scholarly journals Assessment of the climate change risks for inflow into Sagami Dam reservoir using a hydrological model

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 367-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sho Momiyama ◽  
Masaki Sagehashi ◽  
Michihiro Akiba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Calibration Method ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply Systems ◽  
Dam Reservoir ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
The Past ◽  
Comprehensive Method

Abstract Adverse effects of future climate change on water supply systems are of concern. High turbidity caused by abrupt flood, and drought caused by continuous dry days are the major risks. To assess such risks, a comprehensive method to simulate hydrology with high spatiotemporal resolution should be developed. In this study, a series of methods from parameter estimation to future simulation using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was demonstrated for Sagami Dam reservoir, which is a typical water supply reservoir in Japan. A proposed parameter calibration method by optimizing percent bias followed by optimizing Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency gave good performance of model prediction of the daily average reservoir inflow in the past. Using this model, the changes in inflow under expected climate change were simulated. Three predicted daily climates by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) under three representative concentration pathways, i.e., RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, in 2081–2100 were used for the simulation, whereas observed daily climate during 1981–2000 was used as the past reference. The risks were discussed by considering their seasonality, indicating increases in flood and drought in June and July, and in February and April, respectively.

scholarly journals Trading-off tolerable risk with climate change adaptation costs in water supply systems

2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 622-643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edoardo Borgomeo ◽  
Mohammad Mortazavi-Naeini ◽  
Jim W. Hall ◽  
Michael J. O'Sullivan ◽  
Tim Watson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Water Supply Systems ◽  
Tolerable Risk ◽  
Supply Systems ◽  
Adaptation Costs

scholarly journals Impact of future climate change on water supply and irrigation demand in a small mediterranean catchment. Case study: Nebhana dam system, Tunisia

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1724-1747 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Allani ◽  
R. Mezzi ◽  
A. Zouabi ◽  
R. Béji ◽  
F. Joumade-Mansouri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Cycle Duration ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Time Periods

Abstract This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand of the Nebhana dam system. Future climate change scenarios were obtained from five general circulation models (GCMs) of CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios for the time periods, 2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. Statistical downscaling was applied using LARS-WG. The GR2M hydrological model was calibrated, validated and used as input to the WEAP model to assess future water availability. Expected crop growth cycle lengths were estimated using a growing degree days model. By means of the WEAP-MABIA method, projected crop and irrigation water requirements were estimated. Results show an average increase in annual ETo of 6.1% and a decrease in annual rainfall of 11.4%, leading to a 24% decrease in inflow. Also, crops' growing cycles will decrease from 5.4% for wheat to 31% for citrus trees. The same tendency is observed for ETc. Concerning irrigation requirement, variations are more moderated depending on RCPs and time periods, and is explained by rainfall and crop cycle duration variations. As for demand and supply, results currently show that supply does not meet the system demand. Climate change could worsen the situation unless better planning of water surface use is done.

Determining parameters and chronology of a sustainable water harvest system in desert oases; case study Qurayyah, northwest Arabian Peninsula

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Prochazka ◽  
Marta Luciani ◽  
Christopher Lüthgens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Reverse Engineering ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Irrigation System ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Supply Systems ◽  
Water Harvesting ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Engineering Approach

<p>The arid regions of the world occupy 46% of the total surface area, providing a habitat for 3 billion people. More than 630 million people are directly affected by desertification. Extreme events like droughts and flash floods increase the pressure on plants, animals and above all, humans and their settlements. In the context of a climate change with such far-reaching consequences, historical oases settlements stand out as best practice examples, because their water supply systems must have been adapted to the changing climate during the Holocene to guarantee the viability of the oases and their inhabitants. I will focus on the ancient oasis Qurayyah, located in the northwest of the Arabian Peninsula, a unique example in this context. Recent research has proven that, lacking a groundwater spring, the formation of a permanent settlement in Qurayyah was made possible mainly by surface-water harvesting, with local fracture springs potentially only providing drinking water. First numerical dating results for the water harvesting system from optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of quartz confirm that the system was erected in a period characterized by changing climatic conditions from the Holocene climate optimum to the recent arid phase. This study aims to determine parameters and chronology of this sustainable irrigation system and intends to learn and understand how ancient settlers accomplished the construction of such a highly developed water supply system. To reach this research aim the irrigation system was reconstructed using field mapping and remote sensing techniques. It was shown that the reconstructed irrigation system worked as a flood irrigation system. Dams and channels were built to maximize the flooded area and at the same time to prevent catastrophic flooding under high discharge conditions. Contemporaneous historical irrigation systems in comparable size and complexity are known from Mesopotamia or Egypt. In addition to the system’s reconstruction, a new reverse engineering approach based on palaeobotany was developed for Qurayyah to reconstruct the climate conditions during the time of its operation. Compared to today’s precipitation of 32 mm per year in the research area, our results imply that the irrigation system was constructed in a time of significant climate change, because significantly higher amounts of precipitation would have been necessary to enable the cultivation of olive trees (reference plant for the reverse engineering approach), with a sufficient amount of water.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of GCM structure uncertainty on hydrological processes in an arid area of China

