

The Future

Abstract. Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

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Probable streamflow changes and its associated risk to the water resources of Abuan watershed, Philippines caused by climate change and land use changes

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment ◽

10.1007/s00477-020-01953-3 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Arnan Araza ◽

Maricon Perez ◽

Rex Victor Cruz ◽

Larlyn Faith Aggabao ◽

Eugene Soyosa

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Land Cover ◽

Crop Production ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

The Philippines ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Baseline Model

AbstractOne of the main impact areas of climate change (CC), and land use and land cover change (LULCC) is the hydrology of watersheds, which have negative implications to the water resources. Their impact can be indicated by changes on streamflow, which is quantifiable using process-based streamflow modelling of baseline and future scenarios. Here we include the uncertainty and associated risk of the streamflow changes for a robust impact assessment to agriculture. We created a baseline model and models of CC and LULCC “impact scenarios” that use: (1) the new climate projections until 2070 and (2) land cover scenarios worsened by forest loss, in a critical watershed in the Philippines. Simulations of peak flows by 26% and low flows by 63% from the baseline model improved after calibrating runoff, soil evaporation, and groundwater parameters. Using the calibrated model, impacts of both CC and LULCC in 2070 were indicated by water deficit (− 18.65%) from May to August and water surplus (12.79%) from November to December. Both CC and LULCC contributed almost equally to the deficit, but the surplus was more LULCC-driven. Risk from CC may affect 9.10% of the croplands equivalent to 0.31 million dollars, while both CC and LULCC doubled the croplands at risk (19.13%, 0.60 million dollars) in one cropping season. The findings warn for the inevitable cropping schedule adjustments in the coming decades, which both apply to irrigated and rainfed crops, and may have implications to crop yields. This study calls for better watershed management to mitigate the risk to crop production and even potential flood risks.

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Modeling impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow, nitrate, and ammonium in the Kor River, southwest of Iran

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2018.098 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 818-834 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Amir Asadi Vaighan ◽

Nasser Talebbeydokhti ◽

Alireza Massah Bavani ◽

Paul Whitehead

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Period ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Assessment Report ◽

Kor River ◽

Southwest Of Iran ◽

Catchment Model

Abstract This study examined the separate and combined impacts of future changes in climate and land use on streamflow, nitrate and ammonium in the Kor River Basin, southwest of Iran, using the representative concentration pathway 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Different land use and climate change scenarios were used and the streamflow, nitrate and ammonium in the future period (2020–2049) under these scenarios were simulated by Integrated Catchment Model for Nitrogen (INCA–N). Results indicated that climate change will increase streamflows and decrease nitrate and ammonium concentrations in summer and autumn. Land use changes were found to have a little impact on streamflows but a significant impact on water quality, particularly under an urban development scenario. Under combined scenarios, larger seasonal changes in streamflows and mixed changes of nitrate and ammonium concentrations were predicted.

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The future impact of climate and land-use changes on Anatolian ground squirrels under different scenarios

10.1101/2021.09.14.460244 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hakan Gur

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Biodiversity Loss ◽

Ground Squirrels ◽

Central Anatolia ◽

Niche Modelling ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Climate and land-use changes are among the most important drivers of biodiversity loss and, moreover, their impacts on biodiversity are expected to increase further in the 21st century. In this study, the future impact of climate and land-use changes on Anatolian ground squirrels was assessed. Accordingly, a hierarchical approach with two steps was used. First, ecological niche modelling was used to assess the impact of climate change in areas accessible to Anatolian ground squirrels through dispersal (i.e. the impact of climate change). Second, based on the habitat preferences of ground squirrels, land-use data were used to assess the impact of land-use change in suitable bioclimatic areas for Anatolian ground squirrels under present and future conditions (i.e. the combined impact of both changes). Also, priority areas for the conservation of Anatolian ground squirrels were identified based on in-situ climate change refugia. This study represents a first attempt to combine niche modelling and land-use data for a species in Anatolia, one of the most vulnerable regions to the drivers of biodiversity loss, because it is the region where three of biodiversity hotspots meet, and interact. Habitat availability (i.e. suitable habitats across suitable bioclimatic areas) was projected to decline by 19-69% in the future (depending on the scenario), mainly due to the loss of suitable bioclimatic areas (47-77%, depending on the scenario) at lower elevations and in the western part of the central Anatolia and in the eastern Anatolia, suggesting that Anatolian ground squirrels will contract their range in the future, mainly due to climate change. Thus, in-situ climate change refugia were projected mainly in the eastern and southeastern parts of the central Anatolia, suggesting these regions as priority areas for the conservation of Anatolian ground squirrels.

