scholarly journals Hydrological simulation of the Jialing River Basin using the MIKE SHE model in changing climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Zhang ◽  
Meng Zhang ◽  
Yongyu Song ◽  
Yuequn Lai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Hydropower Station ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mike She ◽  
Jialing River ◽  
The Future

Abstract Climate change and human activities have an important impact on the changing environment, leading to significant changes in the basin water cycle process. The Jialing River Basin, the largest tributary of the upper Yangtze River, is selected as the study area. Three different rainfall datasets, the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving (CMAD) dataset, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data, and gauged observation data, were used as inputs for the MIKE System Hydrological European (MIKE SHE) model. By comparing the simulation results driven by various meteorological data, the applicability of the MIKE SHE model at four stations is evaluated, and the sensitivity and uncertainty of model parameters are analyzed. Meanwhile, the impact of large hydropower stations on the runoff of the Jialing River Basin is assessed, and the influence of human activities on the runoff change is determined. The future climate change of the watershed was analyzed by using the typical representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Based on the MIKE SHE model, the runoff of the Jialing River Basin in the future climate scenario is predicted, and the corresponding response of the Jialing River Basin is analyzed quantitatively. The results show that the CMAD data-driven model has better Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and correlation coefficient for each period. By analyzing the influence of the hydropower station on the runoff process at the outlet of the basin, it is found that the hydropower station has a certain regulating effect on the runoff process at the outlet of the basin. In addition, the RCP4.5 scenario is more consistent with the future scenario, indicating that the Jialing River Basin will become colder and drier.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

2015 ◽  
Vol 368 ◽  
pp. 257-262
Author(s):  
K. Lin ◽  
W. Zhai ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
Z. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
South China ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Dongjiang River ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Future Climate Change Projections on Streamflow Hydrology and Water Availability over Upper Xijiang River Basin, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 3671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Touseef ◽  
Lihua Chen ◽  
Tabinda Masud ◽  
Aziz Khan ◽  
Kaipeng Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Xijiang River ◽  
Geological Conditions ◽  
The Future

Hydrological models are widely applied for simulating complex watershed processes and directly linking meteorological, topographical, land-use, and geological conditions. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated at two monitoring stations, which improved model performance and increased the reliability of flow predictions in the Upper Xijiang River Basin. This study evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow and water yield of the Upper Xijiang River Basin using Arc-SWAT. The model was calibrated (1991–1997) and validated (1998–2001) using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm (SUFI-2). Model calibration and validation suggest a good match between the measured and simulated monthly streamflow, indicating the applicability of the model for future daily streamflow predictions. Large negative changes of low flows are projected under future climate scenarios, exhibiting a 10% and 30% decrease in water yield over the watershed on a monthly scale. Overall, findings generally indicated that winter flows are expected to be affected the most, with a maximum impact during the January–April period, followed by the wet monsoon season in the May–September period. Water balance components of the Upper Xijiang River Basin are expected to change significantly due to the projected climate change that, in turn, will seriously affect the water resources and streamflow patterns in the future. Thus, critical problems, such as ground water shortages, drops in agricultural crop yield, and increases in domestic water demand are expected at the Xijiang River Basin.

scholarly journals Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedram Mahdavi ◽  
Hossein Ghorbanizadeh Kharazi ◽  
Hossein Eslami ◽  
Narges Zohrabi ◽  
Majid Razaz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Global warming affected by human activities causes changes in the regime of rivers. Rivers are one of the most vital sources that supply fresh water. Therefore, management, planning, and proper use of rivers will be crucial for future climate change conditions. This study investigated the monitoring of hydrological drought in a future period to examine the impact of climate change on the discharging flow of the Zard River basin in Iran. Zard River is an important supplier of fresh and agricultural water in a vast area of Khuzestan province in Iran. A continuous rainfall-runoff model based on Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) algorithm was applied to simulate the discharge flow under 10 scenarios (obtained from LARS-WG.6 software) of future climate change. Then, the Stream-flow Drought Index (SDI) and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) were calculated for each climate change scenario for the future period (2041–2060). The results of the meteorological drought assessment showed that near normal and moderate droughts had higher proportions among other drought conditions. Moreover, the hydrological drought assessment showed the occurrence of two new droughts (severe and extreme) conditions for the future period (2041–2060) that has never happened in the past (1997–2016).