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 893-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonghuan Fang ◽  
Jing Yang ◽  
Yaning Chen ◽  
Zhi Li ◽  
Philippe De Maeyer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Quantifying the uncertainty sources in assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes is helpful for local water management decision-making. This paper investigated the impact of the general circulation model (GCM) structural uncertainty on hydrological processes in the Kaidu River Basin. Outputs of 21 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), representing future climate change under uncertainty, were first bias-corrected using four precipitation and three temperature methods and then used to force a well-calibrated hydrological model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) in the study area. Results show that the precipitation will increase by 3.1%–18% and 7.0%–22.5%, the temperature will increase by 2.0 °C–3.3 °C and 4.2 °C–5.5 °C and the streamflow will change by −26% to 3.4% and −38% to −7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Timing of snowmelt will shift forward by approximately 1–2 months for both scenarios. Compared to RCPs and bias correction methods, GCM structural uncertainty contributes most to streamflow uncertainty based on the standard deviation method (55.3%) while it is dominant based on the analysis of variance approach (94.1%).

scholarly journals Predicting the impact of future climate change on streamflow in the Ugam River watershed

GeoScape ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-172
Author(s):  
Umidkhon Uzbekov ◽  
Bakhtiyor Pulatov ◽  
Bokhir Alikhanov ◽  
Alim Pulatov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Water Users ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change affects the environment and human life across the planet and it is expected that the negative consequences will be large, especially in developing countries, such as Uzbekistan. The objective of this study was to predict the impact of future climate change on the streamflow of Ugam watershed (Chirchik River Basin (CRB)) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, were used as future climate records for the period 2019−2048. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for the streamflow from Ugam watershed through using the observed daily flow data from 2007 to 2011. The calibrated SWAT model was used to simulate the impact of future climate change on streamflow in the Ugam River for 2019−2048. The results show that the stream discharge is expected to decrease by approximately 42% within thirty years, with a 1.4 °C increase in temperature and 286 mm decrease in precipitation. The peak point for the future period is 40.32 m3 /s in 2037 whereas the lowest discharge, predicted for 2048, accounts for 22.54 m3 /s. Our study enables to understand the impact of climate change on water resources in the Ugam river and to increase the adaptive capacity of water users and managers in the region.

Climate change and development impacts on the sustainability of spring-fed water supply systems in the Alto Beni region of Bolivia

2012 ◽  
Vol 468-469 ◽  
pp. 120-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren M. Fry ◽  
David W. Watkins ◽  
Nathan Reents ◽  
Mark D. Rowe ◽  
James R. Mihelcic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Supply Systems ◽  
Supply Systems

scholarly journals Assessing Sustainability in Rural Water Supply Systems in Developing Countries Using a Novel Tool Based on Multi-Criteria Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 5363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Domínguez ◽  
Oviedo-Ocaña ◽  
Hurtado ◽  
Barón ◽  
Hall
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Water Supply Systems ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Rural Water Supply ◽  
Rural Water ◽  
Multi Criteria Analysis ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Supply Systems

Rural water supply systems (RWSS) in developing countries typically have deficiencies that threaten their sustainability. This research used Multi-Criteria Analysis and the Analytical Hierarchy Process to identify indicators that can be used to assess the sustainability of RWSS. The assessment tool developed is composed of 17 attributes with 95 quantifiable indicators. The tool enables the assessment of the sustainability of RWSS, using data collected through semi-structured interviews, social cartography, technical inspection, household surveys, and water monitoring. The tool was applied in a case study of a RWSS in the Andean region of Colombia, illustrating a participatory, holistic, and structured assessment that provided a single sustainability measure for the system (3.0/5.0). The tool’s completeness is represented by its extensive attributes and indicators that deliver a robust baseline on the state of a system, help identify improvement strategies, and monitor system performance over time that can assists rural community organizations with RWSS management.

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