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Hydrological response of LULC and climate change in Mediterranean basin: application to the Siliana catchment in Tunisia

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6043 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Imen EL Ghoul ◽

Haykel Sellami ◽

Kaoutar Mounir ◽

Slaheddine Khlifi ◽

Marnik Vanclooster

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Swat Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Slight Reduction ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Climate Change Uncertainty ◽

The Future

Land use/ Land cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this study, combined effects of changes in climate and LULC on hydrological processes are investigated by comparing baseline period (2000-2013) to future conditions (2030-2070) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model in the Siliana catchment in Tunisia.The LULC future scenarios are modelled using the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain while climate change scenarios were derived from the regional climate models (RCMs) in the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX-Europe). The (CDF) matching approach with observed precipitation and temperature records is used for bias correction. Subsequently, bias corrected climate projections and LULC future scenarios are fed in the SWAT model to assess changes in catchment hydrology based on a set of hydrological indicators (e.g. monthly discharge and total water availability). Prediction uncertainty related to changes in LULC, climate conditions and SWAT model parameter are also assessed.A significant decrease in pasture and an increase in irrigated lands will likely shape the future LULC in comparison to the baseline conditions. However, these changes will be combined by a warmer and drier climate and hydrological conditions in the future in the Siliana catchment. By considering only changes in LULC in the reference period, there was a slight reduction in the surface runoff and total available water in the catchment.&#160;KEYWORDS: hydrologic response; land use change; climate change; uncertainty; Mediterranean catchment; SWAT model; CA-Markov

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The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-9-509-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 509-525 ◽

Cited By ~ 101

Author(s):

S. Kloster ◽

N. M. Mahowald ◽

J. T. Randerson ◽

P. J. Lawrence

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

21St Century ◽

Carbon Emissions ◽

Fire Management ◽

Climate Projection ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Fire Emissions ◽

The Future ◽

In Fire

Abstract. Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire activity will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075–2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985–2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projections. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by −5%. The RCP 26 and RCP 60 harvest and landuse projections caused decreases around −20%. Changes in human ignition led to an increase of 20%. When we also included changes in fire management efforts to suppress fires in densely populated areas, global fire carbon emission decreased by −6% in response to changes in population density. We concluded from this study that changes in fire emissions in the future are controlled by multiple interacting factors. Although changes in climate led to an increase in future fire emissions this could be globally counterbalanced by coupled changes in land use, harvest, and demography.

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Changes in Coastal Agricultural Land Use in Response to Climate Change: An Assessment Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Household Survey Data in Tien Hai District, Thai Binh Province, Vietnam

Land ◽

10.3390/land10060627 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 627

Author(s):

Duong H. Nong ◽

An T. Ngo ◽

Hoa P. T. Nguyen ◽

Thuy T. Nguyen ◽

Lan T. Nguyen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Household Survey ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Agricultural Land Use ◽

Landsat 8 ◽

Land Uses

We analyzed the agricultural land-use changes in the coastal areas of Tien Hai district, Thai Binh province, in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, using Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 data. We used the object-oriented classification method with the maximum likelihood algorithm to classify six types of land uses. The series of land-use maps we produced had an overall accuracy of more than 80%. We then conducted a spatial analysis of the 5-year land-use change using ArcGIS software. In addition, we surveyed 150 farm households using a structured questionnaire regarding the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and land uses, as well as farmers’ adaptation and responses. The results showed that from 2005 to 2020, cropland decreased, while aquaculture land and forest land increased. We observed that the most remarkable decreases were in the area of rice (485.58 ha), the area of perennial crops (109.7 ha), and the area of non-agricultural land (747.35 ha). The area of land used for aquaculture and forest increased by 566.88 ha and 772.60 ha, respectively. We found that the manifestations of climate change, such as extreme weather events, saltwater intrusion, drought, and floods, have had a profound impact on agricultural production and land uses in the district, especially for annual crops and aquaculture. The results provide useful information for state authorities to design land-management strategies and solutions that are economic and effective in adapting to climate change.

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