scholarly journals Estimating the Responses of Hydrological and Sedimental Processes to Future Climate Change in Watersheds with Different Landscapes in the Yellow River Basin, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (20) ◽  
pp. 4054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li ◽  
Sha ◽  
Zhao ◽  
Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Yellow River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Sediment Yields ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Yellow River Basin

This study concerned the sediment issue of the Yellow River basin. The responses of hydrological and sedimental processes to future climate change in two upland watersheds with different dominant landscapes were estimated. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios with different radiative forcing levels were considered. The outputs of eleven Global Climate Models (GCMs) were used to represent the future climate status of the 2050s and 2070s, and an ensemble means was achieved to avoid uncertainty. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was employed to downscale the outputs of GCMs for future site-scale daily weather data estimations. The Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) model was employed to model the streamflow and sediment yields under various scenarios and periods. The results showed that there would be generally hotter and wetter weather conditions in the future. Increased erosion and sediment yields could be found in the study area, with lesser increments in sediment in woodland than in cultivated field. The peak of sediment would appear in the 2050s, and integrated measures for sediment control should be implemented to reduce erosion and block delivery. The multi-model approach proposed in this study had reliable performance and could be applied in other similar areas with modest data conditions.

Future Climate Change Projections of the Kabul River Basin Using a Multi-model Ensemble of High-Resolution Statistically Downscaled Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 477-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Ahsan Ali Bokhari ◽  
Burhan Ahmad ◽  
Jahangir Ali ◽  
Shakeel Ahmad ◽  
Haris Mushtaq ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Kabul River

scholarly journals Caring for the future: Climate change and intergenerational responsibility in China and the UK

Geoforum ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 105 ◽  
pp. 158-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristina Diprose ◽  
Chen Liu ◽  
Gill Valentine ◽  
Robert M. Vanderbeck ◽  
Katie McQuaid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Uk

scholarly journals Heatwaves in the Future Warmer Climate of South Africa

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 712
Author(s):  
Innocent Mbokodo ◽  
Mary-Jane Bopape ◽  
Hector Chikoore ◽  
Francois Engelbrecht ◽  
Nthaduleni Nethengwe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
South African Society ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
The Future

Weather and climate extremes, such as heat waves (HWs), have become more frequent due to climate change, resulting in negative environmental and socioeconomic impacts in many regions of the world. The high vulnerability of South African society to the impacts of warm extreme temperatures makes the study of the effect of climate change on future HWs necessary across the country. We investigated the projected effect of climate change on future of South Africa with a focus on HWs using an ensemble of regional climate model downscalings obtained from the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) for the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099, with 1983–2012 as the historical baseline. Simulations were performed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration) and 8.5 (high GHG concentration) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We found that the 30-year period average maximum temperatures may rise by up to 6 °C across much of the interior of South Africa by 2070–2099 with respect to 1983–2012, under a high GHG concentration. Simulated HW thresholds for all ensemble members were similar and spatially consistent with observed HW thresholds. Under a high GHG concentration, short lasting HWs (average of 3–4 days) along the coastal areas are expected to increase in frequency in the future climate, however the coasts will continue to experience HWs of relatively shorter duration compared to the interior regions. HWs lasting for shorter duration are expected to be more frequent when compared to HWs of longer durations (over two weeks). The north-western part of South Africa is expected to have the most drastic increase in HWs occurrences across the country. Whilst the central interior is not projected to experience pronounced increases in HW frequency, HWs across this region are expected to last longer under future climate change. Consistent patterns of change are projected for HWs under moderate GHG concentrations, but the changes are smaller in amplitude. Increases in HW frequency and duration across South Africa may have significant impacts on human health, economic activities, and livelihoods in vulnerable communities.

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